domingo, 15 de marzo de 2015

¿Dónde está Vlad?

Hace varios días que el presidente de Rusia y líder del mundo libre, Vladimir Putin, no realiza apariciones en público. Las especulaciones al respecto son ya casi salvajes: enfermedad terminal, asesinato, golpe de estado en Moscú, etc. Todo puede suceder bajo la mirada atenta del Imperio del Caos. Acá posteamos unas breves reflexiones de nuestro “rusólogo” de cabecera, el anónimo bloguero conocido como “El Peregrino”. Lo que sigue viene de su sitio web The Vineyard of the Saker (

Título: Rumors about Putin

Texto: Moscow appears calm. I even checked a few well-placed webcams.  Not a single semi-credible Russian sources confirms Putin’s death or overthrow.  Not a single contact of mine is sounding the alarm.  No less importantly, the rumors range from death-by-cancer “caused by plastic surgery” to palace coup supported by the Orthodox Church, to Shoigu taking power.  When I read that nonsense I am not impressed. One Swiss website mentions that Putin’s alleged sweetheart – Alina Kabaeva – is about to deliver his baby.  Maybe, I don’t know.

What I do know is that a coup would be quasi-impossible to pull off, and if that happened 85% plus of the Russian population would be up in arms and *extremely* mad.  So if taking power in Russia is extremely hard, keeping it would be even harder.  There is no way the Russians today would accept a junta like the one in Kiev, not even a “patriotic” one.

I have been wrong so often that I am afraid of being too categorical, but I have to be honest above all else and this is why I will say that I personally rate the possibility of a coup against Putin as exactly *zero*.  I sure hope I am not wrong this time around…

Putin sick?  Yes, maybe.  With the flu.  Or even pneumonia.  Exhaustion is a terrible thing for the immune system.  He might have had some minor surgery of some kind.  I wouldn’t know.  But dead?  I doubt it.  Of course, this is not impossible (it never is), but I see NO reason to suspect that this has happened.

Busy with the Ukrainian crisis?  Yes, very possible.  Kiev has just basically reneged on all of the Minsk 2 Agreement and Russia has to prepare for the worst.

How about “busy with the crisis AND sick with the flu”?  That seems the best explanation to me.

I have no crystal ball, no special connection to the Kremlin, and no way to prove a negative. But at least so far, I see no evidence of something serious happening with Putin.

Let’s take a deep breath and wait.  I believe that Putin is due to make an appearance on Monday.  Let’s see if he does, and if he does not, how Peskov will explain it.

Cheers,  The Saker

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