jueves, 17 de noviembre de 2016

Nace el mundo multipolar


La nota que sigue es de Federico Pieraccini y fue publicada ayer en el sitio web Strategic Culture Foundation. El tema es el significado de la derrota de Hillary Clinton (y todo lo que ella representa) en el contexto de una declinante hegemonía estadounidense (occidental, en realidad). El análisis peca de optimista y abunda en frases como que "todo cambió para siempre" y cosas así. Habrá que ver:


Título: Will Donald Trump End The American Unipolar Moment?

Epígrafe: We are facing an unprecedented breakthrough: a global change that potentially could definitively overwhelm the unipolar world order created after the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and sent into overdrive by the 9/11 so-called War on Terror. The victory of Donald Trump is the most emblematic representation of a total repudiation by the American population of the so-called establishment and its interests.

Texto: The American elections have ended with an unexpected verdict that has confounded all forecasts. Trump won the election in the United States, home and capital of the western system, redefining the logic by which a President is normally elected. Largely for this reason, it is an extraordinarily important victory. All the apparatus of American power, such as the media, politicians, experts and intellectuals, were not enough to stop the people from expressing a vote that is more of an explicit protest.

The victory of Trump also spells the end of the Bush and Clinton dynasties, as well as the unexpected conclusion of Obama's mandate, the betrayal of which is the biggest in US history. Elected to solve problems such as inequality, racial divisions, poverty and social injustice, he failed on all fronts, becoming one of the major causes of a dissenting vote in favor of Trump. Barack Obama has ironically been one of Donald Trump’s biggest sponsors. Obama’s voters in 2008 and 2012 were not deceived by Clinton’s promises, and after voting for Sanders as a last hope, they preferred to stay home or even vote for Trump as an ultimate expression of contempt for the status quo represented by Democrats, Republicans, and by the Washington establishment. Above all, it represented the victory and the will of the working class, tired of their economic condition worsening over more than three decades.

The victory of Brexit in England, Duterte in the Philippines, the 2013 Five Star movement in Italy, the phenomena of Le Pen in France, Syriza in Greece, and the continuously rejected European treaties -- all these are part of the same theme connecting different voting issues. The continuous rejection of the idea of globalization and globalism has occupied the majority of the people. Identified as the great evil, it is considered the main cause for the continuing need for governments to subordinate national interests for international interests. This inevitably leads to a deadly embrace with an international model based on Wall Street finance, the main cause of the 2008 financial crisis, compounded by American wars around the world, a source of insecurity and prolonged terrorism.

The root of this pushback is the concept of multipolarity. In a unipolar model, power and the money is concentrated in the hands of a tiny percentage, producing an imbalance of wellbeing that is the base of common frustration of Western citizens. The success of the multipolar model derives primarily from the ability to choose without without facing unilateral imposition. Whether it is leaving the EU or the victory of a candidate not linked to the political establishment, multipolarity is the most effective way to respect the popular will, a huge difference when compared to unipolarity, where people are left with no alternative. We have been transitioning for nearly a decade into the digital domain, a world where an infinite range of options is available to achieve one’s objectives.

In the real world, the unipolar approach is outmoded and inadequate, creating the need for any alternative proposal, whether it be Trump or Brexit. We cannot otherwise explain why in recent years anyone who proposes an anti-establishment model in Europe or in the United States is considered a credible alternative. It is not the message one conveys that is important, it is simply enough to be something different from the status quo, simply an alternative.

The power of finance has devoured the few rights left for people, giving priority to interests whose greed is insatiable and has led many Western nations to the brink of collapse in the financial crisis of 2008. Since then, nearly 10 years later, nothing has changed, and people’s economic well-being has declined alarmingly, reaching unprecedented levels. The promises made by politicians after the 2008 crisis have been broken, and the middle class and poor have continued to pay for it all, generating a level of frustration that is expressed at the ballot boxes, with votes for Brexit or for Trump in the United States.

In addition to the economic situation, numerous wars have succeeded in antagonising Americans, with costs nearing six trillion dollars serving to further erode the confidence of the average voter in the Washington establishment. While the average American voter does not care about the foreign policy of their country, if the results are an increase in terrorism, a decrease in domestic investment, creating a general feeling of helplessness, then US foreign policy becomes something harmful, unnecessary or even counterproductive to the American voter.

It is amazing to see how in the most recent US elections all these considerations have become central in Trump’s arguments. For the first time in US history the media and establishment’s one-sided narrative has been broken. What has been shown is that a presidential campaign can be ran independently of the Democrats or Republicans on issues revolving around Wall Street, the Washington Consensus, exporting democracy, and the defamation of geopolitical opponents. For the first time, the vision of a unipolar American hegemony has been defeated by a multipolar vision of reality, a vision that simply places an alternative to the status quo of the past 25 years. The people were offered, first in the Republican primaries and then the election, the opportunity to express a vote that seemed more a referendum with a question that essentially amounted to: “Are you happy with your current condition?” The answer was a huge middle finger to the establishment expressed through the Trump vote.

Clinton, being a product of the establishment and representing the status quo, did not offer what the majority of Americans wanted, namely a break with the elites. Even if unconsciously, the majority of Americans rejected in their vote the unipolar economic, financial and military model, giving the rest of the world an unexpected hope for change.

The United States woke up the day after the elections with a more divided country than ever before, a reflection of a broader division that runs through the West. These are the consequences of a changing world that is drifting away from a unipolar vision with its one financial, economic and military system represented by Washington and Brussels. Back on the old continent, growing nationalist sentiment, the rejection of European institutions and the Brexit vote should have rang alarm bells for the elite some time ago. The US elections have confirmed that the globalist establishment both in Europe and America are living in their own world. They are completely detached from normal people, and the system they relied upon to influence and manipulate, with the hope of extending the unipolar domain (economic, military and financial), is no longer effective.

While globalization has brought wealth to the elite, it has also allowed the spread of the Internet, which is becoming more and more effective as a mass-communication tool. The concept of multipolarity is intrinsic to the Internet: everyone can open their own blog, write there own opinion, and spread it to millions of people, influencing the overall narrative. The alternative information, when printed on paper, was reserved for a niche of the population. Now such diffusion of information has become mainstream, relegating the corporate media to an increasingly narrow segment of the population. Compared to 30 years ago, the Internet has reversed the paradigm. Think of yourself: you read this analysis with, I hope, a sense of trust and belief that this information cannot be obtained from CNN, Fox News or the BBC. This is the true and genuine revolution. Trump has been able to interpret these feelings in a masterly manner, collecting all the major frustrations of the American people towards the elite, and making them his own. He has combined his personal passion into an impossible challenge, providing the desperate needs of the people with a voice “at the top” that will scream and yell on their behalf. The anger and the political incorrectness of Trump have been interpreted in a positive way by voters, almost like a concrete gesture of dissatisfaction with the elites of Wall Street, Washington and the giant American corporations.

Trump represents the first step, after Brexit, of the West recognizing a reality that is already multipolar. The American model based on the dollar is in trouble as a result of international institutions related to BRICS. The AIIB created by Beijing, and the IMF’s moves to include the yuan in an international basket, are another indicator. Countries not aligned with US desires, such as China, Russia and Iran, have been joining forces over the last few years to build an alternative economic and financial system to that of the dollar and federal reserve, undermining the US hegemony that is guaranteed by the petrodollar. In the military sphere, NATO is no longer the only global power, and the current situation in the Middle East is a reflection of this. The involvement of Moscow and the alliance with Iran have for the first time prevented the complete destruction of a country like Syria, providing an alternative ending to that experienced by Iraq in 2003. All signs are that America's unipolar moment is gone forever.

The last blow was the political change following the economic and military ones; first in Europe, with the decreasing popularity of politicians, an anti-establishment expression; then with the exit of Britain from Europe; and finally with Trump’s victory in the United States.

From the point of view of national and international policies, Trump’s triumph is yet to be tested and confirmed. As a result, the international balance could yet remain intact. The world is at its biggest crossroad in modern history. The election in the United States, caused by a spreading multipolar contagion, will eventually affect and change forever the international relations of Brussels and Washington. While the rest of the world is already fully part of this epoch-making revolution, the elites of Europe and the US continue to show that they want to fight to the end to reject the new advancing world order.

The American and European oligarchy is faced with a choice: either declare war on everyone and everything, including their own people, or embrace this global shift and try and carve out their own space within it. The challenge is to recognize and accept not being in absolute control of the levers of power but now having to share power with other centers of power like Moscow, Beijing and Tehran. It is a difficult task but certainly not impossible.

Trump offers the possibility of real change in international relations, and the words expressed by leaders like Xi and Putin are the first signs of a real attempt to change 20 years of impositions from Washington’s unipolar domination over the rest of the planet.

On November 9, 2016, much of the world's population, ideally, has united in one voice and with all its energy declared aloud to Washington and to all the systems of power that have made our planet insecure and an economic disaster that enough is enough!

After Brexit and the victory of Trump, the Euro-American elites are faced with a choice that will shape the coming decades: either accept the coming multipolarity and decide to work together with other nations of the world, or descend into prolonged conflict. No one can rule out an attempt to sabotage Brexit or the assassination of Trump, especially if he decides to fulfil his promises. But one thing is certain: they will never be able to stop the progress of these inevitable changes.

If there is something clear from Trump’s victory, it is how an important part of Europe and America’s population has forever broken out of the isolation bubble where it was confined by the elite. They have understood that what has been told to them for decades is false, biased and completely against their interests. The world has changed forever, and there is nothing that the promoters of globalism can do to prevent it.



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