martes, 19 de julio de 2016

Turquía: primeras consecuencias

Comienzan a verse consecuencias directas y concretas en la Turquía post-golpe. Por ejemplo, cincuenta mil personas separadas de sus cargos previos, ya sea por detenciones, suspensiones o despidos. Pero eso es sólo el comienzo. La nota que sigue fue posteada hoy en Moon of Alabama y comenta varios de estos cambios: 

Título: Coup Defeat Hastens Change In Turkey's Foreign Policy

Texto: The after-coup purges in Turkey continue. The Erdogan administration is firing any public servant who might, just might, not agree with its policies. Today the education ministry suspended 15,200 teachers and education workers. The licenses of 21,000 teacher at private schools were revoked. The Higher Education Commission asked 1577 university deans to resign. The Religious Affairs Directorate sacked 492 personnel, including imams and muftis. The Turkish Prime Ministry sacked 257 of its personnel in the post-coup crackdown. The Turkish secret service M.I.T suspended some 130 of its spies. In totalnearly 50,000 people have been suspended, fired or detained by now. Most of these had nothing to do with the botched military coup against the government.

These losses of knowledge and experience, and the fear of those who for now stay, will take some toll on the functioning of the Turkish government and its security services. Turkey will turn inward while Erdogan will use his current popularity to remake the society in his image.

The expansive Turkish plans and projects in Syria and in Iraq will be cut back. Signs of this were already evident before the coup was launched and defeated. (Indeed some suggested that these changes were a reason for the coup.) The coup will reinforce and hasten the changes in Turkey's foreign policy.

Turkey pulled back the military forces it had illegally stationed in Bashiqa near Mosul in Iraq. Earlier the Iraqi government as well as Russia had protested against these forces on Iraqi ground but to no avail. Now they silently retreat. The Iranian agency FARS, though not always reliable, reported yesterday that all Turkish agents in Aleppo province in Syria were called back to Turkey. During the coup event something curious happened to one important person:

The top counter-terrorism official responsible for Turkey’s campaign against Islamic State did go to a “meeting” at the presidential palace in Ankara. He was later found with his hands tied behind his back, shot in the neck, according to a senior official.

Someone used the coup trouble to off the top Turkish ISIS contact. How very convenient. This is the only reported casualty at the presidential palace I have heard of. Who might have had an interest in removing this witness of Turkish relations with ISIS? Could this be some "cleaning the record" before making nice again with Syria and its allies? There is a second data-point that might have such a motive. The Erdogan government is now accusing "Gülenists" for the trouble with Russia and claims that the pilot who shot down a Russian jet also took part in the coup. Another person that stands in the way of better relations with Russia is thereby now imprisoned and moved out of the diplomatic picture.

Russia as well as Iran have loudly supported the Erdogan government against the coup plotters. Erdogan replied in kind:

Sam Tamiz @SamTamiz: In Rouhani's call to Erdogan yesterday, Erdogan said #Turkey committed to 'join hands' with #Iran & #Russia to resolve regional conflicts

In early August Erdogan and Putin will meet in person. All these little dots point to a new direction in Turkish foreign policies. This is one of the Three western worries about Turkey namely "Turkey’s ideological drift away from the West."

The former Turkish colonel Hasan Atilla Ugur, in talk with an Iranian news site, claimed that the coup was launched by the CIA directed Gülenists to prevent such change in Turkish foreign policy and the move towards Iran and Russia. (The preacher Fetullah Gülen, accused of orchestrating the coup, is known to be extremely anti-Iran.)

A trusted mouthpiece of Erdoagn, the somewhat lunatic chief editor of YeniSafak, ?brahim Karagül, accuses the U.S. of attempting to murder Erdogan:

I am saying it loud and clear: The U.S. administration directly planned to kill the president of the Republic of Turkey and implemented this plan. The operation aimed at martyring President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Marmaris was activated through Gülen's terrorists, the assassination team.

I repeat: The attack aimed at martyring Erdogan was planned by the U.S., in the U.S., directly through Gülen's terrorists and the instructions were given by them.

The Grand National Assembly of Turkey was bombed by a schizophrenic under U.S. protection. Bombing the people's Parliament is declaring war against the people. This attack, like no other in history, was made by the terrorists of a man protected by the U.S.

That Erdogan turns away from "west" and towards Iran and Russia does not yet mean peace for Syria. It will take a while for Erdogan to fully come around. It will be difficult and take months to neutralize all the fanatic proxy forces Turkey introduced to the battlefield. There will be resistance in Turkey against leaving Syria alone. Some of the Syrian "moderate rebels" will turn their wrath against Turkey itself as the Islamic State has already done. The U.S. will of course also continue to intervene no matter what. Over all though this change of attitude in Ankara is welcome news for Damascus.

If Erdogan wants to leave the western realm and gain support from his eastern neighbors he will have to pay a price. Peace in Syria is the one part of it on which Iran, Russia and China will insist.

There will be a Turkish National Security Council meeting on Wednesday after which a big announcement will be made. What might it be? Will Turkey leave NATO or will the move be of lesser significance?

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