jueves, 21 de julio de 2016

El temita ese de Incirlik


Si estás nervioso por lo de Turquía, lo que sigue te va a encantar. Sí, me refiero al temita ese de las 50 a 90 bombas termonucleares de hidrógeno B1 almacenadas en la base militar turca de Incirlik. Si se va de la OTAN, esta es la gran oportunidad que tiene Turquía de convertirse en potencia nuclear por sí sola. ¿Cómo? Se afana las bombitas de Incirlik, obvio! ¿Querés ponerte más nervioso todavía? Ponele que la cosa se desmadra, Turquía entra en guerra civil, y de golpe toman la base los chicos de Al Qaeda o ISIS (miles de los cuales ya deben estar en Turquía, rajando de los bombardeos rusos en Siria). ¿Te imaginás a un nene del ISIS con 50 a 90 B1 en la mochila? 

El coronel (RE) Pat Lang, estadounidense, mantiene un blog llamado Sic Semper Tyrannis. Ayer y anteayer posteó sobre el tema. ¿Su sugerencia al Pentágono? Saquen YA las bombas de Incirlik!!! Pasemos a las notas:


Título: Our hydrogen bombs or Erdogan's?

Texto


"Erdogan to announce tomorrow major policy change after the National Security Council (MGK). Could be something drastic, like leaving NATO, or giving up the EU membership application. Or even maybe declaring himself president for life, effectively taking over the entire state apparatus. Or even disbanding the parliament, and calling for a new referendum and election."  
--A Turk

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"As of 2005, 180 tactical B61 nuclear bombs of the 480 U.S. nuclear weapons believed to be deployed in Europe fall under the nuclear sharing arrangement.[7] The weapons are stored within a vault in hardened aircraft shelters, using the USAF WS3 Weapon Storage and Security System. The delivery warplanes used are F-16s and Panavia Tornados"  
--Wiki on Nuclear Sharing

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"The WS3 system consists of a Weapons Storage Vault (WSV) and electronic monitoring and control systems. One vault can hold up to four nuclear weapons and in the lowered position provides ballistic protection through its hardened lid and reinforced sidewalls.[1] The WS3 system allowed storage directly underneath the aircraft intended to carry the bombs. The location inside the aircraft shelter increased the weapon survivability in case of any kind of attack and prevent monitoring of preparations to use the weapons. The electronic systems include various classified sensors, electronic data-transmission and security equipment such as video, motion detectors, closed circuit TV coupled with thermal imaging devices. These facilities enabled remote controlled weapon safety and made the large security forces obsolete."  
--Wiki on weapons storage  and security system


"A Turk," whose words are quoted above is a long term commentator on SST.  I consider him to be a good source.

There are between 50 and 90 B-61 variable yield thermonuclear weapons  (hydrogen bombs) stored at Incirlik Air base in SE Turkey.  This base was built by the US starting in 1951 but it has always been a TURKISH base with US tenants.   Some of the weapons are earmarked for US use and some for Turkish use against US/NATO agreed on targets if they are ever released by the US National Command Authority.  The weapons are stored there in a semi-automatic system in vaults under the delivery aircraft.  Small point - There are no US delivery suitable aircraft now stationed at Incirlik.  They would have to be brought in from somewhere else to mate them with the bombs.  At the same time, the Turkish Air Force no longer has nuclear weapons certified pilots.


Questions:

1.  What are the targets for which these weapons would possibly be used? Are there any?  Really?

2.  How firmly are the American airmen at the base in control of these weapons, weapons situated on a foreign base?

3.  Can the weapons be disabled, perhaps remotely?

Let us say, for the sake of argument, that Erdogan controlled forces make a move to seize control of the hydrogen bombs on THEIR BASE.  What could the US do about it?

IMO the US should remove the weapons or disable them as soon as possible.


***


Título: "How Turkey Could Become the Next Pakistan" ISW. Nuclear Safety at Incirlik - New Yorker

Texto: 


"The failed coup attempt by elements of the Turkish Armed Forces on July 15 will enable President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to establish himself as an authoritarian ruler in Turkey. His priorities in the next few months will be to solidify the loyalty of the Turkish military establishment and complete the constitutional reform necessary to replace Turkey’s parliamentary democracy with an executive presidency, his longstanding goal. A post-coup Erdogan is much less likely to submit to American pressure without major returns. Erdogan immediately demanded the extradition of political rival Fethullah Gulen from the U.S., accusing Gulen of plotting the coup and condemning the U.S. for harboring him. Erdogan will likely deprioritize the fight against ISIS, undermining the counter-ISIS mission in Syria, as he focuses on consolidating power. He may even revoke past concessions to the U.S., including permission to use Turkey’s Incirlik airbase for counter-ISIS operations."  
--ISW

*******

"With a few hours and the right tools and training, you could open one of NATO’s nuclear-weapons storage vaults, remove a weapon, and bypass the PAL inside it. Within seconds, you could place an explosive device on top of a storage vault, destroy the weapon, and release a lethal radioactive cloud. NATO’s hydrogen bombs are still guarded by the troops of their host countries."  
--New Yorker


These are very interesting pieces of work exploring the prospects for developments in Erdogan's Turkey. 

IMO the Turkish military will soon  be reduced to a quivering mass of fearful people looking over their shoulders while waiting for dismissal or worse.  This will produce a security vacuum in the country that is bound to be filled by Islamists.

Jennifer Cafarella raises the possibility that Erdogan will turn to AQ seeking an ally against his internal and external adversaries.  If this occurs then the safety of American assets in Turkey will be severely compromised

I will say once again that the US nuclear weapons at Incirlik air base should be removed while we still have the ability to do so without having to fight to remove them.

Think of the potential for blackmail inherent in the possession of one or more of these weapons in the hands of our enemies.

They couldn't arm it?  Do you really want to bet on that? 

http://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/how-turkey-could-become-next-pakistan

http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-h-bombs-in-turkey

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