jueves, 4 de junio de 2015

Las guerras continúan


Sigue la Guerra en el mundo, puntual y mortal como la conocemos desde hace ya catorce años. Sigue en Medio Oriente y ya se introdujo en Europa. A continuación posteamos dos notas referidas a la situación en Ucrania y Siria. La primera noticia salió hoy en Russia Insider:


Título: On Eve of EU Vote to Extend Russian Sanctions War Returns to Ukraine

Epígrafe: Resumption of fighting on eve of EU vote on extending sanctions against Russia is a predictable action given the nature of the Ukrainian regime and the multiple crises it faces.

Texto: Predictably and right on cue, as the date of the review of the EU’s sanctions on Russia approaches, there is a major spike in the fighting in eastern Ukraine.

This will come as a surprise to no one.

As we have repeatedly said, the Ukrainians are not genuinely interested in implementing the terms of the Minsk Memorandum. 

Those terms, if implemented, would spell the end of the Maidan project. Not surprisingly the Ukrainian government, which owes its entire existence to the Maidan project, will not willingly let it fail and will turn to war to prevent it doing so.

As we have also repeatedly said, recent indications Western support for Ukraine may be weakening simply give Ukraine more reason to turn to war in the hope this will rally Western support.

The continuing rapid decline of Ukraine’s economy, and the growing unpopularity of Ukraine’s leaders, also provides a further incentive to turn to war.  For what is ultimately a mobilisation regime, war is always the most obvious way to rally domestic support.

The timing of the latest outbreak — close to an EU vote to renew the sanctions — is not intended to prevent the sanctions being lifted. 

No one — certainly not the Russians — ever seriously expected the sanctions to be lifted this June. The sanctions would have continued whether there was fighting in eastern Ukraine or not.

The EU vote on the sanctions is however useful to Kiev. It enables Kiev to maximise its political support in the West and mutes criticism of its turn to war.  
Kiev knows those Western countries (such as Germany) that oppose lifting sanctions will be forced to support Kiev if fighting now resumes — if only for the short term — so as to justify their opposition to lifting sanctions.

The diplomatic moves and counter-moves should not however obscure the larger picture. Given the nature of the government in Kiev, a resumption of the fighting was at some point inevitable. The late spring or summer was always the likeliest time. That is what is now happening.


***

La segunda noticia es del sitio Moon of Alabama, y se refiere  una fase de repliegue de las fuerzas armadas sirias en torno a la defensa de los núcleos urbanos clave de ese país:


Título: Damascus Goes Into Defense Mode

Texto: When the enemy with overwhelming numbers is attacking in full force it makes sense to retreat to the best defensible lines and to protect only the most valuable assets.

The parallel onslaught of U.S., Turkey and GCC supported al-Qaeda "moderate rebels" and Islamic State Jihadists necessitates that the Syrian government concentrates its capabilities and assets and moves into a defensive stand.
This is not a strategic change of course or a sign of weakness but a tactical move. To sacrifice exhausted army units in further defending outlying and thereby indefensible minor parts of the country would simply be unwise. The Syrian government is still strong and at least 75% of the Syrian people within Syria are under its realm. The war on Syria will go on for years and there will come other phases when the Syrian army will again go on attack.

Some 10,000 al-Qaeda fighters, a third of them foreigners, crossed from Turkey with new U.S. supplied TOW anti-tank weapons and overran the Syrian defenses in the governate and city of Idleb. The move was unexpected in its size and force. The Syrian government recognized that more resources would be required to counter the attack and dispatched officials to Iran and Russia to request more help.

Iran released a new $1 billion loan and is also sending some 15,000 additional paramilitary fighters from Iraq and Iran to support the defenses of Damascus, Homs and the Latakia coast area. Hizbullah is engaged in the Qalamon mountains next to Lebanon and in the process of mopping up al-Nusra and other Jihadist groups in the area. Russia has publicly announced to further support the Syrian government. It is not yet known what exactly Russia is planning to do but we can expect to see more and newer weapons delivered to the Syrian army and air force.

Meanwhile the U.S. propaganda machine is working hard on three points. The first is to depict the Syrian government as no longer supported by its people and to sow doubt about its alliances with Iran and Russia. With the new support coming now that line is temporarily inoperable but will be revived when convenient.

The second propaganda stunt is to deny that Jabhat al-Nusra is a real operative part of Al-Qeada with the long-term aim to attack the "west". This claim is necessary to justify further U.S. support to the Nusra led campaigns in Idleb and elsewhere. There were rumors about al-Nusra rejecting al-Qaeda and attempts to invent some internal strife about the question. An AlJazeerah Arabic softball interview with Nusra chief Jolani was arranged to soften its image. But Jolani did not perform as AlJazeerah sponsor Qatar expected. He again declared full allegiance to al-Qaeda central and his obedience to al-Qeada chief Ayman al-Zawahiri. Nusra is thereby not "al-Qaeda aligned" or "al-Qaeda linked" or an "al-Qaeda franchise". Jabhat al-Nusra is al-Qaeda. Jolani left no doubt about it.

The third and most stupid propaganda claim is an alleged cooperation of the Syrian government with the Islamic State. "Look, we planned this big operation against Assad in Aleppo and Assad bombed us. The next day the Islamic State attacked us and Assad did not bomb them. See, he did not help us. He must be with the Islamic State." Some stupidity really has no bounds. Here is how well the Syrian army and the Islamic State really "cooperate":

Islamic State bombers have blown up about a dozen explosive-packed trucks at Syrian army checkpoints around the government-held northeastern city of Hasaka city over the past five days, the city governor said on Thursday. 
...
"More than thirteen explosive-laden vehicles have attacked army checkpoints and sowed terror and fear among citizens," City Governor Mohammad Zaal al Ali told state television by telephone from inside the city.

The fighting in Syria is now between three parties. Al-Qaeda terrorists supported by U.S. aligned external states, the Syrian government and its allies and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. All three are fighting each other but the Syrian government hopes that the fighting between Nusra and the Islamic State will intensify and diminish its two enemies. It sees the Islamic State not as its own problem but as a problem for the whole world. It will now go into a defensive mode and protect its core assets. Other entities will have to attack the Islamic State. The bet is that the Islamic State will, probably soon, directly attack the "west" and/or Gulf entities and that these attacks will result in others taking care of the Islamic State problem.


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