martes, 30 de junio de 2015

Grecia: Todo puede suceder



Sí, chicos: como la canción de George Harrison. Absolutamente Todo puede suceder. O, si prefieren este título del gran Elvis Costello, a partir de ahora Accidents can happen. Lo que sigue es una serie de comentarios aparecidos hace un rato en Zero Hedge en relación con el default griego, que a partir de las 0 hs del nuevo día (de ese país) ya es oficial. Se trata del mayor default al que debe enfrentarse el FMI en toda su historia. Won´t be pretty, kids

Le deseamos fuerza, coraje y tesón al pueblo griego. No va a ser fácil aguantar lo que viene, gente. Primero los van a hacer sentirse como los leprosos de Europa. Después van a hacer todo lo posible para que la necesaria reestructuración de la deuda que se viene sea una burla. Los van a joder con palo y zanahoria durante años, chicos. Los Brodas, los Melconianes, Artanas, Cavallos y Danielitos Marx griegos van a insistir diariamente en la necesidad de "volver al mundo" de los mercados y demás. Toda la chusma neoliberal de las consultoras y fundaciones les va a salir con todo tipo de teorías. No aflojen. Que se jodan lo más posible. Aguanten.

Finalmente, nos quedamos con un resumen brillante de lo escrito: el dibujito de acá arriba. ¿Eurodominó a la vista? Seguirían Portugal, España, Italia, Gran Bretaña, Francia y, finalmente, Alemania. Pasemos a la nota:


Título: Greece Becomes First Developed Country To Default To The IMF

Texto: And just as promised earlier in the week, Greece has now passed the midnight deadline for repayment of the €1.6 billion bundled loans due to the IMF and in thus in default.

Yes we are fully aware that using the pejorative term 'default' makes us members of the ignorati, but what else do you call it when you fail to pay back a contracted debt in a timely fashion? (and don't say 'arrears') Anything else is semantics.

*IMF SAYS GREECE FAILED TO MAKE PAYMENT DUE TUESDAY
*IMF TO CONSIDER GREEK REQUEST FOR PAYMENT DELAY IN DUE COURSE
*IMF BOARD INFORMED THAT GREECE IS NOW IN ARREARS

“I can also confirm that the IMF received a request today from the Greek authorities for an extension of Greece’s repayment obligation that fell due today, which will go to the IMF’s Executive Board in due course,” IMF spokesman Gerry Rice says in e-mailed statement.

This is the first time an advanced economy has defaulted to The IMF and is by far the largest default The IMF has ever faced.


AP reports,

Greece's international bailout formally expires, country loses access to existing financing.


What happens next:


And therefore Greece is poised between remaining a member of the eurozone or leaving it. 

In fact, as WSJ's Stephen Fidler explains, there are five possible future currency arrangements for Greece. Here they are...


1. Greece stays in the eurozone: This is the option likely to cause the smallest short-term disruption to the Greek economy.  The Greek central bank would retain access to liquidity from the European Central Bank, and the Greek banks would stay on life support. This looks increasingly likely to be accompanied by some kind of further negotiated debt relief. To get it, Greece would almost certainly have to agree to more conditions of the sort successive Greek governments have found it hard to accept.


2. Greece keeps the euro, but sits outside the eurozone: Jacob Funk Kierkegaard of the Peterson Institute for International Economics in Washington calls this the “Montenegro option” and argues this is the most likely outcome should Greece exit the eurozone.  This would not be “a new drachma, but Montenegro—i.e. Greece becomes just another relatively poor unilaterally euroized non-EU Balkan economy,” he writes here. In some ways, this would be the worst of all worlds because Greece would lose access to the ECB. Countries using a foreign currency as legal tender have no access to a lender-of-last-resort, which means that every bank liquidity crisis becomes a solvency crisis. They therefore tend to have stunted domestic financial sectors — which almost every academic study shows is bad for growth — or have a banking system owned by foreigners, which exports the lender-of-last resort role to other countries’ central banks. (Mexico didn’t adopt the dollar after the 1994-95 financial crisis — but in order to avoid an undue shrinkage of its banking sector, it allowed most of its banks to be bought by foreigners.)


3. A currency board: In this case, Greece would create a new currency but lock it to the euro  – as Estonia did with the German mark in 1992 after it gained independence from the Soviet Union. The amount of new drachmas in circulation would be limited by the size of Greece’s international reserves: about $5.8 billion at the last count. Advocates argue that this would impose discipline on the Greeks — poor economic policies lead to an outflow of reserves and therefore of the domestic monetary base, which pushes up drachma interest rates, while good policies have the reverse effect. The drawback is that again the central bank is limited in its lender-of-last resort powers because it cannot create money freely. It also imposes discipline that, for now, may make it look unappetizing to Greece’s current rulers. It’s not much talked about, has a few enthusiastic and long-standing cheerleaders, but is a theoretical possibility. Here’s Steve Hanke arguing in favor.


4. A dual system: Here the drachma and the euro would circulate side-by-side. This has many historical precedents going back centuries. In practice, a dual system is likely to emerge when the Greek government runs out of euros and has to pay its domestic bills in government IOUs. The IOUs could at some future date be redeemed in euros, or could be eventually redeemed in drachmas, but they would initially be euro-denominated obligations of the government that would have a lesser value in the public mind than euro notes or coins. This state of affairs could continue for a long time, but there is an economic tendency called Gresham’s Law: ”Bad money chases out good.” Over time, euros would disappear from circulation because people would hoard them as a store of value  – and people would spend the government IOUs. De facto, the drachma, whether or not it would so be called, would become the main means of exchange.


5. The new drachma: The move to the new drachma may well not come with a bang, but gradually — as described in 4 above. But an eventual formal switch of the currency would give Greece control over its own monetary policy.  However, a new currency — which would likely float against the euro and other major currencies — would likely create enormous short-term disruption, not least because a heavy devaluation would follow and the banks would in effect be insolvent. Longer-term, it could be a motor for future growth of the Greek economy — because it would stimulate demand for Greek exports by lowering in real-terms the price of goods and services produced in Greece.  Longer term, the effects of a devaluation depends on the quality of economic policies that accompany it. It will create inflation, by increasing the costs of imports. One important issue is how much the government raises wages and pensions to compensate for higher inflation. The more domestic wages and pensions are allowed to rise, the less impact the devaluation will have in simulating Greek exports longer term and the lower the benefits to economic growth.




Place your bets.

1 comentario:

  1. Es increíble la fuerza de la ideología. En todos los análisis sobre Grecia está la idea explícita o subyacente de que Grecia es la del problema, cuando, en realidad, es ella la que debe lidiar con el problema de Europa y del sistema financiero y monetario en general.

    La ideología, para los que leen a las agencias internacionales, tiene un elemento anestesiante que hace que el consumidor de esa información crea en cosas que no existen. Eso les hace creer que un problema EN un lugar es DEL lugar. Les hace creer que el problema está donde se manifiesta.

    Por ejemplo, la creencia de muchos de que las deudas de un país son contraídas para beneficiarse de una supuesta “prosperidad” que derrama por doquier, aunque no se apliquen a ningún renglón productivo de la economía y sean pura especulación.

    Las deudas de un país son, primero, un negocio para sus acreedores; segundo, un negocio para los que promueven hacer el negocio de los acreedores; tercero, y muy indirectamente, una migaja debajo de la mesa para los pobres; cuarto, la certeza de que los pobres jamás van a ser comensales de esa mesa.

    Por creer en cosas que no existen no pueden ver que el negocio de los acreedores se terminó no por Grecia sino por una crisis descomunal de desintegración de los sistemas financieros y monetarios mundiales.

    Como los administradores de ese sistema infame, para salvarse ellos mismos, quieren que los griegos ni siquiera coman la migaja que les tiran por debajo de la mesa, el gobierno y pueblo de Grecia carecen de alternativas fuera de la cordura.

    Esto dista mucho de ser una negociación entre caballeros, unos, acreedores que prestaron dinero a, otros, deudores, que lo despilfarraron. Es el sistema financiero europeo y mundial el que metió a Grecia en esto de maneras bastante corruptas. Grecia no se metió sola en ese desastre. Administradores del gobierno que precedió al actual no hicieron nada que no contara con la aprobación de los administradores de la Troika.

    Ahora que los griegos tienen un gobierno que toma conciencia de los verdaderos problemas, con toda lógica, quiere salir del problema que no es de Grecia sino, principalmente, del sistema corrupto de la Troika y de la Reserva Federal. Grecia no es culpable de la crisis de desintegración financiera y económica global, es, más bien, una víctima de ello.

    El problema que tiene Grecia no es cómo devolver la plata que le prestaron para que se suicide, sino cómo zafar del problema que tiene la oligarquía financiera global que intenta zafar de su propia crisis haciendo que no solo el pueblo griego se suicide sino que todos los pueblos del mundo lo hagan. Si no zafa de ese problema que no es de ella, se suicidan. Y si zafa, sobrevive.

    Lo extraordinario de la situación para Grecia no es lo difícil de solucionar un problema propio sino el desafío enorme de escapar de un problema ajeno. Una vez que escapen, se les va a simplificar mucho, aunque les sea muy difícil.

    ResponderEliminar