martes, 16 de junio de 2015
Clima de época
El clima apocalíptico entre los yuppies de las finanzas no hace más que subir de tono a medida que corren las horas. No, chicos, lo que diga Sergei Massita por acá no tiene ninguna importancia. Lo que importa viene del Viejo Mundo y tiene olor rancio, pasado, pútrido incluso. Acá van los titulares y primeros párrafos del sitio Zero Hedge capturados esta tarde. Son todos de hoy. Por supuesto, hay gente que hace mucha plata con la histeria ajena, así que tomemos estos títulos con un granito de sal:
"Horrified" Syriza Hardliners Back "Immediate" Greek Bank Nationalization, Euro Exit
Caught between a recalcitrant Left Platform and exasperated creditors, Greek PM Alexis Tsipras must decide how he wants history to remember his tenure as Prime Minister. Either he will be the leader who allowed Greece to crash out of the euro on its way to a redomination-driven economic collapse, or he will go down as the fiery advocate for change who caved under pressure and allowed the troika to stamp out democracy in the place where it was born.
Forget The 3:30pm Ramp, Stock Gains Are All About The Night Shift
Just 2 years after we first noted it, the mainstream media has become fascinated with the performance of stocks in the last 30 minutes of the US cash session - the 330 Ramp! But, as with anything that becomes widely known (apart from "never start a land war in Asia" and "stocks are always cheap"), the exuberant last 30 minute ramp has been superseded by another... Welcome to The 2am Europe Open Ramp. As Nanex's Eric Scott Hunsader notes, a stunning 22% of all S&P 500 futures gains have occurred between 2am ET and 3am ET.
As Seen On A German TV Channel For Kids
"Learn about the Grexit early, kids, and don't be like those Greeks or the bogeyman will get you..."
As Greek Bonds & Stocks Crash, Here's Who Keeps Catching The Falling Knife
Greek 10Y yields are breaking back above 13%, bonds ar trading at 50 cents on the dollar, Greek stocks are near multi-decade lows, and Greek bank bonds have collapsed amid the ever-more-likely Grexit (or at least redenomination amid capital controls). But, there are some very smart chaps who must know something Tsipras, Merkel, and the rest of the world does not... because they are spending "Other People's Money" to buy the dip in Greek stocks and bonds. From Allianz and PIMCO (the world's lagest Greek bondholder ex-ECB) to Putnam and Wilbur Ross, it seems more than a few American investors will be impacted should Greece really implode.
According To Bank of America, This Is "The Biggest Risk To Global Equities"
"While most are focused on the risks around a withdrawal of liquidity, we believe the biggest hit to confidence could be the opposite: if another round of US QE is necessary to prop up the economy," BofAML says, suggesting the Fed is now cornered as raising rates risks destabilizing markets and QE4 risks betraying the futility of successive central bank interventions.
Brazil Retail Sales Drop Most On Record, Goldman Warns Will Get Worse
Just a few months ago, we warned Brazil's economy was on the verge of collapse as the fiscal situation was deteriorating rapidly. It appears, judging by the most recent data from the oil-rich nation, that we were right. Broad retail sales have now declined for five consecutive months with the seasonally adjusted broad retail sales index now at the same level as early 2012. Core retail sales declined 3.5% YoY during April (weakest print since Aug 2003) and broad retail sales declined by an even larger 8.5% YoY (lowest on record), and as Goldman warns, the outlook for private consumption and retail sales in the near term remains very weak.
Bitcoin Spikes As Greeks Follow Cyprus "Template"
In March/April 2013, Bitcoin prices started to soar as Dijsselbloem's "template" applied to Cyprus prompted many to rethink money entirely. As the reality of a possible Grexit looms and Capital Controls are denied (just as they were in Cyprus), so Bitcoin prices are once again surging (up 10% in the last few days) as non-fiat currency once again becomes bid.
The Second Nuclear Arms Race Arrives: Russia Will Add 40 ICBMs In 2015 In Response To "NATO Encroachment"
With the US and Russia in a state of (renewed) cold war for over a year now, it was inevitable that that "other", far more important attribute of the first Cold War would soon return: the nuclear arms race. And indeed it did just around dinner time in Russia today when speaking at an arms race fair, president Putin said that Russia will put more than 40 new intercontinental ballistic missiles into service in 2015 as part of a wide-reaching program to modernize the military.
"Lehman Weekend" Looms For Greece As Europe Readies "Emergency" Sunday Meeting
European leaders may convene an emergency summit this Sunday to decide Greece's fate as Varoufakis says no new proposal from Athens will be tabled at Thursday's meeting of EU finance ministers. With capital controls now imminent, and with Greece reportedly set to delay a June 30 IMF payment, a "Lehman Weekend" looms.
What's The Real Unemployment Rate In The US?
Officially, the unemployment rate in the U.S. is 5.6%, meaning 5.6% of the work force is temporarily out of a job and actively seeking another one. But these do not feel like good times for most households, despite the low unemployment rate. By our reckoning, roughly 60% of the civilian work force is fully employed and 40% are marginally employed or unemployed.
Forget "Happy Endings" - One Bank Sees Greek "Disorderly Default" As The Most Likely Outcome
With the S&P 500 2% off record highs, we are sure talking-heads will proclaim "any Greece actions are more than priced in," but as Bank Safra's chief economist Karsten Junius warns, forget happy endings, "Disorderly Default" is now the most likely outcome for Greece.
There Is One Problem With Europe's So-Called Austerity
The one most recurring laments coming out of peripheral European countries which boast near record youth unemployment, in most cases around the 50% area, is that the only reason why there is no growth is due to "evil austerity", imposed upon them by Germany and other frugal Northern Europe overseerers, who do not permit the rampant issuance of debt to fund domestic spending and fiscual stimulus programs. There is one problem with that: the peripheral European countries are not only issuing debt at a pace that is greater than the "pre-austerity" period, but these nations' debt to GDP ratios have never been higher!