lunes, 29 de junio de 2015

Grecia & Cía?


Primero lo primero: los griegos avisaron que defaultean mañana tempranito si no ocurre un cambio radical de enfoque en estas horas (lo cual parece por demás difícil). Las primeras dos noticias se refieren a esto y a un posible Grexit. Curiosamente, tanto o más relevante que estas dos noticias es la tercera: Puerto Rico avisa que entra en moratoria... ahorita mismo! Uno se pregunta si lo que viene no será una cascada, chicos, un dominó gigante que reviente la economía global. Ya sé que todos tenemos nuestro costadito apocalíptico, pero de más está decir que esto no es bueno, amigos. Esto no termina bien.


Título: Greece Will Default To IMF Tomorrow, Government Official Says

Texto: Earlier today, as the exchange between Greece and its creditors got increasingly belligerent, Estonian Prime Minister Taavi Roivas told public broadcaster Eesti Rahvusringhaaling in interview that a possible Greek decision to leave euro area wouldn’t soften stance of other EU countries and that Greece’s debt would still remain outstanding and creditors would expect this money back."

"If Greece leaves, the value of their new national currency would decline very fast, so their solvency would still worsen further. They will either have to cut spending or improve their tax revenues. There are no other options."

So did this latest antagonism change the Greek mind? According to a flash headline by the WSJ released moments ago, not all. In fact, Greece just made it official that it would default to the IMF in just over 24 hours.

More:

Greece won’t make a debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund due Tuesday, a senior Greek government official said Monday.

Earlier this month, Greece had notified the IMF it plans to bundle its loan repayments falling due this month into one payment of around 1.6 billion euros ($1.7 billion), which is due Tuesday.

The IMF has said that Greece will immediately be in arrears if it fails to make the debt repayment.

So, as per game theory, the Greek plan - at least until the social mood turns very ugly - remains just one:



The problem is what happens then...


***

Título: Greece Threatens 'Unprecedented' Injunction Against EU To Block Grexit

Texto: Having told the citizens of Greece that the European leaders will not kick them out of Europe because "the cost of throwing them out is too high, enormous," it appears Greek PM Tspiras has another plan to ensure - no matter what the outcome of the forthcoming referendum - that there is no actual Grexit. As The Telegraph reports, Greece has threatened to seek a court injunction against the EU institutions, saying "we are taking advice and will certainly consider an injunction at the European Court of Justice. The EU treaties make no provision for euro exit and we refuse to accept it. Our membership is not negotiable."

Speaking earlier Tsipras stated:

*TSIPRAS: REFERENDUM PROVIDES STRONGER NEGOTIATING POSITION
*TSIPRAS: CREDITORS’ PLAN IS NOT TO THROW COUNTRY OUT OF EURO
*TSIPRAS: COST OF THROWING COUNTRY OUT OF EURO AREA IS ENORMOUS
*TSIPRAS: GREECE WILL NOT BE THROWN OUT OF EURO, COST TOO GREAT

And now, as The Telegraph reports, Plan B is in place...

Greece has threatened to seek a court injunction against the EU institutions, both to block the country's expulsion from the euro and to halt asphyxiation of the banking system.

“The Greek government will make use of all our legal rights,” said the finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis.

“We are taking advice and will certainly consider an injunction at the European Court of Justice. The EU treaties make no provision for euro exit and we refuse to accept it. Our membership is not negotiable,“ he told the Telegraph.

The defiant stand came as Europe’s major powers warned in the bluntest terms that Greece will be forced out of monetary union if voters reject austerity demands in a shock referendum on Sunday.

Any request for an injunction against EU bodies at the European Court would be an unprecedented development, further complicating the crisis.

With JC Juncker lies and propaganda this morning, Tsipras main goal now is to keep anarchy from breaking out before the potential vote on Sunday.


***

Título: Puerto Rico Announces Bond Payment "Moratorium"

Texto: Having concluded last night that Puerto Rico debt is "unpayable," and that his government could not continue to borrow money to address budget deficits while asking its residents, already struggling with high rates of poverty and crime, to shoulder most of the burden through tax increases and pension cuts, Padilla confirmed tonight that (from Bloomberg):

*PUERTO RICO TO SEEK "NEGOTIATED MORATORIUM", 'YEARS' OF POSTPONEMENT IN DEBT PAYMENTS

Likening his state's situation to that of Detroit and New York City (though not Greece), Padilla concluded, the economic situation is "extremely difficult," which is odd because just a few years ago when they issued that bond - everything was awesome?

When will PR overtake Greece again?

Puerto Rico's Governor is speaking on national TV:

*PUERTO RICO DEBT IS UNPAYABLE, GOVERNOR SAYS
*PUERTO RICO DEBT LOAD WON'T LET ISLAND OVERCOME RECESSION: GOV.
*PUERTO RICO GOV. SAYS HE DOESN'T AGREE W/ ALL OF KRUEGER REPORT
*PUERTO RICO GOVERNOR SEEKS CREATION OF FISCAL BOARD
*PUERTO RICO NEEDS COMPLETE RESTRUCTURING PLAN: GOVERNOR
*PUERTO RICO TO SEEK `NEGOTIATED MORATORIUM' W/ BOND HOLDERS
*PUERTO RICO MUST HAVE BETTER TERMS TO PAY DEBT: GOVERNOR
*PUERTO RICO SEEKS ACCORD ON FISCAL REFORMS BY AUG. 30


And the punchline:

*BONDHOLDERS SHARE RESPONSIBILITY FOR PUERTO RICO'S DEBT: GOV.
*PUERTO RICO TO SEEK `NEGOTIATED MORATORIUM' W/ BOND HOLDERS
*PUERTO RICO BONDHOLDERS MUST MAKE SACRIFICES TOO: GOVERNOR
*PUERTO RICO TO SEEK `YEARS' OF POSTPONEMENT IN DEBT PAYMENTS
We suspect the 70 handle will quickly become a 50 handle or less...


As AP reports,

Puerto Rico's governor says he will create a financial team that will meet with bondholders and seek a moratorium on debt payments.

Gov. Alejandro Garcia Padilla made the announcement Monday night after saying that the U.S. territory's $72 billion public debt is unpayable. He said he would seek a moratorium of several years but did not provide specifics.

Garcia's comments come just hours after international economists released a gloomy report on Puerto Rico's economy.

Legislators are still debating a $9.8 billion budget that calls for $674 million in cuts and sets aside $1.5 billion to help pay off the debt. The budget has to be approved by Tuesday.


As we explained previously, what happens next is unclear: "Puerto Rico, as a commonwealth, does not have the option of bankruptcy. A default on its debts would most likely leave the island, its creditors and its residents in a legal and financial limbo that, like the debt crisis in Greece, could take years to sort out."

So without the "luxury" of default, what is PR to do? Why petition to be allowed to file Chapter 9 naturally: after all everyone is doing it.

In Washington, the García Padilla administration has been pushing for a bill that would allow the island’s public corporations, like its electrical power authority and water agency, to declare bankruptcy. Of Puerto Rico’s $72 billion in bonds, roughly $25 billion were issued by the public corporations.

Some officials and advisers say Congress needs to go further and permit Puerto Rico’s central government to file for bankruptcy — or risk chaos.

“There are way too many creditors and way too many kinds of debt,” Mr. Rhodes said in an interview. “They need Chapter 9 for the whole commonwealth.”


García Padilla said that his government could not continue to borrow money to address budget deficits while asking its residents, already struggling with high rates of poverty and crime, to shoulder most of the burden through tax increases and pension cuts. Where have we heard that before...

He said creditors must now “share the sacrifices” that he has imposed on the island’s residents.

“If they don’t come to the table, it will be bad for them,” said Mr. García Padilla, who plans to speak about the fiscal crisis in a televised address to Puerto Rico residents on Monday evening. “What will happen is that our economy will get into a worse situation and we’ll have less money to pay them. They will be shooting themselves in the foot.”


And the punchline:

“My administration is doing everything not to default,” Mr. García Padilla said. “But we have to make the economy grow,” he added. “If not, we will be in a death spiral.”


And this one: any deal with hedge funds, who are desperate to inject more capital in PR so they can avoid writing down their bond exposure in case of a default, "would only postpone Puerto Rico’s inevitable reckoning. “It will kick the can,” Mr. García Padilla said. “I am not kicking the can.”

We wonder how long before Tsipras, who earlier was quoting FDR, steals this line too.

And speaking of Prexit, how long before Puerto Rico exits the Dollarzone... and will there be a Preferendum first or will the governor, in his can kick-less stampede, just make a unilateral decision to join Greece, Ukraine, Venezuela and countless other soon to be broke countries in the twilight zone of Keynesian sovereign failures?

But Puerto Rico is not Detroit... well actually it is... worse:

*PUERTO RICO FACES SIMILIAR SITUATION AS DETROIT, NYC: GOVERNOR

Puerto Rico's debt is nearly half that of California for a population one-tenth the size... (via WSJ)




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