martes, 24 de noviembre de 2015

Putin: su momento JFK

 

No exageramos si decimos que se viven momentos peligrosísimos para el mantenimiento de esta precaria paz mundial. Lo de Turquía de ayer calentó la cabeza de muchos. Es una provocación, esto es seguro. La NATO es cómplice, esto es probable. Rusia podría desbocar su reacción en contra, esto es algo que está por verse. Vladimir Putin atraviesa, tal vez como nunca antes, su momento JFK. La primera de las cuatro notas que estamos posteando acá es de Russia Today:


Título: Poniendo las cartas sobre la mesa: ¿Por qué Turquía derribó al bombardero ruso Su-24?

Texto: Al derribar al avión militar ruso Su-24 Turquía ha cometido un error que tendrá consecuencias muy graves, afirman expertos militares. Según ellos, este ataque, por su parte, está relacionado con el éxito de la lucha de Rusia contra los terroristas en territorio sirio, algo que no interesa a Turquía. Además, Ankara teme que los ataques aéreos rusos ayuden a cortar el contrabando de petróleo del Estado Islámico hacia el país.

Turquía "se ha ofendido por los ataques a los camiones de combustible", cita la agencia Tass al director adjunto del Instituto de Análisis Político y Militar, Alexánder Jramchijin, quien se refiere a los golpes contundentes de la Fuerza Aérea rusa a los canales ilegales de suministro de petróleo de los yihadistas.

Jramchijin señala que los sistemas de radar de Turquía supervisan constantemente la situación en el espacio aéreo sirio, vigilando los vuelos de los aviones rusos, pero Ankara tomó la decisión de derribar a uno de ellos solo ahora, después de que el Ministerio de Defensa de Rusia había informado de la destrucción de 15 instalaciones de almacenamiento y refinación de petróleo, así como de 525 camiones cisterna. Cabe señalar, que muchos analistas también discuten en sus blogs el tema del papel que supuestamente juega uno de los hijos del presidente turco, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Bilal Erdogan, en el negocio del petróleo del Estado Islámico.

De acuerdo con los datos de vuelo registrados y difundidos por el Ministerio de Defensa de Rusia, el Su-24 no violó el espacio aéreo turco, sino llevó a cabo una misión de combate en Siria y cayó en territorio sirio. Los analistas señalan que en la historia existen muchos casos cuando aviones militares de un país entraron en el espacio aéreo de otro, pero el derribo de uno de ellos es una excepción. Normalmente las autoridades de la nación afectada se limitan a furiosos reproches y convocar al embajador para que dé las explicaciones pertinentes. Así lo hicieron los propios turcos a principios de octubre, cuando un avión de combate ruso en realidad violó su espacio aéreo debido a "condiciones meteorológicos adversas". Por lo que surge una pregunta ¿Qué necesidad urgente tuvo el presidente Erdogan esta vez para tomar medidas tan radicales?

"Vamos a excluir desde ya la idea de que fue algún tipo de coincidencia o una decisión espontánea. No fue algo espontáneo. Fue una decisión no solamente militar-operativa tomada a nivel táctico, sino también a nivel político, ya que este tipo de situaciones no pueden ocurrir sin contar con la dirección del país", cita el Canal Uno de Rusia al analista político experto en Oriente Medio, Karine Gevorgyan.


Los turcos esperan recoger sus frutos en Siria

La televisión rusa señala que solo hace una semana el presidente Erdogan sonreía a Vladímir Putin, como a otros líderes mundiales, en la cumbre G20 celebrada en Antalya. ¿Pero qué ha cambiado desde entonces? La respuesta, por su parte, se esconde en el calendario de visitas internacionales del mandatario francés, François Hollande. Ayer se reunió con el primer ministro británico David Cameron, este martes ha llegado a EE.UU. para dialogar con Barack Obama, después hablará con la canciller alemana Angela Merkel y solo un día después, con los resultados de estas discusiones viajará a Moscú. La agenda principal de todos los encuentros será la creación de una coalición unificada en Siria para luchar contra el Estado Islámico, objetivo común de todos estos Estados, pero no el de Turquía. 

"Turquía rescata al Estado Islámico. Creo que este es el único diagnóstico de la situación. Por desgracia, los turcos en su momento se esforzaron mucho para desestabilizar a Siria. De hecho, el complejo del Imperio otomano se ha intensificado mucho en Turquía, después de la llegada al poder de la dirección actual. Los turcos esperan recoger sus frutos en Siria y no descartan imponer un régimen títere. Es decir, Turquía estaba interesada en el Estado Islámico como una herramienta para resolver sus propios problemas", dijo al Canal Uno el analista político Serguéi Mijeev.

De acuerdo con los expertos, el objetivo actual de Erdogan, quien siempre trata de demostrar que Ankara no escucha a nadie y que hará lo que más le convenga, es romper la coalición y la manera más sencilla de hacerlo es crear una división entre Rusia y Occidente. 

"En realidad, Turquía no se habría atrevido a este paso, si no hubiera sentido que detrás de ella está la OTAN y Turquía, como uno de sus miembros, comprende que está bajo protección", explicó al Canal Uno la asesora del director del Instituto Ruso de Estudios Estratégicos, Elena Suponina. Así, ahora la OTAN está planeando una reunión extraordinaria de la Alianza, donde sus miembros decidirán cómo actuar a continuación. Por supuesto, los acontecimientos recientes también han afectado el curso de las conversaciones de Hollande con sus homólogos extranjeros, cuyo cambio solo está por manifestarse.


***


La nota que sigue es de Tony Cartalucci para New Eastern Outlook:


Título: Turkey shoots down Russian warplane: NATO's act of war

Texto: Despite blatant provocation, Russia must continue toward the finish line. With cameras rolling, Turkey has claimed it has shot down a Russian Sukhoi Su-24 attack aircraft. The New York Times in its article, "Turkey Shoots Down Russian Warplane Near Syria Border," reports that:

Turkish fighter jets on patrol near the Syrian border shot down a Russian warplane on Tuesday after it violated Turkey's airspace, a long-feared escalation that could further strain relations between Russia and the West.

The escalation is "long feared" not because the Turkish government actually fears that Russian warplanes crossing their border pose a threat to it or its people, but because Russia has ended NATO's proxy war, a proxy war spearheaded in part by Turkey itself, amid Russia's joint military operations with Syria against the self-proclaimed "Islamic State" (ISIS) and supporting terrorist factions.

In addition to having a camera rolling as the plane went down in flames, terrorists operating in region had allegedly surrounded the dead pilot shortly after the incident according to Reuters.

While Turkey maintains that it was only reacting in self-defense (or perhaps in defense of terrorists it is sponsoring) - it was against a nation's planes that it knew had no intention of attacking its territory - and what looks like instead was Turkey targeting planes operating along reoccurring routes and shooting one down once the pieces were in place to maximize the event politically.


Russia Continues Toward the Finish Line

In recent weeks with Russian air support, Syrian troops have retaken large swaths of territory from ISIS, Al Qaeda, and other terrorist fighters. The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has even begun approaching the Euphrates River east of Aleppo, which would effectively cut off ISIS from its supply lines leading out of Turkish territory.

From there, Syrian troops would move north, into the very "safe zone" the US and its Turkish partners have long-sought but have so far failed to establish within Syria's borders. This "safe zone" includes a region of northern Syrian stretching from Jarabulus near the west bank of the Euphrates to Afrin and Ad Dana approximately 90-100 kilometers west.

Once Syrian troops retake this territory, the prospect of the West ever making an incursion into Syria, holding territory, or compromising Syria's territorial integrity would be lost forever. Western ambitions toward regime change in Damascus would be indefinitely suspended.

The endgame is at hand, and only the most desperate measures can hope to prevent Russia and Syria from finally securing Syria's borders. Turkey's provocation is just such a measure.

Russia's time, place, and method of retaliating against Turkey is something only the Kremlin will know. But Russia's actions upon the international stage have been so far thoroughly thought out, allowing Moscow to outmaneuver the West at every juncture and in the wake of every Western provocation.

For Turkey's government - one that has been consistent only in its constant failure regarding its proxy war against its neighbor Syria, who has been caught planning false flag provocations to trigger wider and more direct war in Syria, and whose government is now exposed and widely known to be directly feeding, not fighting ISIS - the prospect of Russian retaliation against it, either directly or indirectly, and in whatever form will leave it increasingly isolated.

Until then, Russia's best bet is to simply continue winning the war. Taking the Jarabulus-Afrin corridor and fortifying it against NATO incursions while cutting off ISIS and other terrorist factions deeper within Syria would be perhaps the worst of all possible retaliations. With Syria secured, an alternative arc of influence will exist within the Middle East, one that will inevitably work against Saudi and other Persian Gulf regimes' efforts in Yemen, and in a wider sense, begin the irreversible eviction of Western hegemony from the region.

The West, already being pushed out of Asia by China, will suffer immeasurably as the world dismantles its unipolar international order, region by region.

As in the game of chess, a player often seeks to provoke their opponent into a series of moves. The more emotional their opponent becomes, the easier it is to control the game as it unfolds. Likewise in geopolitics and war, emotions can get one killed, or, be channeled by reason and superior strategic thinking into a plan that satisfies short-term requirements but serves long-term objectives. Russia has proven time and time again that it is capable of striking this balance and now, more than ever, it must prove so again.



***


Esta nota es de Stephen Lendman para Global Research:

Título: Inconceivable that Turkey acted independently - Washington complicit in downing Russian jet?

Texto: Turkish-NATO military shoots down a Russian Su-24 jet inside Syria, 24 November 2015. Both countries are NATO allies, united against Assad, wanting him toppled, actively complicit in supporting and using ISIS, as well as other terrorist groups as proxy foot soldiers in the war Obama launched in March 2011.

It's inconceivable Turkey acted on its own, independent of US-dominated NATO. Its action is a major geopolitical incident - a premeditated act of war against Russia in Syrian airspace.

Ankara claiming the aircraft entered Turkish airspace, ignoring multiple warnings, has the distinct aroma of a bald-faced lie to cover up a hostile act.

Erdogan's recklessness has ruptured Turkish/Russian relations, at least for the time being. Sergey Lavrov cancelled his scheduled Wednesday trip to Istanbul, saying "(a) decision has been made to cancel the meeting at the level of Russian and Turkish foreign ministers..."

He urged Russian citizens to avoid visiting Turkey, leaving themselves vulnerable to terrorism, adding:

"It's necessary to emphasize that the terror threats with their roots in Turkey have been aggravated. And that's true even if we don't take into account what happened today. We estimate the threats to be no less than in Egypt."

Russia's state tourism agency Rostourism recommended suspending tour package sales to Turkey. Moscow-based Natalie tours already did so.

Putin minced no words blasting Erdogan, saying:

"(t)his incident stands out against the usual fight against terrorism.Our troops are fighting heroically against terrorists, risking their lives. But the loss we suffered today came from a stab in the back delivered by accomplices of the terrorists."

He also warned of grave consequences for Russian-Turkish relations.

A Turkish Lockheed-Martin produced F-16 war-plane willfully and without provocation downed Russia's aircraft posing no threat to Ankara's national security, Putin explained.

He's well aware of Erdogan's complicity with terrorists Russia is combating in Syria - at the request of its government, its actions entirely legal and heroic against a common scourge.

"IS has big money, hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars, from selling (stolen Syrian) oil. In addition, they are protected by the military of an entire nation," Putin stressed - leaving no doubt he means Turkey, well aware of Washington using ISIS and other takfiri terrorists as proxy foot soldiers against Assad's legitimate government. He went on:

"One can understand why they are acting so boldly and blatantly, why they kill people in such atrocious ways, why they commit terrorist acts across the world, including in the heart of Europe."

Recalling Russia's ambassador may come next. Expect Putin to react appropriately to what happened. It's too serious to ignore or smooth over through normal diplomatic channels between both nations.

Putin explained that Ankara didn't contact Russia after what happened; instead it, outrageously, called an emergency late afternoon Tuesday NATO meeting - apparently wanting the Alliance to serve the interests of ISIS, he added. Its actions won't be tolerated, he stressed.

Washington-backed Turkey also absurdly claimed it issuing "10 warnings" before downing Russia's aircraft. Was it directly complicit with what happened?

This bears repeating: it's inconceivable Turkey acted alone, without permission or direct complicity under NATO's highest authority. America provides 75% of its military budget. It calls the shots - deciding whether, when, where and how to act or react.

Erdogan's action was reckless. Obama is playing with fire if his involvement with what happened is determined. Putin won't let it pass without appropriate actions in response, which have already begun.

An official protest has been lodged with the Turkish military attaché. A Russian Defense Ministry statement said "(w)e are considering the actions of the Turkish air forces as an unfriendly act."

Moscow's anti-terrorist campaign in Syria will continue as planned, maybe intensified further after what happened. Turkey has now, clearly and openly, declared itself an adversary in the war on terrorism, risking direct confrontation with Russia.


***


Por último, la nota que sigue es de Ricky Twisdale para Russian Insider


Título: Putin's JFK moment - a time for wisdom

Subtítulo: Turkey's provocative action puts Russia one step away from full-scale war with NATO

Texto: With today's shoot-down of a Russian SU-24 by a Turkish F-16, the conflict in Syria has entered a very dangerous escalation.

Turkey is a member of the NATO alliance. Let us therefore not mince words: A NATO state has just attacked Russia. Perhaps not since the downing of a an American U-2 over Cuba during the Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962, has the world been so close to a third world war.

At that time, the US Joint Chiefs of Staff as well as most of John F. Kennedy's cabinet supported retaliatory bombing and invasion of Cuba. Had such taken place, it would have compelled Soviet leader Nikita Khruschev to seize West Berlin. That in turn would have led to further retaliation by NATO. Within a very short time full-scale war, including nuclear exchange, could have taken place.

Fortunately, Kennedy and his closest circle of advisors were able to foresee the progression of events, resist the warhawks, establish direct communication with Khruschev and find a negotiated settlement to the crisis. Had he reacted rashly or buckled under the pressure for war, it is doubtful the world would exist today.

Like Kennedy, Putin must now display the ultimate statesmanship

Now Putin faces his "Kennedy moment." Will he take the obvious course - one might say even the justifiable course - and bomb the Syrian [meant Turkish - R.T.] base from which the attacking fighters came? Such a move would almost certainly lead to war between Russia and NATO. Will he apply sanctions against Turkey, possibly leading to a ramping up of the sanctions against Russia from Turkey's allies?

Or will he choose the wisest, but perhaps the most difficult course - seemingly doing nothing. A diplomatic offensive now will humiliate and isolate Turkey, and thoroughly discredit the Western position and its covert (with Turkey's attack on Russia, overt) support of Islamic terror.

It may not be the most macho or ostensibly "right" response - especially as far as his domestic audience is concerned - but it is in fact, the strongest one. It takes a strong leader, one with vision, to hold back - not only to act, but not to act, when necessary.

We already know Vladimir Putin will take the high road. He has done so countless times, when everyone else seemed to have gone totally insane.

He did not invade Ukraine and seize Kiev, when Washington installed a hostile regime directly on Russia's border. His response was limited to securing Sevastopol against the US 6th fleet, and protecting the physical existence of Russian-speakers.

He, along with then President Medvedev, did not annex Georgia, or topple Saakashvili, when the latter recklessly used force against South Ossetia, violating cease-fire agreements and killing Russian citizens. Russia neutralized the Georgian army, then retreated to its bases.

Putin decisively defused the previous attempt in 2013, to bomb and invade Syria through the skillful use of diplomacy, securing from Assad an unprecedented agreement to declare and destroy all chemical weapons. (Nobel committee - are you blind?)

During the last 15 years Putin has not used force, or even the threat of force, to prevent any country from joining the anti-Russian NATO alliance, even as it expanded up to Russia's doorstep. Rather, Moscow persistently and publicly upholds the right of sovereign states to make independent choices.

Just as in 1962, when the world owed its existence to the reserve of Kennedy and Khruschev, today we in no small measure owe the peace of Europe and the world, to the patient determination of Russia's president.


And one may rest assured that whatever Putin's response to this crisis, it will be one we have come to expect from Europe's last real statesman.


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