sábado, 14 de noviembre de 2015

París (2)

Seguimos posteando sobre los atentados de ayer en Paris. Acá va una serie de opiniones y noticias, un poco de todos lados. Las tres últimas son del New York Times; las tres son significativas, sobre todo (en nuestra opinión) la última. ¿Un cambio de política en el corazón de la NATO? Si así fuera, estaríamos presenciando un triunfo de la cara “razonable” del Imperio (esto es, la línea de Obama) por sobre el delirio sanguinolento de los neocones. Habrá que ver.

Título: France's Far-Right Party Calls For Nation To "Re-Arm Itself", Revoke Muslims' Passports, "Eradicate" Radical Islam

Fuente: Zero Hedge

Texto: If there is one 'winner' from last night's terrible events in Paris, it is France's anti-EU, anti-immigration far-right wing Front Nationale party leader Marine Le Pen. Having already ascended to the lead in yet another poll ahead of France's 2017 elections, Le Pen came out swinging this morning call for France to "re-arm itself," stating that radical Islam must be "eradicated" from France. She further demanded that border controls be made "permanent" and binational Islamists must be depreived of their French passport.

As Bloomberg notes:


Which is all fine if this was some extreme and unpopular party, but in fact...

Marine Le Pen Tops Another French Presidency Poll

The Front National party in France are moving one step closer to seriously challenging for the country’s presidency. A new opinion poll reveals that their leader, nationalist firebrand Marine Le Pen, has topped yet another poll ahead of the elections in 2017.

The IFOP poll in conjunction with Sud Radio and Lyon Capitale gives Ms. Le Pen a lead under three different scenarios, reflecting the panic setting into the French political establishment which is considering a ‘grand coalition’ of centre-left and centre-right parties to keep the Front National out.

According to IFOP, if centrist politician Francois Bayrou and centre-right Nicolas Sarkozy ran, Ms. Le Pen would top the first choice in the multi-round election with 28 per cent of the votes. In second, the Republican Party’s Sarkozy (23), and in third, current president, socialist Francois Hollande (21).

As John Rubino noted previously, there are two reasons for the rise of National Front and other anti-euro parties:

1) The adoption of a common currency hasn’t delivered the broad-based prosperity that was promised. Instead, Germany has entered a golden age of soaring exports, massive trade surpluses and balanced budgets while most other eurozone countries have been unable to function with a currency they can’t devalue at will.

2) The European Union’s decision to counter falling birthrates with rising immigration from Africa and the Middle East has, in the opinion of a growing number of Europeans, produced a two-tiered society in which a shrinking layer of liberal, pacifist, aging “natives” sits atop a growing, restless layer of newcomers who instead of assimilating are trying to impose their culture on traditional Europe.

And then came the Paris attacks. The perps are Middle Eastern though it’s not clear what group they’re affiliated with. But no one seems to care whether it’s ISIS or al-Qaeda. Their ancestry is all that will matter in the next election, and any politician with an anti-euro, anti-immigrant platform will find a suddenly very receptive audience.

Título: Wake up, Europe: Russia is not the enemy

Autor/Fuente: Danielle Ryan / Russia Today

Texto: In the aftermath of the slew of horrific terror attacks in Paris last night, European nations must come to admit that, with their continuous and blind support of US foreign policy, they are sowing the seeds of their own demise.

For more than a year and a half, Washington, with little concern for consequences, has used Europe as a tool in its futile attempts to batter Russia into submission. First in Ukraine, now in Syria — and each time Europe has sided with Washington against its own interests, it has suffered for it.

That US-driven rift between Europe and Russia must not be allowed to widen any further. The risks to Europe now are far too great for Paris, Brussels and Berlin to be squandering allies in favor of fickle friends — and Friday’s attacks in the French capital highlight the total absurdity of the West continuing to treat Russia as its enemy in the face of such a menacing common threat.

Threat of an overreaction looms

Naturally, the focus today remains on grief, anger and confusion. But as the dust settles over this latest tragedy, Europeans will continue to question the wisdom of foreign policy that results in this kind of bloody blowback in their capital cities. Whether their leaders can listen to reason is another question entirely.

Threats like IS cannot be dealt with until we are honest with ourselves about how they evolved, and the role we played in that evolution. There is, as we will no doubt hear many times in the coming days, no excuse for terror. That is true, but it is also unfortunately a simplistic and idealistic mentality — and when spouted from the mouths of missile-happy Western politicians, there is an almost macabre hypocrisy to it. It’s a mentality that makes us feel better in justifying our own terror and violence, in the name of combating the terror and violence of others — and it is a vicious circle.

Terror attacks like these allow the worst instincts of the Western establishment to rise to the surface. The collective fear and trauma caused by such horror is cynically harnessed by governments to shift public opinion towards supporting more war and violence, which results only in more fear, more death, more destruction and more terrorism. This cycle has become the new normal.

French President Francois Hollande’s first comments after the Paris attacks demonstrate as much: “We will continue to lead the fight, and it will be merciless,” he said. It’s sentences like that which should give Europeans even more reason to fear where this will all lead.

Attacks shift agenda at Vienna talks

As another round of multilateral talks on Syria begins in Vienna today, the agenda will surely be affected by this latest string of attacks. But there is an opportunity here for European nations, including France, to go against their worst instincts and orders from Washington, and to more seriously consider Russia’s recent eight-point plan for a Syria peace deal.

The alternative — supporting Washington’s failed policy of arming, training and aiding “moderate” rebel groups — has clearly not been in Europe’s best interests.

We have seen knee-jerk overreactions which exacerbate violence all before. We know where they lead. France’s response should not focus on exacting some sort of American-style ‘shock and awe’ revenge, but should be about doubling down on its efforts to achieve a peace deal in Syria. That must involve a broad reassessment of its strategy in the war-torn country and a serious reconsideration of Russia’s proposals — or at least a greater openness to cooperation with Moscow. Russia has not put forth its plan as an iron-clad ultimatum. It is open to suggestions.

The pressure from the US side however, might be too great. The Obama administration has demonstrated, for whatever reasons, that cooperating with Russia on an equal footing is not something they feel they can lower themselves to. Washington will attempt to seize the moment and dominate the Vienna talks. The fact that Barack Obama yesterday evening took to a podium to comment on the Paris attacks while the siege was still ongoing — and before even the French president himself had spoken publicly — is evidence enough of that.

But as Europe deals with the blowback that the US has avoided thus far, the balance may tip out of Washington’s favor. The French people are focused on mourning today, but soon they will begin asking questions. They will question the sanity of the government which flirted with radical groups in Syria at some other nation’s beck and call. They will question the competence of the security and intelligence services, which despite monitoring the hundreds of French citizens returning from Syria, still did not see this coming. They will question Europe’s open-doors policy to migrants and refugees, fearing justifiably, that among the mostly normal humans fleeing terror, there will be those intent on doing them harm.

The root of the problem

Of course, the roots of this go much further back than Syria. The US handed the EU the pen to sign its own death warrant when George Bush invaded Iraq and paved the way for a group as horrifically barbaric as the Islamic State to rise from the carnage and destruction.

Terrorism is a global threat. The heinous attacks in Paris prove that nowhere is safe from this menace. Not a small concert venue on a Friday night. Not a friendly football game between neighboring nations. Not an inconspicuous Cambodian restaurant in a Parisian neighborhood.

There is a lesson for France from last night’s horrible events. You cannot simultaneously publicly battle against extremism and cozy up to the worst extremists of all as a matter of foreign policy. Nor can you, to serve selfish geopolitical interests, pick and choose which terrorists are bad and which ones are good. It doesn’t work like that.

The US foreign policy class has an aversion to learning from its mistakes — whether that is intentional or not is a discussion for another day. Either way, Europe must not follow in its footsteps any longer.

Truth be told, no one knows how to deal with ISIS. Not Washington, not Paris and not Moscow. There isn’t a rulebook — but there is certainly a list of tried and tested failures that can inform our decision making. What is also clear is that this threat does demand solidarity among nations who should be able to put their minor differences aside to face a common threat.

To allow Washington to fan the flames of a useless rift between Europe and Russia is pure insanity. The longer Europe remains blind to this reality, the longer we treat Russia as an enemy rather than a partner in dealing with IS, the longer we must prepare ourselves for endless violence — in Syria and in our own front yards.

Título: Putin Condemns Paris Massacre as 'Barbaric', 'Challenge to Civilization'

Subtítulo: Says Russia stands ready to work closely with France to bring the perpetrators to justice

Fuente: Sputnik - Russian news agency

Texto: Russian President Vladimir Putin sent a telegram to his French counterpart Francois Hollande stressing that the Paris tragedy showed once again barbaric nature of terrorism, which poses challenge to civilization, the Kremlin press service said Saturday.

“This tragedy is further evidence of the barbaric nature of terrorism, which poses a challenge to human civilization,” the press service said.

Terrorist attacks were staged at different locations in Paris on Friday, including the Bataclan concert hall and the Stade de France stadium, claiming the lives of more than 150 people.

“I would like to confirm the readiness for close cooperation with French partners on investigating the crime committed in Paris… I hope the masterminds and perpetrators will be brought to justice,” Putin said in a telegram to French President Francois Hollande, as quoted by the press service.

The Friday attacks in the French capital occurred at seven different locations, including the Bataclan concert hall and the Stade de France stadium. They took the lives of over 120 people.

Título: Paris Attacks Likely to Inspire More Aggressive U.S. Strategy on ISIS

Autores/Fuente: Peter Baker y Eric Schmittnov / The New York Times

Texto: When the Islamic State stormed onto the scene in Syria and Iraq, it seemed focused on seizing territory in its own neighborhood. But in the last two weeks, the so-called soldiers of the caliphate appear to have demonstrated a chilling reach, with terrorist attacks against Russia, in Lebanon and now in Europe.

The seemingly synchronized assaults that turned Paris into a war zone on Friday came just days after a bombing targeted a Shiite district of Beirut controlled by Iran’s ally, Hezbollah, and a Russian passenger jet was downed over Egypt. The rapid succession of strikes, all claimed by the Islamic State, suggested that the regional war has turned into a global one.

For President Obama and American allies, the attacks are almost certain to force a reassessment of the threat and may require a more aggressive strategy against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, ISIL or Daesh. Mr. Obama prepared to leave Saturday for a scheduled trip to Antalya, Turkey, where he was to consult with other world leaders in a Group of 20 summit meeting now sure to be dominated by the Paris attacks and questions of what to do next.

“ISIS is absolutely a threat beyond the region,” said Frances Fragos Townsend, the top White House counterterrorism adviser under President George W. Bush. “We must not continue to assume that ISIS is merely an away threat. It clearly has international ambitions beyond its self-proclaimed caliphate.”

The situation was already complex enough, with varied players with separate interests involved in the war.

Iran is fighting the Islamic State, but is hardly an ally of the United States. Russia says it is fighting the Islamic State as well, but mainly seems to be trying to bolster the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad, who Mr. Obama has demanded step down.

Now Mr. Obama may have to rethink the lines of alliance and the contours of the war he has been waging.

“Truthfully, I can’t imagine how it doesn’t change their approach,” said Michael E. Leiter, a former director of the National Counterterrorism Center under Mr. Bush and Mr. Obama. “When you give this kind of organization this much freedom of movement and go after it this incrementally, people shouldn’t be surprised by things like the aircraft bombing.”

Matthew G. Olsen, another former director of the counterterrorism center, said the series of major attacks would compel the White House to take additional steps. “All of this raises the stakes for the U.S. and increases pressure on the U.S. and the West to respond more aggressively,” he said.

Escalating action against ISIS carries its own risks. The Russian airliner was attacked after Moscow intervened in the Syria conflict. And ISIS has warned it would step up strikes against those countries that have joined the American-led coalition fighting the group in Iraq and Syria.

“The operational tempo is increasing on both sides,” said Mr. Olsen. “We’re increasing our attacks in Syria and Iraq, and ISIS is increasing their attacks as well.”

Representative Adam B. Schiff of California, the ranking Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, said the attacks should dispel any illusions about the nature of the Islamic State. “It will add another sense of urgency to defeating” it, he said, “and that will be very hard to do without eliminating its sanctuary. If this doesn’t create in the world a fierce determination to rid ourselves of this scourge, I don’t know what will.”

The Paris attacks will inevitably raise the question of whether to escalate American and Western military operations in Syria and Iraq. Mr. Obama has authorized airstrikes and sent small teams of Special Operations forces acting as advisers to aid Iraqi military units, Syrian rebels and Kurdish fighters on the ground. But he has strongly resisted a more extensive involvement of American ground troops to avoid repeating what he sees as the mistakes of the Iraq war.

Ms. Townsend and others said that the White House had been too reluctant to acknowledge an “inconvenient truth” — that the Islamic State threat extends beyond the Middle East and could easily lead to a Paris-style attack in the United States.

If there were doubts about that before, American intelligence agencies on Saturday were busy trying to make sure that that was not the case, scouring passenger manifests on airliners bound for the United States and searching surveillance resources for chatter about plots.

Mr. Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry made it clear in statements after the Paris attacks that the United States would stand firm against terrorism, whatever its source. In Vienna, where Mr. Kerry was trying to negotiate a settlement of the Syrian civil war that helped give rise to the Islamic State, he said the Paris attacks would “stiffen our resolve” to fight back.

“You’re going to see several things,” said Steven Simon, a former Middle East adviser to Mr. Obama. “Tighter border controls, more intensive surveillance in the U.S. and more outreach to local communities in the hope that extremists will be fingered by their friends and family. And a tightening of already intimate cooperation with European intelligence agencies.”

Juan Carlos Zarate, a former counterterrorism adviser to Mr. Bush, said the spreading threat would require action on multiple fronts. “In the wake of the Paris, Beirut and Sinai attacks, the U.S. government and allies may not realize that there may not be time to contain this threat — and instead need to be much more aggressive in disrupting terrorists’ hold on territory, resources and the minds of Muslim youth.”

The Paris attacks, coming so soon after the deadly shootings at Charlie Hebdo, the French satirical newspaper, in January will force American analysts to review their assumptions about the potential threat at home.

While attacks in places like Mumbai, India, have been highly coordinated, much attention in the United States has focused on the possibility of lone-wolf attackers inspired by, if not directed by, radical groups overseas, as manifested by the shootings at Fort Hood, Tex., in 2009 or the bombing of the Boston Marathon in 2013.

“The multiple coordinated attacks defy the lone-wolf narrative we had constructed,” said Juliette Kayyem, a former assistant secretary of homeland security under Mr. Obama. “The fact this could happen is remarkable, and not in a complimentary way. We can withstand random guys with low-level attacks and minimal consequences. This means the ‘war’ we thought we had put to rest has resurfaced.”

Bruce Hoffman, director of the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University, said it was never an either-or choice between lone wolves and foreign attackers. “The emphasis on lone wolves was all part of the wishful thinking that ISIS was purely a local phenomenon that could be contained to Syria and Iraq,” he said.

Indeed, the initial assumptions on Friday were that the Paris attacks must be the work of Al Qaeda, a group that traditionally has had wider reach and aspirations than the Islamic State.

In 2010, Mr. Hoffman recalled, Osama bin Laden called on Qaeda franchises to stage Mumbai-style attacks in European cities, but his order fell on deaf ears because there was no group capable of such an operation at that time.

Today, the Islamic State seems to have filled that void.

“They wanted to be considered a global terrorist organization,” said John D. Cohen, a Rutgers University professor who was a senior Department of Homeland Security counterterrorism and intelligence official until last year. “If so, they’ll have sent a loud message they are.”

Título: Paris Attacks to Dominate Agenda at G-20 Conference in Turkey

Autor/Fuente: Michael Shearnov / The New York Times

Texto: President Obama will consult about the Paris terrorist attacks with world leaders in Turkey this weekend as the annual gathering of presidents and prime ministers from the world’s largest economies there is poised to become an urgent summit meeting on confronting extremism.

The president is scheduled to depart on Air Force One on Saturday afternoon for a 10-day trip to Turkey, the Philippines and Malaysia, a day after a series of simultaneous attacks killed at least 127 people in Paris and prompted President François Hollande of France to tighten the nation’s border controls and mobilize the military.

On Friday evening, Mr. Obama called the situation in Paris an “attack on all of humanity” and pledged to do whatever it takes to join the French people in bringing the terrorists to justice. The president is expected to arrive early Sunday morning in Antalya, Turkey, on the Mediterranean coast, for the Group of 20 summit meeting.

The official economic agenda in Turkey and Asia was already likely to be overshadowed by a series of intense meetings between Mr. Obama and his counterparts about the Syrian civil war, the refugee crisis in Europe, disputes with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and ongoing tensions in the South China Sea.

But the Paris attacks are certain to push even those topics to the side, at least temporarily, as world leaders confront the scale of the terrorist attacks in the French capital. The leaders will grapple with the rising threat of the Islamic State, which President Hollande has blamed for the Paris attacks. American authorities on Saturday did not dispute Mr. Hollande’s assessment or the Islamic State’s own claim of responsibility.

There was no official word early Saturday about possible changes to the schedule of events in Turkey, which were to feature an opening ceremony and sessions on development, climate change, the global economy and growth. A dinner to discuss terrorism and refugees was already planned for Sunday night.

Mr. Obama had been scheduled to meet, one-on-one with Mr. Hollande, but the French president canceled his visit to Turkey soon after the scale of the attacks became clear.

Six years after Mr. Obama attended his first G-20 meeting at the height of the global economic crisis in 2009, the United States economy has rebounded and the president was looking forward to attending this year’s gathering as the leader of one of the world’s strongest economies.

In the Philippines and Malaysia, Mr. Obama will bring with him the just-negotiated Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, and a pledge to win its passage by Congress back home. The president planned to preview his hopes for a new, global climate pact that is scheduled to be concluded during a summit meeting in Paris that begins late this month. It was unclear Saturday what impact the terrorist attacks in that city might have on the climate meeting.

Mr. Obama had also planned to use the summit meetings to make diplomatic progress after recent military advances in Iraq against the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, ISIL and Daesh, which has seized vast territory in both Iraq and Syria. Secretary of State John Kerry has been trying to forge a diplomatic path that could lead to the eventual departure from Syria of President Bashar al-Assad and an end to four years of conflict in the country.

Mr. Kerry met in Vienna on Saturday with diplomats from Europe and the Middle East, seeking progress on establishing a cease-fire and resolving differences about the future of Mr. Assad’s government.

Mr. Obama’s conversations with world leaders are scheduled to take place not far from Turkey’s border with Syria, a transit point for refugees. Before the Paris attacks, aides to Mr. Obama had expressed hope for what they called “incremental” movement during the president’s discussions, but they cautioned that negotiations would need to continue beyond the president’s trip to the region.

“These issues are hugely complex and fraught,” said Susan E. Rice, the president’s national security adviser. “If they weren’t, they would have been resolved a long time ago.”

“I don’t think anybody expects a single outcome that all of a sudden readily resolves all these difficult issues,” she added.

Not on the official schedule is a meeting between Mr. Obama and Mr. Putin, who is expected at the summit meeting in Antalya. But even before the Paris attacks, White House officials said they had anticipated that the two leaders would have “ample opportunity” to talk privately. The last meeting between the two men, at the United Nations General Assembly in September, was described as confrontational, even before Mr. Putin expanded his country’s own military involvement in Syria.

It was unclear Saturday whether the Paris attacks might alter the dynamic between Mr. Obama and Mr. Putin. The bloodshed in France comes after a terrorist attack in Lebanon and the crash in Egypt of a Russian airliner, which is thought to have been brought down by a terrorist bomb.

Speaking before the Paris attacks, Heather Conley, a former deputy assistant secretary of state under President George W. Bush, said “Mr. Putin will be far from isolated” at the summit meeting. Ms. Conley, now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, added that “Russia now plays an increasing role in how to resolve the political transition in Syria.”

But Ms. Rice rejected that assessment of Mr. Putin. “The Russians certainly have their ideas; we have ours; other players have theirs,” she said, adding that she does not see “any indication that President Putin’s isolation is diminished.”

Later in his trip, Mr. Obama is expected to highlight the Pacific trade agreement to underscore what White House officials call his long-term commitment to a larger American presence in Asia.

Mr. Obama is not expected to meet with President Xi Jinping of China, although the two leaders will both attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit meeting in the Philippines. But officials said Mr. Obama will make concerns about freedom of navigation through the South China Sea a “central issue of discussion” during his visits.

“The United States takes no position on competing sovereignty claims” in the South China Sea, Josh Earnest, the White House press secretary, said in a news briefing before the Paris attacks. “But what we do take a strong position on is protecting the rights, freedoms and lawful uses of the sea and airspace that’s guaranteed to all countries.”

Mr. Obama is certain to hear much on that subject from other Asian leaders, many of whom want help from the United States in standing against China’s claims on the disputed waters off its coast. In late October, the administration sent a Navy destroyer through the disputed waters in what officials called a “freedom of navigation” exercise designed to send a signal to the Chinese.

Título: Attacks in Paris Add Urgency to Talks on Ending Syria War

Autor/Fuente: Julie Hirschfeld Davis

Texto: The top diplomats from more than a dozen countries met here on Saturday for talks on ending the crisis in Syria, vowing to redouble their efforts to confront terrorism after the deadly attacks in Paris.

The carnage in France provided a grim backdrop and somber urgency for the negotiations, aimed at reaching a cease-fire in Syria and paving the way for a political transition there that could end four years of civil war.

“It is more necessary than ever in the current circumstance to coordinate the international fight against terrorism,” Laurent Fabius, the French foreign minister, said as the meetings began.

Secretary of State John Kerry said the attacks in Paris and recently in Iraq and Beirut, Lebanon, were “the most vile, horrendous, outrageous, unacceptable acts on the planet.” He added that they were born of “a kind of medieval and modern fascism at the same time, which has no regard for life, which seeks to destroy and create chaos and disorder and fear.”

“The one thing we could say to those people is that what they do in this is stiffen our resolve, all of us, to fight back, to hold people accountable and to stand up for rule of law, which is exactly what we are here to do,” Mr. Kerry said after meeting with Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia and before sitting down with the rest of the ministers assembled for the talks. “And if they’ve done anything, they’ve encouraged us today to do even harder work to make progress and to help resolve the crises that we face.”

Still, the challenges in Syria are steep, and Mr. Kerry has conceded in recent days that they will not be quickly resolved. The negotiations involve a diverse set of players with conflicting agendas — including the United States, Russia, Iran and Saudi Arabia — and there is no clear consensus on the most pressing issues. Syrians were absent from the meetings in Vienna discussing their fate, with no representatives for either President Bashar al-Assad or the constellation of opposition groups vying to oust him.

Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian foreign minister, who had planned to skip the meeting, canceled a scheduled trip in light of the Paris attacks and traveled to Vienna to huddle with his counterparts on Syria.

Mr. Kerry has stepped up the pace of the diplomatic effort on Syria in recent weeks in order to make headway on the seemingly intractable situation. On Thursday, he cast the effort as a central element of the Obama administration’s strategy to marshal a broad international effort to isolate and defeat the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, which claimed responsibility for the Paris attacks.

Mr. Fabius said Saturday that the terrorism in his country underlined the urgency of the Syria talks.

“One of the topics of the meeting today in Vienna is precisely to see concretely how we can reinforce international coordination in the fight against Daesh,” he said, using the Arabic acronym for the group.

Mr. Lavrov said the attacks should prompt a more urgent effort to go after the Islamic State.

“We have to strongly reiterate that there should be no tolerance vis-à-vis terrorists,” Mr. Lavrov said after his meeting with Mr. Kerry. Referring to the Nusra Front, Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria, he added, “There could be no justification for us not doing much more to defeat ISIL, Al Nusra and the like, and I hope that this meeting as well would allow us to move forward.”

1 comentario:

  1. Recuerdo noticias de abril de este año en que un General francés declaraba ante la Asamblea Nacional que la inteligencia norteamericana proporcionó pruebas falsas sobre una supuesta invasión de Rusia a Ucrania.

    Declaraciones en sentido similar hizo un contraalmirante de la misma nacionalidad, criticando el papel de la OTAN respecto a Rusia.

    ¿No tendrá esto que ver con los atentados que sufrió Francia?