martes, 11 de agosto de 2015

Brasil: ¿Golpe blando en puerta?


Las noticias que nos llegan diariamente desde el Brasil son inquietantes. Un poco por factores propios, otro poco por la ciclicidad brasileña y otro poco porque estamos en depresión y las economías netamente exportadoras la sufren en forma particular, lo cierto es que la economía de ese país atraviesa una fase alarmante. Pero a todo esto se agrega el sospechoso accionar de: (1) los medios (cuándo no), más ridículamente apocalípticos que nunca; (2) el partido judicial que, aprovechando la (abundante, digámoslo) corrupción del aparato estatal brasileño, están generando una lenta, calculada sangría y crucifixión de funcionarios cada vez más cercanos a Dilma; (3) finalmente, una serie de sospechosas agrupaciones preocupadas por “la decencia” la “moralidad” (sí, todos somos Nisman, viste?), etc., las que golpean cada vez más fuerte al gobierno y a sus diversas instituciones. Para lo que sigue, recuérdese que “SITREP” es una forma abreviada de “Situational Report” (informe de situación). Leemos en The Vineyard of the Saker una nota producida por “Kubla Khan” desde Sao Paulo:


Título: SITREP from Brazil – is a coup d’etat next?

Texto: On the night of July 30 the “Lula Institute”, which was created and is chaired by the leftist leader known internationally, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, was attacked by a homemade bomb. The same Lula, elected twice president of the republic, the same Lula that through aggressive social policies, drew 41 million people out of poverty line, in the program to combat hunger and social inclusion regarded as the greatest of modern times.

This is, so far, the apex of the climate of hate fomented by the great majority of the Brazilian media, along with the opposition parties, eager for a power outlet through the Impeachment of President Dilma Rousseff.

In an unprecedented campaign, the president has been the target of daily, uninterrupted attacks, led by the conservative press arms, and through social media, especially Facebook. The so-called “panelaços” – (demonstrations in which any statement of president in TV, people leave at the windows and the sidewalks banging pots), are also a constant, which along with some demonstrations of large-scale, where thousands of people, most of middle and upper class, took to the streets in protests carefully crafted, make the President has the worst approval ratings in the history of the country, including beating the indexes of former President Fernando Collor, months before being ousted by impeachment, in 1992.

According to the excellent article by William Engdahl, US, engineer and jurisprudent (Princeton, USA, 1966), a graduate degree in comparative economics (Stockholm, Sweden-1969) in one of the newspapers most sold in the US, the New Eastern Outlook – “The reason why Washington wants to get rid of Rousseff is clear. As president, she is one of the five BRICS heads who signed the formation of the Development Bank of BRICS, with an initial authorized capital of $ 100 billion and a reserve fund of another 100 billion dollars. It also supports a new international reserve currency to complement and eventually replace the dollar. ”

Also according to the journalist: “During the rough campaign between Rousseff and Aécio Neves (the opposition candidate), the opposition began to spread rumors that Rousseff, who until then had never been linked to corruption so common in Brazilian politics, would be involved in a scandal involving the state-owned oil giant, Petrobras. In September, a former director of Petrobras claimed that Rousseff government officials had received commissions on contracts signed with oil giant, these committees which then would have been used to buy congressional support. Rousseff was a member of the board of directors of the company until 2010.

Now, on November 2, 2014, just days after the hard-fought victory for Rousseff, the largest US financial auditing firm, “Price Waterhouse Coopers” refused to sign the financial statements for the third quarter of Petrobras. The PWC demanded a more thorough investigation of the scandal involving the state-run oil company.

The Price Waterhouse Coopers is one of the audit firms, tax consulting and corporate and more tainted business scandals in the United States. She was involved in 14 years of covering up fraud in the AIG insurance group, which was at the heart of the US financial crisis of 2008.

Also according to Engdahl: “With the deepening of relations between the Rousseff government and China as well as with Russia and other partners of the BRICS, in May 2013, the US vice president, Joe Biden, came to Brazil his agenda focused on the development of gas and oil. He met with President Dilma Rousseff, who had succeeded his mentor Lula in 2011. Biden also met with leading energy companies in Brazil, including Petrobras.

Although little has been said publicly, Rousseff declined to reverse the 2009 oil law in order to adapt it to the interests of Biden and Washington. Days after Biden’s visit came the revelations of Snowden on the NSA, that the United States was also spying Rousseff and senior officials from Petrobras. She was furious, and that September, denounced the Obama administration before the UN General Assembly in violation of international law. In protest, she canceled a scheduled visit to Washington. After that, relations United States-Brazil suffered severe cooling.

Before Biden’s visit in May 2013, Rousseff had a popularity rate of 70 percent. Less than two weeks after the visit of Biden to Brazil in nationwide protests called by a well-organized group called “Movement Free Pass”, relating to a nominal increase of 10 percent in bus fares, they led the country virtually to a standstill and they became very violent. The protests bore the mark of a typical “Color Revolution” or destabilization via Twitter that Biden seems to follow wherever it presents itself. Within weeks, the popularity of Rousseff fell to 30 percent.”

On March 17, 2014 began an overt operation by Federal Judge Sergio Moro, setting off a wave of arrests of politicians and builders contractors, unprecedented in the history of the country. Key figures and presidents of the largest construction companies in Brazil, as well as figures from the first and second levels of the PT (Party of President and Lula) have been and are being targeted by this operation. Now we must remember that corruption is endemic in the country, and although similar political situations of other parties, including the opposition key figures such as the president of the Chamber of deputies and politicians from the main opposition party, the PSDB, are involved in the same crimes, no action is taken against them – even when charged or cited by the prisoners in winning denunciations system, its processes are filed, thus demonstrating that the target of operations is not fighting corruption, but rather discredit the PT and all circle of power around the president, and obviously derail Petrobrás as a state enterprise.

Note: a draft law presented by opposition senator and former candidate defeated by Lula in former presidency elections, José Serra (PSDB-SP), which predicts the end of compulsory Petrobras as the operator and have at least 30% share in the consortium created for the pre-salt exploration, paving the way for the subdivision of operations to foreign companies, mainly from the United States.

Even in the economic, earlier this year, the President was forced to take unpopular measures at the beginning of his second term, the so-called Fiscal adjustments, to mitigate the effects of the global economic crisis, that through enormous effort of his government, just now beats to the country’s ports. These measures – increase in public rates, spending cuts in social programs, and curbing demand for luxury goods, though necessary, were taken soon after an election win with a small margin of votes, which caused more discontent in low class populations, mainly in the North and Northeast, the poorest and most decisive in the victory of president in the 2014 elections.

But let’s see if the numbers of the Brazilian economy justify all this revolt of the population:

- Inflation target set for the year: 4.5%
- Unemployment (first quarter of year): 7.9%
- GDP: R $ 5.52 trillion

So we note that, despite living a time of downturn in the economy, the country is far from a state to justify such indignation and anger by society. Also draws attention the fact that despite the price increases, the population keeps going fiercely shopping, including luxuries, which has values ??that do not make it possible to purchase in a state of economic chaos.

Another wave of rumors give hypothesized the resignation of the president, an unlikely decision, especially if we take into account his recent statements in favor of the votes obtained by free elections, and its history as a prisoner tortured by the Brazilian military regime, in the 60s – “born in middle-class family, he became interested in socialism in their youth, shortly after the military coup of 1964 and then joined the armed struggle of the left: he became a member of the National Liberation Command (HILL) and later the Vanguard Armada Revolutionary Palmares (VAR-Palmares) – both organizations supported the armed struggle against the military regime. He spent nearly three years imprisoned (1970-1972): first by the military Operation Bandeirante (OBAN), where he underwent torture sessions, and later by the Department of Political and Social Order (DOPS)”. (Source Wikipedia)

So the country follows in suspense, and under the ghost two demonstrations scheduled for this month: on the 16th – where the opposition calls for impeachment of the president, and on the 20th – where the popular movements hold demonstrations in support and reparation to the president.


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