viernes, 3 de marzo de 2017

Colapsa el comercio en la India


El último experimento neoliberal en la India, de la mano de su primer ministro Narendra Modi (foto), trajo consecuencias. La desmonetización (esto es, la eliminación del papel moneda de la economía) está provocando una caída brutal de las ventas y, al mismo tiempo un repunte importante de la inflación. Ay, Modi (atenti, Mauricio!). Leemos en Zero Hedge:


Título: Indian Economy Collapses As 'Demonetization' Crushes Small Business

Texto: The Sales Managers Index (SMI) is one of the earliest monthly indicators of Indian economic activity. February's data shows the catastrophic after-effects of the December demonetization policy which was intended to crack down on corruption and 'black money'.

The February Headline SMI has fallen to an index level of 60.2 in unadjusted terms, the lowest level in over 3 years.

Source: WorldEconomics.com


Managers are reporting a big drop in monthly sales for both the consumer and industrial sectors, with small to medium size businesses that predominantly deal with cash transactions, being hardest hit.


Source: WorldEconomics.com


Furthermore, the cash policy has had the effect of forcing up the overall Prices Charged Index (53.6) to levels not seen since spring 2013, when the Rupee was valued at ?53.92 against the USD, it is now trading at ?67.29. Some panel members are expecting the currency to continue to fall.


Source: WorldEconomics.com


Higher inflation in the consumer goods and services sectors, represented by the Prices Charged Index for Services (54.7), is pushing the valuation of the Rupee to even greater levels of undervaluation on the World Price Index (WPI) scale. The WPI under valuation level for the Indian Rupee is currently -41% using February data. Businesses are taking advantage of the situation created by such an undervalued currency, with the majority of panel members feeling that the current FX level is becoming advantageous for their businesses.

Overall, February SMI data suggests an erratic situation for Indian businesses as they meet market challenges with considerably lower levels of confidence, slower monthly sales and higher prices caused by the currency situation.

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