sábado, 16 de enero de 2016

Corrección en ciernes


Los mercados viven un momento que suele denominarse “corrección”. Ayer viernes hubo una interesante corrección. Veamos cómo lo vio CNN.money:


Título: Dow plunges 500 points as fear grips markets

Texto: Fear has overtaken U.S. markets. Crude oil and China remain the major culprits. The Dow plunged as many as 536 points on Friday afternoon, leaving the index on track for its worst day since the late summer market freakout. The Dow is now down about 425 points, while the S&P 500 lost 2.7% and the Nasdaq plunged 3%.

The wave of selling dashes hopes that recent signs of stability in the market signified Wall Street's panic attack was over. On Thursday, the Dow jumped 228 points, its best day since early December.

"The sentiment is dominated by fear. Ahead of a long weekend, no one wants to be exposed," said Sam Stovall, managing director of U.S. equity strategy at S&P Capital IQ.

Friday's market slide was fueled by another crash in crude oil prices and China's stock market tumbling into a bear market. Stocks are now flirting with critical levels. The S&P 500 broke below the 1,867.01 level it plummeted to during the market mayhem last August. The Nasdaq is also now on pace to close at the lowest level since October 2014.

"There's a mad rush for the exits! There is one direction to this trade in the immediate term: Lower," said Peter Kenny, an independent market strategist and founder of Kenny's Commentary.
Even the White House weighed in on the recent market turmoil. White House spokesman Josh Earnest said on Friday officials are closely watching market movements and their potential impact on the U.S. economy.


Oil crash is spooking Wall Street

Stocks have moved almost in lockstep with the price of oil, which plunged another 6% on Friday to as low as $29.28 a barrel. That's the cheapest it's been since late 2003. Friday's plunge was fueled by signs that sanctions on Iran could be lifted as soon as this weekend, exacerbating the supply glut rocking the oil market.

While the oil plunge is great for many consumers because it lowers the price of gas at the pump, it's been a big negative for stocks lately. First, cheap oil eats into already-shrinking profits for energy companies. Many of the biggest losers on the S&P 500 on Friday were energy stocks, with Marathon Oil (MRO), Chesapeake Energy (CHK) and Murphy Oi (MUR)l all plunging 8% or more.
Secondly, the oil crash is raising fears that poor economic performance around the world is sapping demand. After all, oil demand is seen as a strong indicator of growth.


Warning signs flash on U.S. economy

Also, it's not clear consumers are really spending their gas savings at the stores. The government said on Friday that U.S. retail sales dipped in the critical month of December. That's never good.
Economic concerns were reinforced by a new gauge on New York-area manufacturing activity, which unexpectedly plunged in January.

Meanwhile, shares of Intel (INTC, Tech30), one of the blue chips of the tech world, plunged 8% as the slowdown in PC demand dented profits more than feared.


Stocks in China keep crumbling

Wall Street continues to take its cues from China, where the Shanghai Composite plunged another 3.6% on Friday. That leaves the benchmark index more than 20% below its December high and in a bear market.

China's stock market has been rocked by the slowdown in the country's economy and Beijing's failed efforts to stabilize financial markets. The turbulence has eroded confidence on Wall Street that Chinese authorities have a firm grip on the situation.

Signs of fear in financial markets are present everywhere. On Friday the 10-year Treasury yield slipped below the 2% level for the first time since October. That doesn't happen when things are going well.

Gold, which tends to rise when people are scared, popped 2% and to $1,095 an ounce on Friday.

CNNMoney's Fear & Greed Index, which tracks several indicators to measure market sentiment, continues to flash "extreme fear" and is back in single digits for the first time since the August freakout. [véase la figura de arriba]


Is this the big 'capitulation day'?

The latest big losses in stocks have some wondering whether Friday could mark a so-called "capitulation day." Those scary down days occur when investors give up on the markets and can be a sign of a bottom in prices.

"We need a big shakeout to shake off the loose hands. Today might be that day," said Stovall, adding that it could mean the end of the declines is near.

To determine whether the bottom is in, Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Capital, is watching to see if the S&P 500 manages to close above the August 24 lows of 1,867.01.

"That might be an important sign that those lows have become permanent and the market is unwilling to push it below that or if this is something more severe," said Luschini.


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Por su parte, así lo veía Russia Today:

Título: Wall Street in panic: Dow Jones, S&P 500 plunge 3 percent as oil prices fall

Texto: Fear gripped markets on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Index falling more than 500 points. Global stocks suffered in the wake of oil prices dropping below $30 a barrel and sell-offs occurring in the Chinese stock markets.

The S&P 500 fell below its August low of 1,867, trading more than 3 percent lower by midday. The Dow also showed a drop of more than 3 percent, losing over 500 points. The Nasdaq composite lost more than 4 percent during the same period.

The sell-off dashed hopes about stability on Wall Street, coming just a day after US markets had their best day in over a month. On Thursday, the Dow had jumped 228 points, a nearly two percent increase for the day.

The panicked selling was sparked by a nearly 6 percent slide in US-produced crude oil that pushed prices below the critical $30 a barrel mark. Investor anxiety in mainland China compounded global worry, with the Shanghai Composite dropping 3.6 percent.

The Federal Reserve’s recent policy of hiking interest rates may have led financial professionals to sell equities, according to Boom Bust’s Edward Harrison:

“Many analysts look at markets as forward-looking, meaning they rise or fall in anticipation of how earnings and the economy will fare in the future.” Harrison said. “Therefore, many market watchers are taking the recent fall in equity markets in the US and globally are a sign that financial conditions have tightened too much in the wake of the Fed’s first rate hike. This should be a signal to the Fed that its present tightening policy bias now carries significant downside risk both for markets and the real economy.”

As of 1:10 pm EST, the Dow industrial was down 489 points (2.99 percent), and the S&P 500 had dropped 55 points (2.9 percent).

The Dow industrial and the S&P 500 indexes have dropped nearly 9% so far this year, while the Nasdaq has slid by 11%.


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Finalmente, Zero Hedge resumía:

Título: Here's A Chart You Won't See On CNBC

What goes up, comes down considerably faster.

For global stocks, Bloomberg notes, the way down ($15 trillion lost in 7 months) has been much easier than the climb up ($30 trillion added in 4 years).



 Source: Bloomberg

With markets from Asia to Europe entering bear markets this month, stocks worldwide have lost more than $14 trillion, or 20 percent, in value from a record last June amid worries over global growth and deepening oil declines. The pace of the drop has been so fast that it has already unraveled about half of the rally since a low in 2011.


And here is a bonus chart from Bank of America, which looks at the S&P on an equal weighted basis, to avoid such aberrations as the collapsing market breadth phenomenon, also known as FANG. Spot the symmetry.

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