martes, 7 de agosto de 2012

Repasando el tablero


A medida que se acerca el peligro de una guerra global en Medio Oriente, vale la pena repasar algunos conceptos de lo que se ha dado en denominar “El nuevo Gran Juego” (en referencia a “El Gran Juego”, título que describe las rivalidades entre los imperios ruso y británico en Asia Central durante el Siglo XIX). Una breve descripción del mismo aparece en Wikipedia (no hay traducción al español). El mapa es, también, sumamente instructivo. 

The New Great Game
The New Great Game is a term used to describe the conceptualization of modern geopolitics in Central Eurasia as a competition between the United States, the United Kingdom and other NATO countries against Russia, the People's Republic of China and other Shanghai Cooperation Organisation countries for "influence, power, hegemony and profits in Central Asia and the Transcaucasus".[1] It is a reference to "The Great Game", the political rivalry between the British and Russian Empires in Central Asia during the 19th century.
Many authors and analysts view this new "game" as centering around regional petroleum politics. Now, instead of competing for actual control over a geographic area, "pipelines, tanker routes, petroleum consortiums, and contracts are the prizes of the new Great Game".[2] The term has become prevalent throughout the literature about the region, appearing in book titles, academic journals, news articles, and government reports.[3] Pakistani author Ahmed Rashid claims he coined the term in a self-described "seminal" magazine article published in 1997,[4][5] however uses of the term can be found prior to the publication of his article.[6][7][8][9][10]

In a leaked US Embassy cable released by WikiLeaks, it was reported that Prince Andrew, Duke of York, supports the concept of a New Great Game: Addressing the Ambassador directly, Prince Andrew then turned to regional politics. He stated baldly that “the United Kingdom, Western Europe (and by extension you Americans too)” were now back in the thick of playing the Great Game. More animated than ever, he stated cockily: “And this time we aim to win!”[11]

Difference with the Great Game / Noopolitik in the New Great Game
After Halford Mackinder, in The Grand Chessboard Zbigniew Brzezinski had emphasized the unparalleled value Central Asia had among US geostrategic imperatives. Yet in his later book, "The Choice: Global dominance or Global Leadership"[12] Brzezinski notably argued the USA should resort to more Soft Power in attempting to politically command key areas of central Asia. Similarly, Idriss Aberkane claimed Noopolitik was playing a more central role than ever in the balance of power of the New Great Game, as innovation was the simplest way for Great Gamers to alter the complex status quo and regional balance of power. On the Soft Power side James Glanz and John Markoff reporting for the International Herald Tribune wrote in June 12, 2012 that the Obama Administration was deploying shadow connection networks to provide political allies in the New Great Game with direct access to the internet and bypass local censorship, thus granting them access to direct network-centric resistance.
"The Obama administration is leading a global effort to deploy “shadow” Internet and mobile phone systems that dissidents can use to undermine repressive governments that seek to silence them by censoring or shutting down telecommunications networks."[13]

Aberkane therefore argued that the projection of development and Confidence building measures was gaining momentum as a means to leverage political intercourses by other means in Central Asia, and that such was a novel feature of the New Great Game as opposed to the Great Game
Man is thus free to demonstrate the realist political profitability of peace and the millennium development goals in this new round of the Great Game (...) we anticipate it be defined by noopolitik and the knowledge economy, beyond geography, the most promising means for any Great Gamer to decisively prevail over the many others.[14]

Similarity with the Great Game / "The Graveyard of Empires"
Afghanistan expert Seth Jones published In the Graveyard of Empires: America's War in Afghanistan, a book analyzing Afghanistan's popular name as "The Graveyard of Empires".[15] It is argued that Afghanistan is a position of the Great Game that is impossible to hold over a protracted period, which seems to have remained an invariant from the Great Game to the New Great Game[14] 

Notas:
 1. Edwards, 85. 
 2. Brysac & Meyer, xxiii.
 3. Edwards, 83. 
 4. Rashid 2000, 145. 
 5. Rashid, Ahmed (April 10, 1997). "Central Asia: Power Play". Far Eastern Economic Review. 
 6. Geyer, Georgie Anne (February 17, 1992). "U.S. Flag Waves Inside A Proud New Nation". Universal Press Syndicate. 
 7. "The New Great Game in Asia". The New York Times. January 2, 1996. 
 8. Ahrari, Mohammed E.; James Beal (January 1996). "The New Great Game in Muslim Central Asia". McNair Paper 47. Institute for National Strategic Studies and National Defense University. 
 9. Sneider, Daniel (May 5, 1992). "New 'Great Game' In Central Asia". The Christian Science Monitor. 
10. Cohen, Ariel (January 25, 1996). "The New "Great Game": Oil Politics in the Caucasus and Central Asia". Backgrounder #1065. The Heritage Foundation. 
11. "Wikileaks files: US ambassador criticised Prince Andrew". BBC. November 30, 2010. 
12. Brzezinski, Z. The Choice: Global Dominance or Global Leadership, NYC: Basic Books 2004 
13. Glanz, James; Markoff, John (June 12, 2011). "U.S. Underwrites Internet Detour Around Censors". The International Herald Tribune. 
14. a b "Brzezinski on a US Berezina: anticipating a new, New World Order". e-International Relations. 
15. Milton Bearden, Afghanistan, Graveyard of Empires Foreign Affairs November/December 2011


References:

Brysac, Shareen; Meyer, Karl (1999), Tournament of Shadows: The Great Game and the Race for Empire in Asia, Washington, D.C.: Counterpoint, ISBN 0-349-11366-1 

Edwards, Matthew (March 2003), "The New Great Game and the new great gamers: disciples of Kipling and Mackinder", Central Asian Survey 22 (1): 83–103, doi:10.1080/0263493032000108644 

Rashid, Ahmed (2000), Taliban: Islam, Oil and the New Great Game in Central Asia, London: I. B. Tauris, ISBN 1-86064-417-1

No hay comentarios:

Publicar un comentario en la entrada