Viena

Federica Mogherini, hoy, en la Conferencia de Viena

Acá abajo va una nota que creo que es uno de los hechos estratégicos del lustro: empieza a haber acuerdo sobre el fin de la “guerra civil” siria. Eso es lo que parece haber ocurrido hoy en la conferencia de Viena sobre ese país. Lo de París podría haber jugado un papel, no tanto interno (convencer a las élites pro-NATO) sino de cara al público europeo y norteamericano; igual, está por verse. Lo que es seguro, chicos, es que las piezas del ajedrez geopolítico global están en pleno movimiento.

Hay algo en el aire, algo difícil de discernir. Astroboy arriesga algunas hipótesis sueltas, que se le ocurren en este momento. Algo de todo esto se está cocinando; llevará su tiempo en concretarse, claro. Las hipótesis no necesariamente están relacionadas ni tienen que ver con lo de ayer en París. Varias de ellas son bastante optimistas; total, hay tiempo de sobra para que la realidad diga lo contrario:

1. Se establecerá un cronograma de elecciones en Siria. Queda por ver si Bashar Al Assad en persona participará de las mismas. Astroboy se inclina a pensar que sí.

2. Rusia se asume como potencia militar de alcance continental (Eurasia). Ya no se jode con los rusos. Se sugiere que pronto cesan, en cascada, las sanciones a ese país.

3. Astroboy sugiere que el conflicto Ucraniano comienza a resolverse en 2016. Acuerdos de Minsk2 + patada en el orto (por el voto) a las actuales autoridades.

4. Vladimir Putin consolida su prestigio como gran estratega global. Su intervención en Siria ha sido, hasta ahora, oportuna y bastante impecable.

5. Angela Merkel, canciller alemana, y Francois Hollande, presidente francés, entran en un cono de sombra del cual no saldrán nunca más.

6. Alemania comienza a despegarse suavemente del eje angloamericano. El gasoducto Nord-stream 2 confirma la existencia de un eje ruso-alemán.

7. Comienza el ocaso de la Casa de Saud. Sigue Qatar y cualquier otro emirato que de ahora en adelante saque los pies del plato.

8. El gobierno y parte importante del establishment político de los EEUU toma nota de que, o bien acompaña los cambios, o los cambios se lo llevan puesto. La era de los neocones se comienza a declinar.

9. Cesa la expansión de la NATO por el este europeo.

10. La unidad europea será puesta a prueba en forma creciente. Posiblemente desaparezca el “espacio Shengen” y se vuelva al control soberano de las fronteras nacionales.

11. Comienza a cerrarse el grifo de la inmigración masiva a europa de refugiados del norte de Africa y Medio Oriente. Ayudará muchísimo que la NATO se deje de meter donde no la llaman.

En fin. Veremos. Mientras tanto, leemos en el sitio iraní PressTV:

Título: 'Very good' meeting held on Syria: Mogherini

Epígrafe: European Union foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini has described as "very good" the latest round of international talks on the Syrian crisis in Vienna.

Texto: "The process can definitively start" toward reaching a settlement for the nearly five-year conflict in Syria, Mogherini told journalists at the end of the day-long talks held in the Austrian capital on Saturday.

The fresh round of talks on the Syrian crisis opened in Vienna with the participation of senior representatives from 17 countries, the UN, EU and Arab League.

Ceasefire by year end: German FM

Also speaking following the talks, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier said the Vienna meeting had resulted in an agreement to convene meetings between the opposition and the government of President Bashar al-Assad and establish a ceasefire by January 1.

"No one is lying to themselves about the difficulties we are facing, but the determination to find a solution has progressed in 14 days," since the first round of talks in Vienna.

"It still appears Utopian but we have all the powers around the table," said Steinmeier.

He also said that there will be efforts to create a new constitution for the war-torn country and attempts to create a transitional government within six months.

Need for global coalition to defeat Daesh: Lavrov

Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Saturday that there is a growing understanding of the need for the formation of an international coalition to defeat the Daesh Takfiri terrorists.

Lavrov made the remarks during a joint press conference with US Secretary of State John Kerry and UN Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura at the end of the multilateral meeting in Vienna.

He said Moscow and Washington agreed to place the Daesh Takfiris and the al-Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front militants on the common list of terrorist organizations and stressed that other terrorist groups should also be added to it.

"We should fight them for their destruction," the Russian foreign minister said.

He noted that Jordan would oversee a process that would determine which groups should be considered terrorists.

This process should be completed by the time the political process between the government and opposition begins in January, he added.

The Russian foreign minister said most but not all parties to the Vienna talks were in favor of an immediate ceasefire in Syria.

UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon has instructed his officials to work out a plan for monitoring the ceasefire in Syria, Lavrov said.

A view of a conference on the Syria conflict in Vienna, Austria, on November 14, 2015. (AFP Photo)

New Syria meeting in one month

World diplomats seeking to find a solution to the Syrian crisis would meet again in "approximately one month" to review progress towards a ceasefire and the start of a political process in the crisis-hit country, said an official statement issued at the end of the Vienna talks on Saturday.

According to the joint statement released by the United Nations, the participants agreed on a set calendar for a transition government in Syria within six months and elections in 18 months.

The negotiations between the Syrian sides are to establish a "credible, inclusive and nonsectarian" transitional government that would set a schedule for drafting a new constitution within six months, the statement said.

It added that a free and fair election would then be held within 18 months under the supervision of the United Nations.

The previous round of talks on the crisis in Syria was held in the Austrian capital on October 30. Foreign ministers of 17 countries, including Iran, the US and Saudi Arabia, took part in the day-long meeting, which was also attended by envoys from the United Nations and the European Union, to discuss the Syrian crisis.

At the end of the talks, the participants agreed on respecting Syria’s national unity and sovereignty as well as eradicating the terrorist groups operating in the Arab country.

However, they remained at loggerheads over the role that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad would play in Syria’s political process. While some countries, such as the US and its regional allies, want the removal of the Syrian leader as part of a solution to the issue, others, including Iran and Russia, say only the Syrian nation can have a say on the matter.