Más que interesante artículo del analista ruso Nikolai Starikov posteado anteayer en el blog The Vineyard of the Saker (http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com). Acá va:
Título: The US cannot start a major war in Ukraine
Texto: How long the West is willing to pay for the crumbling economy of Ukraine without guarantees of the beginning of its war with Russia? The Western strategy rule says: lost control over the territory - create the Antithesis.
It is possible to understand what is happening in Ukraine, it is much more difficult to evaluate and forecast the development of events. Whatever the case, it is necessary to consistently follow one rule: set emotions aside. Blood, death and destruction are the most serious emotional blows, but if you follow your emotions, neither proper assessment nor correct forecast will result.
Therefore, as hard it can be, set emotions aside. To assess the geopolitical game (and this is what we are looking at) we need only the head. Only conscious manipulators want you to think with your heart (and vote with your heart - as for Yeltsin in 1996).
The United States and the West are facing of the strongest crises in its history. The strength and depth of the problem are compounded by the fact that ... the West has won. It incorporated practically all of Europe, crushed, to varying degrees, the whole world with a few exceptions.
Therein lies the problem – all its life the West lived by robbery. Now those who can be robbed are fewer and fewer, and those with whom it is necessary to share the "stolen goods", that is the standard of living that rests on unrestricted dollar emissions, are more and more. Hence the huge national debt. In the United States it is 18 trillion dollars, but such debts, and even worse ratios of the national debt to GDP, exist in all so-called developed countries.
What solution the US and its closest allies are looking for in this situation? It is now evident to everyone. The solution is war. Chaos. But this chaos and this war must lead to a "controlled collapse".
As a result the US must eliminate two threats to its power - China and Russia. Ideally, make them clash with each other. To do this the US need to change regime in one of these countries. Obviously, the Americans think that the regime change in Russia is an easier task.
The question is how to achieve this? Orange technologies did not work in 2011, Putin became president again.
What the West does when it loses in any territory is most important for understanding the events in Ukraine.
When we talk about a Western loss we mean the failure of its plans and loss of control over a certain area, full or partial.
What do the Western strategists do in such a situation?
1949. Britain is "kicked out" of India. Before leaving the British set up the Anti-India - a new state of Pakistan. Tensions, military conflicts between the new states ensue. In short, many opportunities for the Anglo-Saxons.
Again in 1949. As a result of the civil war in China, pro-Soviet Mao Zedong wins. The US lose control over China. What do they do? Create the Anti-China -Taiwan. Evacuate there the army of Chiang Kai-shek under the protection of the US Navy. Tensions, the permanent possibility of war between China and the Anti-China ensue. Tiananmen Square, 1989, Beijing - who can tell the "desperate" mainland Chinese from the agents of the Taiwanese special services?
Attention please. In the geopolitical game to grant a diplomatic recognition is to follow the current 'national' interests, and nothing more. First, the United States recognizes Taiwan as China. For those who do not know: until 1973 the representative of Taiwan at the United Nations was seated as the representative of China. But later Washington changes its position, recognizes Beijing and ceases to recognize Taipei. At the same time it strongly supports Taiwan and prevents the reunification of the two "Chinas"
Let's not stray far into history. The rule of the permanent Anglo-Saxon Western strategy states: lost control over the territory - create Antithesis.
In 2011 the West loses control of Russia - not completely yet, but its plans to deny Putin another presidential term fail. The dismantling of the fifth column begins, Russia strongly defends its interests in the world.
What is the West to do? Create Antithesis. That is the Anti-Russia.
And the Anglo-Saxons start creating it, the soil is prepared in Ukraine. Propaganda starts in 1991 and even earlier, militants are trained, money is allocated, the elite is bought and well fed.
According to the US plans, Yanukovych should be removed during the elections in 2015. Remove him in such a way as to launch anti-Russian hysteria and begin to create the Anti-Russia from Ukraine. Circumstances force an earlier start, but according to the main rule: not the peaceful departure of Yanukovych is required, but a bloody overthrow in order to blame Russia.
What is happening today in Ukraine is nothing more than the creation of the Anti-Russia. Propaganda, hate, readiness to destroy and kill on the part of the nationalists and some deceived common citizens.
Where do the US go with that? To war between Ukraine and Russia. On the "initiative" of Ukraine. When? When they pump up the Ukrainian army, equip it, create it, and prepare it. It will take about five years. After that the US will try to pit the two parts of the same nation against each other, set Ukraine against Russia. Occasion - Crimea.
Were the Crimea not reunited with Russia, it would still remain an excuse. Basing the Russian army in Crimea, pro-Russian population living there would give a lot of opportunities for the organization of conflicts and provocations. Therefore, regardless of the actions of Putin and the people of Crimea the Western plan would remain the same.
What can stop the development of this terrible scenario of sliding into a major war between brothers?
Support of those in Ukraine itself who do not agree with this turn of events.
The West creates the Anti-Russia, Russia must help and support the Anti-anti-Russia.
When in the Southeast of Ukraine the people who do not agree with the Kiev's coup rose up, few had a clear idea that they were “blocking the road” of such a terrible scenario. The presence of the Anti-anti-Russia as a part of a federalized Ukraine, refusing either to arm for the West, nor to pull the chestnuts out of the fire for it, blocked the Western plans to unleash the Ukrainian-Russian war. Remember the end of the spring of 2014?
Moscow's insistent calls for the territorial integrity of Ukraine, for federalization, for negotiations. Moscow needs a unified Ukraine, where the pro-Russian part of the society will "tie" the hands of the militants and bought politicians, and will not allow to draw the whole Ukrainian people into the war.
The West needs not the peace, not the prosperity of Ukraine. It needs a militarized state with an aggressive ideology in the form of hatred directed against Russia.
Kiev begins aggressive actions against Donbass. Immediately the propaganda about the "terrorists" and the Russian military starts. Military actions, conducted with cruelty to civilians, give the West two possibilities:
- To win by military means and then start the planned collapse of the economy of Ukraine as the beginning of its preparation for war with Russia. The well fed do not want to fight. The West can blame Russia for the difficulties and hardships, whereas the military service provides an income, albeit a tiny one;
- To draw Russia into war, forcing her to send troops into Ukraine. The defeat of the Ukrainian armed forces does not matter for the West. It wants not the victory but the war itself.
And the more Ukrainian citizens will die in the fratricidal war, the better for the West – the rebellious Slavic nation eliminates itself. As a result of the war in Ukraine the West will try to repeat 1917 and "overthrow the bloody Kremlin regime." All of it in order to take the course toward preparation of the war between Russia and China.
And then a problem happened. Neither military success nor the military invasion by Russia and its participation in the civil conflict was achieved.
And then what? That's what.
The existence of the DNR and LNR as Anti-anti-Russia is the key to inability of the West to start a war between Ukraine and Russia.
The cannonball on its leg does not let the United States to push Kiev toward this Great War with tens of thousands, hundreds of thousands of victims.
That is why Moscow is helping Donbass in every way possible that is why Sergei Lavrov says that we are for the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
That is why Russia does not recognize the DNR and LNR as independent states. To recognize them, to let them secede means to launch countdown for war with Ukraine. In this scenario the Western plan kicks in: there is Russia, there is Anti-Russia, and there is Novorossia. Anti-anti-Russia is no more. In case of incorporation of Donbass into Russia, those in Washington will stand up and give a standing ovation. This is it: the war becomes practically inevitable. The image of Russia as the enemy is created by Russia itself.
In today's situation the Russian tactics in Ukraine are the only correct ones. US must pay to support 40 million people, Russia must help 3 million people in the Donbass and 1.5 million refugees. Moscow constantly insists on negotiations, not allowing the aggressor being shaped by the west to "remove the weight" from its leg, not allowing DNR and LNR to be defeated militarily.
How long will the West be willing to pay for the crumbling economy of Ukraine without guarantees to begin its war with Russia? These guys do nothing without a reason, they do not throw money away. Even to the militants in Chechnya in the 90's they gave no dollars, instead they gave them clichés for printing fake dollars.
Self-financing - is the principle of the Anglo-Saxon politics, in extreme cases a refund within a short period of time. A striking example: the Bolsheviks paying with Russia's gold through Swedish banks and the subsequent concessions, today's Libyan "freedom fighters" with the oil dollars leaving Libya for unknown destinations.
Time is of great importance today. The bet of the West – to organize a new Maidan in Russia, now that the path to war in Ukraine was blocked by the courage and determination of the DNR and LNR militia fighters. The bet of Russia – wait till the West loses its interest in Ukraine because of high costs without any tangible benefits.
Washington's desire to get “at least something" leads to the pressure on Europe and the paradoxical desire of the Europeans not to allow the construction of the "South Stream".
Paradox? No paradox. Washington wants to use the instability of Ukraine at least for a possibility of gas blackmail of Moscow. And Europe.
That is the essence of current and past events in Ukraine.
And the last thing I want to say in this regard.
Few in today's Ukraine understand what a tremendous role the courage of the Donbass residents plays in today's world politics. They are rescuing the entire Russian world today. And the paradox, they save the lives of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian citizens.
The same children that today are "jumping" in Ukrainian schools, whose parents collect money for ATO, support the Kiev authorities, in case of defeat Donbass, in a very short period of time they will become gun fodder, according to the US plan.
That's what all of us need to remember, regardless of our current citizenship.