lunes, 12 de septiembre de 2016

Tres minutos para la medianoche


Recordarán lo del Reloj del Día del Juicio: una manera figurada de contar cuan cerca estamos de la hecatombe final. Al respecto, la nota es de Krasimir Ivandjiiski y apareció originalmente en el sitio ruso Strogosekretno; la traducción al inglés (de Valentina Tzoneva), fue reproducida hoy en SouthFront. Acá va:


Título: At the threshold of a Third World War

Subtítulo: The Nuclear Clock is at Three to Twelve

Texto: The dynamics of the events is huge. The world flew into a new zone of turbulence – Brexit in England, after which the disintegration of the EU will follow; the Warsaw Summit of NATO, where the pact announced a new cold war with Russia; the attempt for a coup d’état in Turkey; the humiliation of the Russian sportsmen before Rio; the monstrous terrorists acts in Germany, France, Japan, Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria; the shooting in the “quiet waters” of Armenia and Kazakhstan; the tension in the remote South China Sea, which can become very close; the millions of refugees moving to Europe…

August really became the hottest month in the last three/four years. The so-called clock of “Judgement Day,” or the minutes and hours which separate us from a nuclear Armageddon points at “three to twelve.” There hasn’t been anything like this since the Caribbean crisis, but at that time there was no such clock.

The world sank in the so-called summer “dog days.” The phrase “dog days” refers to the hot, heavy days of the summer in the regions around the Mediterranean. The accumulated heat transformed itself into a geopolitical and military escalation, which turned August into “the big scheme of the matter.”

Some analysts wrote that they are under the impression that they are back in the 1980s, particularly after Islamic State declared a terrorist war on Russia too. I will remind you that in 1979, the Americans were drinking champagne after the troops of the USSR entered Afghanistan. They were jubilant. The Soviets got in the trap on their own. Two fronts emerged (with NATO and China), and a third one, this time with the mujahedeen and the Taliban.

Today, Russia is in a more difficult situation with more fronts – with the USA, with NATO, a semi-war with Ukraine, the war in Syria, the new iron curtain from the Baltics to Black Sea, the riots in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan with support from Afghanistan…

Is this a new 1980? No, it is not. At that time, the USSR had a powerful economic, military and social foundation. Today, the economy of Russia is much weaker; it is gasping for breath; its resources fund is becoming destroyed, and a painful reduction in spending is taking place. Against this background, what happened in the USSR in 1979-1985 looks like a slight headache compared to the current problems.

Actually: there is nothing new. Only a new act in the drama Russia-the West, which started a hundred years ago.

At the end of 1812, Emperor Alexander I informed Kutuzov about the necessity to “go to Europe, to Paris.” Kutuzov objected: “We have nothing to do in Europe.” “We are in Europe now, aren’t we?” the Emperor asked. “Are we in Asia, perhaps?” “We are not in Asia either. We are Russia,” Kutuzov replied.

A hundred and fifty years later, Putin added: ”It is not Russia that is between the East and the West. The East and the West are on the left and on the right of Russia.”

The war against Russia is not for a long time, it is forever. It means that even now, the war against Russia is not to stop Russia from its revival. The stakes are much higher. The point is a global leadership. In this battle, America is losing and this provokes its ruling elite to aggression.


The war in Donbas

Since the tradition of the USA is to prepare several provocations simultaneously in different places, they chose the hot August for resuming the military activities of Kiev against Donbas.

The captured terrorist group in Crimea is a war. 

The terrorist act against the leader of the Lugansk People’s Republic, Plotnitski, on 6 August is a war.

A war is also the military structure of NATO coming out to the borders of Russia from the Baltic to the Black Sea. The war is for Russia and for the Ukraine. It is about the strategic security of Russia, above all about the flght-time of the missiles. A Third World War.

That’s why Crimea was returned. A Crimea of NATO would have cut off the European south of Russia. That’s why Russia left the Treaty of Limiting Armed Forces in Europe and positions new interesting “things” in Kaliningrad.

Russia will respond quickly and surprisingly. When? When the general headquarters evaluates that the improper deployment of NATO missiles could destroy Petersburg and Sevastopol. Then the decision will be made instantly. And neither the USA nor NATO will help.

And Putin warned about this at the economic forum in Petersburg.

“We know what will happen year after year, and they know that we know… Russia will no longer play games with the USA and get involved in deals in the dark. Russia is ready for serious negotiations, only if they contribute to collective security. All aspects of global security now lie in ruins. There are no more international guarantees for security and the country responsible for the destruction of the global security is the USA. Russia does not intend to reform the world according to its own views, and will not allow itself to be reformed according to foreign views. Russia will not close itself for the world, but anyone who tries to close it to the world will harvest storms. Russia will not act as the savior of the world either, as in the past. Russia does not want war and does not intend to start a war. But today, Russia can see that the explosion of a global war is almost unavoidable and is prepared and will continue preparing. Russia does not want a war but is not afraid of a war. Those who get Russia involved in this process will learn the real meaning of pain”.

Actually there is nothing to comment on here. Russia does not want a war, but is getting ready for it and if it happens, Russia will enter it with all its power. No hesitations, like in the times of the USSR.


Russia and Turkey

This will probably be the political hit of the year. The failed coup d’état against Erdogan was organised with the participation of the USA. Erdogan turned to the line of getting close with Russia, which led to the meeting with Putin in Petersburg. Important agreements followed. There will be more.

Turkey is in a completely new situation. For Erdogan nothing is finished. The well-prepared and almost successful coup speaks volumes. The military, which was under the constant observation of the services, for the first time managed to bring the matter to a practical finalisation. That’s why now Erdogan must manage the consequences of the putsch and prevent a civil war. Turkey is balancing on the edge and again the “Kurdish problem” comes to the forefront.

The USA changed the competition for arming from the time of the Cold War with the war in the Middle East, its re-shaping, and its attempt at creating a Great Kurdistan, which will include territories populated with Kurds in Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran. The 30 million Kurds in these countries are the biggest ethnic education in the world without a state. The territories where the Kurds are, are rich in energy resources. Strengthening the Kurds in Iraq and Syria will directly affect the Kurds in Turkey.

Looking at the map of Syria, we can see that almost all of the south, west and a part of the north-west are under the control of the government troops of Assad. Exception are those territories around Aleppo occupied by An-Nusra. If the government troops clear these territories from the terrorists, an almost straight line will appear. The government of Assad will control the whole west of Syria. The Kurds will settle in the north-east and Islamic State will be in the south-east and in the central part.

Assad will have to deal with the Kurds after Aleppo and the destruction of Islamic State. If Russia did not get involved, the reshaping of the borders of Syria would have happened according to the scenario of the USA and the Arab monarchies. In this case, Turkey would have played together with the USA and the Turkish Kurds would have remained an internal problem for Turkey. But the warming up between Turkey and Russia defines new realities. The government of Turkey realised that the USA wants to divide the state regardless of Turkey being a NATO member and an ally of the USA. The USA counts on the prospect of the ruled-by-them Kurds as a lasting destabilising element in the Middle East against Turkey. Turkey, however, is a state with a strong national doctrine and will not consider the Anglo-Saxons against its own people.

The redirecting of the foreign policy of Turkey to Russia means that it will be more difficult for the USA to control Turkey. Bashar Assad and the Kurds are almost allies in the fight against Islamic State. The Kurds are supported by the USA and Assad by Russia and Iran who are not questioning the territorial integrity of Syria. That’s why, in perspective, the major ally of Syria in the Middle East regarding the integrity of the two countries will be Turkey. Iran will not agree to the emergence of a Kurdish state as the Iranian Kurds are an explosive factor.

For Erdogan now, it is convenient to have Bashar Assad at his post. It will allow these two counties to resolve the Kurdish problem in their interest, contrary to the USA. However, no one knows how this will happen.


Putin-Netanyahu

This brings us to the unexpected moment in these events of improved relations between Turkey and Russia with Israel, and particularly between Putin and Netanyahu. It is clear that Netanyahu like Bush Jr, Clinton and Obama is the same nominal figure. After all, there must be someone to be a prime minister of Israel. Netanyahu was a representative of the same circles, which were and are opponents of Putin and Russia.

But gradually with his politics in Iraq, Syria, Palestine and Iran, Netanyahu alienated himself to such a degree that he will become inconvenient for the so-called collective West and the establishment in the USA.

Netanyahu (and Israel actually) started to become expendable. Kissinger warned that within 10 years, Israel might disappear. The strategic redirection of the politics of Washington from Israel to Iran has started.

The Middle East is facing crucial changes due to the huge reserves of hydrocarbons. All these little papers – dollars and euros in which the local kings invest will turn into dust in a split of a moment.

The map of the Middle East will change for ever. In it, the space for Israel as a conduit of the interests of the USA and England will be smaller. On this huge energy market from which such figures as Saddam and Gadhafi were removed, to have an ally like Netanyahu with his politics regarding Palestine, Syria, Turkey, Iraq and Iran is boring and even dangerous. In this situation, Netanyahu is trying to secure for himself “a place under the sun,” running between the strong of the day and taking more of the course to Russia and Eurasia. This is something entirely new for the genesis of Israel.

Will Putin consider replacing the USA as a guarantor not only for Netanyahu but for Israel, too? The consequences could be positive or negative, especially in the line Russia-the Arab world.

An interesting situation will take place with the Zionist coup in Kiev. The world will hardly agree to the existence of two “Jewish states.”

I will speak on this topic again in the future.


The Olympics in Rio

Sport, to a high degree, is a sublimation of war. Because of it, in ancient times the wars had stopped. The current sport, however, is a sublimation of a hybrid war that does not stop. That’s why all that is happening now around sport and doping has nothing in common either with sport or with doping.

I will remind you that the war of Georgia with South Ossetia started in 2008 during the Olympics in Beijing.

WADA, the current anti-doping agency, was established in 1999 without Russia and naturally turned against Russia. The International Olympic Committee allowed only some Russian athletes to participate in Rio, although all the rest in the West “take” much more. But the Russians were humiliated. Only some were allowed. They were allowed. They got the mercy.

Because of Afghanistan, the West ruined the Olympics in Moscow in 1980. Today, the West is in Afghanistan but “allows” only some Russians. This world has really gone crazy. Russia is attacked in sections, piece by piece.

All this and a lot more happened in August 2016. Meanwhile, the abovementioned clock of Judgement Day measuring the time to the start of the nuclear war reached three to twelve.


It has never been so close to the beginning of the apocalypse.

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