2015 va a ser el año en que viviremos peligrosamente, parece. El año en el que las rajaduras del Imperio ya no van a poder ser ignoradas. El año en que la locura imperial podría desatar una nueva guerra generalizada. El año en que las potencias emergentes deberán mantener la cabeza más fría que nunca. Reproducimos la
última nota de Pepe Escobar para Asia Times Online:
Título: Russia, China
Mock “Divide and Rule”: The American “Empire of Chaos”
Texto: The Roman Empire
did it. The British Empire copied it in style. The Empire of Chaos has always
done it. They all do it. Divide et impera. Divide and rule – or divide and
conquer. It’s nasty, brutish and effective. Not forever though, like diamonds,
because empires do crumble.
A room with a
view to the Pantheon may be a celebration of Venus – but also a glimpse on the
works of Mars. I had been in Rome essentially for a symposium – Global WARning
– organized by a very committed, talented group led by a former member of
European Parliament, Giulietto Chiesa. Three days later, as the run on the
rouble was unleashed, Chiesa was arrested and expelled from Estonia as persona
non grata, yet another graphic illustration of the anti-Russia hysteria
gripping the Baltic nations and the Orwellian grip NATO has on Europe’s weak
links. [1] Dissent is simply not allowed.
At the symposium,
held in a divinely frescoed former 15th century Dominican refectory now part of
the Italian parliament’s library, Sergey Glazyev, on the phone from Moscow,
gave a stark reading of Cold War 2.0. There’s no real “government” in Kiev; the
US ambassador is in charge. An anti-Russia doctrine has been hatched in
Washington to foment war in Europe – and European politicians are its
collaborators. Washington wants a war in Europe because it is losing the
competition with China.
Glazyev addressed
the sanctions dementia: Russia is trying simultaneously to reorganize the
politics of the International Monetary Fund, fight capital flight and minimize
the effect of banks closing credit lines for many businessmen. Yet the end
result of sanctions, he says, is that Europe will be the ultimate losers
economically; bureaucracy in Europe has lost economic focus as American
geopoliticians have taken over.
Only three days
before the run on the rouble, I asked Rosneft’s Mikhail Leontyev
(Press-Secretary – Director of the Information and Advertisement Department)
about the growing rumors of the Russian government getting ready to apply
currency controls. At the time, no one knew an attack on rouble would be so
swift, and conceived as a checkmate to destroy the Russian economy. After
sublime espressos at the Tazza d’Oro, right by the Pantheon, Leontyev told me
that currency controls were indeed a possibility. But not yet.
What he did
emphasize was this was outright financial war, helped by a fifth column in the
Russian establishment. The only equal component in this asymmetrical war was
nuclear forces. And yet Russia would not surrender. Leontyev characterized
Europe not as a historical subject but as an object: “The European project is
an American project.” And “democracy” had become fiction.
The run on the
rouble came and went like a devastating economic hurricane. Yet you don’t
threat a checkmate against a skilled chess player unless your firepower is
stronger than Jupiter’s lightning bolt. Moscow survived. Gazprom heeded the
request of President Vladimir Putin and will sell its US dollar reserves on the
domestic market. German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier went on the
record against the EU further “turning the screw” as in more counterproductive
sanctions against Moscow. And at his annual press conference, Putin emphasized
how Russia would weather the storm. Yet I was especially intrigued by what he
did not say. [2]
As Mars took
over, in a frenetic acceleration of history, I retreated to my Pantheon room
trying to channel Seneca; from euthymia - interior serenity – to that state of
imperturbability the Stoics defined as aponia. Still, it’s hard to cultivate
euthymia when Cold War 2.0 rages.
Show me your
imperturbable missile
Russia could
always deploy an economic “nuclear” option, declaring a moratorium on its
foreign debt. Then, if Western banks seized Russian assets, Moscow could seize
every Western investment in Russia. In any event, the Pentagon and NATO’s aim
of a shooting war in the European theater would not happen; unless Washington
was foolish enough to start it.
Still, that
remains a serious possibility, with the Empire of Chaos accusing Russia of
violating the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) even as it
prepares to force Europe in 2015 to accept the deployment of US nuclear cruise
missiles.
Russia could
outmaneuver Western financial markets by cutting them off from its wealth of
oil and natural gas. The markets would inevitably collapse – uncontrolled chaos
for the Empire of Chaos (or “controlled chaos”, in Putin’s own words). Imagine
the crumbling of the quadrillion-plus of derivatives. It would take years for
the “West” to replace Russian oil and natural gas, but the EU’s economy would
be instantly devastated.
Just this
lightning-bolt Western attack on the rouble – and oil prices – using the
crushing power of Wall Street firms had already shaken European banks exposed
to Russia to the core; their credit default swaps soared. Imagine those banks
collapsing in a Lehman Brothers-style house of cards if Russia decided to
default – thus unleashing a chain reaction. Think about a non-nuclear MAD
(Mutually Assured Destruction) – in fact warless. Still, Russia is
self-sufficient in all kinds of energy, mineral wealth and agriculture. Europe
isn’t. This could become the lethal result of war by sanctions.
Essentially, the
Empire of Chaos is bluffing, using Europe as pawns. The Empire of Chaos is as
lousy at chess as it is at history. What it excels in is in upping the ante to
force Russia to back down. Russia won’t back down.
Darkness dawns at
the break of chaos
Paraphrasing Bob
Dylan in When I Paint My Masterpiece, I left Rome and landed in Beijing.
Today’s Marco Polos travel Air China; in 10 years, they will be zooming up in
reverse, taking high-speed rail from Shanghai to Berlin. [3]
From a room in
imperial Rome to a room in a peaceful hutong - a lateral reminiscence of
imperial China. In Rome, the barbarians swarm inside the gates, softly
pillaging the crumbs of such a rich heritage, and that includes the local
Mafia. In Beijing, the barbarians are kept under strict surveillance; of course
there’s a Panopticon element to it, essential to assure internal social peace.
The leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) – ever since the
earth-shattering reforms by the Little Helmsman Deng Xiaoping – is perfectly
conscious that its Mandate of Heaven is directly conditioned by the perfect
fine-tuning of nationalism and what we could term “neoliberalism with Chinese characteristics”.
In a different
vein of the “soft beds of the East” seducing Marcus Aurelius, the silky
splendors of chic Beijing offer a glimpse of an extremely self-assured emerging
power. After all, Europe is nothing but a catalogue of multiple sclerosis and
Japan is under its sixth recession in 20 years.
To top it off, in
2014 President Xi Jinping has deployed unprecedented diplomatic/geostrategic
frenzy – ultimately tied to the long-term project of slowly but surely keeping
on erasing US supremacy in Asia and rearranging the global chessboard. What Xi
said in Shanghai in May encapsulates the project; “It’s time for Asians to
manage the affairs of Asia.” At the APEC meeting in November, he doubled down,
promoting an “Asia-Pacific dream”.
Meanwhile, frenzy
is the norm. Apart from the two monster, US$725 billion gas deals – Power of
Siberia and Altai pipeline – and a recent New Silk Road-related offensive in
Eastern Europe, [4] virtually no one in the West remembers that in September
Chinese Prime Minister Li Keiqiang signed no fewer than 38 trade deals with the
Russians, including a swap deal and a fiscal deal, which imply total economic
interplay.
A case can be
made that the geopolitical shift towards Russia-China integration is arguably
the greatest strategic maneuver of the last 100 years. Xi’s ultimate master
plan is unambiguous: a Russia-China-Germany trade/commerce alliance. German
business/industry wants it badly, although German politicians still haven’t got
the message. Xi – and Putin – are building a new economic reality on the
Eurasian ground, crammed with crucial political, economic and strategic
ramifications.
Of course, this
will be an extremely rocky road. It has not leaked to Western corporate media
yet, but independent-minded academics in Europe (yes, they do exist, almost
like a secret society) are increasingly alarmed there is no alternative model
to the chaotic, entropic hardcore neoliberalism/casino capitalism racket
promoted by the Masters of the Universe.
Even if Eurasian
integration prevails in the long run, and Wall Street becomes a sort of local
stock exchange, the Chinese and the emerging multipolar world still seem to be
locked into the existing neoliberal model.
And yet, as much
as Lao Tzu, already an octogenarian, gave the young Confucius an intellectual
slap on the face, the “West” could do with a wake-up call. Divide et impera?
It’s not working. And it’s bound to fail miserably.
As it stands,
what we do know is that 2015 will be a hair-raising year in myriad aspects.
Because from Europe to Asia, from the ruins of the Roman empire to the
re-emerging Middle Kingdom, we all still remain under the sign of a fearful,
dangerous, rampantly irrational Empire of Chaos.
Notes:
1. See here.
2. What Putin is
not telling us, Russia Today, December 18, 2014.
3. Eurasian
Integration vs. the Empire of Chaos, TomDispatch, December 16, 2014.
4. China set to
make tracks for Europe, China Daily, December 18, 2014. China’s Li cements new
export corridor into Europe, Channel News Asia, December 16, 2014.
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