lunes, 5 de junio de 2017

Mueve Arabia Saudita

Sorprendió ayer la decisión de varios países árabes (Arabia Saudita, Egipto, los Emiratos Arabes Unidos y Bahrein) de romper relaciones con Qatar. Las especulaciones son de todo tipo, si bien cierta inclinación de Qatar a restablecer relaciones con Irán parece haber sido la causa de fondo. Las dos notas que siguen son de Zero Hedge:

Título: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, & Bahrain Cut Diplomatic Ties, Shut All Borders With Qatar

Texto: Just days after president Trump left the region, a geopolitical earthquake is taking place in the Middle East tonight as the rift between Qatar and other members of the (likely extinct) Gulf Cooperation Council explodes with Bahrain, UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt cutting all diplomatic ties with Qatar accusing it of "speading chaos," by funding terrorism and supporting Iran.

The dispute between Qatar and the Gulf's Arab countries started over a purported hack of Qatar's state-run news agency. It has spiraled since, and appears to be climaxing now... just days after President Trump left the region.

As Al Arabiya reports, Bahrain has announced it is cutting diplomatic ties with Qatar, according to a statement carried on Bahrain News Agency.

The statement on Monday morning said Bahrain decided to sever ties with its neighbor “on the insistence of the State of Qatar to continue destabilizing the security and stability of the Kingdom of Bahrain and to intervene in its affairs”.

The statement also said Qatar’s incitement of the media and supporting of terrorist activities and financing groups linked to Iran were reasons behind the decision.

“(Qatar has) spread chaos in Bahrain in flagrant violation of all agreements and covenants and principles of international law Without regard to values, law or morals or consideration of the principles of good neighborliness or commitment to the constants of Gulf relations and the denial of all previous commitments,” the statement read.

Qatari citizens have 14 days to leave Bahraini territories while Qatari diplomats were given 48 hours to leave the country after being expelled. Meanwhile, Bahrain has also banned all of its citizens from visiting or residing in Qatar after the severance of ties.

Additionally, Bahrain has has closed both air and sea borders with Qatar.

Saudi Arabia then confirmed the same - cutting ties and shutting down all sea, airspace, and land crossings with Qatar as well as dissolving Qatar's role in the Saudi-led coalition fighting against Yemen. Emirates, Etihad, Saudia, Gulf Air, and Egypt Air are no longer allowed to fly to Qatar and Saudi Arabia is providinhg facilities, services to Qatari pilgrims

Egypt then followed, confirming it was cutting diplomatic ties with

Then UAE confirmed it would cut ties, shut down all sky, water, and land crossings, and expel all Qataris within 48 hours.

The Maldives also just cut diplomatic ties with Qatar.

All of this happens within 24 hours of Iran calling out 'The West' for ignoring the real sponsors of terrorism around the world and UK's Labor party leader outright name-shaming Sauid Arabia's funding of terrorism.

Qatari officials did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

As a reminder, documents obtained by Middle East Eye show strategic alliance includes pledge by Ankara to protect Gulf state from external threats...

In December 2015, Turkey announced, to the surprise of many, that it planned to establish a military base in Qatar. Behind the scenes, the agreement was about forming a major strategic alliance.

After a 100-year hiatus, Turkey is militarily back in the Gulf and ramping up its presence overseas. In January, Ankara announced that it would also establish a military base in Somalia.

Specific details about the Qatar agreement, which Turkey described as an alliance in the face of "common enemies", remain scant, but Middle East Eye has acquired copies of the agreements, as well as further details, which include a secret pledge by Ankara to protect Qatar from external threats.

Did Qatar just get scapegoated in the 'war on terror'? One thing seems clear, support for a Syrian gas pipeline will be dwindling and with it the need for a Syrian war.

Notably, this raises further doubts about OPEC's stability. As Bloomberg notes, while Middle East ructions have historically added risk premia to oil prices, discord here could theoretically put downward pressure on prices as OPEC members struggle to maintain unity and compliance on production cuts.


Título: Qatar Crashes In Escalating Gulf Crisis; Oil Fails To Rebound As Global Stocks Dip

Texto: S&P futures point to a slightly lower open ahead of today's US non-mfg ISM and Service PMI data. European shares fall, while Asian shares are little changed. Several European countries, including Germany, are closed for Whit Monday leading to subdued trading. Crude futures have reversed overnight gains following the latest unexpected Gulf Crisis overnight, in which Gulf nations cut all diplomatic relations with Qatar amid striking allegations of funding terrorism, as reported overnight.

Looking at other asset classes, the AUD/USD continues grinding higher after a stronger than expected Chinese services PMI and inventories data reduces chances of negative GDP print, iron ore futures +2.0%; GBP/USD fills gap to Friday close, after opening lower in Asia following Saturday’s attacks Bloomberg observes. European equity markets lower from the open, oil-related stocks underperform given heightened political uncertainty. Banco Popular in Spain trades -11% after reports of liquidity pressure due to deposit withdrawals. Core fixed income markets edge lower, German long-end steepens, some focus on wage pressures within PMI data. MXN leads EMFX higher as ruling party is projected to win state election.

European stocks are down, with the Stoxx Europe 600 lower by 0.2% with miners the biggest losers following a downgrade, while zinc and tin led base metals lower. Europe was dragged lower by the Basic Resources index which drops as much as 1.3% to one-month low, making biggest decline of 19 industry groups, after HSBC cuts valuations for London-traded mining companies, downgrades Antofagasta, Kaz Minerals. Antofagasta is biggest decliner in sector, falls 2.8%, Centamin -2%, ArcelorMittal -1.6%, Anglo American -1%. HSBC cuts LSE equities valuations by 4%-9% on assumption of stronger GBP/USD conversion rate, used to convert USD-denominated cash flows to GBP, bank’s analysts write in note Monday.

The big event of the session was the sharp shift in Gulf balance of power with geopolitics surging to the top of the agenda as investors digest the move by Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt to suspended air and sea travel to and from Qatar. Saudi Arabia cited Qatar’s support of “terrorist groups aiming to destabilize the region.” Which is ironic considering that a leaked memo by Hillary Clinton last year exposed both Saudi Arabia and Qatar as the two big state sponsors of regional terrorism.

Following the report, Qatar stocks have plunged over 7%, the biggest one day drop since December 2014 to the lowest since January 2016...

... while Qatar bond yield have surged in the worst day in 7 months...

... and Qatar CDS spiked to 2 month highs.

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