Nos impresionó un poco este reporte de situación sobre Rusia, la Unión Europea y la NATO realizada por Scott Humor para el blog The Vineyard of the Saker. Uno salta del optimismo a la depresión, casi sin escalas. Hemos salteado varias referencias del texto original para facilitar la lectura. Acá va:
Título: Russia, EU and NATO SITREP January 11th, 2017 by Scott Humor
Subtítulo: In the first ten days of the new year we see the conflicts from 2016 getting worse.
Texto: Russian bloggers wish the Westerners a Happy New Year and… a happy Russophobia in 2017
An interesting essay by Sergey Vasiliev reflects the general mood. The following is a boiled-down version.
An offer “Die!” is the only consistent offer that “civilized” Europe has ever formulated for its Eastern neighbor.
It was formed in the period of the Ecumenical councils of the Church and was consecrated by all the bishops of the Vatican, and then by their followers including Luther, Marx, Engels, Goebbels and Chabad-Lubavitch rabbis .
It has never been ideological, though. It’s has always been about the Russia’s wealth and territories. Throughout the centuries the wars on Russia had different names:
-A crusade against the infidels
-The struggle against tyranny of the “Gendarme of all Europe”
-The fight against the threat of Pan-Slavism. F. Engels called for “the permanent destruction of the centre of their offensive force—Russia.“
-Fight against the Communist threat
-Combating threats to democracies
The bigger the economic troubles in Europe, the more persistent the Western nations have become with their offer.
Europeans have no idea what a “bad” economic situation is, because they still have cheap Russian gas and oil, which they refine and sell back to Russia. This double trade is a one trick pony that still pulls Europe’s economy. After Russia builds ten more refinery plants that are needed, there will be no raw gas and oil available to sell to Europe, only end products which are needed to rebuild the Middle East and for China’s consumption.
In anticipation of this, the European Commission even came up with a new “security of gas supply regulation,” that was published on 16 February 2016. It’s main thesis, “we are all in this together,” and for the first time ever the EU introduces a “solidarity principle according to which, as a last resort, neighbouring Member States will help ensure gas supplies to households and essential social services, such as healthcare and security services, in the case of a severe crisis.”
It means that Norway and Denmark will have to share their natural gas with France and Germany. Bulgaria, Poland, Greece and Ukraine are out of luck.
In short period of time, after Russia completely turns away from Europe and will seize selling raw mineral resources to Europe, the EU economy will go into coma. They still will be able to buy LNG, if they build terminals, but that would price their manufacturing industries out of the market. With winters like the current one, Europeans might become more concerned with staying warm and alive, which is what we all wish for them.
Happy Russophobia, Europe!
The economic sanctions and military threats to Russia have been instruments in pushing the Eurasian integration process ahead. The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) had approved a proposal to start talks on the creation of a free trade zone with Iran, Egypt, India and Singapore.
Russia has started intense negotiations to establish the Free Trade Zones with Iran, Egypt, India and Singapore, which will further the common for all these country effort to reduce the economic and trade dependency on the West. (In Russian) (In English)
The members of the Eurasian Union will include other outsider countries interested in joining and who would like to get away from the Western colonial way of selling their products.
Until now a country would have to take very expensive credits and agree to exclusive use of a particular product. It’s this colonial way of trade that the Eurasian countries want to escape. India, Egypt, Iran and Singapore are included into 15 most developed countries in the world by many technological standards. The establishing this Free Trade Zone will allow for at least 15% increase in their production capabilities and work force. Since the Fall of 2016, a similar FTZ has been operational between the Eurasian Union and Vietnam.
-Iran has emerged as the main bidder for a stake in the Caspian port of Makhachkala, aiming to expand shipping and trade links with Russia and other countries
-FTA to Increase Russia, India Trade to $30 Billion: Trade Rep
-First China-U.K. Freight Train to Europe via Russia
The first train departed Yiwu in the Eastern Zhejiang province on January 1 and will cover more than 12,000 kilometers (7,500 miles) in about 18 days before reaching London, China Railway Corp. said in a statement Monday. The service, carrying garments, bags and suitcases among other items, will pass through Kazakhstan, Russia, Belarus, Poland, Germany, Belgium and France.
While Russia trades, European nationals are getting ready for a war
Just recently, Robert W. Merry, a contributor for National Interest magazine, came up with a curious “red line” for war. He offers to consider the “traditionally orthodox Christian nations” as parts of the Russia’s national interest, but to go to war for the “Western Christendom” lands, like the Baltic republics.
-Stop Poking the bear (http://nationalinterest.org/feature/stop-poking-the-bear-18838)
-What Trump Gets Right About Putin (http://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-trump-gets-right-about-putin-14697)
“… the president should assure Russia that the West has no designs on Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova or Belarus — or, for that matter, any other nations identified with the Orthodox Christian tradition. No NATO designs. But the West would go to war to prevent any Russian meddling in European lands traditionally identified with Western Christendom, most notably the Baltic states. They remain a crucial part of the Western sphere of influence.”
Merry is a news editor for American Conservative, and the former editor of The National Interest and former CEO and executive editor of the Congressional Quarterly. He has been a Washington correspondent for The Wall Street Journal and has written for The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and National Review, among many other periodical.
The territories of the modern Baltic states were purchased by Peter I from Sweden for several million gold and silver rubles over three centuries ago. They were an addition to the territories that were already owned by Russia. In current prices, the amount that Peter paid for the Baltic territories is estimated to be about $300 trillion.
I am sorry that I have to give you Wikipedia links, everything else is in Russian.
In 1721 the Treaty of Nystad ended what became known as the Great Northern War. Russia acquired Ingria, Estonia, Livonia, and a substantial portion of Karelia. In turn, Russia paid two million Riksdaler and surrendered most of Finland. The Tsar retained some Finnish lands close to Saint Petersburg, which he had made his capital in 1712.
The Treaty of Nystad was the result of Russia’s victory in the Northern War.
“It was the acquisition of Estonia in the year of 1561, which marked the first step to Sweden’s emergence as a European great power, and it was when the Baltic provinces were lost to Russia in 1710 (1721), during the Northern War, that Sweden was transformed into a second-class power again.”
The acquisition of Estonia and Livonia introduced a new class of Baltic German nobles to Russian courts. During the following centuries, Baltic Germans were to occupy important positions in the Russian Empire. In 1795, Early Modern Russia completed her Baltic expansion with the acquisition of Courland by a capitulation similar to the Estonian and Livonian ones, following the Third Partition of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. The Baltic provinces retained their special status within the Russian Empire.
These territories were developed with Russia’s and the Soviet Union’s investments for over three hundred years, and the EU received these territories for free. If the EU wants to keep these lands, it should pay this money back to Russia. Otherwise, the Baltic territories have to be returned back to Russia.
Traditionally for the Russian Empire, Russian government didn’t impose Orthodox Christianity and always allowed local ethnicities to practice their own religions. So, the Baltics being the traditional Russian territories had some sort of Protestantism going on there.
Today, they are illegally occupied by NATO and the Russian population which is Orthodox Christian, is being pushed out.
According to Merry, a war with Russia will result in some minor problems for the US.
“It could mean war. That would be a disaster for America and the West. For America, it would pull attention and resources away from much more serious strategic threats, most notably the rise of ISIS in the Middle East and the rise of China in Asia. For Europe, it likely would threaten the eastern nations liberated in 1989 after some forty-five years of Soviet domination.”
It’s not professional for a journalist to never consult with the sources. If Robert W. Merry would read the New Defense Doctrine, he would learn that any war with Europe and the US would include the use of nuclear weapons against them.
For America, the war with Russia for any reason wouldn’t just “pull attention and resources” away from the China. It would mean war with China. China is the strategic ally of Russia, with a mutual defense agreement between two countries:
In case of a war with the West, China will take arms and supply manufacturing, food production, and other such duties. Don’t expect Russian soldiers in Europe. We need them home. Instead, imagine a million strong Chinese army entering Berlin and liberating Paris? Why do you think a high speed railroads is being built between China and the EU via Russia? Do you think it’s for shipping lithium batteries and plastic European Union flags?
Shifting power dynamics in SE Asia as Chinese sub visits Malaysia for 1st time and Russian warships dock in Manila. Update: China’s defense ministry says its sub stopped in Malaysia for rest and resupply on way back from Gulf of Aden anti-piracy patrols
Instead of realizing that it has been outnumbered, NATO keeps dreaming of winning in the past WWII.
-NATO increases its occupation of the eastern European countries. (http://svpressa.ru/politic/article/163811/)
-Who is inside American tanks?( https://cont.ws/@osa777/483666)
-“Zeichen der Stärke” – Erstes Video von der US-Panzerverladung in Bremerhaven (https://youtu.be/Bu7AS6G45z8)
On Jan 7, 2017 – the U.S. tanks were unloaded in Bremerhaven, northern Germany, Friday Jan. 6, 2017. Ships loaded with U.S. tanks, self-propelled howitzers and hundreds of other fighting vehicles have arrived in the northern German port en route to Eastern Europe to bolster NATO’s deterrence to possible Russian aggression.
“According to US Army Europe, 4,000 troops and 2,000 tanks will arrive in three US transport ships to Germany next weekend. From Bremerhaven, US troops and huge amount of military material, will be transported to Poland and other countries in Central and Eastern Europe.”
The arrival of equipment from 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team of Fort Carson, Colorado, marks the beginning of the continuous presence of an ABCT in Europe. Tanks, Trucks and Container will enter the Port of Bremerhaven on board the ships “Resolve”, “Endurance” and “Freedom” in January 2017.
On January 6, 87 Abrams M1A1 tanks, 20 Paladin artillery vehicles and 136 Bradley fighting vehicles arrived in the German port of Bremerhaven. The United States also plans to deploy 50 Black Hawk, 10 CH-47 Chinook and 24 Apache helicopters, as well as 2,200 personnel. The newly-arrived military equipment will be distributed across Bulgaria, Estonia, Germany, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Romania for training, exercises and maintenance.
Why the Russian government keeps its silence about the NATO’s Military Buildup?
Dr. Martin McCauley, Senior Lecturer at the University of London, told Radio Sputnik (https://sputniknews.com/politics/201701091049399795-putin-nato-military-buildup/), commenting on the Pentagon’s latest deployment to the region, said that
“the Kremlin will have to respond to NATO’s muscle flexing in Eastern Europe and the Baltics because Moscow sees it as a threat.”
You have probably noticed also that all the usual witty personalities in the Defense Ministry, Foreign Ministry and even Duma, keep unusually silent. One might assume that they are still celebrating the New Year, but I don’t think anyone missed the Kabalistic significance of the Washington bringing their war hardware to Germany on the Russian orthodox Christmas day.
This is what happens when the Western “experts” don’t even read the speeches of the Russian President Putin.
During his joint press conference with Prime Minister of Greece Alexis Tsipras, Putin said that this is Russia’s last warning to NATO. He said that there will be no further warnings.
-Russian President Vladimir Putin Joint press conference of with Prime Minister of Greece Alexis Tsipras (http://thesaker.is/russian-president-vladimir-putin-joint-press-conference-of-with-prime-minister-of-greece-alexis-tsipras/)
-Putin gives grave warning to Romania and Poland against installing NATO’s ABM missiles, “no one is listening” by Eric Zuesse (https://www.sott.net/article/319223-Putin-gives-grave-warning-to-Romania-and-Poland-against-installing-NATOs-ABM-missiles-no-one-is-listening)
-Putin LOSES IT, Warns Journalists of War: ‘I Don’t Know How to Get Through to You People’ (Video) ‘How do you not understand that the world is being pulled in an irreversible direction?’ (http://russia-insider.com/en/politics/putin-loses-it-journalists-i-dont-know-how-get-through-you-people/ri15456)
More news in brief
-17 European officials have written to Trump telling him that Putin “does not seek American greatness”, while Europe does.
-Mehmood Mandviwalla: “One reason why there hasn’t been a coup in Pakistan [in recent years]: A fiercely independent judiciary.”
-China The People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) patrols the East China Sea on 1/9/17 with six H6 bombers, an ELINT & EW aircraft. Japan SDF sent up fighters in response.
-Taiwan scrambled jets and navy ships on Wednesday as a group of Chinese warships led by China’s sole aircraft carrier sailed north through the Taiwan Strait, the latest sign of heightened tensions between Beijing and the self-ruled Taiwan.
-January 9, 2017 – It’s time to resuscitate the Asia-Pacific Quad, by Dhruva Jaishankar of the Brookings India Institute
-This Australia-India-Japan-US initiative has hit the wall since the beginning of the century.Futile multiple attempts to break India away from Eurasia and to turn it against its neighbors.
-Lockheed Martin’s Sikorsky grounds all S-92 helicopters following accident
-US charges former UN chief Ban’s relatives in bribery case
-FBI chief given dossier by John McCain alleging secret Trump-Russia contacts. Russian intelligence alleged to have compromising material on Trump. Unverified reports were drawn up by western ex-counter-intelligence official
One report, dated June 2016, claims that the Kremlin has been cultivating, supporting and assisting Trump for at least five years, with the aim of encouraging “splits and divisions in western alliance”.
The emergence of the documents is potentially explosive, 10 days before Trump’s inauguration and on the eve of his first planned press conference since July last year.
Page, a vociferous supporter of the Kremlin line, was in Moscow in July to make a speech decrying western policy towards Russia. At the time he declined to say whether he had been in contact with Russian officials, but in September he rejected the reports as “garbage”.
And there is this: “The Guardian has learned that the FBI applied for a warrant from the foreign intelligence surveillance (Fisa) court over the summer in order to monitor four members of the Trump team suspected of irregular contacts with Russian officials. The Fisa court turned down the application asking FBI counter-intelligence investigators to narrow its focus. According to one report, the FBI was finally granted a warrant in October, but that has not been confirmed, and it is not clear whether any warrant led to a full investigation. “
FBI felt they had cause to seek a warrant, even under relatively low bar of the FISA.
AND this: Here’s How To Understand The Bombshell New Report On Trump And Russia. The claims in newly released opposition research documents aren’t verified. (http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-russia-cnn-kompromat_us_58757682e4b03c8a02d3dbd7?zb8h2bw66gxzp8pvi)
How to read news this year: Wait at least for a day before reacting.
Thank you for your time,
P.S. A featured image: An anticipation of a Civil War in the US [sobre la foto de arriba]