La nota que sigue puede resultar instructiva a aquellos que todavía creen que la compra y venta de energéticos (en particular, petróleo y gas, la sangre de la economía contemporánea) sigue las "leyes de la oferta y la demanda". Leemos en el sitio web Strategic Culture Foundation la siguiente nota de Piotr Iskenderov:
Título: Who Wants
to Keep Gas Flowing Through Ukraine and Why?
Texto: This past
year of 2016 set a new record for the export history of Gazprom, Russia’s
biggest gas company. Its chairman, Alexey Miller, has claimed that by the end
of the year Gazprom will have shipped a total of 180 billion cubic meters to
non-CIS countries.
Gazprom had only
planned to export between 166 and 170 billion cubic meters of gas in 2016 (in
2015, 158.56 billion cubic meters of gas were delivered to non-CIS countries).
But even this new
high is not the limit. Gazprom’s latest calculations envision a further uptick
in shipments in 2017, and those will primarily be to the European Union. The
key factors here are, first and foremost, the weather conditions (this winter
promises to be a more severe one in Europe than last year), and second - the
jump in demand for gas in Europe that has been seen in recent months in the
face of lower domestic production in EU countries.
The biggest
consumers of Russian gas are still Germany (47.4 billion cubic meters in 2015),
Turkey (27 billion), Italy (24.4 billion), Great Britain (22.5 billion), and
France (10.5 billion). And Russian gas shipments play a very important role in
ensuring the energy security of Southeastern Europe. In 2015 Bulgaria purchased
3.1 billion cubic meters of gas from the companies that make up the Gazprom
Group, while Greece bought 2 billion cubic meters, Serbia - 1.9 billion cubic
meters, and Croatia - 0.6 billion cubic meters.
The market price
for Russian gas has taken some interesting twists and turns. It is worth noting
that that figure has risen right along with the increase in supply. This proves
once again that the close interdependence of European consumers and Russian
energy suppliers is «overriding» the market formula: simultaneous growth in
both supply and price is an atypical phenomenon in a market environment,
however, it proves once again that any moves aimed at «replacing» Russian gas
or «displacing» Russia from the EU gas market might be disruptive for Europe’s
energy sector.
The attempts by
some countries to block Russian gas supplies look particularly irrational in
this context. This primarily applies to Poland, which rushed to the European
Court to appeal the European Commission’s decision to allow Gazprom greater
access to the OPAL pipeline that links Nord Stream with the gas-transit system
of Central and Western Europe.
The Polish media
cites the official spokesperson for the Polish Ministry of Finance, Joanna
Wajda, in its reports that Warsaw has already asked the European Union to
suspend the implementation of the European Commission (EC) decision. The EC’s
official reaction to this proposal is still unknown, but it will be interesting
to see.
The OPAL gas
pipeline has a capacity of 36 billion cubic meters of gas per year, but
Germany’s network regulator has only been permitting Gazprom to use 50% of
that, meaning that it can pump no more than 18 billion cubic meters of gas
annually. The European Commission ruled in October (which should take effect on
Jan. 1, 2017) that Gazprom may bid for the right to pump another 7.7-10.2
billion cubic meters of gas through that pipeline, thus using an additional
21-28% of OPAL’s capacity.
In light of these
developments, it is hard to see the position being taken by Poland - and by
those in solidarity with Warsaw over this matter (or who are clearly urging
that country to embark on such initiatives) - as anything but a deliberate
attempt to jeopardize Europe’s energy security in order to keep gas flowing
through Ukraine, so as not to threaten the survival of the regime in Kiev that
is close to bankruptcy and desperately in need of that revenue in order to
survive. This political objective entirely trumps any rational economic considerations.
Poland has begun
criticizing not only Russia and the European Commission but also Germany over
the question of gas transit through Ukraine. The Polish online news site Biznes
Alert has accused the German Federal Network Agency (Bundesnetzagentur) that
manages the operation of gas pipelines of colluding with Gazprom and the German
companies that «trade Russian gas that passes through OPAL».
Polish
politicians and the media are not displaying much ingenuity in their attempts
to claim that the sun is really the moon. However, if Gazprom’s export capacity
and the real picture in Europe’s energy markets are being weighed on one side
of the scale, while on the other side is the political flap over the question
of gas shipments through Ukraine, European countries are unlikely to act
against their own interests in order to back plans being made by Warsaw and its
overseas handlers. After all, this could be a really harsh winter.
que los polacos capangas se suiciden, si quieren!
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