Justito ahora que
Mauricio nos lleva de vuelta al mundo, resulta que el mundo se porta re mal con
Mauricio y su equipo, el mejor de los últimos 50 años. Y nada menos que con el
valor del dólar! Via Zero Hedge llegamos a esta nota de Stratfor:
Título: Where a
Strong Dollar Will Do the Most Damage
Texto:
Forecasting the future of currencies is a notoriously risky business. Forces
may push them in a particular direction, as is currently the case with the
dollar, but in the ever-changing environment of the foreign exchange market,
events anywhere in the world, at any point in time, can alter their course.
Nevertheless, the dollar is steadily strengthening, and it could create
headaches in other parts of the world.
One of the
biggest victims will be China. The Chinese yuan has been devaluing against the
dollar for the past 18 months, a process that in itself leads to capital flight
as investors try to flee the depreciating currency. This carries the risk of
becoming a disorderly process, and China has spent a considerable share of its
foreign exchange reserves trying to manage it. A strengthening dollar will put
more pressure on China to burn through its remaining reserves even faster,
eating away at the safety net it has built up over the past two decades.
Still, the
countries most at risk from a strong dollar are those with hefty
dollar-denominated debts. Ample foreign exchange reserves can help offset this
problem, since they can be used to prop up national currencies or pay off
corporate debts in a pinch. On the downside, a current account deficit (which
arises when a country spends more abroad in its day-to-day activities than it
receives) would exacerbate the issue, since it implies that money is naturally
flowing out of the country.
The 2013 "taper
tantrum" revealed five countries to be particularly at risk because of
their large current account deficits and dollar-denominated debts: India, South
Africa, Indonesia, Turkey and Brazil. But over the past three years, most of
these countries have improved their financial standing and are less vulnerable
than they were in 2013. The so-called Fragile Five could still be somewhat
exposed, but now they are part of a much bigger pack.
Many emerging
markets are saddled with significant dollar-denominated debts, too, and do not
have abundant foreign exchange reserves to fall back on. Some of these
countries' finances have improved since the taper tantrum, but as the dollar's
value rises, they will find it harder to repay or refinance their debts, especially
as the cost of swapping dollars on the open market rises. By all appearances,
the strengthening dollar is an omen of the difficult year ahead for the world's
emerging markets.
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