Sopapo de oso

La casi ilimitada estupidez de los "estrategas" europeos acaba de entrar en la fase peligrosa; Rusia decidió adoptar el lema de la funcionaria estadounidense Victoria Nuland: "A la mierda con la UE", y comienza a aplicar sanciones. A diferencia de los salames de la Unión Europea, los rusos hablan en serio. Para decirlo en palabras de un teleteatro venezolano, cosecharás tu siembra, papafrita. Leemos en el blog Vineyard of the Saker (http://vineyardsaker.blogspot.com.ar/):

Título: Breaking news: Russia will completely stop the delivery of gaz through the Ukraine

Texto: First, I was a little skeptical. Then more and more sources confirmed what seems to be a fact: Russia will completely stop the delivery of gaz through the Ukraine and all Russian gaz will now flow through Turkey (see Bloomberg and LifeNews). Not only that, but the Russians have told the Europeans that if they want Russian gaz, they will have to build their own pipeline to Turkey and pay for it all.

The Europeans appear to be shell-shocked. Maros Sefcovic, the European Commission’s vice president for energy union, declared that this decision made "no economic sense".  As if the nonstop economic and political warfare waged by the EU against Russia did make any sense!

I can image the faces of the Eurobureaucrats when Alexei Miller, the head of Gazprom, told them that "now it is up to them to put in place the necessary infrastructure starting from the Turkish-Greek border” while the Russian Energy Minister Novak added that "the decision has been made, we are diversifying and eliminating the risks of unreliable countries that caused problems in past years, including for European consumers.”

In other words, the EU just lost it all and so did the Ukraine.  Keep in mind that the EU has no other options then to purchase the Russian gas from Turkey while Russia can simply do without gaz exports to Europe because China has already signed a contract covering the exact same amount of gaz and possibly much more.

Let's see now how the infinitely corrupt, arrogant, criminally irresponsible European elites will cope with an agriculture choking in useless surplus stocks, a society waging ideological war on 1.6 billion Muslims, and now with no energy.

The always irreplaceable Poles have come up with a brilliant strategy it appears: they will "not really" invite Putin to the commemoration of the liberation of Auschwitz even though Auschwitz was liberated by the Soviet military.  I am sure that Putin will be both impressed and heartbroken.

Nowadays every time I hear any news out of Europe, I always think that Victoria Nuland's famous "f**k the EU" and how Boris Johnson, the Mayor of London, called his colleagues the "great supine protoplasmic invertebrate jellies". I share exactly the same sentiments: let them "Charlies" now freeze in their own pathetic mediocrity.

Más recientemente, el Peregrino comenta:

Título: Russia Leaves the European Commissioner for Energy Union out in the Cold

by Aleksei Kettunen

Texto: GAZPROM–EU: 6–0

Yesterday on Wednesday the EU negotiated with Gazprom in Moscow. The EU negotiators had three aims:

-Pressure Russia into extending the special winter pricing on gas supplies to Ukrainian due to end in March,

-Force Russia to further unilateral concessions by forcing all European energy purchases to happen through a new “European Energy Union”,

-Pressure Russia to resurrect the canceled South Stream gas pipeline project and build it in accordance with the restrictive rules of the Third Energy Package.

The Russian response was a cold shower.

Firstly, Gazprom said there is no need for a special summer agreement on Ukrainian gas purchases, as a valid contract already exists.

In practice, this means that all the concessions Kiev has received for the winter season are temporary and there is no space for negotiations. If the EU wants to ensure their gas transits through Ukraine then it must put pressure on Kiev to comply with existing agreements. If Kiev needs gas it cannot afford to pay – thus endangering transit deliveries to EU countries – it is not Russia's problem. The same applies to Kiev's gas debts; the EU will have to pay both the Ukrainian gas debts and any future gas purchases.

Secondly, Gazprom announced that the South Stream gas pipeline project is dead and will not be realized. The project collapsed under US and EU pressure. The greatest obstacle turned out to be EU's Third Energy Package. It heavily restricts how Gazprom could use their own pipeline; Gazprom could only use 50% of South Stream's capacity and would be forced to offer the remaining 50% of the transportation capacity to third parties. Although all of the agreements between Gasprom and the various transit and consumer countries were made before the Third Energy Package entered into force, the European Commission now demands that it is applied retroactively.

Russia's solution is as follows: Gazprom will build the pipeline to Turkey and extend it the Turkish-Greek border. The pipeline will end in a gas distribution hub near the EU border. If the EU wants to buy gas, it will have to build a pipeline to Turkey at its own expense. It will also need to expand the gas transport capacity between its South European member countries – and do so under the constraints imposed by its own Third Energy Package.

The final punch to EU arrogance was Gazprom's declaration that after the completion of the gas hub and the Turkish pipeline Gazprom will end all gas transit through Ukraine. Russian gas will only be available through Turkey! The Ukrainian pipeline network will be used exclusively supply gas to Ukraine. Gazprom based its decision on Ukraine's instability and the high transit risks.

Maroš Šef?ovi?, the week-old European Commissioner for Energy Union must have had the worst day of his life. EU arrogance hit a brick wall. A major scandal is brewing about how Germany ruthlessly secured its own gas supply through the Nord Stream Pipeline and then used all means possible to sabotage the South Stream pipeline. There is no better cause inflame the North-South conflict in the EU. The prospective users of the South Stream pipeline are sure to feel “eternal gratitude” to the United States for killing the project.

The perpetual EU candidate Turkey will feel Schadenfreude watching the EU's plight while calculating the future revenues from gas transits. Turkey also happens to be Gazprom's second-largest customer after Germany. The biggest loser will be Ukraine, the world's preeminent gas siphoner and blackmailer.

Despite all the arrogant talk the EU has no real alternative to Russian natural gas. Brussels has to swallow it pride and come to its senses.

Now we are anxiously waiting for the Western mainstream media's spin on the story.

En fin, en Europa todavía no terminan de digerirlo. Acá va la noticia según EurActiv.com (http://www.euractiv.com/sections/energy/russia-says-it-will-shift-gas-transit-ukraine-turkey-311291):

Título: Russia says it will shift gas transit from Ukraine to Turkey

Texto: European Commission Vice President Maroš Šefovi? was told in Moscow Wednesday (14 January) that Russia would shift all its gas transit from Ukraine to Turkey, and that EU customers should buy this gas at the border with Greece.

According to press reports, Šef?ovi?, who visits Russia for the first time since he was appointed Commission Vice-President for the Energy Union, said he was “very surprised” by the Russian move.

Russia recently abandoned plans to build the South Stream gas pipeline via the Black Sea to Bulgaria, and blamed Sofia for having obstructed the project.

EU Energy Commissioner Maroš Šef?ovi? said he was 'very surprised' after Russia announced it would shift all its gas transit from Ukraine to Turkey, and that EU customers should buy this gas at the border with Greece. “We don’t work like this,” Šef?ovi? said. “I believe we can find a better...

 […]

Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov was in Brussels last Monday, and asked Šef?ovi? to advocate resuming the project, which he said his country supports.

About 40% of Russia’s gas exports transit through Ukraine, which receives billions in transit fees. Now Russia says it will build an offshore pipeline to Turkey and send all this gas to the Turkish border with Greece.

“We don’t work like this,” Šef?ovi? said, as quoted from Bloomberg. He reportedly added, “I believe we can find a better solution.”

“South Stream is dead. For Europe there will be no other gas transit options to risky Ukraine other than the new ‘Turkish Stream’ pipeline,” Gazprom CEO Aleksey Miller said, as reported by RIA Novosti.

Reportedly, Moscow believes that its gas supplies through Ukraine remain at risk, and is firmly decided to re-route them.

Russia will instead build an alternative pipeline using funds and materials intended for the original South Stream project, the Russia press writes. Reportedly, some of the pipes are stored in Bulgarian ports.

However, some analysts doubt that Russia would find the money to buy an offshore pipeline in its current difficult circumstance, aggravated by the fall of the oil price and the Western sanctions.

***

Por su parte, así lo contaba hoy Zero Hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-14/russia-cuts-ukraine-gas-supply-6-european-countries):

Título: Russia Cuts Off Ukraine Gas Supply To 6 European Countries

Texto: Vladimir Putin ordered the Russian state energy giant Gazprom to cut supplies to and through Ukraine amid accusations, according to The Daily Mail, that its neighbor has been siphoning off and stealing Russian gas. Due to these "transit risks for European consumers in the territory of Ukraine," Gazprom cut gas exports to Europe by 60%, plunging the continent into an energy crisis "within hours." Perhaps explaining the explosion higher in NatGas prices (and oil) today, gas companies in Ukraine confirmed that Russia had cut off supply; and six countries reported a complete shut-off of Russian gas. The EU raged that the sudden cut-off to some of its member countries was "completely unacceptable," but Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller later added that Russia plans to shift all its natural gas flows crossing Ukraine to a route via Turkey; and Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak stated unequivocally, "the decision has been made."

As Bloomberg reports,

Russia plans to shift all its natural gas flows crossing Ukraine to a route via Turkey, a surprise move that the European Union’s energy chief said would hurt its reputation as a supplier.

The decision makes no economic sense, Maros Sefcovic, the European Commission’s vice president for energy union, told reporters today after talks with Russian government officials and the head of gas exporter, OAO Gazprom, in Moscow.

Gazprom, the world’s biggest natural gas supplier, plans to send 63 billion cubic meters through a proposed link under the Black Sea to Turkey, fully replacing shipments via Ukraine, Chief Executive Officer Alexey Miller said during the discussions. About 40 percent of Russia’s gas exports to Europe and Turkey travel through Ukraine’s Soviet-era network.

...

Sefcovic said he was “very surprised” by Miller’s comment, adding that relying on a Turkish route, without Ukraine, won’t fit with the EU’s gas system.

Gazprom plans to deliver the fuel to Turkey’s border with Greece and “it’s up to the EU to decide what to do” with it further, according to Sefcovic.

Which, as The Daily Mail reports, has led to a major (and imminent) problem for Europe...

Russia cut gas exports to Europe by 60 per cent today, plunging the continent into an energy crisis 'within hours' as a dispute with Ukraine escalated.

This morning, gas companies in Ukraine said that Russia had completely cut off their supply.

Six countries reported a complete shut-off of Russian gas shipped via Ukraine today, in a sharp escalation of a struggle over energy that threatens Europe as winter sets in.

Bulgaria, Greece, Macedonia, Romania, Croatia and Turkey all reported a halt in gas shipments from Russia through Ukraine.

As Bloomberg goes on to note, Gazprom has reduced deliveries via Ukraine after price and debt disputes with the neighboring country that twice in the past decade disrupted supplies to the EU during freezing weather.

“Transit risks for European consumers on the territory of Ukraine remain,” Miller said in an e-mailed statement. “There are no other options” except for the planned Turkish Stream link, he said.

“We have informed our European partners, and now it is up to them to put in place the necessary infrastructure starting from the Turkish-Greek border,” Miller said.

Russia won’t hurt its image with a shift to Turkey because it has always been a reliable gas supplier and never violated its obligations, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak told reporters today in Moscow after meeting Sefcovic.

“The decision has been made,” Novak said. “We are diversifying and eliminating the risks of unreliable countries that caused problems in past years, including for European consumers.”

That helps to explain today's epic meltup in NatGas futures...

"They [the Russians] have reduced deliveries to 92million cubic metres per 24 hours compared to the promised 221million cubic metres without explanation," said Valentin Zemlyansky of the Ukrainian gas company Naftogaz.

"We do not understand how we will deliver gas to Europe. This means that in a few hours problems with supplies to Europe will begin."

La imagen de abajo ilustra las temperaturas de invierno en Europa. Notará el lector que en el este europeo la mano viene más bien fresca.

Paralelamente… (leemos en RT):

Título: Gazprom announces final nail in the South Stream coffin

Texto: Europe will have to get gas via Turkey or Ukraine, there will be no direct transcontinental pipeline to Europe, Gazprom has confirmed. It is disappointing news for Bulgaria, which was hoping to get gas directly from Russia, and not via Ukraine.

Gazprom CEO Aleksey Miller made it clear that Turkey, and not Bulgaria, will become the main gas valve between Russia and Europe.

“South Stream is dead. For Europe there will be no other gas transit options to risky Ukraine other than the new ‘Turkish Stream’ pipeline,” Miller said Wednesday, as reported by RIA Novosti.

"Now, the ‘Turkish Stream’ on the agenda," he emphasized.

EU Energy Commissioner Maros Sefcovic was in Moscow Wednesday to discuss EU energy security and the fate of South Stream with Miller and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Arkady Dvorkovich.

Gazprom's decision to create ‘Turkish Stream’ will damage to the company’s image, according to the Energy Commissioner Maros Sefcovic.

Ahead of the meeting, Bulgaria expressed optimism that it would reach a solution with Moscow on South Stream.

In the wake of the South Stream closure, the European Commission is supporting Bulgaria’s proposal to build a gas storage hub. At present Bulgaria only has a big enough gas hub to hold 2 months’ consumption.

“I really hope we’ll be able to find the right solution, especially after the visit to Moscow; the right solution as far as the gas hub is concerned or the continuation of the work on South Stream,” Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borisov said in Brussels on Tuesday, Bloomberg News reports.

Russia stopped deliveries to Europe in 2006 and 2009 over disputes with Ukraine.

Gazprom chairman of the board Alexei Miller, center, and heads of shareholding companies are in Anapa at the launching ceremony of South Stream gas pipeline construction, 7 December 2012. (RIA Novosti / Sergey Guneev) Gazprom chairman of the board Alexei Miller, center, and heads of shareholding companies are in Anapa at the launching ceremony of South Stream gas pipeline construction, 7 December 2012. (RIA Novosti / Sergey Guneev)

Bulgaria lost more than 6,000 new jobs and over $3 billion of investment with the cancellation of the project. The country also receives 90 percent of its gas imports from Russia, the majority of which crosses through Ukraine, which is seen as an energy risk.

The parties agreed to hold a future trilateral meeting between Russia, EU, and Ukraine in Sofia.

Aleksey Miller said that transit risks in Ukraine are not over, even though Kiev has managed to pay its debt and resume gas flows, after a 6-month hiatus. At present, Ukraine hasn’t stored up enough in its underground storage reserves, according to the Gazprom head.

Russia pulled the plug on the project to Europe in December after standoffs with Brussels over the placement of the pipeline in Bulgaria, the first land section of the pipeline. It would have pumped 63 billion cubic meters of gas to Europe annually.

Russia will instead build an alternative pipeline using funds and materials intended for the original South Stream project. Europe will have to buy gas at the Turkish border. It will across the Black Sea to Turkey and be able to pump 63 billion cubic meters a year.