Holywood nos ha
hecho creer que una guerra son unos cuantos aviones tirando bombas a lo loco,
armando una batahola fenomenal y montañas de polvo lanzado a la atmósfera.
Aquí y allá, edificios destruidos, cráteres dominando el paisaje y unos cuantos
muertos. No, chicos, la guerra es lo que queda después de los fuegos
artificiales. Odios que duran generaciones, alianzas que se arman o se
quiebran, olas de refugiados que desestabilizan demográficamente a las naciones vecinas, economías regionales dislocadas y miles, a veces millones, de muertos
en la población civil. Para no hablar de los costos materiales de la empresa
(los imperios suelen fundirse por cosas así).
Leemos una
instructiva nota de Alex Gorka en el sitio web Strategic Culture Foundation:
Título: US, Iran
on Brink of Armed Conflict: War Scenario and Consequences
Texto: A conflict
may start accidentally even if nobody wants it as the tensions are getting
higher. President Donald Trump has pledged to get tough with Iran since taking
office, warning Tehran that it was playing with fire and the US had all options
on the table. The threat is very much real, especially after Iran tested a
ballistic missile on January 29 – an alleged violation of the UN Security
Council’s resolution. The exchange of hostile statements between Washington and
Tehran is taking place against the background of US warning and military
exercises held by Iran in the Gulf.
National security
adviser, Michael Flynn, said the US is «officially putting Iran on notice»,
condemning the test as a «provocative» breach of a UN Security Council
resolution. On February 3, the Trump administration enacted new sanctions on
Tehran to provoke Iran into launching large-scale drills.
Tehran denies the
test was a violation. It says the missile was not designed to be nuclear tipped.
Resolution 2231 (2015) says Iran is «called upon» to refrain from missile tests
but is not forbidden to conduct them.
The US Defense
Department is considering stepped-up patrols and perhaps even airstrikes in
Yemen, aimed at preventing Iranian weapons from getting to the Houthis.
Israeli Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tweets that he will discuss the renewal of
sanctions against Iran with the US president when he visits the White House on
February 15. «It cannot be that Iranian aggression will remain without an
answer», Netanyahu said, adding he has ways of «undoing» the Iran nuclear
accord. Also onside is Theresa May, Britain’s Prime Minister. In a recent
speech she referred to the “malign influence” exerted by Iran. Like Trump, May
has offered unusually strong support for Israel in its standoff with Iran.
There is a lot of
loose talk and leaked tales about what a military action might ultimately
entail. Nobody knows what’s in store but some predictions are possible along
general lines.
The US will start
the operation with sea-based cruise missiles and air strikes delivered by at
least two aircraft carriers and strategic bombers to knock out key industrial
and military infrastructure. With this mission fulfilled, it will focus on
weapons systems and concentration of forces. The air campaign will be supported
by intensive drones activities and raids conducted by special operations forces
(SOF). As hostilities start, world oil prices will go up.
Squadrons of
aircraft, SOF teams, rings of interceptor missiles and whole Navy aircraft
carrier strike groups supported by drones, surveillance gear, tanker aircraft
and logistical support will be required to make it go.
Massive Ordnance
Penetrators (MOPs) used to strike nuclear sites are not standoff weapons. To
carry out this mission, the US will have to use B-2 bombers flying out of Diego
Garcia, carrying 30,000-pound GBU-57 MOPs capable of penetrating rock and
reinforced concrete to knock out enemy bunker, tunnel and other
deep-under-earth installations.
MOPs are not
stand-off weapons. US aircraft will have to penetrate Iranian airspace to
deliver them to vulnerable targets for Iranian air defenses, especially Russian
S-300 air defense systems recently delivered to Iran after international
sanctions were lifted. It is safe to assume Iran has installed surface-to-air
defense systems to protect their nuclear infrastructure. A lot will depend on
professional skills of personnel serving the systems.
The US would be
required to destroy Iran’s air defenses before striking the objects related to
the nuclear program. Besides striking Iran with cruise missiles, the US Navy
will focus on keeping the Hormuz Strait open. The Qatar-based X-band radar
station will spot Iranian missiles capable of attacking the warships in as
little as four minutes. They will be countered by Patriot and Terminal High
Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) interceptors in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the
United Arab Emirates augmented by US Navy cruisers and destroyers equipped with
Aegis missile defense systems.
The US will have
to destroy as many missile launchers as possible to protect its assets as well
as allied states in the Persian (Arabian) Gulf. Each target will require two
aircraft each for a total of 90 jets to hit around ten ballistic-missile bases
and roughly 20 missile production facilities, and over 20 launch sites. Oil
refineries, the power grid, military bases, roads and bridges will be auxiliary
targets. Israel would face certain retaliation from Hezbollah rockets launched
from Lebanon and Hamas missiles raining down from Gaza.
The US ground
forces needed allies to control Iraq and Afghanistan. Will the US occupy Iran,
a country with a population of over 60 million with mountainous and/or rugged
terrain? In theory, it can do it at great cost but does it have to? The
occupation of Iran would require a commitment of resources and personnel
greater than what the US has expended over the past 10 years in the Iraq and
Afghanistan wars combined.
Ground forces
will be needed to control the Hormuz Strait shores and exercising control over
the Iran-Iraq border. Boots on the ground are also needed to get hold of
Khuzestan Province – the country’s oil producing region populated mainly by
Shia Arabs. The province borders the northern part of the Gulf and the southern
edge of the Iraqi border. Sometimes this region is called Arabistan. The
province was the prime target of Iraqi forces invading Iran in 1980.
Khuzestan is the
economic heart of Iran, which is separated from the rest of the country by the
Zagros Mountains – the largest mountain range in Iran. It can be isolated from
the rest of Iran, with American forces having established control of heights
and maintaining supremacy in the air. It’s much easier to seize this province
than the whole Iran leaving it without oil revenues and fuel for military
hardware.
If combat actions
start, it would be logical to expect that Iranian Kurdistan will seize the
opportunity and try to gain independence. It’s hard to imagine Iraqi Kurds –
the US allies – not doing anything about it. Kurds could play the role of
ground forces seizing and controlling terrain in the areas adjacent to the
Iraqi border. In Afghanistan, Tajik formations also played the role of land
forces when US army invaded the country to fight the Taliban in 2001.
This development
will complicate the relations with Turkey. No matter what status Kurdistan will
have, Turkey could be compensated in a way by strengthening its position in
Iranian Azerbaijan.
If US diplomacy
is successful, the Persian Gulf monarchies and Egypt may join the battle.
An operation
against Iran won’t be a cakewalk. With growing anti-access and area denial
(A2/AD) capabilities, its forces confronted close to its shores would not be
easily subdued. Iran may not wait to be attacked. It can exploit the element of
surprise to launch a concentrated, combined-arms attack against US forces in
the Gulf. Drones, coastal radars, military ships and civilian vessels can be
used for effective targeting in an attempt to drive American ships toward
pre-laid minefields.
Surface fleet
will be augmented by shore-based anti-ship missiles. Iran will use short-range
ballistic missiles and proxy forces to deliver strikes against US military
infrastructure in the region. Iran can cherry pick its targets using long-range
conventionally armed missiles or drones against large military or urban
targets.
Decoys will be
vastly used to complicate American strikes against missile sites. Iran will try
to saturate US defenses.
Iranian forces
will most certainly try to block the Strait of Hormuz, the strategic waterway
through which some 40 percent of Gulf oil exports pass, and paralyze
international shipping. It would wreak havoc with the world’s oil supply.
Mine warfare
should feature prominently in this effort. Mines could be laid covertly by
submarines. It will do its best to hinder US Sea operations by making it
engaged in prolonged mine countermeasure operations under the threat coming
from Iranian missiles.
Even if Iran’s
regular forces are defeated, the US forces in control of territory will be
countered by guerilla warfare waged by Basij - a paramilitary voluntary militia
force trained to conduct subversive activities. Iran’s proxies, aided by Quds
Force operatives, could be employed to threaten US interests in other theaters.
Iranian servicemen will fight with prowess as many of them believe in another
world. The “battlefront” will include Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan, Bahrain,
Lebanon and Yemen.
The US would
defeat Iran, but the unintended consequences would have a ripple effect to
destabilize the region for many years. The refugee crisis would aggravate.
The Islamic State
terrorist group will most certainly seize the opportunity to strengthen its
position. An attack would delay Iran’s nuclear program for some years but would
invite retaliation. If the entire territory of Iran is not under control - an
extremely costly thing to do - there will be no opportunities for inspection
and verification anymore.
Without regime
change, an attack galvanize Iran to build a nuclear weapon. If the US topples
the Iranian government it will be involved in a nation building effort-
something it has failed to do in Iraq and Afghanistan. The cost will be great
enough to make this mission infeasible. A dynamic of escalation, action, and
counteraction could produce serious unintended consequences.
According to Wall
Street Journal, the US intends to drive a wedge between Russia and Iran. This
attempt will fail. Russia cannot be pressed on foreign policy. Moscow and
Tehran are engaged in fruitful cooperation in many areas. The countries are
allies in Syria.
Russia is
concerned by escalating rhetoric between the United States and Iran and will do
its best to reduce tensions between the two countries. It’s worth to note Iran
has never been complicit in any links to the Islamic State. Moscow is perfectly
suited for the role of intermediary to prevent the worst. If a spark kindles a
big fire, the Islamic State will be the biggest winner.
A Trump le van a plantar un crucero hundido por misiles iranies en el Golfo Persico.
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