El gráfico
muestra la evolución de los valores de Petrobrás y del índice Ibovespa en los
últimos ocho meses. Nótese que, cuando a comienzos del mes de Marzo el circo
del Impeachment comienza a tomar forma, las acciones de Petrobrás comienzan a
subir precipitadamente. Lo que se dice la casualidad permanente, chicos.
Otra figura
relevante para el análisis la ofrece el gráfico de acá abajo. Se muestra un
esquema de las áreas de eventual concesión del petróleo “pre-” o “sub-salt”.
O sea, el
petróleo que, por debajo de los 5.000 metros de profundidad y luego de
atravesar napas y napas de salitre, aparece off-shore frente a Río y áreas
aledañas. Entiéndase bien: estamos hablando de costos siderales de extracción,
claramente por encima de los 100 dólares el barril. De hecho, el gobierno
brasileño comenzó a activar la idea de explotar estos yacimientos, hace ya tres
años, cuando en ese entonces el barril sobrepasaba los 120 dólares. A todo esto se nos dice que
el mundo está nadando en petróleo, que hay por todos lados, que en cualquier
momento se inventa el energético del futuro, bla bla bla. Pero las petroleras
se matan por unos campos que están a 200 km de la costa y a 5.000 metros de
profundidad. ¿Qué raro, no?
Leemos en el Zero
Hedge de hoy:
Título: What's
Next For Big Oil Now Brazilian President Rousseff Is Suspended?
Texto: Brazilian
President Dilma Rousseff has been suspended from office following a senate vote
to initiate her impeachment trial on corruption allegations that lead back to
state-run Petrobras, leaving vice-president Michel Temer to take over in the
interim, while foreign oil companies wait anxiously to see what this will mean
for the industry.
Rousseff has
denied any wrongdoing and refers to the impeachment process as a ‘’coup’’.
Temer is an academic
who has also been accused of corruption. He is expected to take office today.
He may remain in office until the end of Rousseff’s term in 2018 if the senate
votes this through. For now, however, the senate has voted only to suspend
Rousseff for 180 days.
Temer is expected
to pursue privatization of state assets if he is left in office, and Brazil’s
strong labor unions will fight this. An immediate strike has already been
threatened by the labor union behind Transpetro—Petrobras’s transportation
subsidiary—over Rousseff’s suspension. Other industry-related labor unions are
also talking about strikes.
For the oil
industry, nothing is clear. While the industry is seeking reforms on a number
of levels, including changes to rules that require state-run Petrobras to have
a 30-percent operating stake in all sub-salt projects and changes to tough
local content rules, nothing is likely to be decided until Rousseff’s status is
definitive.
At the same time,
there were already indications that the oil industry was gaining ground with
the current government. The day before Rousseff’s suspension announcement,
Brazil said it was planning to push through new regulations any day that would
allow companies other than state-run Petrobras to operate some sub-salt
projects, according to anonymous sources cited by Reuters. These projects are
part of the Subsalt Polygon—where the major discoveries have been—and presently
only Petrobras can operate them.
There has been no
independent confirmation of this report, and it remains unclear what the status
of this potential relaxation may be in light of Rousseff’s suspension.
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