Varios analistas
han salido a comentar las posibles consecuencias de los movimientos militares en
torno a Siria de las últimas horas. Los que no son directamente apocalípticos,
son francamente pesimistas. Acá van dos de estos últimos. La primera nota
es de Andrei Akulov para el sitio web Strategic Culture Foundation. Acá va:
Título: Saudi
Arabia Deploys Forces to Turkey: Another Big Step in Bringing the World Closer
to War
Texto: The
complex, multi-sided war in Syria, raging since 2011, has drawn in most
regional and global powers, caused the world’s worst humanitarian crisis and
attracted recruits to Islamist militancy from around the world. Now it is
turning for worse as military preparations in Turkey get underway.
Saudi Arabia is
deploying fighter jets to the southern Turkish air base of Incirlik as the
kingdom prepares to take part in an intensified campaign in Syria. About 20
Saudi jets have reportedly arrived at the base in Adana in southern Turkey.
Turkish Foreign
Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu confirmed the Saudi aerial deployment on February 13,
«Saudi Arabia declared its determination against Daesh [the Islamic State] by
saying that they were ready to send both jets and troops».
Cavusoglu
indicated that ground operations might also be pursued. The minister emphasized
that no strategy for joint ground operations has yet been presented to the
coalition. «If we have such a strategy, then Turkey and Saudi Arabia may launch
an operation from the land», he said. Referring to criticism that Turkey has
been «unwilling» to join the fight against the Islamic State, he said his
government has been «pushing for more tangible suggestions».
Turkish
television channels NTV and CNN Turk carried remarks by the minister suggesting
that Turkey and Saudi Arabia see eye-to-eye on the need for ground operations
in Syria.
Turkey’s
commitment comes after Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said they
would supply Special Forces troops as part of a force under the US-led
coalition. Defense Secretary Ashton Carter appealed to coalition partners in
Brussels to provide more resources.
US Special
Operations forces are already operating in Syria.
If Saudi Arabia
commits boots to the ground, it would be an exceptional move. It has had
regular clashes with Yemen and contributed 3,000 troops during the 1973
Arab-Israeli Yom Kippur War. If the deployment of Saudi troops to Syria
happens, it will mark the first time for Riyadh military to battle Sunni Muslim
extremists – the forces it has been so often accused of supporting.
It was reported
on February 13, that Turkish forces have been shelling Menagh air base, a
former Syrian Air Force facility that Kurds seized from Islamist rebels just
days ago, and three other positions between the airport and Turkish border.
Kurds report
about the combat actions through their twitter accounts. «Can’t get more
complicated. American ally (Turkey) shelling another American ally», one of the
tweets reads.
In case of
invasion, the Turks will come up against the YPG, the Syrian Kurdish group
allied to the Turkish Kurds of the PKK, known as tough warriors. And they are
the best fighters for the US to side with in the fight against the Islamic
State. The United States has provided air cover for their operations. Turkish
President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has lashed the Obama administration for this,
accusing Washington of helping to create a «sea of blood». Russia is also
building close ties with Syria Kurds. On February 10, they opened a
representation office in Moscow. Russia supported the idea of their
participation in the Geneva talks on Syria.
The events unfold
as NATO has just announced its intent to send warships to the Eastern
Mediterranean to «close off a key access route» for migrants traveling by sea
from Turkey to Greece to reach the heart of Europe.
According to
Gordon Duff, senior editor of Veterans Today, a US online journal representing
the position of members of the military and veteran community, Russian and
Syrian jets are on standby to shoot down any Turkish or Saudi plane that
crosses into Syria. Turkey is prepared to close the Bosporus and attack Russian
ships in the Mediterranean.
Russian Prime
Minister Dmitry Medvedev warned the US and Saudi Arabia against starting
«permanent war» with ground intervention in Syria. «All sides must be compelled
to sit at the negotiating table, instead of unleashing yet another war on
Earth», Medvedev told German Handelsblatt newspaper. «Any kinds of land
operations, as a rule, lead to a permanent war. Look at what’s happened in
Afghanistan and a number of other countries. I am not even going to bring up
poor Libya».
«The Americans
and our Arab partners must think well: do they want a permanent war? Do they
think they can really quickly win it? It is impossible, especially in the Arab
world. Everyone is fighting against everyone there», Medvedev added.
Neither Riyadh
nor Ankara appears to be happy about the looming prospects of peace in
Syria. They are frantically trying to
redress the balance on the ground with the projected sending in of troops. The
reports about the incoming invasion of Syria may tip a fine balance between
fragile hopes for a ceasefire and the slide into the quagmire of bloody
conflict at the time the US and Russia are working towards a nationwide
cessation of hostilities in Syria, identifying areas under so-called terrorist
control that would remain subject to air strikes. The deal agreed on February
12 is intended to pave the way for renewed peace talks in Geneva. Turkey and
Saudi Arabia are trying to undermine the ongoing diplomatic efforts and pushing
the main actors involved in the conflict towards war with unpredictable
results. They are playing with fire. The US, the EU, and Russia – the main
actors joined together must stop them before it is too late.
***
La segunda nota
es de Elijah J. Magnier y apareció en su sitio web
https://elijahjm.wordpress.com/:
Título: The
“Gates of hell” will be open in the coming months in Syria
Texto: A
high-ranking officer within the joint operations room in Damascus, which
includes Russia, Iran and Syria and Hezbollah said, “there are three possible
scenarios in Syria: The first is the Arab ground troops would enter Syria from
the Turkish borders, in the area under the so-called “Islamic State” group
(ISIS) on the long front from Jarablus to Al-Ra’ee. This can be possible and
quickly achievable if a kind of an agreement is reached between Turkey and
ISIS. After all, the Jihadist group has to face either the Turkish-Arab forces
– that could allow a possible exit – or the Russian-Iranian-Hezbollah forces
where there will be no exit”.
“The second
scenario is through the Jordanian borders East of Syria up to Raqqa. A longer
road but would allow Saudi Arabia to bring its logistic and armoured support to
push all the way to the ISIS-controlled land. In both scenarios, these troops,
Arabs or Turkish-Arabs, would not clash or contact or even walk into the
Russia-Damascus and allies military operational stage. The third scenario is
that the Saudi are boosting the moral of the Jihadist so these don’t surrender
easily and hold the ground for as long as possible”.
The source said:
“Any scenario is linked to the will of the United States to be engaged in a war
in Syria. This is exactly what the Saudi officials said. The U.S. is sending
the Awacs aircraft because any U.S direct intervention on the ground is totally
excluded. This could be the U.S. contribution, along the diplomatic effort in
Geneva. Never the less, we build our military reaction based on the strong
possibility that the Arab ground troops are most likely to invade Syria. These
forces, under the title of defeating ISIS, won’t reach Raqqa overnight.
Logistic support and troops movement from Jordan into Syria require between 3
to 4 months to be completed. These forces, in this case, are expected to
advance from Jordan, into al-Badiyah and continue up north toward Raqqa, the
northern Syrian city, as a possible scenario. Any potential contact with the
Syrian forces could lead to a larger war”.
“We do not
exclude the fact that Saudi Special Forces could act behind ISIS lines to guide
airtrikes or carry small scale attacks. None the less, these forces cannot
contribute to defeat ISIS but in directing specific targets. Any attack that
could weaken ISIS is considered to our advantage. The U.S. led coalition can
bomb ISIS any time but no ground troops would be welcome. Moreover, no jet is
allowed to enter the Syrian space without prior coordination with Russia,
otherwise it will be considered as a potential target. This is also another
fact to consider. Therefore, no one is willing to see a large scale war, mainly
President Obama who has avoided to be entangled in the Syrian war for the last
two years”.
Russian Prime
Minister Dimitry Medvedev said, “all parties should sit down at the negotiating
table instead of causing an outbreak of a new world war”, rumbling the drum of
war in Syria. The Russian warning came after the confirmation of a spokesman
for the Saudi Defense minister Ahmad Asiri “the Saudi Kingdom has announced the
establishment of the new Islamist alliance to fight terrorism and is ready to
carry out air and ground operations within the international coalition led by
the United States in Syria.”
“The aim of the
Arab forces is to divide Syria is two parts: “Gharbistan” (western) and
“Sharqistan”(Eastern) similar to what happened in Berlin after World War II. In
the first part, the Syrian army will continue fighting al-Qaeda and its allies
with the support of Russia. While in the second part, the Arabs would establish
their forces to impose a political change and could destabilise the regime. In
the meantime, the regime forces are at 60km from Raqqa, while, Turkey is at 180
km from ISIS main city. Therefore, if the idea to defeat ISIS is genuine, the
U.S led coalition doesn’t need to intervene and walk all this distance from
Turkey or Jordan to Raqqa. However, The race to Raqqa is declared, with the
possibility or without the possibility of an Arab-Turkish intervention”.
According to the
source “the gates of hell will be open in the next 3 months in Syria against
al-Qaeda and its allies and also against ISIS. As agreed in Geneva between
Russia and the United States, any cease-fire shall not include Jihadists and
their allies. If Syrian opposition do not disengage from al-Qaeda, they are
legitimate targets because they become united as one group and dealt with
accordingly”.
Al-qaeda in
Syria, known as Jabhat al-Nusra, is part of Jaish al-fateh, a coalition of many
Syrian groups operating in northern Syria. Al-Qaeda and Jihadist movements are
sending reinforcement to northern Aleppo in the last 48 hours, but used to
maintain a strong presence around Nubbl and Zahraa, the two cities that Russia
and its allies brock the siege imposed for over three and a half years.
Al-Qaeda fighters pulled back toward the north of Aleppo fighting in Tal-Rifaat
and others toward the south of Zahraa where they are fighting in Andan and
Hay’yan.
According to the
source, human and signal intelligence confirmed that “Saudi Arabia has asked
Syrian opposition associated and not-associated with al-Qaeda not to waive any
proposition in the Geneva negotiations and not to hand over any city in Syria
without fighting. Time is crucial and Saudi Arabia will continue its military
support to the opposition, waiting for a new U.S. to be elected. The battle is
expected to be more intense where everybody is holding the ground which
indicates that the war is still far form being over”
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