Nace el petroyuan

El mundo está de la nuca, chicos. Ajústense los cinturones porque vienen días y semanas de locos. No excluyan la posibilidad de que nuestro planeta se convierta en un cenicero radiactivo, claro está.  El nivel de agresiones entre las principales potencias es de un nivel probablemente nunca antes visto. Por qué se juega tanto con fuego? Primero pasemos a la noticia de hoy, y mañana a un análisis más a fondo. La noticia de hoy es el lanzamiento en el mercado de los primeros futuros en petroyuanes. Así lo anunciaba Russia Today:

Título: El petroyuán debuta en las grandes ligas de las finanzas mundiales

Subtítulo: China comienza este lunes a emitir contratos 'futuros' sobre petróleo denominados en yuanes.

Texto: La moneda de China, el yuan, logra dar un paso más en su larga marcha hacia la internacionalización. A partir de este lunes 26 de marzo, la República Popular China comienza a emitir contratos 'futuros' sobre petróleo denominados en yuanes. A través de la Bolsa Internacional de Energía de Shanghái (INE, por sus siglas en inglés), el gigante asiático lanza sus primeros instrumentos financieros derivados sobre petróleo crudo. El acontecimiento representa un gran cambio en elmercado mundial deenergía, apunta la revista estadounidense Foreign Policy.

Una vez terminados todos los trámites burocráticos, los chinos establecen la primera referencia de contratos 'futuros' sobre petróleo en la región Asia-Pacífico. Después de superar a EE.UU. como el principal importador de petróleo en escala global el año pasado, China aumenta su influencia en la fijación de los precios del oro negro. Así, las plazas financieras de EE.UU. y el Reino Unido pierden el monopolio sobre la emisión de instrumentos financieros derivados relacionados con el petróleo. El billete verde ya no está solo: el petroyuán debuta en las grandes ligas de las finanzas mundiales.

¿Qué son los contratos 'futuros' sobre petróleo?

Materias primas ('commodities') como el petróleo no se comercializan solamente en los mercados físicos, se transan en los mercados financieros. Los recursos naturales se representan a través de títulos financieros que son adquiridos en las bolsas de valores. Los contratos 'futuros', por su parte, son instrumentos financieros derivados: se llaman así porque su valor está basado en el precio de otro activo.

Los contratos 'futuros' sobre materias primas ('commodities') son diversos, incluyen una amplia gama de activos: oro, plata, cobre, petróleo crudo, entre otros. Bajo la cotización del dólar, el índice West Texas Intermediate (WTI) de Nueva York y el Brent de Londres eran las únicas referencias a la hora de comercializar contratos 'futuros' sobre petróleo.

Hoy la República Popular China está logrando traducir su poderío económico en un mayor protagonismo en las finanzas internacionales. La INE se propuso ganar autonomía y dictar sus propias reglas: la emisión de 'futuros' denominados en yuanes permite a China tener una referencia propia que refleja los precios del petróleo crudo que consumen sus refinerías.

Los 'futuros' sobre petróleo sirven para que los compradores se protejan ('cubran') de las fluctuaciones de precios: son la promesa entre dos partes de que, en una fecha futura, el crudo se va a comercializar a un precio determinado. En el año 2012, por ejemplo, cuando el precio superaba los 100 dólares por barril, los 'futuros' sirvieron como instrumentos de cobertura de riesgo ante la posibilidad de subidas consecutivas de precios.

Sin embargo, son contratos que no se adquieren solamente para protegerse de la volatilidad. También hay quienes los compran para obtener ganancias a través de la especulación. Los precios de los contratos 'frutos' pueden ser objeto de manipulación y generar distorsiones en los mercados. Actualmente, la proporción entre el volumen de crudo que se negocia en los mercados financieros y el que se transa en los mercados físicos es de 23 a uno, según información de Bloomberg.

La euforia especulativa, el gran peligro

Los chinos están interesados en que sus 'futuros' sobre petróleo sean comprados por un número cada vez mayor de inversionistas. De acuerdo con Reuters, el Ministerio de Finanzas está otorgando incentivos para que las emisiones sean un éxito: durante los próximos tres años los corredores extranjeros no pagarán impuestos sobre la renta sobre las comisiones que obtengan en los contratos.

El coche del presidente Donald Trump con las banderas de China y EE.UU. durante su visita a Pekín, 9 de noviembre de 2017.¿Será China una alternativa para México si Trump revienta las negociaciones del TLCAN?

El lanzamiento de 'futuros' sobre petróleo, sin embargo, no está exento de amenazas. La especulación puede provocar estragos en los mercados bursátiles. Las autoridades chinas están pendientes ante cualquier contingencia: quieren internacionalizar la "moneda del pueblo" ('renminbi') pero, al mismo tiempo, garantizar la estabilidad financiera. Hasta el momento, los contratos 'futuros' de China están regulados.

Todo un dilema para el gigante asiático. Si se promueve una mayor apertura del sector financiero hacia el exterior, los riesgos aumentan. Pero si el Gobierno continúa imponiendo restricciones a los inversionistas, el yuan nunca será una divisa plenamente convertible: es necesario que tanto nacionales como extranjeros puedan comprar y vender títulos denominados en yuanes sin restricción alguna.

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Por su parte, así lo cuenta Zero Hedge:

Título: 'PetroYuan' Futures Launch With A Bang, Volume Dominates Brent As Big Traders Step In

Texto: As we detailed previously, China’s yuan-denominated crude oil futures launched overnight in Shanghai with 62,500 contracts traded in aggregate, meaning over 62 million barrels of oil changed hands for a notional volume around 27 billion yuan (over $4 billion).

As OilPrice.com's Tsvetana Paraskova notes, Glencore, Trafigura, and Freepoint Commodities were among the first to buy the new contract, Reuters reports.

After an initial surge in volume that outpaced overnight transactions in global benchmark Brent crude in London, trading tapered off toward the end of the session

Within minutes of the launch, the price had gone up to almost US$70.85 (447 yuan) from a starting price of US$69.94 (440.4 yuan) per barrel. The overall price jump for the short trading session came in at 3.92 percent.

Many awaited the launch eagerly, seeking to tap China’s bustling commodity markets, although doubts remain whether the Shanghai futures contract will be able to become another international oil benchmark. These doubts center on the fact that China is not a market economy, and the government is quick to interfere in the workings of the local commodity markets on any suspicion of a bubble coming.

To prevent such a bubble in oil, the authorities made sure the contract will trade within a set band of 5 percent on either side, with 10 percent on either side for the first trading day. Margin has been set at 7 percent. Storage costs for the crude are higher than the international average in hopes of discouraging speculators.

As a result of these tight reins on the new market segment, some analysts believe international investors would be discouraged to tap the Shanghai oil futures. If the first day of trading is any indication, however, this is not the case, at least not for large commodity trading firms.

While it remains to be seen whether they’re in it for the long haul, the participation of Glencore, Trafigura and other foreign investors in the contract’s debut is a boon.

On the other hand, China is not leaving everything to market forces.

One energy consultant told Reuters that:

“The government (in Beijing) seems determined to support it, and I hear a number of firms are being asked or pressured to trade on it, which could help.”

PetroChina and Sinopec are seen as instrumental in providing long-term liquidity for the new market as well.

Additionally, Bloomberg reports that contract grades in Shanghai crude oil futures exchange could account for around 200 billion yuan in trades, based on China’s current import volumes, helping the nation in its efforts to internationalize its currency, Wood Mackenzie’s research director Sushant Gupta says in an emailed note.

Woodmac expects China’s crude import requirements to grow by ~2.1m b/d from 2017 to 2023, noting that incremental oil-requirement growth in China is much larger than any other country - meaning China would want to play a more active role in influencing the price of crude oil.

Trades on Shanghai International Energy Exchange, also known as INE, will enable China’s crude-buying patterns to become more transparent to the world in the longer term, and will reflect China's crude supply-demand dynamic, becoming a reference for China’s crude market (which is likely to have a bigger influence on global prices).

Woodmac expects INE prices to influence Basrah Light, Oman prices as a start as the grades account for a significant portion of contract volumes. China imports ~600k b/d of Oman crude which is large enough to start influencing Oman prices, which are retroactively set by the Oman Ministry of Oil and Gas.

Interestingly, as the PetroYuan started trading, so offshore yuan began to rally and has extended those gains today...

As we most recently noted, after numerous "false starts" over the last decade,  the “petroyuan” is now real and China will set out to challenge the “petrodollar” for dominance. Adam Levinson, managing partner and chief investment officer at hedge fund manager Graticule Asset Management Asia (GAMA), already warned last year that China launching a yuan-denominated oil futures contract will shock those investors who have not been paying attention.

This could be a death blow for an already weakening U.S. dollar, and the rise of the yuan as the dominant world currency.

But this isn’t just some slow, news day “fad” that will fizzle in a few days.

A Warning for Investors Since 2015

Back in 2015, the first of a number of strikes against the petrodollar was dealt by China. Gazprom Neft, the third-largest oil producer in Russia, decided to move away from the dollar and towards the yuan and other Asian currencies.

Iran followed suit the same year, using the yuan with a host of other foreign currencies in trade, including Iranian oil.

During the same year China also developed its Silk Road, while the yuan was beginning to establish more dominance in the European markets.

But the U.S. petrodollar still had a fighting chance in 2015 because China’s oil imports were all over the place. Back then, Nick Cunningham of OilPrice.com wrote…

Despite accounting for much of the world’s growth in demand in the 21st Century, China’s oil imports have been all over the map in recent months. In April, China imported 7.4 million barrels per day, a record high and enough to make it the world’s largest oil importer. But a month later, imports plummeted to just 5.5 million barrels per day.

That problem has since gone away, signaling China’s rise to oil dominance…

The Slippery Slope to the Petroyuan Begins Here

The petrodollar is backed by Treasuries, so it can help fuel U.S. deficit spending. Take that away, and the U.S. is in trouble.

It looks like that time has come…

A death blow that began in 2015 hit again in 2017 when China became the world’s largest consumer of imported crude…

Now that China is the world’s leading consumer of oil, Beijing can exert some real leverage over Saudi Arabia to pay for crude in yuan. It’s suspected that this is what’s motivating Chinese officials to make a full-fledged effort to renegotiate their trade deal.

So fast-forward to now, and the final blow to the petrodollar could happen starting today. We hinted at this possibility back in September 2017…

With major oil exporters finally having a viable way to circumvent the petrodollar system, the U.S. economy could soon encounter severely troubled waters.

First of all, the dollar’s value depends massively on its use as an oil trade vehicle. When that goes away, we will likely see a strong and steady decline in the dollar’s value.

Once the oil markets are upended, the yuan has an opportunity to become the dominant world currency overall. This will further weaken the dollar.

The Petrodollar’s Downfall Could be a Lift for Gold

Amongst all the trouble ahead for the dollar, there are some good news too. The U.S. might have ditched the gold standard in the 1970’s, but with gold making a return to world headlines… we could see a resurgence.

For the first time since our nation abandoned the gold standard decades ago, physical gold is being reintroduced to the global monetary system in a major way. That alone is incredibly good news for gold owners.

A reintroduction of gold to the global economy could result in a notable rise in gold prices. It’s safe to assume exporters are more likely to choose a gold-backed financial instrument over one created out of thin air any day of the week.

Soon after, we could see more and more nations jump on the bandwagon, resulting in a substantial rise in gold prices.