¡Qué poco duran los mandatos de referendums independentistas hoy en día! Hace un rato los kurdos se mandaron a guardar y le prometieron al gobierno de Irak volver el Kurdistán a sus fronteras de 2003. En fin, chicos, que el independentismo paga poco, o directamente no paga (atentti Cataluña!). La primera de las dos notas que posteamos hoy es del sitio web Moon of Alabama y sirve de contexto a la segunda; acá va:
Título: Syria, Iraq - Why The Kurdish Independence Project Died
Texto: The bid of the Kurdish Barzani clan for an independent Kurdistan in north Iraq and beyond has utterly failed. Masoud Barzani, the strongman of the Iraqi Kurdish region, had called for the referendum to divert from his government's financial problems. Other Kurdish powerhouses saw it as a last attempt by Barzani to save his failing political position. The referendum asked for independence including in "Kurdistani areas outside the (Kurdistan) Region". It was an annexation bid. National Iraqi forces as well as the international powers turned against it. Masoud Barzani and his family are now likely to lose their leading position.
The various unilateral Kurdish assertions since 2003 will be driven back. The dream of Kurdish independence in Iraq and Syria is, for now, dead. This is a positive development for both countries.
Since 2003 and especially since 2014 the Kurds had pushed far beyond their original borders. They occupied areas with diverse populations and with critical Iraqi oil reserves. With backing from the Iraqi parliament, public opinion and international support the Iraqi government of Prime Minister Abadi had for months demanded a return of the 2003 borders. It condemned the illegal independence bid.
The ruling Barzani family mafia sold the oil and pocketed the money that by law was owned to Iraq's federal government. The Barzani militia mafia occupied the federal border stations to neighboring countries and kept all custom income to themselves. Meanwhile teachers and other public workers in the Kurdish region went unpaid.
The Barzani family clan is only one of the powers in the Kurdish region of Iraq. Historically its main competitors are the Talabani clan. Both clans control their own political parties (KDP and PUK) and militia. Both had been fighting against each other during a civil war in the 1990s. Then the Barzanis called in help from Iraqi president Saddam Hussein to defeat their local enemies.
Over the last decade the Talabanis were handicapped by their ailing patriarch Jalal Talabani. After the U.S. invasion of Iraq he eschewed a major role in the Kurdish region in exchange for the ceremonial position of a president of Iraq. When Jalal Talbani died on October 2 his family immediately asserted its position. It negotiated a deal with the central Iraqi government to reign in the Barzanis' quasi dictatorial powers. The Iranian General Qassam Suleiman helped to arrange the agreement.
When the Iraqi government forces, as previously announced, moved to retake Kirkuk from the Kurds the Kurdish militia forces (peshmerga) under PUK/Talibani command retreated as planned. The militia under KDP/Barzani command were left in an indefensible position and had to flee in haste.
Yesterday and today Iraqi national forces retook control of various large oil fields the Kurds had occupied. They are also back in control of border stations with Syria and Turkey. After three years the Yazidi can finally go back to Sinjar. The Mosul Dam is again in government hands. Without oil and customs dues the Kurdish region lacks the assets and income to finance any regional independence. While his project collapsed in front of everyone's eyes, not a word was heard from Masoud Barzani.
The Iraqi government will not only retake full control of the areas the Kurds under Brazani had illegally usurped. It will also demand new regional elections. It is doubtful that Masoud Barzani, or any of his sons, can win such local elections after all the mismanagement and disasters they caused.
In Syria the Kurdish YPG/SDF forces today took full control of Raqqa. It will take months to clear the last remands ISIS left behind. It will take years to rebuild the city as it was largely destroyed by U.S. air support during the fight against ISIS.
In Deir Ezzor the last Islamic State positions are collapsing under attacks of Syrian government forces. In a few more days and weeks the city and countryside will also be fully liberated.
The war against ISIS is coming to an end. The Kurdish independence project in Iraq has died. The Kurds in Syria will now also be cut back to size. With less than 8% of the population the YPG led Kurds had taken control of 20% of the land and some 40% of the hydrocarbon resources. They will have to give up those gains.
The Kurdish forces in Syria had material and personal support from U.S. forces. Most of the equipment and munition was transported by U.S. planes to Erbil, the capital of the Kurdish region in Iraq, and from there by land through Iraqi-Syrian border stations under Barzani's control. The Iraqi government in Baghdad will now be back in control of those crossings. The flow of U.S. material into the Kurdish-Syrian areas is no longer assured.
The U.S. had long supported Kurdish autonomy in Iraq. It has now taken the side of the Iraqi central government. The (Barzani) Kurds were left hanging. The Kurds in Syria surely recognized that and they will calculate appropriately.
Meanwhile Turkish forces have invaded Idelb governate in north-west Syria and nearly surrounded the Kurdish enclave of Efrin. Only Russia is holding Erdogan back from moving any further. Last weekend the military leader of the YPG/SDF in Syria, Sipan Hamo, visited Moscow. He wants Russian protection for Efrin but for that he will have to pay a price.
The Kurds in Syria will have to reconcile with the Syrian government. Political support from Washington is obviously not reliable. Without U.S. air support the Kurdish military positions are way overstretched. The flow of material support to them is now under latent control of the Baghdad which is allied with the Syrian government side. Only Damascus and its allies in Moscow can prevent the fall of Efrin.
There is no trump card left to play for the Kurds. They can hope that Russia will help them to achieve some bits of federal autonomy in areas of Syria where they are the majority. They will have to give up their other gains.
Zionist forces, which want to split up Syria, will try their best to prevent a U.S. retreat from Syria. Some in the U.S. military will want to continue their alliance with Syrian Kurds. But Turkey as well as Iraq are against further U.S. support for Kurdish forces. Without any assured air, land or sea route the U.S. military can not sustain a long term involvement in Syria. Moreover - there is nothing to gain for it.
I expect that President Trump will declare victory over ISIS in Raqqa and order the U.S. military to leave the country. There will likely be some minor involvement for months to come but the main operation will be wrapped up. What is left of ISIS in Syria's east will be rolled up by the Syrian army and its allies.
Over the last decades, and especially since the (foreign induced) Salafi insurrection weakened the states of Syria and Iraq, the Kurds had made huge territorial and political gains. But they became overly greedy and did not see that these gains were not sustainable. Iraq and Syria reasserted themselves. The "western" allies of the Kurds rediscovered that their strategic interests are best served by intact nation states.
As I wrote elsewhere, the Kurds are an extremely diverse people:
There are four Kurdish languages which are not mutually understandable. There are a dozen religions among Kurds though a majority are (Sufi) Sunni. They have been schooled and socialized in four different states. There are tribal conglomerates or clans like the Barzani and Talibani which have their own political parties and are led by patriarchal family mafias. There are members of the anarcho-marxist cult of Özalan while neighboring Salafi Kurds have joined ISIS to then kill the neighboring Yezidi Kurds. None of these groups has any enlightened or democratic understanding of the world.
The Kurds never got a state and will never get one because they are so hugely diverse and have little national unity. They will rather fight each other than accept some common leadership.
Over centuries the Kurdish people never found the agreement among themselves that is needed to form a viable nation state. The fall of their latest independence bid only confirm this weakness.
***
La segunda nota, por su parte, viene de Zero Hedge:
Título: Iraqi Kurd Army Agrees To Return To 2003 Border, Oil Slides
Texto: In a dramatic de-escalation of recent hostilities in Iraqi Kurdistan, where in a blitz campaign the Iraqi army was able to recapture Kirkuk , effectively regaining control of the oil-rich region, the Kurdish Peshmerga forces, i.e. the army of the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan told Sky News Arabia that it has agreed to return to the 2003 Iraq border, which if confirmed would be a major concession to Iraq which has been pushing for just this conclusion for the past month.
The opportunistic Kurdistan Regional Government increased its territory by at least 40% during the war with Islamic State, bringing many of these disputed areas under its control after the Iraqi army withdrew in the face of advancing ISIS militants. However, as Iraqi forces and pro-govt militias have already regained control of many of these areas, including Kirkuk, over the past 48 hours, the Iraqi Kurdistan region had no other choice. According to the Kurdish news service Rudaw, the pre-2003 borders "exclude disputed areas such as Kirkuk, Khanaqin, Tuz Khurmatu, Makhmour, and Zumar from the Kurdistan Region."
Incidentally, at the start of September, Rudaw reported that Baghdad wants the Kurdistan Region to withdraw from disputed areas and return to pre-2003 borders between the autonomous region and Iraq, said Kurdistan President Masoud Barzani. At the time Barzani vowed that the Peshmerga will not retreat from any areas that were taken "with the blood of fallen soldiers." It took one month for him to change his tune.
Barzani said at the time that the planned independence referendum can work as a peaceful tool to settle outstanding issues between Erbil and Baghdad. In retrospect it turned out to be an epic disaster for the Kurdish autonomous region, which is about to lose a substantial portion of its territories.
Meanwhile, the Iraqi recalamation of Kirkuk appears to have gone without bloodshed, with US Coalition forces stating that aside from one incident of "miscommunication" no further reports of armed conflict between ISF-Kurdish Peshmerga.
If Sky News Arabia is confirmed, it would imply that a major geopolitical risk factor, and a potential upside catalyst for oil prices, has been eliminated. Tangentially, earlier today Goldman released a report called the "return of oil's geopolitical risks" in which it claimed that "Geopolitical risks to the oil market have continued to intensify, with Iraq’s military seizing oil fields formerly controlled by the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) yesterday, Monday, October 16 and President Trump decertifying the Iranian deal on Friday."
Well, at least half of these risks may now have been resolved, and if so expect the price of oil to react appropriately, which it is indeed doing...
Finally, Masoud Barzani, president of the autonomous Kurdish Iraqi region, issued the following statement on Tuesday:
Salahadin, Kurdistan Region of Iraq, (Krp.org)- President Masoud Barzani issued a statement today regarding the recent events in the Kurdistan Region which commenced with the attack on the city of Kirkuk in the hands of the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces.
The statement begins by referring to the fact that the people of Kurdistan have throughout history been oppressed and have lived with injustice. This injustice and this oppression have stemmed, the President says from the Kurds' defense of their identity. They have been, he adds, subjected to genocide and mass murder, the most recent of such atrocities was in the hands of the terrorists of the Islamic State. The statement reminds the people of Kurdistan, Iraq and the world that in spite of these atrocities, the people of Kurdistan have always been against waging wars and have worked in pursuit of peace.
In reference to the recent events in Kirkuk, the President states that some people from a certain political party had unilaterally paved the way for such attack whose result was the withdrawal of the Peshmerga forces from Kirkuk.
The statement reassures the people of Kurdistan that all of the resources of the Kurdistan Region will be allocated for the security and stability of the Kurdistan Region.
President Barzani calls upon the political entities of the Kurdistan Region to work towards unity. He also commends the endurance of the people of the Kurdistan Region. He also calls upon all of the media outlets of the Kurdistan Region to work responsibly during these arduous times facing the people of the Kurdistan Region.
The President concludes the statement by saying that those who paid the ultimate sacrifice for Kurdistan have not been lost in vain, and the same shall be true for those who voted for an independent Kurdistan.
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