Poco se sabe

Poco se sabe sobre lo que realmente ocurrió anoche en los cielos de Siria. Todavía no hay un recuento realista de bajas o destrucción de edificios en ese país. Un pensamiento oscuro atraviesa la mente de Astroboy: ¿y si lo de anoche fue simplemente un test para evaluar la tecnología rusa de intercepción de misiles? ¿Y si lo peor todavía ni empezó? Decimos esto porque aparentemente siguen concentrándose en el Mediterráneo oriental una gran cantidad de barcos y aviones de la NATO. ¿Cuál sería, en esta premonición, el objetivo final de estos tipos? Una reflexión a cargo de un comentarista en el blog Moon of Alabama dice lo siguiente:

"There is a large concentration of naval and aerial forces in the Eastern Mediterranean, far more than were required to administer last night's slap on the wrist to Assad. The Pentagon declared it was a 'one-off strike' to serve as a warning, apparently to save face after all the preparations and bellicose rhetoric, but the Truman Carrier Group is still underway to the region. Why raise the stakes, and escalate the situation? Perhaps the real target is not Syria, but Iran? Or would it be inconceivable for the US naval forces, including submarines, to pass the straits and enter the Black Sea to confront Russia more directly? I submit that a false flag attack that can be blamed on Iran would indicate the former, while 'developments' in Ukraine could lead us to the latter nightmare scenario. In any event, Erdogan will have to go, in order to be replaced by 'our man' Fetullah Gulen, who will be able to accept an autonomous Kurdish region, keep Turkey in NATO orbit, and act as bulwark to expanding Russian and Iranian influence in the region."

Mientras seguimos rumiando estas cuestiones, reproducimos una nota de South Front sobre la efectividad de los sistemas antiaéreos sirios: 70%, nos dicen los chicos, aunque somos algo escépticos al respecto. De todos modos, y si esto es cierto, una de dos: (1) el Imperio acaba de comenzar su fase final de desintegración, o (2) Los chicos malos de la NATO están vendiéndole a Rusia un montón de carne podrida con miras a una intervención bélica próxima, tal vez muy cerca de Rusia. Pasemos a la nota:     



Título: Decisive Failure Of US Forces

Texto: Early on April 14, the US, France and the UK carried out a massive missile strike on Syria justifying their actions with the alleged involvement of the Assad government into the April 7 Douma “chemical attack”.

The Russian Defense Minsitry stated that 103 cruise and air-to-surface missiles were launched on different targets across Syria adding that 71 of them were intercepted by the Syrian Air Defense Forces (SADF).

“According to available information, a total of 103 cruise missiles were fired… The Syrian air defense systems basically comprising Soviet-made weapons successfully repelled the strikes by aircraft and naval ships. A total of 71 missiles were intercepted,” Head of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operations Department Colonel-General Sergei Rudskoi said.

Rudskoi said that the SADF had used its S-125, S-200, Buk, Kvadrat and Osa air defense systems to repel the strike.

The Syrian General Command said that the US, the UK and France had launched 110 missiles also adding that most of them were intercepted.

The numbers provided raise serious questions.

Some experts contacted by SouthFront said that even theoretically the SADF had not been capable to shoot down more than 15-20% of the launched missiles using its S-125, S-200, Buk, Kvadrat and Osa systems only. The SADF just does not have enoguh means and measures to intercept such a number of missiles simultaneously in one striking wave.

So what really happened?

The experts suggested that the Russian military had possibly used its state-of-the-art electronic warfare (EW) systems to counter the launched missiles during their final phase of flight path.

The most part of the flight path, the guidance for the Tomahawk cruise missile is provided by GPS. However, in the final phase, the missile starts using its internal guidance system. During this phase of the flight path the missile is vulnerable for EW counter-measures.

The missiles impacted by EW systems start to steer off. The missiles’ speed significantly reduces and they become an easy target for air defense systems or fall.

Another factor, which “highly likely” contributed to the effectiveness of the Syrian counter-measures, is that Russia had provided the Syrian military with operational data from its technical reconnaissance net, including satellites and other surveillance means. Likely, Iran had done a similar thing. Thus, missiles launched from the Red Sea were detected immediately and were being tracked during all their flight path.

Using tracking data, Russian-made air defense systems are capable of shooting down cruise missiles with a relatively high efficiency.

In any case, the 71 intercepted missiles of 103 launched are a decisive failure for the US and its allies. No doubts, the US military leadership did not expect this scenario.

If the data provided by the Russian Defense Ministry is confirmed, this will be the first time in the history when some side was able to repel a massive strike of the so-called modern high-precision weapons/missiles. So, in a case of a nuclear exchange between the US and Russia, the Russians will be able to intercept most of the US attacking means suffering a minor damage. Russia’s nuclear strike would be a crushing blow.

So far [13:15 CET], the US has provided no comments on reports about the 71 downed missiles and has not even provided official info about the targets and weapons involved in its strike on Syria. Considering that the administration of US President Donald Trump likes “PR moves”, such a stance may be described as an idication that something “went wrong”.