Los libros de
historia del futuro dirán que el final del mundo unipolar, a comienzos del Siglo
XXI, ocurrió a fines de 2016 en la Batalla de Alepo, Siria. Como tantas otras
veces, fueron los fierros los que decidieron la cuestión. Pero la cosa no es
tan lineal. Otros hechos contribuyeron también a este final estrepitoso. De
ellos, tal vez el más sonoro haya sido la decisión del presidente Donald Trump
de poner fin a la participación de los EEUU en el Tratado Trans-Pacífico (TPP,
su sigla en inglés). Leemos el discreto obituario de esta iniciativa fallida (otra de las tantas de Barak Obama y los neocones del Imperio) en la siguiente nota de Peter Korzun
para el sitio web Strategic Culture Foundation:
Título: US Leaves
TPP: Farewell to Unipolar World
Texto: President
Trump withdrew the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)
signing an executive order on January 23 to formally pull out of the pact,
which would have covered 12 nations and about 40 percent of global gross
domestic product. The US-led deal would have reshaped commerce throughout the
Pacific Rim. Mr. Trump opposed the pact because he said it could hurt American
jobs. The agreement has never been ratified by Congress.
«For America’s
friends and partners, ratifying [the trade pact] is a litmus test for your
credibility and seriousness of purpose», said Singapore Prime Minister Lee
Hsien Loong speaking in the name of Pacific Rim signatories to the TPP. The
president’s decision leaves the door open for Beijing to lead the integration
process in the region. China has sought to expand its trade ties with its
neighbors and begun an ambitious infrastructure project designed to
reinvigorate ancient trading routes to the Middle East and Europe. In a speech
last week to the World Economic Forum at Davos, President Xi Jinping likened
protectionism to «locking oneself in a dark room».
The Beijing-led
16-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which notably
excludes the United States, may the world’s biggest free trade agreement (FTA)
to encompass 46% of global population, with a combined GDP of $17 trillion, and
40% of world trade. It will initially comprise several Southeast Asia
countries, plus Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand and India. Some
leaders from TPP nations signaled after Trump’s election they’d shift their
attention to the RCEP, with the next round of talks due to be held as soon as
next month in Japan.
It is a more
traditional trade agreement, involving cutting tariffs rather than opening up
economies and setting labor and environmental standards as TPP would. That deal
doesn’t currently include the US and contains fewer measures to tackle
non-tariff barriers to trade. The TPP is contentious in part because it
addressed issues like environmental and labor protections.
The RCEP was in
the focus of attention at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation summit held in
Peru last November. If RCEP succeeds, China would be in a stronger position to
lead a bigger free trade area in the future. Already in Asia, some countries,
like the Philippines, are aligning themselves with China. Chinese officials are
also welcoming Latin American nations to RCEP. China also advocates the idea of
Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), with the RCEP becoming its
fulcrum.
The other parties
to the TPP could decide to renegotiate it into an agreement just among
themselves, but some may feel they have no choice but to join the RCEP. Japan
and Australia expressed their commitment to the TPP on Jan. 24. They have
already started discussions with Singapore. The TPP can't be in force without
the US. It requires the ratification of at least six countries accounting for
85 percent of the combined gross domestic product of the member nations. Other
members of the deal would have to work around the US withdrawal.
Australian Trade
Minister Steven Ciobo said his country could push ahead with the TPP without
the United States by amending the agreement and possibly adding new members.
«We could look at, for example, if China or Indonesia or another country wanted
to join, saying, 'Yes, we open the door for them signing up to the agreement as
well». But, alternatively, some may feel they have no choice but to join the
RCEP. Malaysia has already shifted its attention to the China-honchoed
agreement.
The EU may
benefit from the US withdrawal. German Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel said that
the decision of US President Donald Trump to withdraw the country from TPP free
trade agreement will open new opportunities for the German economy. The
president has said he would try to renegotiate the North American Free Trade
Agreement (NAFTA), which governs trade with Mexico and Canada. After some time,
the US may event raise the issue of changing WTO rules.
The US withdrawal
from the TPP opens new prospects for Russia and the Russia-led Eurasian
Economic Union (EAEU). The EAEU already has free trade agreements with Vietnam
and Singapore. New Zealand refused to talk about it in 2014 but now it may
become more pliant as well as South Korea, Indonesia, Thailand and Chile. There
have been talks about setting up FTAs between the EAEU and specific ASEAN
countries, such as Singapore, Cambodia, Thailand and Indonesia. The Russia’s
trade turnover with these states is not very impressive but they are good
springboards for expansion.
Last June,
Russian President Vladimir Putin proposed to create a more extensive Eurasian
partnership on the basis of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) that would
involve China, India, Pakistan, Iran and a number of Community of Independent
States (CIS) countries among others willing to join. The Union has an integrated
single market of 183 million people and a gross domestic product of over 4
trillion US dollars. The EAEU introduces the free movement of goods, capital,
services and people and provides for common transport, agriculture and energy
policies, with provisions for a single currency and more extensive integration.
Last June, the
EAEU signed a joint declaration on transition to the negotiation stage for
development of the Agreement on Trade and Economic Cooperation between the
Eurasian Economic Union (the EAEU) and the People’s Republic of China. Recently
the EAEU has received around 40 proposals for free trade agreements (FTA). The
idea of forming an EAEU-ASEAN free trade area has already been floated.
The Pacific
integration process may result in the formation of a major Euro-Asian political
and economic arc to become the backbone of the world order in the 21st century
to cover a major part of the Eurasian space and most Asian countries with the
US excluded for the process. The US withdrawal from the TPP is a reflection of
the global trend with the world moving toward multipolarity in the global
economy.
la presidencia fallida de Obama dejo al imperio en su peor momento y la alternativa de Trump no mejora el panorama:
ResponderEliminarlos tpp y otros acuerdos de libre comercio eran las reglas que imponían las corporaciones yanquis al mundo, independiente de como afectarán la economía interna, para eeuu era una herramienta de influencia y control que esta dejando de lado.
ese vacío será ocupado por china y otros países, relegando la influencia del imperio menguante. el mundo gira bruscamente hacia china.
la única herramienta que el imperio cuenta para contener su declive es el militar. y en este punto también está re negociando la otan.
el más dañado por el nuevo orden mundial es Europa, si se le cierra el atlántico y hacia oriente depebdiente de los recursos del oso ruso, que tiene cuentas pendientes.