¿Comenzó la
corrida sobre el Deutsche Bank? Difícil saber si se trata de una escaramuza
aislada o de un evento sistémico. El cable de EFE dice así:
Título: Deutsche
Bank se hunde un 6,6% en Wall Street
Texto: El sector
financiero cayó en su conjunto un 1,40% arrastrado por el descenso del primer
banco alemán.
Deutsche, que
cerró con una ganancia del 1% en la Bolsa alemana, ha vivido sin embargo otra
jornada negra en Wal Street.
La cotización del
primer banco de Alemania ha caído un 6,67%, hasta los 11,48 dólares por acción,
arrastrando consigo al resto del sector financiero, que perdió en su conjunto
un 1,4%.
Los inversores
castigaron a Deutsche Bank después de conocerse hoy que el Gobierno alemán no
se plantea una intervención del Estado y negó que se prepare un "plan de
emergencia" para salvar al primer banco privado del país.
El banco alemán
atraviesa una grave crisis precipitada por la multa de 14.000 millones de
dólares que quiere imponerle el Departamento de Justicia estadounidense por
negocios con hipotecas dudosos entre 2005 y 2007.
***
Por su parte,
Mark Thompson y Paul R. La Monica escriben en CNN Money:
Título: Deutsche
Bank: Does it need a bailout?
Subtítulo:
Deutsche Bank is a $2 trillion problem
Texto: Deutsche
Bank has lost half its market value this year and profits have collapsed. No
wonder investors are worried.
The market panic
reached fever pitch this week -- the stock slumped to its lowest level in more
than 20 years -- on fears the bank may not be able to afford a massive U.S.
fine for trading in toxic mortgages a decade ago.
German media say
the situation is so bad that the government has begun looking at a potential
bailout.
Those reports
were denied by government and bank officials on Wednesday.
"The federal
government is not preparing any rescue plans," the German finance ministry
said in a statement. "There is no reason for such speculation. The bank
has made this absolutely clear."
Deutsche Bank
(DB) CEO John Cryan said he had never asked Chancellor Angela Merkel for help,
and that government aid is "not an option." The bank also said it is
not currently considering asking investors for more cash.
But the spate of
headlines, and the dramatic share price slide, show just how much is at stake.
Deutsche is
Germany's biggest lender by far. It has assets valued at 1.8 trillion euros ($2
trillion) on its books.
That's equivalent
to more than half the size of the German economy. Any suggestion that the top
bank in Europe's biggest and most robust economy is in trouble would send shock
waves through global markets.
The riskiest
bank?
The International
Monetary Fund rang alarm bells earlier this year. In a report in June, it said
Deutsche was the biggest single source of risk in the global banking system.
The bank also
employs more than 100,000 people, some 46,000 of them in Germany.
So how did it get
into such hot water? There's a long list of reasons.
The sins of the
past
The $14 billion
demand from the U.S. Justice Department related to mortgage-backed securities
is just the latest in a string of misconduct charges. Deutsche Bank has already
shelled out billions of dollars for manipulating global interest rates and
rigging foreign exchange markets.
Beat up business
model
Stricter
regulations that have been introduced since the global financial crisis have
made its core investment bank safer, but also much less profitable. And it
doesn't have a big retail bank or wealth management business to compensate --
smaller rivals control a much bigger share of the banking market in Germany
than elsewhere.
Record low
interest rates
Banks typically
make steady money on the difference between the interest they pay on deposits,
and what they charge on loans. When interest rates turn negative -- as they
have done in Europe -- that flow of revenue is squeezed hard.
What happens now?
Cryan, who took
over as CEO just over a year ago, has announced plans to shed at least 35,000
jobs by 2020, dispose of some businesses, and freeze dividend payments. On
Wednesday, it sold U.K. insurer Abbey Life for $1.2 billion, a deal that will
strengthen the bank's finances.
The bank will
negotiate hard to reduce the amount it has to pay the U.S. for selling toxic
mortgage products. But analysts say a figure above $6 billion may mean it has
to raise more money from somewhere. That could be tricky.
The next Lehman
Bros?
Is Deutsche Bank
about to trigger a rerun of the Lehman Bros crisis of 2008? Bankers and some
skeptical investors say not.
"This is not
as bad as Lehman and the mortgage crisis, or even the Long-Term Capital hedge
fund implosion in the late 1990s," said Brad Lamensdorf, a portfolio
manager for the Ranger Equity Bear (HDGE) exchange-traded fund.
Lamensdorf
started to short sell Deutsche Bank a few years ago due to concerns about its
balance sheet. And he doubled down on his bet that the stock would fall earlier
this summer.
Still, he's not
predicting a collapse. Instead, he feels that Deutsche's rivals will profit as
it continues to shrink.
"Deutsche is
in a weak position because it is so leveraged and doesn't have access to
credit. But its problems could mean more business for JPMorgan Chase (JPM),
Goldman Sachs (GS) and other big banks," he said.
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