Curioso el
silencio en torno a la intervención turca en Siria estos últimos días. Mucha
niebla, mucha información en las sombras. La nota que sigue es de Mark Sleboda
y fue reproducida ayer en el sitio web Moon of Alabama. A ver qué opinan:
Título: The
Turkish Invasion Of Syria As Path To "Regime Change"
Texto: The
US-backed Turkish invasion of Syria with its proxies in tow now moves further
into Syria to seize Al-Bab in a landgrab to create Erdogan's (and the U.S.
neocon Brookings Institute's) long desired jihadi "safe
haven"/"no fly zone" for al-Qaeda & friends to operate and
stage from with impunity from Russian and Syrian airstrikes.
Al-Bab is a
"backdoor" on key routes south to Aleppo from the Turkish border.
Turkish supplies
for the Islamic Army of Conquest offensives in South Aleppo and Latakia: arms,
ammo, supplies, even artillery, tanks have been reported as flowing like water
over the Turkish border
Turkey is
obviously not coordinating its incursion with the Syrian government which
condemns it as a violation of its sovereignty. The Kremlin's impotent calls for
Turkey to coordinate with Damascus while waving the old Geneva communique have
been completely ignored. Unfortunately there is little they can do at this
point without engaging in a full scale war with Turkey and the U.S. in Syria.
Something the Kremlin lacks the will to do. Turkey/U.S. intend that their
proxies take Aleppo as leverage in settlement negotiations to force Assad to
step down, or partition if that fails.
Both the Turkish
and FSA flags, (not the Syrian flag), were raised over "liberated"
Jarablus
Securing the
Jarablus corridor from a westward YPG advance in attempts to link their
"cantons" east and west along the Turkish border prevents supply
lines to "Syrian rebels" from Turkey from being cut. That's why
Turkey has taken action here while however grudgingly accepting Kurdish control
over large stretches of Syrian-Turkish border everywhere else without taking
action. The ratlines to the "rebels" are Turkey's primary concern
here. Kurds are an important but demonstratively second concern.
Turkey's
incursion was backed by US air-cover, drones, and embedded special forces per
the WSJ. These were there largely to prevent Russia and Syria from even
thinking about taking action against the invading forces.
Turkey is moving
into Syria not just with its own military, but with thousands of "rebel
opposition groups" including US-backed FSA brigades allied with
AlQaeda/Nusra/Sham and the child head-chopping al-Zinki who are reported to
form the vanguard. Syrian territory is outright being turned over to them by
the Turkish military, simply exchanging control from one group of terrorist
jihadis (ISIS) to others who are more media acceptable and more direct proxies
of the Erdogan regime, the U.S., Saudi Arabia and Qatar.
That said, ISIS
has not resisted the Turkish advance at all - simply "melting away"
(or exchanging one set of uniforms for another?). No stay-behinds, no suicide
bombers, no IEDS, nothing. No fighting. Zero casualties. Turkish and
"Syrian rebel" forces literally strolled in to Jarablus taking
selfies and posing for cameras. Tag-team turnover.
The Kurdish
YPG/SDF have proven that they have become nothing but lickspittle currs for the
U.S., despite being betrayed, dutifully responding to the leash and withdrawing
from Manbij which they bled for, and all positions east of the Euphrates on
Biden's orders as he staged a press conference in Ankara with Erdogan. They
have served their part in providing another layer of pretext for Turkey to
invade Syria.
Layers of Pretext
for Turkish invasion of Syria:
-
"Liberating" Jarablus from ISIS to give it to al-Qaeda
- Giving Jarablus
to al-Qaeda to deny it to Kurds
- Safe/No Fly
Zone for al-Qaeda
- Neocon Plan B -
Partition of Syria (if necessary)
The question has
been raised about Russia's and Syria's supposedly "muted response" to
all this and that their existing protestations (linked below) to the contrary
are actually "lies" and that both are somehow in agreement and
collusion with everything Erdogan is doing above in some kind of grand Eurasian
alliance conspiracy and agreement to end the conflict in Syria ...
Right? This
theory is really too absurd and far-fetched wishful thinking to warrant
addressing. See Moscow: Russian Foreign Ministry Expresses Concern About
Turkish Operation in Syria", Damascus: Syria condemns Turkey’s breach of
Syria’s sovereignty in Jarablos
What kind of response
do you expect? Do you think Russia would shoot U.S. and Turkish planes out of
the sky and bomb Turkish forces in Syria? The Turkish coup upheaval aside, the
Turkish military is still large enough several times over to crush the small
Russian military taskforce in Syria. To say nothing of where things would go
from there in a war with NATO.
What did Russia
do when U.S., UK, France etc quietly put their own special forces and troops on
the ground in Syria over the last year? What was the Kremlin's response just
days ago when the U.S. declared a no fly zone over their SDF proxies attacking
Syrian government forces and threatened to shoot down Russian jets?
Nothing. They did
nothing then just like their "muted" objections now. Not because they
want it to happen or are "in on it" but because there is nothing they
can do about it short of openly attacking and going to war with the U.S. and
Turkey (i.e. NATO) which the Kremlin is NOT willing to do for Syria.
They are likewise
not going to make threats or demands about violations of Syria's sovereignty
that they will not and cannot back up. Such bluster is not their style. It
achieves nothing. They will continue to play the long game in Syria and hope
events still turn their way without direct military confrontation with the U.S.
and Turkey. They continue to push for a negotiated settlement on terms
favorable to Damascus. Everyone is still playing the charade that they are all
in the conflict in Syria to fight terrorists when we all know that it is just a
front and the symptom for regime change. That game goes on, just now with
Turkey upping the ante.
The U.S. and
Turkey want a negotiated settlement too - they are just not willing to accept
the current status of forces and intend to escalate and create new facts on the
ground, primarily in and around Aleppo, that they hope will force Russia to
accept that "Assad Must Go!" ensuring a settlement more favorable to
them.
Erdogan has
actually always been much louder and more insistent in demanding a "safe haven"/"no
fly zone" for the proxies over the Jarablus corridor than the US. Erdogan
pushed for it several times, and Obama refused, apparently infuriating his own
State Department, CIA, and foreign policy elite in the process. Now Erdogan's
tantrums and witch-hunt over the lack of Western support during the attempted
Kemalist military coup, have blackmailed Obama into acceding to this, in order
to restore relations.
Overall, however
the US has put the hegemon's name, power, and prestige on the line for "Assad
Must Go!" They simply cannot accept anything less than regime change. In
the end, particularly after Clinton comes to power in the U.S. early next year
and escalates the situation further than Obama has been willing as he tries to
run out the clock, I am afraid that Russia will simply throw up their hands and
walk away with whatever they can still get - not willing to go to World War III
over Syria. A gambit the U.S. has no such reservations about. And that is the
Kremlin's weakness, and why red line after red line of their's keeps getting
crossed closer and closer to Russia's borders itself.
When Russia
itself is at last on the line and in the targets, it may not have any friends
left willing to stand by it.
[Note by b:
I can not decide
which side has the upper hand. The "west" or Russia and its allies.
Mark's well thought out version above may be spot on. But little birds tell me
that all is going along a common Russian-Turkish plan to which the U.S had to
acquiesce. Russia's potential threat to Turkey, should it try to cheat, is
seriously arming the PKK Kurds. Remember
the anti-armor missiles and that one MANPAD they recently used? Those were
warnings. Both versions make sense in their own. But can both be right?]
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