Continuando con las notas relativas a la estrategia real del Imperio, reproducimos este artículo de Mikhail Leontyev aparecido hoy en Red Voltaire. El mapa de arriba procede del libro The Pentagon's New Map: War and Peace in the Twenty-First Century, y fue publicado en 2004 por Thomas P.M. Barnett. Tiene mucho que ver con lo que sigue a continuación:
Título: The US Grand Strategy
Epígrafe: Mikhail Leontiev devoted his column on the first Russian television channel to Thomas Barnett’s theory. What appeared to be an intellectual lucubration in 2001 is currently being realized. Everyone must now rethink their vision of the wars of the past sixteen years.
Texto: Trump delivered a speech at the UN General Assembly. As Saltykov-Shchedrin [1] pointed out once: "Kind folk awaited bloodshed and massacres from him, instead, he ate a doughnut."
"Strong sovereign nations allow citizens to flourish in the fullness of life provided for by God. We in America do not seek to impose our way of life on anyone. And we want ours to be so brilliant as to serve to the rest as an example," said US President Donald Trump.
Hooray! He is giving a slack. In the past he would have aspired to impose a resplendent image to follow! But now he has given up all the aspiring. At the same time, note, to erase from the face of the Earth and to overthrow is still in fashion. Trump threatens to destroy North Korea, Iran, overthrow the regime in Venezuela ... But to try to impose an image nowadays is a big no-no.
"The war should not be conducted against individual states with a mobile political situation, but against regions of the world, because those states are coded in this program of destruction. Of course, they will start from one country or another, then the infection will spread until everything collapses, as we can see today in the example of the Middle East. Of course, this is a policy, the implementation of which began after September 11, 2001, and we failed to grasp the significance of the events of September 11. None of the wars that have been fought since then has been concluded", said French political scientist, journalist (Syria, Damascus) Thierry Meyssan.
And it is true. For 15 years, none of the wars came to an end! Thierry Meyssan, a well-known conspiracy theories specialist, scholar and Orientalist, claims that we did not notice a radical change in the American strategy since the September the 11th.
"Neo-imperialism of the United States does not intend to offer anything for those states that are among the stable, nor for those that are a source of natural resources. Stable states will have access to resources, and the sources of natural resources will be completely destroyed, plunged into chaos", continues Thierry Meyssan.
Here is this map from Hell [véase el mapa que encabeza este post], to which Meyssan refers, from the book of geostrategist and publicist Professor Barnett, who served as an assistant to Admiral Cerbowski, who directed the Department of Transformation of the Armed Forces at the Pentagon. Virtually all of Africa, Central and Latin America, except Brazil and Argentina, fall into the zone of "non-integrable states" doomed to chaos.Then, naturally, the entire Middle East with Turkey, the Persian Gulf, Iran and Pakistan, all Middle and South-east Asia and all The Balkans, except Greece. At the same time, Russia, India and China are prudently surgically removed out of the "nightmare zone".
"The power of Leviathan must be released only occasionally. But here’s what you can promise the American people, our citizens, and the whole world. If we release this Leviathan, then we promise, we guarantee that immediately, immediately afterwards we will install the functional governance. You should not plan a war if you do not expect to find peace," states US political analyst Thomas Barnett.
And they will inherit the Kingdom! ... For the slow-witted: the functional governance is just an administration of occupational forces. American ones. For those in the know: what kind of American administration can be offered for "non-integrable territories"? The key is in the name-Non-integrable. You have been told! And why on Earth anyone would want to create a "perfect image"for them? Let them wallow in squalor.
Let me quote Meyssan once again: none of the wars that started after September 11 is over.
Nota: [1] Mikhail Saltykov-Shchedrin (1826-1889) was a major Russian satirist.
Día eleccionario en varias partes del mundo. En el Kurdistán iraquí se define un plebiscito de autodeterminación, evento repudiado por casi todos excepto algunos kurdos. En Alemania ganaría nuevamente Merkel; lo único a definir es con quién va a terminar haciendo alianza para formar gobierno. Dale que va. Así lo cuenta el diario español Público.es:
Título: Los kurdos de Irak se preparan para votar en un histórico referéndum de independencia
Subtítulo: El Kurdistan iraquí celebra este lunes una consulta de autodeterminación, no vinculante pero que iniciaría el proceso secesionista, pese a la férrea oposición del Gobierno de Irak y de casi toda la comunidad internacional.
Texto: Todavía a mediados de esta semana el presidente kurdo, Masud Barzani, aventuraba un último llamiento al Gobierno de Irak: ofrézcannos una alternativa y lo cancelamos todo. Bagdad, sin embargo, no ha recogido el guante, y el lunes los kurdos iraquíes están llamados a las urnas para pronunciarse en un histórico referéndum de independencia, cuyo resultado más que probable será un sí rotundo a la creación de un Estado propio.
"No sé si es el buen momento, pero muchos sentimos que es ahora o nunca", afirma convencido Munip, joven empleado del museo de tapices de Erbil, haciéndose eco de la consigna lanzada por Barzani. El pasado abril, el presidente del KRG (el Gobierno Regional kurdo) echó un órdago al Ejecutivo federal y a buena parte de la comunidad internacional al anunciar esta consulta no vinculante pero con la que se iniciaría el proceso secesionista.
En la capital del Kurdistán iraquí los carteles a favor del 'sí' empapelan calles y vehículos, y los mítines llenan estadios. Pero a pesar del entusiasmo general de la población, las incógnitas sobre las condiciones en que se celebrará el plebiscito -principalmente si tendrá lugar en zonas en disputa con el gobierno central, como Kirkuk y Sinyar-, se multiplican en las horas previas a la votación, al igual que las alarmas sobre sus consecuencias a nivel regional.
Las instituciones federales se oponen de plano a la consulta, incluido el Tribunal Supremo de Irak, que ha ordenado su suspensión, y la mayoría de actores regionales e internacionales, incluidos Estados Unidos, la Unión Europea y Rusia, se han pronunciado en contra con mayor o menor aplomo. El viernes, los ministros de Exteriores de Irak, Turquía e Irán (los dos últimos, principales socios económicos de Erbil) emitieron un comunicado conjunto afirmando que tomarían "medidas de forma coordinada" para evitar la celebración del referéndum.
"Tras la I Guerra Mundial no era un buen momento, con la Guerra Fría no era posible... ¿Y ahora tampoco? ¿Entonces cuándo? Éste es un momento perfecto"
Aunque en última instancia solo Israel apoya abiertamente la consulta, el contexto de hostilidad generalizada no amilana al gobierno: "Tras la I Guerra Mundial no era un buen momento, con la Guerra Fría no era posible... ¿Y ahora tampoco? ¿Entonces cuándo? Déjeme decirle algo: con el cambio actual en la configuración geopolítica de la zona, este es un momento perfecto", asegura a Público Ari Mersin, peshmerga diputado del KDP y presidente de la Comisión de Defensa del parlamento kurdo. "Primero enseñaremos a Bagdad el papel que muestra lo que nuestro pueblo quiere y después nos sentaremos a negociar en una posición de fuerza con Teherán, Ankara, Rusia, China, la UE, Estados Unidos... En un año máximo podremos llamarnos República Democrática del Kurdistán", afirma.
Una país kurdo que es independiente de facto
La autodeterminación es una aspiración histórica del pueblo kurdo y una de las grandes cuestiones que quedaron por resolver en Oriente Medio tras la Primera Guerra Mundial, cuando la caída del Imperio Otomano y su reparto entre las principales potencias dejó a la población kurda dividida entre cuatro Estados: Turquía, Irak, Irán y Siria.
En el caso del Kurdistán iraquí, si bien aún no es independiente sobre el papel, en muchos sentidos ya es un país de facto. Goza de autonomía desde la primera Guerra del Golfo en 1991, cuando Washington creó una zona de exclusión aérea en el noroeste de Irak; con la invasión estadounidense en 2003, la caída de Sadam Husein y la nueva Constitución de 2005, obtuvo el estatuto autónomo de forma oficial.
Tras años de salvaje represión y arabización por parte del régimen baasista en esta región, hoy su población más joven habla a duras penas el árabe, a diferencia de Turquía, Siria e Irán, donde la asimilación forzada hace que la población kurda domine la lengua oficial. Frente al resto del caótico y empobrecido Irak, asolado por 14 años de guerra, en Erbil o Suleimania las calles están limpias, los jardines, verdes y cuidados, y en sus amplias avenidas se suceden modernos centros comerciales y hoteles de cinco estrellas. En los últimos años, el maná petrolero ha permitido un desarrollo rápido y la liberalización de la economía ha atraído numerosas inversiones extranjeras.
La lucha contra el Estado Islámico ha hecho mella en las arcas públicas y los funcionarios han visto drásticamente recortados sus salarios
Pero pese a la aparente bonanza económica, en la actualidad la zona se encuentra inmersa en una profunda crisis: la lucha contra el Estado Islámico ha hecho mella en las arcas públicas y desde 2014, los funcionarios, en torno a 1,4 millones, han visto drásticamente recortados sus salarios por la cancelación de transferencias del Gobierno central, que cerró el grifo al KRG cuando este decidió empezar a exportar el petróleo de su territorio por su cuenta.
Los recursos energéticos de la región –se estima que cuenta con unas reservas de 45.000 millones de barriles de petróleo y más de 5,6 billones de metros cúbicos de gas–, sostienen un modelo apenas diversificado y Kurdistán, que un día fue el granero de Irak, hoy importa casi la totalidad de sus productos de consumo, lo que lo hace extremadamente dependiente de sus vecinos.
En el plano político, la imagen de relativa estabilidad enmascara un régimen clientelar donde la corrupción y el nepotismo campan a sus anchas y el pastel económico se reparte entre dos familias: el clan de los Barzani y el de los Talabani, al frente del otro gran partido, la Unión Patriótica del Kurdistán (PUK).
***
Título: Alemania vota bajo el temor del auge de la ultraderecha
Subtítulo: Los sondeos auguran que el partido ultraderechista Alternativa para Alemania (AfD) entrará el Bundestag como tercera fuerza parlamentaria con alrededor del 11 % de los votos.
Texto: Los colegios electorales en Alemania abrieron este domingo a las 6:00 GMT para unos comicios generales en los que 61,5 millones electores están llamados a votar para elegir a sus representantes en el Parlamento y su futuro Gobierno.
Los colegios cerraran sus puertas a las 18.00 (16.00 GMT) e inmediatamente después se conocerán los primeros sondeos a pie de urna.
Las últimas encuestas dan una clara ventaja a la Unión Cristianodemócrata (CDU) de la canciller Angela Merkel que se sitúa cerca de 14 puntos por encima del Partido Socialdemócrata (SPD), liderado por el expresidente del Parlamento Europeo Martin Schulz.
Además, los sondeos auguran que el partido ultraderechista Alternativa para Alemania (AfD) se estrenará en el Bundestag como tercera fuerza parlamentaria, con alrededor del 11 % de los votos.
Sólo cinco partidos de los 42 que presentan candidatos tuvieron escaños en el Bundestag (Cámara Baja) en la legislatura que acaba: la Unión Cristianodemócrata (CDU) de Merkel, su hermanada Unión Socialcristiana (CSU) de Baviera, el Partido Socialdemócrata (SPD), La Izquierda y Los Verdes.
Además de la entrada de AfD, los sondeos vaticinan el regreso a la cámara de los liberales del FDP.
Si se cumplen los pronósticos de las encuestas Merkel tendrá que volver a formar coalición para gobernar y probablemente estará ante la alternativa de continuar con la gran coalición con el Partido Socialdemócrata (SPD) o formar una alianza tripartita por el FDP, considerado como el socio natural de la CDU, y Los Verdes.
Esa coalición tripartita sería algo inédito a nivel federal pero a nivel regional existe actualmente en el estado federado de Schleswig-Holstein (norte de Alemania).
Se espera que las negociaciones para formar el próximo gobierno ya que hay obstáculos tanto para una continuación de la gran coalición como para la formación de una alianza tripartita.
Los dos grandes partidos han señalado durante la campaña que su intención no es continuar con la gran coalición, fórmula que suele considerarse como un último recurso si otras alianzas no son viables.
Además, al SPD no le resultaría fácil volver a convencer a sus bases de la conveniencia de continuar como socios minoritarios en un gobierno presidido por Merkel.
De otro lado, ante todo en el FDP hay resistencias a entrar a formar parte de un gobierno en el que también estén Los Verdes.
En Berlín, Duisburgo, Halle y Bremen, por otra parte, se celebraran simultáneamente con las elecciones referendos sobre temas de carácter local o regional.
En Berlín los electores son invitados, por una iniciativa popular que recogió suficientes firmas para forzar la convocatoria de la consulta, a instar al gobierno de la ciudad-estado a abandonar los planes de cierre del aeropuerto de Tegel.
En Bremen los ciudadanos tendrá que decidir sobre una ampliación de la legislatura del parlamento regional de cuatro a cinco años.
En Duisburgo los iniciadores del referendo piden impedir la construcción de una gran tienda de rebajas mientras que en Halle los ciudadanos con consultados sobre la mudanza de la administración municipal a un edificio actualmente vacío que debe ser renovado.
La guerra más larga emprendida por el Imperio en toda su historia no ha sido contra ninguna de las grandes potencias. Ha sido contra Afghanistán, uno de los países más pobres del mundo. Los EEUU están en Afghanistán desde 2001. ¿Por qué? Para entenderlo se necesita mirar un mapa: lo que importa son los vecinos de ese país: Irán, China y, más al norte, Rusia. La nota que sigue es de Caleb Maupin para el sitio web New Eastern Outlook:
Título: An Empire of Chaos: The Real Reason the US is in Afghanistan
Texto: Donald Trump is sending more troops to Afghanistan, continuing the USA's longest war. CEO Michael Silver, of the American Elements corporation, wrote a short op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, urging for the extraction of the country's mineral resources. Afghanistan remains unstable. Many questions must be asked. The one on many minds is "Why is the USA in Afghanistan?"
Terrorism? Minerals? Or Something Else?
The USA has been occupying Afghanistan since 2001. Why? Both supporters and opponents of US Afghan policy give murky answers. Supporters of US efforts say they are in the country to fight terrorism and help the country rebuild and move toward democracy. Opponents of the occupation say the USA is seeking to control its rare minerals such as neodymium, indium, gallium, and lanthanum which are essential in making computer chips.
These answers are insufficient. As for terrorism, since 2001, the presence and strength of terrorist groups in Afghanistan has vastly increased. Al-Queda, ISIS, various warlords, Jundallah, and many terrorist groups, most of which had minimal presence under the Taliban government, are now all across the country. Even the Taliban itself, the government the USA toppled in the 2001 invasion, has not vanished, and still controls a large portion of the country. If the USA is in Afghanistan to fight terrorism, its efforts have not only completely failed, and but had the opposite of their intended affect.
So, is it all about the minerals? Is the USA seeking to get control of these vital rare earth elements which are key in making modern computer chips? Well, perhaps this is a factor for seeking to control the country, but its worth noting that in the entire 16 years of the occupation, the USA and its allied Afghan government have never moved forward with any plan for mineral extraction. Michael Silver, the CEO of American Elements wrote an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal on August 30th, essentially begging the US government to go ahead and "help Afghans exploit their mineral riches."
If the occupation of the country were motivated purely out of desire to plunder the rare earth minerals, wouldn't it have been done by now? 16 years is a long time to put off something, if indeed, it is the entire basis of the military operations. It is also unlikely that a CEO would publicly beg the President to do something, if it was secretly the entire basis for the operation.
In fact, talk of Afghanistan's mineral resources and the untapped trillions to be made from them, didn't show up in the media until 2010, nine years after the US invaded and toppled the Taliban. It was only long after the invasion that geologists were able to determine that such minerals were even in the country.
The rare earth minerals and the potential of extracting them, could certainly serve as an incentive for the continued occupation, but are not the primary cause. Neither is fighting terrorism.
A Strategic Epicenter for Chaos
A recent article in the New York Times noted the funeral of two CIA officers who had been killed in Afghanistan as the CIA has been moving "to the front lines." According to the New York Times, the two CIA operatives had "advised a small army of Afghan militants," essentially the CIA men were embedded into non-governmental armed groups. According to the NYT piece, this strategy had been used by the Obama administration "who embraced covert operations because of their small footprint and deniability." The article also noted that the factions covertly directed and armed by the CIA "were at times accused by Afghan officials and others as a law unto themselves, running roughshod over civilians and killing innocents."
While press reports give the impression that the USA is working only with the internationally recognized Afghan government to stabilize the country, the New York Times seems to point out the contrary. So, the question must be asked, as the country remains a mess of violence, with terrorists, drug cartels, and warlords slaughtering each other, which of the many armed groups have CIA agents directing them? The answer cannot be found in the New York Times article, and most likely is not public information. It should seem obvious, however, that covertly directing non-government militias of Afghans to kill other Afghans, is not a strategy for stabilizing a country.
In the analysis of this writer, the US occupation of Afghanistan is really about one thing: spreading chaos and antagonizing the surrounding countries.
But why would the USA want to keep Afghanistan unstable?
Look at a map. Afghanistan is located in central Asia. It is an impoverished, underdeveloped country that is landlocked. It borders the three top opponents of US power on the global stage, Russia, China, and Iran. Since 2001, not only has Afghanistan been a mess of terrorism, drug trafficking, and societal chaos, but this chaos has spilled over into the three neighboring countries.
Menacing The Russians
US operations in Afghanistan have almost always been related to Russia. At the time of the Russian Revolution, Central Asia was dominated by the British Empire. The British had largely de-forested Afghanistan, and had already introduced the scourge of heroin. The Bolsheviks happily embraced the government of Habbibula Khan, the Emir of Afghanistan who had stood up to the British, and kept the country neutral in the First World War. In 1919 the Afghan ambassador told Lenin "I proffer you a friendly hand and hope that you will help the whole of the East to free itself from the yoke of European imperialism."
The Soviet Union saw bringing stability and development to Central Asia as a way to secure itself. In 1920, the Soviet Union famously sponsored the "Baku Conference" or the "Congress of the Peoples of the East" to offer their support to people in Central Asia and the Middle East who sought to break free from Western domination.
After Afghanistan's 1978 Saur Revolution, the Soviet Union immediately began pouring in aid. The Soviet Union sent soldiers into the Afghan countryside to help establish farms. Literacy campaigns were conducted as well, with Soviet volunteers teaching impoverished Afghans how to read. Democratic Youth Leagues worked to restore the forests, in the hopes that Afghanistan's unique timber could be exported on the world market.
The Democratic Republic of Afghanistan, which existed from 1978 to 1992 sought to lift the country from poverty with Soviet assistance. Democratic Afghanistan established universities, built hospitals, and tried to modernize the country. Despite their Marxist-Leninist ideology, the ruling Peoples Democratic Party had no illusions that Afghanistan could become a socialist country at that time. They felt it was too poor. Their goal was simply to raise the standard of living with Soviet assistance.
Brzezinski bragged in an interview that by establishing an Islamist insurgency against the Democratic government, with the help of a young Saudi named Osama Bin Laden, he had "given the USSR its Vietnam." The CIA worked with the Pakistani secret police to enable terrorists in Afghanistan to cultivate heroin.
The CIA strategy of Islamic terrorism and heroin in Afghanistan mirrored policy in Chechnya, where the USA and Saudi Arabia had already been supporting Islamic extremists who were involved in selling heroin and committing acts of terrorism intended to harm the Soviet government.
While the Taliban was internationally recognized for its efforts to destroy poppy fields and exterminate traffickers, the 2001 invasion marked a key moment for restoring Afghanistan's position as the world's supplier of heroin. Poppy fields went up like wildfire, and cheap heroin flooded the world market.
Since the US invaded in 2001, heroin has grown all across Afghanistan. Huge amounts of it are flowing into Russia. Furthermore, the terrorist groups that have long waged a campaign of violence in Chechnya, have cooperated with the terrorists in Afghanistan. Russian-aligned governments in Central Asia face a growing problem of Wahabbi extremism.
Keeping Afghanistan unstable is certainly causing lots of problems for Russia.
Drugs and Terrorism Against Iran
Iran's revolutionary guards are constantly working to stop narcotics from flowing over from the Afghan border. The poppy fields of Afghanistan, now booming and flooding the world drug market since the Taliban was toppled, have destroyed the lives of literally millions of Iranians. A report in 2006 estimated that 8% of adults in Iran are addicted to drugs. Another report suggested that 130,000 Iranians become addicted to drugs every year.
The majority of the people in Iran are youth, born after the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Heroin from Afghanistan is a mechanism used to feed into the cynicism and political confusion of this new generation that did not see Khomeni's rise. The USA works to manipulate the alienation and confusion of young Iranians, much as it did with the artistic and intellectual circles in Eastern Europe in order to foment color revolutions during the late 1980s and early 1990s. The devastation of drugs accompanies satellite TV broadcasts, anti-government movies, and numerous efforts to confuse, demoralize, and manipulate the generation that will soon inherit the helm of Iran's anti-capitalist government.
Furthermore, Afghanistan borders a region of Iran that has a history of religious differences with the Islamic Republic. The clerics who lead the Iranian government are Shia Muslims, and while Sunnis are allowed to practice their faith, they are not permitted to establish independent Mosques that could foment unrest or work to discredit the Supreme Leader.
Jundallah, a Sunni terrorist organization based in Afghanistan, has established as its mission; the overthrow of the Shia government in Iran. Jundallah works on the Afghan border, and has bombed and killed people across Iran. It is also involved in the heroin trade. In 2014, it was revealed that a Port Authority Police Officer from the United States had been working inside the Jundallah terrorist group, crossing the border into Iran from Afghanistan.
Spreading Chaos into China
The 20th century in China has largely been a story of struggling to break free from foreign domination, drug addiction, and poverty, and restore itself as global power. The first US military intervention in China, in 1900, was against the Boxer Rebellion, a nationalist uprising that lynched drug dealers and sought to promote traditional Chinese culture. Prior to that, the British had waged two "Opium Wars" in which they militarily forced China not to erect tariffs or block the importation of narcotics.
The Chinese government works relentlessly to make sure that heroin is never imported into the country. The majority of those who receive the death penalty in China are somehow related to drug smuggling.
China's historically Islamic region, Xianjing, has been the site of anti-government terrorism in recent decades. Not surprisingly, this region also borders Afghanistan. Members of China's Islamic Uiygir minority have sworn allegiance to ISIS and gone to Syria to fight the Baathist government.
Chinese leaders have expressed deep concern about their Afghan border, and the dangers associated with Afghanistan.
China, Russia, Iran: Stable Governments Facing Attack
Why does the US continue to target Iran, Russia, and China? Is it because they are unstable? No. It is because they are stable.
The Islamic Revolution of Iran involved a mass uprising of the people. The government established in 1979 has nationalized Iran's oil resources and used the proceeds to develop the country, and build up the domestic economy. While the bordering countries of Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan are quite dangerous, since the end of the war with Iraq, Iran has been one of the safest countries in the region. Life expectancy has increased. The economy is centrally planned.
Since 1949, China has brought 700 million people out of poverty. It has responded to terrorism and instability in the Autonomous Regions of Xianjing and Tibet by pouring in investment and infrastructure, providing the people with economic opportunity. Before the 1949 revolution, when Republicans said the USA "lost China," it was a very unstable place. Now it is far more stable than ever before, and the second largest economy in the world.
Russia recovered from the financial and humanitarian disaster following the collapse of the USSR. Starting in 2000 with the rise of Putin, Gazprom and Rosneft, state controlled natural gas and oil companies, have been used to centralize and plan the economy.
China's Alternative Strategy
These three Eurasian countries serve as bastions of stability, and more than that, they are competitors with Wall Street. Russia sells oil and natural gas on the international markets. Every barrel of oil sold by Russia, is a barrel of oil that could have been sold by a US or British oil company. Iran is also an oil exporter, and it has recently joined the natural gas trade.
While China does not have very much domestic oil, it is starting to innovate natural gas extraction, and it produces steel, copper, and aluminum more than any other country on earth. Cell phones produced by Huwai, the state controlled telecommunications manufacturer, are sold across the world. A stable China is also a competitor.
Michael Silver wrote "The Chinese aren't evil, they are merely smart" in his op-ed, begging the Trump administration to extract Afghan minerals. As the USA sends in anonymous CIA operatives to work inside non-government militias, and conducts drone strikes that often kill civilians, China indeed has a completely different strategy for Afghanistan.
While China has not conducted any drone strikes in Afghanistan, many voices around the world are deeply impressed with its medical aid programs. China's Red Cross Society has recently opened up its "Belt and Road Fraternity Fund" and is using the money to provide desperately needed surgeries to Afghan children under the age of 14.
Over 100 children have already traveled over the border in order to be treated in hospitals in the Xianjing Medical University in the Chinese city of Urumqi. China has also worked with the Pakistan Red Crescent Society to establish similar programs to help Afghans by providing much needed medical care.
China and Iran have laid out a plan for Afghanistan called "Trade and Transport" at the United Nations. They have called for railway to built across Afghanistan in order to give the country port access. The hope is that textile factories and other industries can be established in Afghanistan, providing an alternative to terrorism and drug cartels.
It is very possible that Michael Silver's pleas of the Trump administration, regarding the rare earth elements, will be ignored. He is correct that "exploiting" the mineral resources may help to stabilize the country, but the forces that push the USA to continue occupying Afghanistan, at great expense, seem to have other goals.
La imagen de arriba corresponde a una captura de satélite en el momento en que el ojo del huracán María se encontraba sobre el municipio de Caguas, en Puerto Rico. Así cuenta su paso el diario portorriqueño El Nuevo Día:
Título: Los datos más relevantes del huracán María
Subtítulo: El ciclón pasó por la isla el pasado miércoles causando devastación
Texto: A continuación te revelamos importantes datos numéricos de este fenómeno natural:
- El ojo del huracán María tocó tierra a las 6:15 a.m. por Yabucoa con vientos de 155 millas por hora.
- La presión de este sistema atmosférico al arribar a tierra era de 917 milibares.
- El ciclón solo disminuyó en 10 millas por hora la velocidad de sus vientos al hacer contacto con la Cordillera Central. Además, este efecto de la montaña provocó que “el ojo se cubriera con nubosidad” y perdiera definición.
- María salió en horas del mediodía del miércoles por la zona del barrio Islote, entre Arecibo y Barceloneta.
- María entró y salió de Puerto Rico como un huracán categoría 4. Tenía vientos de 145 millas por hora.
- El huracán dejó una acumulación de hasta 40 pulgadas de lluvia sobre la isla.
- La mayor acumulación de agua registrada fue de 37.9 pulgadas en el municipio de Caguas.
- En Villalba se registraron 27.82 pulgadas de lluvia y en Canóvanas 23.89.
- El menor registro de lluvia en la isla ocurrió en Naguabo con 6.31 pulgadas de lluvia.
- La precipitación provocada por el huracán llevó al Monitor de Sequía de los Estados Unidos a sacar a la isla del listado de áreas con sequía en los Estados Unidos.
- Los registros de vientos más fuertes obtenidos por las estaciones del Servicio Nacional de Meteorología fueron en Culebra, con una ráfaga de 113 millas por hora, y en Arecibo, con una ráfaga de 112 millas por hora.
- La lluvia reportada provocó que el Acuífero del Sur saliera de la condición crítica en la que se encontraba. Su pozo en peor estado, en el Aguirre en Salinas, aumentó a 20.62 pies. Ahora el sistema se encuentra en nivel de “observación”. Los otros tres pozos principales están en “condición óptima”, según el Servicio Geológico de los Estados Unidos.
- La mayoría de los embalses utilizados para extraer agua potable están en su nivel óptimo. Solo el embalse Toa Baja está en nivel de observación.
El gobierno español encarceló a catorce funcionarios catalanes encargados de llevar a cabo el referéndum del próximo 1 de Octubre sobre la independencia de esa región. Algunos de ellos, como el Secretario General de Economía, Josep María Jové, han sido acusados de sedición. Se suceden las protestas, no sólo en Barcelona sino en varias regiones de España. No parece haber salida política. Así lo cuenta el siguiente editorial del diario La Vanguardia:
Título: Llamamiento a la serenidad
Texto: La economía de la Generalitat, intervenida. Más de una docena de altos cargos y funcionarios de la Administración catalana, detenidos por orden del juez. Cuarenta y un registros en oficinas públicas, despachos privados y domicilios. La logística del referéndum del 1 de octubre, muy desbaratada. Inmediatas manifestaciones de protesta en el centro de Barcelona. Tensión, mucha tensión en todos los estratos de la sociedad. Tres partidos catalanes abandonando el hemiciclo del Congreso de los Diputados, en señal de protesta. Actos de apoyo a las instituciones catalanas en Madrid, Valencia y otras ciudades españolas. El Gobierno –que dice cumplir con su deber–, en minoría en el Congreso de los Diputados. Fuerte presión sobre el Partido Socialista. El Partido Nacionalista Vasco, fuerza imprescindible para la aprobación de los presupuestos generales del Estado, confirma su asistencia a una asamblea de parlamentarios favorables al soberanismo. España en todos los noticiarios del mundo, con una imagen poco grata para un país europeo: políticos detenidos, papeletas de votación secuestradas. Incertidumbre ante las jornadas que se avecinan. Este es el paisaje que se podía haber evitado. Estamos ante una crisis de Estado.
Esta grave situación se podía haber evitado. Lo venimos advirtiendo, al menos, desde el 2015. Había caminos para sortearla. La actual situación se podía haber evitado atendiendo al principio de realidad. Los partidos soberanistas debían haber admitido que en las elecciones al Parlament de Catalunya de septiembre del 2015 no superaron el plebiscito que ellos mismos habían planteado. El independentismo no superó el 50% de los votos. No consiguió una mayoría social suficiente para una aceleración histórica. No consiguió la mitad más uno de los votos, pero quedó muy cerca. A lomos de su orgullo –y de sus respectivos cálculos de partido–, Artur Mas y Oriol Junqueras no quisieron admitir la realidad por miedo a la desmovilización y por temor a aparecer como perdedores ante el Gobierno español, que no les ofrecía ninguna alternativa. Optaron entonces por la fuga hacia delante y quedaron en manos de la CUP, previo sacrificio de Mas, que, mal aconsejado, no se atrevió a convocar nuevas elecciones. Un joven partido de extrema izquierda con el ocho por ciento de los votos se convertía así en dueño de la dinámica política catalana, sin tan siquiera esperarlo. Una situación insólita. Insólita pero real.
El Gobierno español también leyó mal septiembre del 2015. El fracaso del plebiscito fue interpretado como un desmayo del soberanismo, sin calibrar correctamente la profundidad de la protesta social y política en Catalunya, expresada con toda rotundidad desde el 2012. Cuando el 48% de los votantes de una sociedad expresa su adhesión a programas de ruptura hay que preocuparse. Y hay que preocuparse todavía más si ese 48% reúne a muchos votantes jóvenes y a los sectores más dinámicos de las clases medias. En septiembre del 2015, Mariano Rajoy se hallaba en vísperas de unas elecciones generales muy complicadas. Tenía poco margen para moverse y seguramente creyó que la tensión con los soberanistas catalanes podía contribuir a la cohesión del electorado conservador español en un momento de fuerte desgaste, como consecuencia de la crisis económica. Creemos que el Partido Popular se ha convertido en adicto de un peligroso estimulante: la tensión catalana. La tensión catalana ayuda a cohesionar a su electorado y, llevada al extremo, desbarata a su principal adversario, el Partido Socialista. El incentivo es poderoso, pero toda espiral de la tensión acaba estallando. Después de muchos años de acumulación de tensiones, ese momento crítico ha llegado. ¿A quién beneficia ahora?
Poco antes del verano, advertíamos que los actuales gobernantes catalanes podían acabar llevando el autogobierno de Catalunya contra las rocas. Desgraciadamente así está ocurriendo, después de las nefastas sesiones parlamentarias del 6 y 7 de septiembre, en las que la institucionalidad catalana fue violentada y herida. Fue un mal paso. Suele serlo siempre que se pierde el respeto a la ley. Los dirigentes soberanistas inteligentes lo saben. Y algunos se atreven a reconocerlo. La Generalitat se halla intervenida, sin que se haya activado el artículo 155 de la Constitución. Decenas de dirigentes políticos y de altos funcionarios catalanes van a ser procesados. Los pleitos serán interminables. No sabemos qué pasará en las próximas semanas, pero sí podemos intuir que la plena restitución del autogobierno y el indulto de los inhabilitados se convertirán en argumentos centrales en los próximos meses. Se podía haber evitado.
Desde hace cinco años venimos criticando el quietismo del Gobierno español. Mariano Rajoy reiteró ayer que su principal obligación es velar por el cumplimiento de la ley y evitar la celebración de un referéndum de autodeterminación que choca frontalmente con la Constitución. Nunca discutiremos que el deber del Gobierno –de cualquier Gobierno– es hacer cumplir la ley. Ocurre, sin embargo, que la mejor manera de hacer cumplir la ley es propiciar el acuerdo, en caso de conflicto social grave. Ley y política. Con los reglamentos no se solucionan los graves problemas de un país. La situación hoy sería otra si la necesaria exigencia de cumplimiento de la ley hubiese ido acompañada de una sincera oferta de diálogo político. Es posible que en estas horas críticas, las encuestas, en lo que respecta a la opinión pública española, sean claramente favorables al Gobierno. Queremos advertir, sin embargo, que la situación creada va a ensanchar el campo de la protesta en Catalunya. Ya no es una cuestión de independentistas y no independentistas. Muchos ciudadanos ajenos al soberanismo sienten un profundo disgusto en estos momentos. La desafección respecto al Estado crece, por falta de un marco político de encauzamiento y diálogo. Los puentes están rotos. La situación es grave.
La logística del 1-O está prácticamente rota, pero el malestar ciudadano es enorme. Nuestro deber es advertirlo. ¡Cuidado con el cortoplacismo! ¡Cuidado con las miradas cortas! El Estado español y Catalunya se exponen a demasiados riesgos si entramos en un bucle de enfrentamientos. No es el momento de dejarse fascinar por las encuestas de urgencia. No es el momento de dejarse arrastrar por los insensatos que exigen una humillación pública de las instituciones catalanas. No es el momento, en Catalunya, de dejar la política en manos del reclamo emocional de la calle. No es la hora del aventurismo.
Queremos manifestar nuestro pleno respeto a las instituciones catalanas, amparadas por la Constitución y el Estatut, y nuestra adhesión al autogobierno. Y desde esta posición pedir serenidad a todos y la apertura inmediata de un marco de diálogo.
***
La siguiente nota es del propio director del diario La Vanguardia, Marius Carol:
Título: ¿Y ahora qué?
Texto: Una vez que la Guardia Civil desactivó la logística del referéndum del 1-O y detuvo a catorce altos cargos, mientras el Estado suspendía en la práctica el autogobierno catalán sin necesidad de pasar por el procedimiento del 155, la gente se hizo una pregunta elemental: ¿Y ahora qué? No es fácil responder a esta cuestión. Lo que parece claro es que será imposible llevar a cabo una consulta con garantías, como reconoció el presidente de Òmnium Cultural ante las operaciones policiales de los últimos días, así que en el soberanismo emergen voces que piden una declaración unilateral de independencia en el Parlament. Hay quienes quieren hacerlo de inmediato y quienes apuestan por proclamarla tras unas elecciones que den una amplia mayoría a una lista única independentista. Todo ello al margen de la Constitución y del Estatut, de donde emanan las instituciones catalanas. Nada nos permite ser demasiado optimistas a aquellos que creemos en una salida negociada, respetuosa con la legalidad.
¿No existe pues ninguna posibilidad de acuerdo? Pocas, pero habría que apurarlas. La historia nos enseña que a menudo las cosas no mejoran hasta que empiezan a empeorar. Si la máxima fuera cierta, lo tendríamos todo a favor para buscar un acuerdo. La semana pasada un alto cargo de la Generalitat y un dirigente del PP cenaron en Madrid y exploraron discretamente líneas de trabajo. Nada que vaya a cambiar la historia, pero es un brote en mitad del campo de batalla. Ciertamente preocupa pensar que las autoridades catalanas se fíen más de la calle que de su capacidad de gestionar la crisis, pero resultaría imprescindible encontrar interlocutores para negociar una solución digna.
Gaziel escribió tras el Sis d’Octubre que “las cosas disparatadas suelen acabar mal”. Sería inteligente no repetir la historia y buscar un marco en el que la política encauzara una situación que desborda a sus actores.
El discurso del Presidente Donald Trump en la Asamblea General de las Naciones Unidas tuvo momentos interesantes, como cuando reconoció al estado-nación como entidad soberana para los pueblos del mundo. Pero no se emocionen, chicos; al rato dio una buena dosis de imperialismo explícito cuando volvió a la carga contra los malos del momento: Irán, Corea del Norte y Venezuela (que, notamos como al pasar, son estados-nación). Analiza el discurso Pepe Escobar para el Asia Times:
Título: Unmasked: Trump Doctrine vows carnage for new axis of evil
Subtítulo: North Korea, Iran, Venezuela are targets in “compassionate” America’s war on the “wicked few.” It’s almost as though Washington felt its hegemony threatened
Texto: This was no “deeply philosophical address”. And hardly a show of “principled realism” – as spun by the White House. President Trump at the UN was “American carnage,” to borrow a phrase previously deployed by his nativist speechwriter Stephen Miller.
One should allow the enormity of what just happened to sink in, slowly. The president of the United States, facing the bloated bureaucracy that passes for the “international community,” threatened to “wipe off the map” the whole of the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (25 million people). And may however many millions of South Koreans who perish as collateral damage be damned.
Multiple attempts have been made to connect Trump’s threats to the madman theory cooked up by “Tricky Dicky” Nixon in cahoots with Henry Kissinger, according to which the USSR must always be under the impression the then-US president was crazy enough to, literally, go nuclear. But the DPRK will not be much impressed with this madman remix.
That leaves, on the table, a way more terrifying upgrade of Hiroshima and Nagasaki (Trump repeatedly invoked Truman in his speech). Frantic gaming will now be in effect in both Moscow and Beijing: Russia and China have their own stability / connectivity strategy under development to contain Pyongyang.
The Trump Doctrine has finally been enounced and a new axis of evil delineated. The winners are North Korea, Iran and Venezuela. Syria under Assad is a sort of mini-evil, and so is Cuba. Crucially, Ukraine and the South China Sea only got a fleeting mention from Trump, with no blunt accusations against Russia and China. That may reflect at least some degree of realpolitik; without “RC” – the Russia-China strategic partnership at the heart of the BRICS bloc and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) – there’s no possible solution to the Korean Peninsula stand-off.
In this epic battle of the “righteous many” against the “wicked few,” with the US described as a “compassionate nation” that wants “harmony and friendship, not conflict and strife,” it’s a bit of a stretch to have Islamic State – portrayed as being not remotely as “evil” as North Korea or Iran – get only a few paragraphs.
The art of unraveling a deal
According to the Trump Doctrine, Iran is “an economically depleted rogue state whose chief exports are violence, bloodshed and chaos,” a “murderous regime” profiting from a nuclear deal that is “an embarrassment to the United States.”
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted: “Trump’s ignorant hate speech belongs in medieval times – not the 21st century UN – unworthy of a reply.” Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov once again stressed full support for the nuclear deal ahead of a P5+1 ministers’ meeting scheduled for Wednesday, when Zarif was due to be seated at the same table as US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson. Under review: compliance with the deal. Tillerson is the only one who wants a renegotiation.
Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani has, in fact, developed an unassailable argument on the nuclear negotiations. He says the deal – which the P5+1 and the IAEA all agree is working – could be used as a model elsewhere. German chancellor Angela Merkel concurs. But, Rouhani says, if the US suddenly decides to unilaterally pull out, how could the North Koreans possibly be convinced it’s worth their while to sit down to negotiate anything with the Americans ?
What the Trump Doctrine is aiming at is, in fact, a favourite old neo-con play, reverting back to the dynamics of the Dick Cheney-driven Washington-Tehran Cold War years.
This script runs as follows: Iran must be isolated (by the West, only now that won’t fly with the Europeans); Iran is “destabilizing” the Middle East (Saudi Arabia, the ideological foundry of all strands of Salafi-jihadism, gets a free pass); and Iran, because it’s developing ballistic that could – allegedly – carry nuclear warheads, is the new North Korea.
That lays the groundwork for Trump to decertify the deal on October 15. Such a dangerous geopolitical outcome would then pit Washington, Tel Aviv, Riyadh and Abu Dhabi against Tehran, Moscow and Beijing, with European capitals non-aligned. That’s hardly compatible with a “compassionate nation” which wants “harmony and friendship, not conflict and strife.”
Afghanistan comes to South America
The Trump Doctrine, as enounced, privileges the absolute sovereignty of the nation-state. But then there are those pesky “rogue regimes” which must be, well, regime-changed. Enter Venezuela, now on “the brink of total collapse,” and run by a “dictator”; thus, America “cannot stand by and watch.”
No standing by, indeed. On Monday, Trump had dinner in New York with the presidents of Colombia, Peru and Brazil (the last indicted by the country’s Attorney General as the leader of a criminal organization and enjoying an inverted Kim dynasty rating of 95% unpopularity). On the menu: regime change in Venezuela.
Venezuelan “dictator” Maduro happens to be supported by Moscow and, most crucially, Beijing, which buys oil and has invested widely in infrastructure in the country with Brazilian construction giant Odebrecht crippled by the Car Wash investigation.
The stakes in Venezuela are extremely high. In early November, Brazilian and American forces will be deployed in a joint military exercise in the Amazon rainforest, at the Tri-Border between Peru, Brazil and Colombia. Call it a rehearsal for regime change in Venezuela. South America could well turn into the new Afghanistan, a consequence that flows from Trump’s assertion that “major portions of the world are in conflict and some, in fact, are going to hell.”
For all the lofty spin about “sovereignty”, the new axis of evil is all about, once again, regime change.
South America could turn into the new Afghanistan, a consequence that flows from Trump’s assertion that “major portions of the world are in conflict and some, in fact, are going to hell”
Russia-China aim to defuse the nuclear stand-off, then seduce North Korea into sharing in the interpenetration of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Eurasia Economic Union (EAEU), via a new Trans-Korea Railway and investments in DPRK ports. The name of the game is Eurasian integration.
Iran is a key node of BRI. It’s also a future full member of the SCO, it’s connected – via the North-South Transport Corridor – with India and Russia, and is a possible future supplier of natural gas to Europe. The name of the game, once again, is Eurasian integration.
Venezuela, meanwhile, holds the largest unexplored oil reserves on the planet, and is targeted by Beijing as a sort of advanced BRI node in South America.
The Trump Doctrine introduces a new set of problems for Russia-China. Putin and Xi do dream of reenacting a balance of power similar to that of the Concert of Europe, which lasted from 1815 (after Napoleon’s defeat) until the brink of World War I in 1914. That’s when Britain, Austria, Russia and Prussia decided that no European nation should be able to emulate the hegemony of France under Napoleon. In sitting as judge and executioner, Trump’s “compassionate” America certainly seems intent on echoing such hegemony.
No sé si han notado que la temporada de huracanes en el Caribe viene por demás movida. Las explicaciones causales al respecto van desde el puro azar hasta una supuesta inversión de los polos magnéticos en curso, si bien nos parece que lo más sensato es adjudicar la tendencia a un aumento de la temperatura superficial de la Tierra (más calor implica más energía, lo cual implica más violencia en la disipación de la misma). En efecto, según dicen los climatólogos, la temperatura media de la Tierra no para de aumentar, al punto que los escenarios a futuro previstos por el Panel Internacional sobre el Cambio Climático (siglas en inglés: IPCC) sugieren un cambio bastante superior al de un grado Centígrado previsto originalmente para fines de este siglo. Algunos autores han comenzado a notar que entre los efectos negativos de estos cambios está la vulnerabilidad de los estados tal como los conocíamos hasta ahora. El hecho no pasa desapercibido en el corazón del Imperio, los EEUU, donde se aprecia una creciente militarización interna como respuesta a los desastres naturales (fundamentalmente tornados y huracanes) que afectan su territorio. La nota que sigue habla de esto; es de Michael T. Klare y apareció en el sitio web TomDispatch:
Título: Beyond Harvey and Irma. Militarizing Homeland Security in the Climate-Change Era
Texto: Deployed to the Houston area to assist in Hurricane Harvey relief efforts, U.S. military forces hadn’t even completed their assignments when they were hurriedly dispatched to Florida, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands to face Irma, the fiercest hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean. Florida Governor Rick Scott, who had sent members of the state National Guard to devastated Houston, anxiously recalled them while putting in place emergency measures for his own state. A small flotilla of naval vessels, originally sent to waters off Texas, was similarly redirected to the Caribbean, while specialized combat units drawn from as far afield as Colorado, Illinois, and Rhode Island were rushed to Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Meanwhile, members of the California National Guard were being mobilized to fight wildfires raging across that state (as across much of the West) during its hottest summer on record.
Think of this as the new face of homeland security: containing the damage to America’s seacoasts, forests, and other vulnerable areas caused by extreme weather events made all the more frequent and destructive thanks to climate change. This is a “war” that won’t have a name -- not yet, not in the Trump era, but it will be no less real for that. “The firepower of the federal government” was being trained on Harvey, as William Brock Long, administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), put it in a blunt expression of this warlike approach. But don’t expect any of the military officials involved in such efforts to identify climate change as the source of their new strategic orientation, not while Commander in Chief Donald Trump sits in the Oval Office refusing to acknowledge the reality of global warming or its role in heightening the intensity of major storms; not while he continues to stock his administration, top to bottom, with climate-change deniers.
Until Trump moved into the White House, however, senior military officers in the Pentagon were speaking openly of the threats posed to American security by climate change and how that phenomenon might alter the very nature of their work. Though mum’s the word today, since the early years of this century military officials have regularly focused on and discussed such matters, issuing striking warnings about an impending increase in extreme weather events -- hurricanes, incessant rainfalls, protracted heat waves, and droughts -- and ways in which that would mean an ever-expanding domestic role for the military in both disaster response and planning for an extreme future.
That future, of course, is now. Like other well-informed people, senior military officials are perfectly aware that it’s difficult to attribute any given storm, Harvey and Irma included, to human-caused climate change with 100% confidence. But they also know that hurricanes draw their fierce energy from the heat of tropical waters, and that global warming is raising the temperatures of those waters. It’s making storms like Harvey and Irma, when they do occur, ever more powerful and destructive. “As greenhouse gas emissions increase, sea levels are rising, average global temperatures increasing, and severe weather patterns are accelerating,” the Department of Defense (DoD) bluntly explained in the Quadrennial Defense Review, a 2014 synopsis of defense policy. This, it added, “may increase the frequency, scale, and complexity of future missions, including defense support to civil authorities” -- just the sort of crisis we’ve been witnessing over these last weeks.
As this statement suggests, any increase in climate-related extreme events striking U.S. territory will inevitably lead to a commensurate rise in American military support for civilian agencies, diverting key assets -- troops and equipment -- from elsewhere. While the Pentagon can certainly devote substantial capabilities to a small number of short-term emergencies, the multiplication and prolongation of such events, now clearly beginning to occur, will require a substantial commitment of forces, which, in time, will mean a major reorientation of U.S. security policy for the climate change era. This may not be something the White House is prepared to do today, but it may soon find itself with little choice, especially since it seems so intent on crippling all civilian governmental efforts related to climate change.
Mobilizing for Harvey and Irma
When it came to emergency operations in Texas and Florida, the media understandably put its spotlight on moving tales of rescue efforts by ordinary folks. As a result, the military’s role in these operations was easy to miss, but it took place on a massive scale. Every branch of the armed services -- the Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard -- deployed significant contingents to the Houston area, in some cases sending along the sort of specialized equipment normally used in major combat operations. The combined response represented an extraordinary commitment of military assets to that desperate, massively flooded region: tens of thousands of National Guard and active-duty troops, thousands of Humvees and other military vehicles, hundreds of helicopters, dozens of cargo planes, and an assortment of naval vessels. And just as operations in Texas began to wind down, the Pentagon commenced a similarly vast mobilization for Hurricane Irma.
The military’s response to Harvey began with front-line troops: the National Guard, the U.S. Coast Guard, and units of the U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM), the joint-service force responsible for homeland defense. Texas Governor Greg Abbott mobilized the entire Texas National Guard, about 10,000 strong, and guard contingents were deployed from other states as well. The Texas Guard came equipped with its own complement of helicopters, Humvees, and other all-terrain vehicles; the Coast Guard supplied 46 helicopters and dozens of shallow-water vessels, while USNORTHCOM provided 87 helicopters, four C-130 Hercules cargo aircraft, and 100 high-water vehicles.
Still more aircraft were provided by the Air Force, including seven C-17 cargo planes and, in a highly unusual move, an E-3A Sentry airborne warning and control system, or AWACS. This super-sophisticated aircraft was originally designed to oversee air combat operations in Europe in the event of an all-out war with the Soviet Union. Instead, this particular AWACS conducted air traffic control and surveillance around Houston, gathering data on flooded areas, and providing “situational awareness” to military units involved in the relief operation.
For its part, the Navy deployed two major surface vessels, the USS Kearsarge, an amphibious assault ship, and the USS Oak Hill, a dock landing ship. “These ships,” the Navy reported, “are capable of providing medical support, maritime civil affairs, maritime security, expeditionary logistic support, [and] medium and heavy lift air support.” Accompanying them were several hundred Marines from the 26th Marine Expeditionary Unit based at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, along with their amphibious assault vehicles and a dozen or so helicopters and MV-22 Osprey tilt-rotor aircraft.
When Irma struck, the Pentagon ordered a similar mobilization of troops and equipment. The Kearsarge and the Oak Hill, with their embarked Marines and helicopters, were redirected from Houston to waters off Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. At the same time, the Navy dispatched a much larger flotilla, including the USS Abraham Lincoln (the aircraft carrier on which President George W. Bush had his infamous “mission accomplished” moment), the missile destroyer USS Farragut, the amphibious assault ship USS Iwo Jima, and the amphibious transport dock USS New York. Instead of its usual complement of fighter jets, the Abraham Lincoln set sail from its base in Norfolk, Virginia, with heavy-lift helicopters; the Iwo Jima and New York also carried a range of helicopters for relief operations. Another amphibious vessel, the USS Wasp, was already off the Virgin Islands, providing supplies and evacuating those in need of emergency medical care.
This represents the sort of mobilization you would expect for a small war and is characteristic of how, in the past, the U.S. military has responded to major domestic disasters like hurricanes Katrina (2003) and Sandy (2012). Such events were once rarities and so weren’t viewed as major impediments to the carrying out of the military’s “normal” function: fighting the nation’s foreign wars. However, thanks to the way climate change is intensifying the weather, disasters of this magnitude are starting to occur more frequently and on an ever-larger scale. As a result, the previously peripheral mission of disaster relief is threatening to become a primary one for an already overstretched Pentagon and, as top military officials are aware, the future only holds promise of far more of the same. Think of this as the new face of “war,” American-style.
Redefining Homeland Security
Even if no one else in Donald Trump’s Washington is ready or willing to deal with climate change, the U.S. military will be. It’s already long been preparing in its own fashion to take a pivotal role in responding to a world of recurring natural disasters. This, in turn, will mean that in the coming years climate change will increasingly dominate the domestic national security agenda (whether the Trump administration and those that follow like it, or even admit it) and such domestic emergencies will undoubtedly be militarized. In the process, the very concept of “homeland security” is destined to change.
When the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) was established in November 2002 in the wake of the 9/11 terror attacks, its principal missions included preventing further terrorist assaults on the country as well as dealing with drug smuggling, illegal immigration, and other similar issues. Climate change never entered the equation. Even though FEMA and the Coast Guard, major components of the DHS, have found themselves dealing with its increasingly disastrous effects, the department’s focus on immigration and terrorism has only intensified in the Trump era. The president has ensured that this myopic outlook would reign supreme by, among other things, calling for a sharp increase in the number of Border Patrol agents (and greater infusions of funding for border control issues), while working to slash the Coast Guard’s budget.
He has also, of course, ensured that all parts of the government other than the military that might in any way deal with climate change were staffed and run by climate-change deniers. Only at the Department of Defense do senior officials still describe climate change in a more realistic fashion, as an observable reality that will pose new dangers to America’s security and create new operational nightmares.
“Speaking as a soldier,” said former Army Chief of Staff General Gordon Sullivan back in 2007, “we never have 100 percent certainty. If you wait until you have 100 percent certainty, something bad is going to happen on the battlefield.” The same, he continued, was true regarding climate change. “If we keep on with business as usual, we will reach a point where some of the worst effects are inevitable.”
General Gordon’s comments were incorporated into a highly influential report that year on “National Security and the Threat of Climate Change,” released by the CNA Corporation (formerly the Center for Naval Analyses), a federally-funded research center that aids the Navy and Marine Corps. That report focused with particular concern on the risk of an increase in overseas conflicts from the impact of climate change, particularly if prolonged droughts and growing food scarcity inflame existing ethnic and religious schisms in a range of poor countries (mainly in Africa and the Greater Middle East). “The U.S. may be drawn more frequently into these situations, either alone or with allies, to help provide stability before conditions worsen and are exploited by extremists,” the report warned.
The same climate effects that could trigger a more embattled world would also, military analysts came to believe, produce increased risk for the United States itself and so generate a greater need for Pentagon involvement at home. “Extreme weather events and natural disasters, as the U.S. experienced with Hurricane Katrina, may lead to increased missions for a number of U.S. agencies, including state and local governments, the Department of Homeland Security, and our already stretched military,” that CNA report noted a decade ago. In a prescient comment, it also warned that this could lead to clashing strategic priorities. “If the frequency of natural disasters increases with climate change, future military and political leaders may face hard choices about where and when to engage.”
With this in mind, a group of officers -- active duty as well as retired -- endeavored to persuade top officials to make climate change a central focus of strategic planning. (Their collective efforts can be sampled at the website maintained by the Center for Climate and Security, an advocacy group former officers established to promote awareness of the issue.) These efforts achieved a major breakthrough in 2014, when the Pentagon released a Climate Change Adaptation Roadmap, a blueprint for Pentagon-wide remedial action in a warming world. Such an effort was needed, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel explained in his foreword, because climate change was sure to generate more conflict abroad and more emergencies at home. “The military could be called upon more often to support civil authorities, and provide humanitarian assistance and disaster relief in the face of more frequent and more intense natural disasters.” As a consequence, the DoD and its component organizations must begin “integrating climate change considerations into our plans, operations, and training.”
For a time, the armed forces embraced Hagel’s instructions, taking steps to reduce their carbon emissions and better prepare for just such a future. The various regional combatant commands like NORTHCOM and the U.S. Southern Command (SOUTHCOM), which covers Latin America and the Caribbean, responded with increased training and other preparations for extreme storm events and for sea-level rise in their areas of responsibility, a change reflected in a 2015 DoD report to Congress, “National Security Implications of Climate-Related Risks and a Changing Climate.”
In the past, such efforts, only beginning, were never allowed to distract the services from their main presumed function: contesting America’s foreign adversaries. Now, as with Harvey and Irma, the military’s domestic responsibilities are on the rise just as the president is assigning them yet more (or more intensified) missions in the never-ending war on terror, including a stepped-up presence in Afghanistan as well as in Iraq and Syria, more intense air campaigns across the Greater Middle East, and a heightened pace of military maneuvers near North Korea. As shown by a series of deadly collisions involving Navy vessels in the Pacific, this higher tempo of operations has already stretched the military to or even beyond its limits in various conflicts it has proven incapable either of winning or ending. The result: overworked crews and overstretched resources. With the massive response to Harvey and Irma, it is being pushed yet further.
In short, as the planet continues to heat up, the armed forces and the nation at large face an existential crisis. On the one hand, President Trump and his generals, including Secretary of Defense Mattis, are once again fully focused on the increased use of military force (and the threat of more of the same) abroad. This includes not only the wars against the Taliban, ISIS, al-Qaeda, and their numerous spin-offs, but also preparations for possible military strikes on North Korea and perhaps even, at some future date, on Chinese installations in the South China Sea.
As global warming intensifies, instability and chaos, including massive flows of refugees, will only grow, undoubtedly inviting yet more military interventions abroad. Meanwhile, climate change will increase chaos and devastation at home and there, too, it seems that Washington will often see the military as America’s sole reliable response mechanism. As a result, decisions will have to be made about ending American conflicts abroad and refocusing domestically or that overstretched military will simply swallow even more of the government’s dollars and gain yet more power in Washington. And yet, whatever else the armed forces might (or might not) be capable of, they are not capable of defeating climate change, which, at its essence, is anything but a military problem. While there are potential solutions to it, those, too, are in no way military.
Despite their reluctance to speak publicly about such environmental matters right now, top officials in the Pentagon are painfully aware of the problem at hand. They know that global warming, as it progresses, will generate new challenges at home and abroad, potentially stretching their capabilities to the breaking point and leaving this country ever more exposed to the ravages of climate change without offering any solutions to the problem. As a result, the generals face a fundamental choice. They can continue to self-censor their sophisticated analysis of climate change and its likely effects, and so remain complicit with the administration’s headlong rush into national catastrophe, or they can speak out forcefully on its threat to homeland security, and the resulting need for a new, largely non-military strategic posture that puts climate action at the top of the nation’s priorities.
