lunes, 8 de septiembre de 2014

Variaciones sobre el fascismo

¿Qué cosa es, exactamente, el fascismo? Un nuevo ensayo de Samir Amin (foto), aparecido en el número de Septiembre de Monthly Review, vuelve a la carga sobre el tema y sugiere algunas líneas para ensayar una respuesta. El artículo está escrito pensando en la Ucrania de estos días. Alarma y asusta ver las correspondencias entre ayer y hoy. Acá vamos. Como siempre, twitteros, abstenerse. 

Título: The Return of Fascism in Contemporary Capitalism

Texto: It is not by chance that the very title of this contribution links the return of fascism on the political scene with the crisis of contemporary capitalism. Fascism is not synonymous with an authoritarian police regime that rejects the uncertainties of parliamentary electoral democracy. Fascism is a particular political response to the challenges with which the management of capitalist society may be confronted in specific circumstances.


Unity and Diversity of Fascism

Political movements that can rightly be called fascist were in the forefront and exercised power in a number of European countries, particularly during the 1930s up to 1945. These included Italy’s Benito Mussolini, Germany’s Adolf Hitler, Spain’s Francisco Franco, Portugal’s António de Oliveira Salazar, France’s Philippe Pétain, Hungary’s Miklós Horthy, Romania’s Ion Antonescu, and Croatia’s Ante Pavelic. The diversity of societies that were the victims of fascism—both major developed capitalist societies and minor dominated capitalist societies, some connected with a victorious war, others the product of defeat—should prevent us from lumping them all together. I shall thus specify the different effects that this diversity of structures and conjunctures produced in these societies.

Yet, beyond this diversity, all these fascist regimes had two characteristics in common:

(1) In the circumstances, they were all willing to manage the government and society in such a way as not to call the fundamental principles of capitalism into question, specifically private capitalist property, including that of modern monopoly capitalism. That is why I call these different forms of fascism particular ways of managing capitalism and not political forms that challenge the latter’s legitimacy, even if “capitalism” or “plutocracies” were subject to long diatribes in the rhetoric of fascist speeches. The lie that hides the true nature of these speeches appears as soon as one examines the “alternative” proposed by these various forms of fascism, which are always silent concerning the main point—private capitalist property. It remains the case that the fascist choice is not the only response to the challenges confronting the political management of a capitalist society. It is only in certain conjunctures of violent and deep crisis that the fascist solution appears to be the best one for dominant capital, or sometimes even the only possible one. The analysis must, then, focus on these crises.

(2) The fascist choice for managing a capitalist society in crisis is always based—by definition even—on the categorical rejection of “democracy.” Fascism always replaces the general principles on which the theories and practices of modern democracies are based—recognition of a diversity of opinions, recourse to electoral procedures to determine a majority, guarantee of the rights of the minority, etc.—with the opposed values of submission to the requirements of collective discipline and the authority of the supreme leader and his main agents. This reversal of values is then always accompanied by a return of backward-looking ideas, which are able to provide an apparent legitimacy to the procedures of submission that are implemented. The proclamation of the supposed necessity of returning to the (“medieval”) past, of submitting to the state religion or to some supposed characteristic of the “race” or the (ethnic) “nation” make up the panoply of ideological discourses deployed by the fascist powers.


Benito Mussolini - Marcha sobre Roma, 1922

The diverse forms of fascism found in modern European history share these two characteristics and fall into one of the following four categories:

(1) The fascism of the major “developed” capitalist powers that aspired to become dominant hegemonic powers in the world, or at least in the regional, capitalist system

Nazism is the model of this type of fascism. Germany became a major industrial power beginning in the 1870s and a competitor of the hegemonic powers of the era (Great Britain and, secondarily, France) and of the country that aspired to become hegemonic (the United States). After the 1918 defeat, it had to deal with the consequences of its failure to achieve its hegemonic aspirations. Hitler clearly formulated his plan: to establish over Europe, including Russia and maybe beyond, the hegemonic domination of “Germany,” i.e., the capitalism of the monopolies that had supported the rise of Nazism. He was disposed to accept a compromise with his major opponents: Europe and Russia would be given to him, China to Japan, the rest of Asia and Africa to Great Britain, and the Americas to the United States. His error was in thinking that such a compromise was possible: Great Britain and the United States did not accept it, while Japan, in contrast, supported it.

Japanese fascism belongs to the same category. Since 1895, modern capitalist Japan aspired to impose its domination over all of East Asia. Here the slide was made “softly” from the “imperial” form of managing a rising national capitalism—based on apparently “liberal” institutions (an elected Diet), but in fact completely controlled by the Emperor and the aristocracy transformed by modernization—to a brutal form, managed directly by the military High Command. Nazi Germany made an alliance with imperial/fascist Japan, while Great Britain and the United States (after Pearl Harbor, in 1941) clashed with Tokyo, as did the resistance in China—the deficiencies of the Kuomintang being compensated for by the support of the Maoist Communists.


(2) The fascism of second rank capitalist powers

Italy’s Mussolini (the inventor of fascism, including its name) is the prime example. Mussolinism was the response of the Italian right (the old aristocracy, new bourgeoisie, middle classes) to the crisis of the 1920s and the growing communist threat. But neither Italian capitalism nor its political instrument, Mussolini’s fascism, had the ambition to dominate Europe, let alone the world. Despite all the boasts of the Duce about reconstructing the Roman Empire (!), Mussolini understood that the stability of his system rested on his alliance—as a subaltern—either with Great Britain (master of the Mediterranean) or Nazi Germany. Hesitation between the two possible alliances continued right up to the eve of the Second World War.

The fascism of Salazar and Franco belong to this same type. They were both dictators installed by the right and the Catholic Church in response to the dangers of republican liberals or socialist republicans. The two were never, for this reason, ostracized for their anti-democratic violence (under the pretext of anti-communism) by the major imperialist powers. Washington rehabilitated them after 1945 (Salazar was a founding member of NATO and Spain consented to U.S. military bases), followed by the European Community—guarantor by nature of the reactionary capitalist order. After the Carnation Revolution (1974) and the death of Franco (1980), these two systems joined the camp of the new low-intensity “democracies” of our era.


(3) The fascism of defeated powers

These include France’s Vichy government, as well as Belgium’s Léon Degrelle and the “Flemish” pseudo-government supported by the Nazis. In France, the upper class chose “Hitler rather than the Popular Front” (see Annie Lacroix-Riz’s books on this subject). This type of fascism, connected with defeat and submission to “German Europe,” was forced to retreat into the background following the defeat of the Nazis. In France, it gave way to the Resistance Councils that, for a time, united Communists with other Resistance fighters (Charles de Gaulle in particular). Its further evolution had to wait (with the initiation of European construction and France’s joining the Marshall Plan and NATO, i.e., the willing submission to U.S. hegemony) for the conservative right and anti-communist, social-democratic right to break permanently with the radical left that came out of the anti-fascist and potentially anti-capitalist Resistance.


(4) Fascism in the dependent societies of Eastern Europe

We move down several degrees more when we come to examine the capitalist societies of Eastern Europe (Poland, the Baltic states, Romania, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Greece, and western Ukraine during the Polish era). We should here speak of backward and, consequently, dependent capitalism. In the interwar period, the reactionary ruling classes of these countries supported Nazi Germany. It is, nevertheless, necessary to examine on a case-by-case basis their political articulation with Hitler’s project.

In Poland, the old hostility to Russian domination (Tsarist Russia), which became hostility to the communist Soviet Union, encouraged by the popularity of the Catholic Papacy, would normally have made this country into Germany’s vassal, on the Vichy model. But Hitler did not understand it that way: the Poles, like the Russians, Ukrainians, and Serbs, were people destined for extermination, along with Jews, the Roma, and several others. There was, then, no place for a Polish fascism allied with Berlin.

Horthy’s Hungary and Antonescu’s Romania were, in contrast, treated as subaltern allies of Nazi Germany. Fascism in these two countries was itself the result of social crises specific to each of them: fear of “communism” after the Béla Kun period in Hungary and the national chauvinist mobilization against Hungarians and Ruthenians in Romania.

In Yugoslavia, Hitler’s Germany (followed by Mussolini’s Italy) supported an “independent” Croatia, entrusted to the management of the anti-Serb Ustashi with the decisive support of the Catholic Church, while the Serbs were marked for extermination.

The Russian Revolution had obviously changed the situation with regard to the prospects of working-class struggles and the response of the reactionary propertied classes, not only in the territory of the pre–1939 Soviet Union, but also in the lost territories—the Baltic states and Poland. Following the Treaty of Riga in 1921, Poland annexed the western parts of Belarus (Volhynia) and Ukraine (southern Galicia, which was previously an Austrian Crownland; and northern Galicia, which had been a province of the Tsarist Empire).
In this whole region, two camps took form from 1917 (and even from 1905 with the first Russian Revolution): pro-socialist (which became pro-Bolshevik), popular in large parts of the peasantry (which aspired to a radical agrarian reform for their benefit) and in intellectual circles (Jews in particular); and anti-socialist (and consequently complaisant with regard to anti-democratic governments under fascist influence) in all the landowning classes. The reintegration of the Baltic states, Belarus, and western Ukraine into the Soviet Union in 1939 emphasized this contrast.

The political map of the conflicts between “pro-fascists” and “anti-fascists” in this part of Eastern Europe was blurred, on the one hand, by the conflict between Polish chauvinism (which persisted in its project of “Polonizing” the annexed Belarussian and Ukrainian regions by settler colonies) and the victimized peoples; and, on the other hand, by the conflict between the Ukrainian “nationalists,” who were both anti-Polish and anti-Russian (because of anti-communism) and Hitler’s project, which envisaged no Ukrainian state as a subaltern ally, since its people were simply marked for extermination.

I here refer the reader to Olha Ostriitchouk’s authoritative work Les Ukrainiens face à leur passé (1) Ostriitchouk’s rigorous analysis of the contemporary history of this region (Austrian Galicia, Polish Ukraine, Little Russia, which became Soviet Ukraine) will provide the reader with an understanding of the issues at stake in the still ongoing conflicts as well as the place occupied by local fascism.


Mujeres jóvenes vitoreando a Mussolini - Italia, 1935

The Western Right’s Complaisant View of Past and Present Fascism

The right in European parliaments between the two world wars was always complaisant about fascism and even about the more repugnant Nazism. Churchill himself, regardless of his extreme “Britishness,” never hid his sympathy for Mussolini. U.S. presidents, and the establishment Democratic and Republican parties, only discovered belatedly the danger presented by Hitler’s Germany and, above all, imperial/fascist Japan. With all the cynicism characteristic of the U.S. establishment, Truman openly avowed what others thought quietly: allow the war to wear out its protagonists—Germany, Soviet Russia, and the defeated Europeans—and intervene as late as possible to reap the benefits. That is not at all the expression of a principled anti-fascist position. No hesitation was shown in the rehabilitation of Salazar and Franco in 1945. Furthermore, connivance with European fascism was a constant in the policy of the Catholic Church. It would not strain credibility to describe Pius XII as a collaborator with Mussolini and Hitler.

Hitler’s anti-Semitism itself aroused opprobrium only much later, when it reached the ultimate stage of its murderous insanity. The emphasis on hate for “Judeo-Bolshevism” stirred up by Hitler’s speeches was common to many politicians. It was only after the defeat of Nazism that it was necessary to condemn anti-Semitism in principle. The task was made easier because the self-proclaimed heirs to the title of “victims of the Shoah” had become the Zionists of Israel, allies of Western imperialism against the Palestinians and the Arab people—who, however, had never been involved in the horrors of European anti-Semitism!

Obviously, the collapse of the Nazis and Mussolini’s Italy obliged rightist political forces in Western Europe (west of the “curtain”) to distinguish themselves from those who—within their own groups—had been accomplices and allies of fascism. Yet, fascist movements were only forced to retreat into the background and hide behind the scenes, without really disappearing.

In West Germany, in the name of “reconciliation,” the local government and its patrons (the United States, and secondarily Great Britain and France) left in place nearly all those who had committed war crimes and crimes against humanity. In France, legal proceedings were initiated against the Resistance for “abusive executions for collaboration” when the Vichyists reappeared on the political scene with Antoine Pinay. In Italy, fascism became silent, but was still present in the ranks of Christian Democracy and the Catholic Church. In Spain, the “reconciliation” compromise imposed in 1980 by the European Community (which later became the European Union) purely and simply prohibited any reminder of Francoist crimes.

The support of the socialist and social-democratic parties of Western and Central Europe for the anti-communist campaigns undertaken by the conservative right shares responsibility for the later return of fascism. These parties of the “moderate” left had, however, been authentically and resolutely anti-fascist. Yet all of that was forgotten. With the conversion of these parties to social liberalism, their unconditional support for European construction—systematically devised as a guarantee for the reactionary capitalist order—and their no less unconditional submission to U.S. hegemony (through NATO, among other means), a reactionary bloc combining the classic right and the social liberals has been consolidated; one that could, if necessary, accommodate the new extreme right.

Subsequently, the rehabilitation of East European fascism was quickly undertaken beginning in 1990. All of the fascist movements of the countries concerned had been faithful allies or collaborators to varying degrees with Hitlerism. With the approaching defeat, a large number of their active leaders had been redeployed to the West and could, consequently, “surrender” to the U.S. armed forces. None of them were returned to Soviet, Yugoslav, or other governments in the new people’s democracies to be tried for their crimes (in violation of Allied agreements). They all found refuge in the United States and Canada. And they were all pampered by the authorities for their fierce anti-communism!

In Les Ukrainiens face à leur passé, Ostriitchouk provides everything necessary to establish irrefutably the collusion between the objectives of U.S. policy (and behind it of Europe) and those of the local fascists of Eastern Europe (specifically, Ukraine). For example, “Professor” Dmytro Dontsov, up to his death (in 1975), published all his works in Canada, which are not only violently anti-communist (the term “Judeo-Bolshevism” is customary with him), but also even fundamentally anti-democratic. The governments of the so-called democratic states of the West supported, and even financed and organized, the “Orange Revolution” (i.e., the fascist counter-revolution) in Ukraine. And all that is continuing. Earlier, in Yugoslavia, Canada had also paved the way for the Croatian Ustashis.

The clever way in which the “moderate” media (which cannot openly acknowledge that they support avowed fascists) hide their support for these fascists is simple: they substitute the term “nationalist” for fascist. Professor Dontsov is no longer a fascist, he is a Ukrainian “nationalist,” just like Marine Le Pen is no longer a fascist, but a nationalist (as Le Monde, for example, has written)!

Are these authentic fascists really “nationalists,” simply because they say so? That is doubtful. Nationalists today deserve this label only if they call into question the power of the actually dominant forces in the contemporary world, i.e., that of the monopolies of the United States and Europe. These so-called “nationalists” are friends of Washington, Brussels, and NATO. Their “nationalism” amounts to chauvinistic hatred of largely innocent neighboring people who were never responsible for their misfortunes: for Ukrainians, it is Russians (and not the Tsar); for Croatians, it is the Serbs; for the new extreme right in France, Austria, Switzerland, Greece, and elsewhere, it is “immigrants.”

The danger represented by the collusion between major political forces in the United States (Republicans and Democrats) and Europe (the parliamentary right and the social liberals), on one side, and the fascists of the East, on the other, should not be underestimated. Hillary Clinton has set herself up as leading spokeswoman of this collusion and pushes war hysteria to the limit. Even more than George W. Bush, if that is possible, she calls for preventive war with a vengeance (and not only for repetition of the Cold War) against Russia—with even more open intervention in Ukraine, Georgia, and Moldova, among other places—against China, and against people in revolt in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. Unfortunately, this headlong flight of the United States in response to its decline could find sufficient support to allow Hillary Clinton to become “the first woman president of the United States!” Let’s not forget what hides behind this false feminist.

Undoubtedly, the fascist danger might still appear today to be no threat to the “democratic” order in the United States and Europe west of the old “Curtain.” The collusion between the classic parliamentary right and the social liberals makes it unnecessary for dominant capital to resort to the services of an extreme right that follows in the wake of the historical fascist movements. But then what should we conclude about the electoral successes of the extreme right over the last decade? Europeans are clearly also victims of the spread of generalized monopoly capitalism (2). We can see why, then, when confronted with collusion between the right and the so-called socialist left, they take refuge in electoral abstention or in voting for the extreme right. The responsibility of the potentially radical left is, in this context, huge: if this left had the audacity to propose real advances beyond current capitalism, it would gain the credibility that it lacks. An audacious radical left is necessary to provide the coherence that the current piecemeal protest movements and defensive struggles still lack. The “movement” could, then, reverse the social balance of power in favor of the working classes and make progressive advances possible. The successes won by the popular movements in South America are proof of that.

In the current state of things, the electoral successes of the extreme right stem from contemporary capitalism itself. These successes allow the media to throw together, with the same opprobrium, the “populists of the extreme right and those of the extreme left,” obscuring the fact that the former are pro-capitalist (as the term extreme right demonstrates) and thus possible allies for capital, while the latter are the only potentially dangerous opponents of capital’s system of power.

We observe, mutatis mutandis, a similar conjuncture in the United States, although its extreme right is never called fascist. The McCarthyism of yesterday, just like the Tea Party fanatics and warmongers (e.g., Hillary Clinton) of today, openly defend “liberties”—understood as exclusively belonging to the owners and managers of monopoly capital—against “the government,” suspected of acceding to the demands of the system’s victims.

One last observation about fascist movements: they seem unable to know when and how to stop making their demands. The cult of the leader and blind obedience, the acritical and supreme valorization of pseudo-ethnic or pseudo-religious mythological constructions that convey fanaticism, and the recruitment of militias for violent actions make fascism into a force that is difficult to control. Mistakes, even beyond irrational deviations from the viewpoint of the social interests served by the fascists, are inevitable. Hitler was a truly mentally ill person, yet he could force the big capitalists who had put him in power to follow him to the end of his madness and even gained the support of a very large portion of the population. Although that is only an extreme case, and Mussolini, Franco, Salazar, and Pétain were not mentally ill, a large number of their associates and henchmen did not hesitate to perpetrate criminal acts.



Saludo fascista, II Guerra Mundial - Italia, circa 1940

Fascism in the Contemporary South

The integration of Latin America into globalized capitalism in the nineteenth century was based on the exploitation of peasants reduced to the status of “peons” and their subjection to the savage practices of large landowners. The system of Porfiro Diaz in Mexico is a good example. The furtherance of this integration in the twentieth century produced the “modernization of poverty.” The rapid rural exodus, more pronounced and earlier in Latin America than in Asia and Africa, led to new forms of poverty in the contemporary urban favelas, which came to replace older forms of rural poverty. Concurrently, forms of political control of the masses were “modernized” by establishing dictatorships, abolishing electoral democracy, prohibiting parties and trade unions, and conferring on “modern” secret services all rights to arrest and torture through their intelligence techniques. Clearly, these forms of political management are visibly similar to those of fascism found in the countries of dependent capitalism in Eastern Europe. The dictatorships of twentieth-century Latin America served the local reactionary bloc (large landowners, comprador bourgeoisies, and sometimes middle classes that benefited from this type of lumpen development), but above all, they served dominant foreign capital, specifically that of the United States, which, for this reason, supported these dictatorships up to their reversal by the recent explosion of popular movements. The power of these movements and the social and democratic advances that they have imposed exclude—at least in the short term—the return of para-fascist dictatorships. But the future is uncertain: the conflict between the movement of the working classes and local and world capitalism has only begun. As with all types of fascism, the dictatorships of Latin America did not avoid mistakes, some of which were fatal to them. I am thinking, for example, of Jorge Rafael Videla, who went to war over the Malvinas Islands to capitalize on Argentine national sentiment for his benefit. [Nota de Astroboy: Macanas; no fue Videla sino Galtieri].

Beginning in the 1980s, the lumpen development characteristic of the spread of generalized monopoly capitalism took over from the national populist systems of the Bandung era (1955–1980) in Asia and Africa (3). This lumpen development also produced forms akin both to the modernization of poverty and modernization of repressive violence. The excesses of the post–Nasserist and post–Baathist systems in the Arab world provide good examples of this. We should not lump together the national populist regimes of the Bandung era and those of their successors, which jumped on the bandwagon of globalized neoliberalism, because they were both “non-democratic.” The Bandung regimes, despite their autocratic political practices, benefitted from some popular legitimacy both because of their actual achievements, which benefited the majority of workers, and their anti-imperialist positions. The dictatorships that followed lost this legitimacy as soon as they accepted subjection to the globalized neoliberal model and accompanying lumpen development. Popular and national authority, although not democratic, gave way to police violence as such, in service of the neoliberal, anti-popular, and anti-national project.

The recent popular uprisings, beginning in 2011, have called into question the dictatorships. But the dictatorships have only been called into question. An alternative will only find the means to achieve stability if it succeeds in combining the three objectives around which the revolts have been mobilized: continuation of the democratization of society and politics, progressive social advances, and the affirmation of national sovereignty.

We are still far from that. That is why there are multiple alternatives possible in the visible short term. Can there be a possible return to the national popular model of the Bandung era, maybe with a hint of democracy? Or a more pronounced crystallization of a democratic, popular, and national front? Or a plunge into a backward-looking illusion that, in this context, takes on the form of an “Islamization” of politics and society?

In the conflict over—in much confusion—these three possible responses to the challenge, the Western powers (the United States and its subaltern European allies) have made their choice: they have given preferential support to the Muslim Brotherhood and/or other “Salafist” organizations of political Islam. The reason for that is simple and obvious: these reactionary political forces accept exercising their power within globalized neoliberalism (and thus abandoning any prospect for social justice and national independence). That is the sole objective pursued by the imperialist powers.

Consequently, political Islam’s program belongs to the type of fascism found in dependent societies. In fact, it shares with all forms of fascism two fundamental characteristics: (1) the absence of a challenge to the essential aspects of the capitalist order (and in this context this amounts to not challenging the model of lumpen development connected to the spread of globalized neoliberal capitalism); and (2) the choice of anti-democratic, police-state forms of political management (such as the prohibition of parties and organizations, and forced Islamization of morals).

The anti-democratic option of the imperialist powers (which gives the lie to the pro-democratic rhetoric found in the flood of propaganda to which we are subjected), then, accepts the possible “excesses” of the Islamic regimes in question. Like other types of fascism and for the same reasons, these excesses are inscribed in the “genes” of their modes of thought: unquestioned submission to leaders, fanatic valorization of adherence to the state religion, and the formation of shock forces used to impose submission. In fact, and this can be seen already, the “Islamist” program makes progress only in the context of a civil war (between, among others, Sunnis and Shias) and results in nothing other than permanent chaos. This type of Islamist power is, then, the guarantee that the societies in question will remain absolutely incapable of asserting themselves on the world scene. It is clear that a declining United States has given up on getting something better—a stable and submissive local government—in favor of this “second best.”

Similar developments and choices are found outside of the Arab-Muslim world, such as Hindu India, for example. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which just won the elections in India, is a reactionary Hindu religious party that accepts the inclusion of its government into globalized neoliberalism. It is the guarantor that India, under its government, will retreat from its project to be an emerging power. Describing it as fascist, then, is not really straining credibility too much.

In conclusion, fascism has returned to the West, East, and South; and this return is naturally connected with the spread of the systemic crisis of generalized, financialized, and globalized monopoly capitalism. Actual or even potential recourse to the services of the fascist movement by the dominant centers of this hard-pressed system calls for the greatest vigilance on our part. This crisis is destined to grow worse and, consequently, the threat of resorting to fascist solutions will become a real danger. Hillary Clinton’s support for Washington’s warmongering does not bode well for the immediate future.

Hola chicos!  Me recuerdan?


Notes:

1. Olha Ostriitchouk, Les Ukrainiens face à leur passé [Ukrainians Faced with Their Past] (Brussels: P.I.E. Lang, 2013).

2. For a further elaboration, see Samir Amin, The Implosion of Contemporary Capitalism (New York: Monthly Review Press, 2013).

3. For the spread of generalized monopoly capitalism, see ibid.

Años


Tal como se preveía, los “militantes” “fanáticos” del Estado Islámico son la nueva gran excusa del Imperio para seguir jodiendo en Medio Oriente. Como si nada, chicos. Leemos en Russia Today:

Título: EE.UU.: La lucha contra el Estado Islámico podría durar años

Texto: La Administración de Barack Obama no descarta que la operación militar de EE.UU. contra los yihadistas del Estado Islámico pudiera tardar varios años en derrotar al movimiento. Es posible que siga tras el fin del mandato del presidente Obama.

Según varios funcionarios de la Administración del presidente Obama citados por el periódico 'New York Times', la lucha contra los islamistas en Irak podría tardar 3 años en completar sus 3 fases.

La primera fase son los bombardeos con el objetivo de frenar el avance del Estado Islámico en el norte y el oeste de Irak, así como la protección de las minorías étnicas y de los diplomáticos estadounidenses, afirma el periódico.

La segunda fase tendrá lugar después de que Irak haya formado un Gobierno estable e inclusivo y comprenderá el entrenamiento, consultas y suministro de armas para el Ejército iraquí, los milicianos kurdos y posiblemente las tribus suníes.

La tercera fase, la más difícil y controvertida políticamente, sería atacar y derrotar a los yihadistas en sus bases dentro de Siria. Esta última podría realizarse tras el fin del mandato de Barack Obama como presidente de EE.UU., indica el 'New York Times'.

Pero EE.UU. no está dispuesto a emprender un esfuerzo militar por sí solo, intenta liderarlo, afirma el periódico. Con el fin de formar una coalición contra los yihadistas, el secretario de Estado estadounidense, John Kerry, realizará próximamente una gira por Oriente Medio: una medida clave para el plan de EE.UU., ya que la posibilidad del envío de más tropas terrestres estadounidenses fue descartada ya en varias ocasiones.

Sin embargo, ciertas tribus suníes reaccionaron con reservas a los planes de EE.UU.: "Anteriormente luchamos contra Al Qaeda y la vencimos aquí, pero los estadounidenses instalaron a [primer ministro Nouri Al] Maliki, quien empezó a detener, matar y expulsar a los comandantes que luchaban contra Al Qaeda", afirmó uno de los líderes tribales citado por el periódico.

viernes, 5 de septiembre de 2014

Mientras tanto, en Riad...


A esta altura de la suaré todo el mundo sabe que los "militantes" del "Estado Islámico de Irak y Siria", también conocidos como "Estado Islámico de Irak y el Levante" y, últimamente, como "Estado Islámico" a secas, no son tan buenos como parecía en un principio y que más bien están resultando ser malííííísimas personas. Qué te digo, todos los diarios de Occidente salieron al unísono a denunciar que los tipos estos están haciendo en Irak lo que vienen haciendo en Siria desde hace dos años. Claro, cuando pasa en Siria no dicen nada, pero eso es para no preocupar a los ciudadanos del mundo con cosas feas, que ya tienen bastante con la inflación y la bolsa y todo eso, pero bueno. Por eso cuando aparecen artículos como este, del amigo Thierry Meyssan en Red Voltaire de ayer, a uno se le ponen los pelos de punta. Pero en fin, viste, los árabes son tipos rarísimos... o eran los musulmanes, o más bien los sunnitas, ni qué hablar de los chiítas. Má sí. 



Título: El gran viraje saudita

Texto: Durante los últimos 35 años, Arabia Saudita ha venido apoyando todos los movimientos yihadistas, incluyendo los más extremistas. Pero ahora Riad parece cambiar súbitamente de política. Al ver amenazada su propia existencia por la posibilidad de un ataque del Emirato Islámico (ex EIIL), Arabia Saudita ha dado la señal para la destrucción de esa organización. Pero, a pesar de las apariencias, el Emirato Islámico sigue disponiendo del respaldo de Turquía e Israel, países que comercializan el petróleo robado por ese grupo yihadista.



Elemento preliminar: el Emirato Islámico es una creación de Occidente

La unanimidad del Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU contra el Emirato Islámico y la adopción de la resolución 2170 no pasan de ser una imagen de fachada que no puede hacernos olvidar el respaldo estatal que el Emirato Islámico ha recibido y que aún sigue recibiendo.

Para referirnos únicamente a los recientes acontecimientos de Irak, todo el mundo ha podido observar que los hombres del Emirato Islámico entraron en ese país a bordo de columnas de Humvees, tan relucientes que parecían acabados de salir de las fábricas de la firma estadounidense American Motors Corporation, y con armamento ucraniano, igualmente acabado de fabricar. Fue con ese equipamiento que se apoderaron del armamento estadounidense del ejército iraquí. Y todo el mundo se sorprendió al ver que el Emirato Islámico disponía de administradores civiles capaces de hacerse cargo al momento de la administración de los territorios conquistados y de especialistas en propaganda capaces de divulgar sus acciones utilizando internet y la televisión, personal claramente formado en Fort Bragg.

Aunque la censura estadounidense impidió la difusión de información al respecto, a través de la agencia británica Reuters pudo conocerse la realización de una sesión secreta del Congreso de Estados Unidos donde se aprobó –en enero de 2014– el financiamiento y la entrega de armamento al Ejército Libre Sirio, al Frente Islámico, al Frente al-Nusra y al Emirato Islámico [entonces conocido como EIIL] hasta el próximo 30 de septiembre [1]. Unos días después, la televisión saudita Al-Arabiya se jactaba de que el verdadero jefe del Emirato Islámico era el príncipe saudita Abdul Rahman [2]. Más tarde, el 6 de febrero, el secretario del Departamento estadounidense de Seguridad de la Patria [Homeland Security] se reunía en Polonia con los principales ministros de Interior europeos para pedirles que mantuviesen a los yihadistas europeos en el Levante prohibiéndoles el regreso a sus países de origen. El verdadero objetivo de esa medida era garantizar que el Emirato Islámico contara con suficientes hombres para su ofensiva contra Irak [3]. Y, finalmente, a mediados de febrero un seminario de 2 días reunió a los miembros del Consejo de Seguridad Nacional de Estados Unidos con los jefes de los servicios secretos aliados implicados en Siria, probablemente para preparar la ofensiva del Emirato Islámico en Irak [4].

Es indignante observar como los medios de prensa internacionales han comenzado últimamente a denunciar los crímenes de los yihadistas en Irak, sin mencionar que se trata de los mismos actos de barbarie que vienen perpetrando ininterrumpidamente en Siria desde hace 3 años.

No son nuevos los degollamientos y las decapitaciones públicas ni tampoco las crucifixiones. Por ejemplo, en febrero de 2012, el emirato islámico creado en el barrio de Baba Amro –en la ciudad siria de Homs– creó un «tribunal religioso» que condenó más de 150 personas a ser degolladas, sin que esas muertes diesen lugar a ningún tipo de reacción de parte de las potencias occidentales ni de la ONU [5]. En mayo de 2013, el comandante de la Brigada al-Faruk del Ejército Sirio Libre (los famosos «moderados» que tanto defiende Occidente) difundió en internet un video donde se le veía mutilando el cuerpo de un soldado sirio y comiéndose su corazón. A pesar de tales atrocidades, en aquella época los occidentales seguían presentando a aquellos yihadistas como «opositores moderados», pero desesperados, que luchaban por la «democracia». La británica y flemática BBC incluso llegó a entrevistar al caníbal anteriormente mencionado para darle la oportunidad de justificar su acto de barbarie.

No cabe duda de que la diferencia que el ministro francés de Relaciones Exteriores Laurent Fabius establecía entre yihadistas «moderados» (el Ejército Sirio Libre y el Frente al-Nusra –o sea al-Qaeda– hasta inicios de 2013) y yihadistas «extremistas» (el mismo Frente al-Nusra, pero a partir de 2013, y el Emirato Islámico) es un mero truco de propaganda.

El caso del califa Ibrahim resulta perfectamente esclarecedor. En mayo de 2013, durante el encuentro del senador estadounidense John McCain con los jefes del Ejército Sirio Libre, este personaje era simultáneamente miembro del estado mayor «moderado» y líder de la facción «extremista» [6]. Asimismo, en una carta del 17 de enero de 2014, el general Salim Idriss, jefe del estado mayor del Ejército Sirio Libre, reconoce que Francia y Turquía le suministraban cargamentos de municiones, de las que una tercera parte estaba destinada al Ejército Sirio Libre mientras que los otros dos tercios iban a parar a manos de al-Qaeda a traves del «moderado» Ejército Sirio Libre. La delegación de Francia no se atrevió a cuestionar la autenticidad de ese documento, presentado al Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU por el embajador de Siria, Bachar Jaafari [7].

Sabiendo lo anterior, resulta evidente que durante el mes de agosto de 2014 se han producido cambios en la actitud de algunas potencias miembros de la OTAN y del Consejo de Cooperación del Golfo, que han pasado de un respaldo secreto –aunque masivo y permanente– a una franca hostilidad. ¿Por qué?



La doctrina Brzezinki del yihadismo

Es necesario remontarnos a hace 35 años atrás para comprender la importancia del viraje que está dando hoy Arabia Saudita –y quizás Estados Unidos. Desde 1979, Washington, instigado por el entonces consejero de seguridad nacional Zbignew Brzezinski, decide respaldar el islam político para contrarrestar la influencia soviética, apuesta a la que ya había recurrido anteriormente en Egipto, donde Estados Unidos respaldó a la Hermandad Musulmana para debilitar el gobierno de Gamal Abdel Nasser.

Brzezinski decidió iniciar una gran «revolución islámica» desde Afganistán –entonces bajo el régimen comunista de Nur Muhamed Taraki– e Irán, donde el propio Brzezinski organizó el regreso del imam Ruhollah Khomeiny. Según la visión de Brzezinski, aquella revolución islámica debía extenderse por el mundo árabe, arrasando a su paso con los movimientos nacionalistas vinculados a la URSS.

La operación alcanzó un éxito inesperado en Afganistán: los yihadistas de la Liga Anticomunista Mundial (WACL) [8], reclutados entre los miembros de la Hermandad Musulmana y encabezados por el anticomunista Osama ben Laden, emprendieron una campaña terrorista que llevó al gobierno afgano a reclamar la ayuda de los soviéticos. El Ejército Rojo entró en Afganistán, donde se empantanó durante 5 años, lo cual aceleró el derrumbe de la URSS.

Pero en Irán fue un desastre: Brzezinski se quedó estupefacto al descubrir que Khomeiny no era el hombre que le habían descrito –un viejo ayatola deseoso de recuperar las tierras confiscadas por el shah– sino un verdadero antiimperialista. Al darse cuenta, tardíamente, de que la palabra «islamista» no significaba lo mismo para todo el mundo, Brzezinski decidió establecer una diferencia entre los “buenos” sunnitas (colaboradores) y los “malos” chiitas (antiimperialistas) y poner la dirección de los primeros en manos de Arabia Saudita.

Finalmente, en el marco de aquella renovación de la alianza entre Washington y los Saud, el presidente estadounidense James Carter anunció, en su discurso sobre el Estado de la Unión pronunciado el 23 de febrero de 1980 que en lo adelante el acceso al petróleo del Golfo era para Estados Unidos un objetivo de seguridad nacional.

Desde aquel momento, los yihadistas recibieron la tarea de hacerse cargo de todos los golpes bajos contra los soviéticos (y posteriormente contra los rusos) y contra los regímenes árabes nacionalistas o recalcitrantes. Las cosas se complicaron durante el periodo transcurrido desde que se acusó a los yihadistas de haber fomentado y realizado los atentados del 11 de septiembre de 2001 hasta el anuncio de la supuesta muerte de Osama ben Laden en Pakistán (en mayo de 2011). Había que negar toda relación con los yihadistas y, al mismo tiempo, utilizarlos como pretexto para intervenir. Pero en 2011 las cosas se hicieron nuevamente más claras con la colaboración oficial entre los yihadistas y la OTAN contra los gobiernos de Libia y Siria.



El viraje saudita de agosto de 2014

Durante 35 años Arabia Saudita financió y armó todas las corrientes políticas musulmanas, a condición 

1) de que fueran sunnitas, 

2) de que afirmaran que el modelo económico de Estados Unidos es compatible con el islam y 

3) de que garantizaran que mantendrían cualquier contrato que su país hubiese firmado con Israel.

Durante 35 años, la inmensa mayoría de los sunnitas prefirió ignorar la complicidad entre los yihadistas y el imperialismo; se declaró solidaria con todo lo que estos hicieron y todo lo que les atribuyeron. Y también legitimó el wahabismo como una forma auténtica del islam, a pesar de las destrucciones de lugares sagrados en Arabia Saudita.

Sorprendida ante el inicio de la llamada «primavera árabe», a cuya preparación no había sido invitada, Arabia Saudita se inquietó al ver el papel que Washington confiaba a Qatar y a la Hermandad Musulmana. Así que Riad no tardó en entrar en competencia con Doha para servir de padrino a los yihadistas en Libia y, sobre todo, en Siria.

Posteriormente, el rey Abdallah acudió en ayuda de la economía egipcia cuando el general Abdel Fattah al-Sissi, ya convertido en presidente de Egipto, puso en manos de Riad y de los Emiratos Árabes Unidos los expedientes policiales de todos los miembros de la Hermandad Musulmana. Además, ya en el marco de la lucha contra la cofradía, en febrero de 2014, el general al-Sissi descubrió y reveló a los interesados el plan detallado de la Hermandad Musulmana para derrocar los gobiernos en Riad y Abu Dabi. En unos días, los conspiradores fueron arrestados y confesaron mientras que Arabia Saudita y los Emiratos Árabes Unidos amenazaban al padrino de la Hermandad Musulmana –Qatar– con destruirlo si no renunciaba de inmediato a seguir apoyando la cofradía.

Riad no tardó en descubrir que la gangrena también abarcaba el Emirato Islámico y que este último se disponía a atacar Arabia Saudita después de apoderarse de un tercio del territorio iraquí.

Los Emiratos Árabes Unidos y Egipto pulverizaron el candado ideológico pacientemente construido a lo largo de 35 años. El 11 de agosto, el gran imam de la universidad Al-Alzhar, Ahmad al-Tayyeb, condenaba severamente el Emirato Islámico y al-Qaeda. Lo mismo hizo, al día siguiente, el gran muftí de Egipto, Shawki Allam [9].

El 18 y el 22 de agosto, Abu Dabi bombardeó, con ayuda del Cairo, las posiciones de grupos terroristas en Trípoli, la capital libia. Dos Estados sunnitas se aliaban por primera vez en un ataque contra extremistas sunnitas en territorio de un tercer Estado sunnita. El blanco de los ataques fue una alianza en la que figuraba Abdelhakim Belhaj, el ex número 3 de al-Qaeda, nombrado gobernador militar de Trípoli por la OTAN después del derrocamiento de Kadhafi [10]. Hasta ahora parece que esas acciones fueron emprendidas sin que Washington fuese informado previamente.

El 19 de agosto, el gran muftí de Arabia Saudita, jeque Abdul-Aziz Al al-Sheikh, se decidía –por fin– a calificar a los yihadistas del Emirato Islámico y de al-Qaeda de «enemigos número 1 del islam» [11].



Las consecuencias del viraje saudita

El viraje de Arabia Saudita ha sido tan repentino que los actores regionales no han tenido tiempo de adaptarse a él y ahora se ven en posiciones contradictorias en diferentes aspectos. En general, los aliados de Washington condenan las acciones del Emirato Islámico en Irak, pero no en Siria.

Más sorprendente aún. Aunque el Consejo de Seguridad de la ONU condenó el Emirato Islámico en su declaración presidencial del 28 de julio y en su resolución 2170 del 15 de agosto, es evidente que la organización yihadista sigue recibiendo apoyo de varios Estados: en franca violación de los principios que esos textos invocan y establecen, el petróleo iraquí robado por el Emirato Islámico transita a través de Turquía, allí –más exactamente en el puerto de Ceyhan– se carga en barcos cisterna que hacen escala en Israel, de donde parten nuevamente hacia Europa. Por el momento no se mencionan los nombres de las empresas involucradas, pero es evidente la responsabilidad de Turquía e Israel.

Por su parte, Qatar, país que alberga numerosas personalidades de la Hermandad Musulmana, sigue afirmando que ya no tiene nada que ver con el Emirato Islámico.

En conferencias de prensa previamente coordinadas, los ministros de Relaciones Exteriores de Rusia y Siria, Serguei Lavrov y Walid Muallem, llamaron a la formación de una coalición internacional contra el terrorismo. Pero Estados Unidos, mientras sigue preparando con los británicos la realización de operaciones terrestres en territorio sirio (la «Fuerza de Intervención Negra» [12]), ha rechazado aliarse a la República Árabe Siria y se obstina en exigir la renuncia del presidente sirio Bachar al-Assad.

El choque que acaba de poner fin a 35 años de política saudita ahora se transforma en enfrentamiento entre Riad y Ankara. Ya en este momento, el PKK –partido kurdo presente en Turquía y Siria, formación que Washington y la Unión Europea aún tienen clasificada como una organización terrorista– está recibiendo apoyo del Pentágono contra el Emirato Islámico. En efecto, contrariamente a las afirmaciones equívocas de la prensa atlantista, no son los peshmergas del Kurdistán iraquí sino los combatientes del PKK provenientes de Turquía y Siria quienes rechazaron durante los últimos días las embestidas del Emirato Islámico, con apoyo de la aviación estadounidense.



Conclusión provisional

Es difícil saber si la actual situación es real o un simple montaje. ¿Estados  Unidos tiene realmente intención de destruir el Emirato Islámico que ayudó a construir y que se le ha ido de las manos o sólo quiere debilitarlo y conservarlo como instrumento político regional? ¿Ankara y Tel Aviv apoyan el Emirato Islámico por cuenta de Washington o contra Washington? ¿O será que están utilizando las disensiones internas existentes en Estados Unidos? ¿Se atreverán los Saud, con tal de salvar su monarquía, a aliarse con Irán y Siria, poniendo así en peligro el dispositivo de protección de Israel?



NOTAS:

[1] «Congreso de Estados Unidos vota en secreto envío de armas a oposición siria», Red Voltaire, 29 de enero de 2014.

[2] «Un príncipe saudita al mando del Emirato Islámico en Irak y el Levante»,Red Voltaire, 3 de febrero de 2014.

[3] «Siria se convierte en “tema de seguridad interna” para Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea», Red Voltaire, 8 de febrero de 2014.

[4] «Washington coordina la guerra secreta contra Siria», Red Voltaire, 21 de febrero de 2014.

[5] «The Burial Brigade of Homs: An Executioner for Syria’s Rebels Tells His Story», por Ulrike Putz, Der Spiegel, 29 de marzo de 2012. Versión en francésin «Les dernières manœuvres de Washington et de ses alliés européens, turcs et arabes», por Pierre Khalaf, New Orient News, Réseau Voltaire, 10 de abril de 2012.

[6] «John McCain, el organizador de la “primavera árabe” y el Califa», por Thierry Meyssan, Red Voltaire, 18 de agosto de 2014.

[7] «Resolución 2165 y debates (ayuda humanitaria en Siria)», Red Voltaire, 14 de julio de 2014.

[8] «La Liga Anticomunista Mundial, internacional del crimen», por Thierry Meyssan, Red Voltaire, 20 de enero de 2005.

[9] «Le grand mufti d’Égypte condamne l’État islamique en Irak», Radio Vatican, 13 de agosto de 2014.

[10] «Cómo los hombres de Al-Qaeda llegaron al poder en Libia», por Thierry Meyssan, Red Voltaire, 7 de septiembre de 2011.

[11] «Déclaration du mufti du Royaume sur l’extrémisme», Agence de presse saoudienne, 19 de agosto de 2014.

[12] «SAS and US special forces forming hunter killer unit to ’smash Islamic State’», por Aaron Sharp, The Sunday People (The Mirror), 23 de agosto de 2014.

jueves, 4 de septiembre de 2014

Futuro mediato

Águila bicéfala, ancla y martillo, flechas y espigas; bandera de Nueva Rusia

Surfeando por la web nos topamos con este excelente análisis de la situación en Ucrania realizado por Alexander Mercouris. Para los que quieran saber qué puede pasar de acá a fin de año y más allá.

Título: The Ukraine - entering the end game

Texto: We have had an extraordinary succession of diplomatic move and counter move over the last two days.

1. Yesterday was the false announcement by Russian media agencies of supposed proposals by the NAF that would have allowed the DPR/LPR to remain if only nominally part of the Ukraine.

2. This morning we had the equally false announcement by Poroshenko's Secretariat that he had agreed a ceasefire with Putin.

3. This afternoon the Kremlin published its plan for a ceasefire. Whilst this purports to be limited to its technical aspects in reality it effectively gives the DPR/LPR what they have demanded all along and since before the ATO was launched, which is the removal of all Ukrainian forces from their territory. The Kremlin's ceasefire proposal throws in a no fly zone for good measure.

This flurry of announcements suggests moves in an end game, which is what I think we are looking at. So what is going on? First of all it bears reiteration that none of this would be happening were it not for:

1. The NAF's battlefield victories and the not so slow motion collapse of the Ukrainian army. Lugansk and Donetsk airports have now definitely fallen. The very latest reports suggest that Mariupol is totally surrounded and that Kiev has only the remnant of right wing militia battalions there and that it is likely to fall or be liberated by the NAF very soon. There are reports of more and more Ukrainian soldiers surrendering or deserting and the hoard of captured weapons in the NAF's hands is growing to prodigious levels. As the junta's military gets weaker the NAF grows stronger. Though Putin has said (echoing comments made a week ago by Zakharchenko - see below my discussion of his press conference on this Page) that the NAF has no plan to advance beyond the boundaries of the DPR/LPR, the main force of the Ukrainian army is now actually concentrated on the territory of the DPR/LPR. If the Ukrainian army disintegrates, which is now looking distinctly possible, it is not clear what organised military force the junta has left to bar an NAF advance on Kharkov, Odessa or even Kiev.

2. As I explained a few days ago (see below on this Page) the true story of the recent EU summit is that for all the talk of sanctions the US/EU has emphatically ruled out the one thing that might at the risk of a very dangerous escalation have made a difference to this situation. This was the possibility of western military intervention in the conflict to bail the junta out. Please note that by "western military intervention" I mean boots on the ground and air strikes. As Mark Sleboda has absolutely correctly pointed out talk of weapons being supplied to the junta is a red herring. The reality is the junta has been getting weapons for weeks from old Soviet stocks in eastern Europe and has never been short of weapons to fight this war.

Given the military disaster Poroshenko, the junta and their western sponsors have no realistic option other than to look for a diplomatic way out. As I said a few days ago (see below on this Page) that was what all the talk at the EU summit of the need for ceasefires and of "the situation being close to the point of no return" was all about. With the economy in freefall and the army disintegrating further prolongation of the war risks the junta's and the Ukraine's collapse (about this however see below).

Ending the war for the junta is however something a lot easier said than done. Having promised victory and having spurned three opportunities for a political settlement and a ceasefire (on 21st February 2014, 17th April 2014 and 2nd July 2014) the junta and its western backers now face the critical problem of how they are going to sell news of their ending of the war in conditions of total defeat to the Maidan movement and to the Ukrainian people as a whole.

The way they are trying to do this and to square this circle is as follows:

1. Firstly, they are trying to preserve the fiction that their war is with Russia rather than with the people of the Donbas and the NAF. It is far easier to admit defeat at the hands of Russia than at what began as a lightly armed self defence force just 4 months ago; and

2. Secondly by trying to achieve through diplomacy a peace settlement that preserves the appearance of Ukrainian sovereignty over the Donbas thereby letting the junta claim that the integrity of the Ukrainian state has been preserved.

If one understands this then the strange diplomatic moves we have seen over the last two days begin to make sense.

The reason Poroshenko said falsely that he had agreed a ceasefire with Putin is because (1) he needs a ceasefire in order to avoid a total disaster and (2) he cannot declare a ceasefire unilaterally since that would too obviously be a surrender and (3) he does not want to agree a ceasefire with the NAF since that would demolish his claim that his war is not with the NAF but with Russia.

The strange attempt yesterday to pretend that the NAF is merely seeking autonomy within a confederated Ukraine when the NAF leadership has repeatedly made clear over the last few weeks that it is seeking full independence from the Ukraine was clearly intended by someone to help Kiev save face by pretending that some sort of deal is possible that would preserve Ukrainian sovereignty over the Donbas. That these reports came from Russian news agencies suggests

(1) that there is a faction within the Russian government or Russia's political elite that still wants that solution presumably in order to limit the damage to Russia's relations with the west; or

(2) that there is still a body of opinion within the elite of the Donbas itself (possibly led by Rinat Akhmetov) that also still wants to maintain a link, however tenuous, to Kiev and which also is trying to help the junta save face and which still has some influence within the Donbas leadership or at any rate the NAF's negotiating team; or

(3) that these reports originated with the Lukashenko government which is hosting the talks in Minsk and which for various reasons also wants to help the junta save face whilst preserving at least the appearance of a united Ukraine.
Of course these three possibilities are not mutually exclusive and it is possible and even likely that all are true.

However the important point is that Putin is having none of it. He has made it absolutely clear over the course of the day that he did not agree a ceasefire with Poroshenko and that if Poroshenko does genuinely want a ceasefire he must agree it not with Russia but with the NAF. By publishing his ceasefire proposals Putin has also made clear that he supports the NAF's demand for a total withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Donbas as a condition for a ceasefire. Indirectly, by limiting himself to technical discussions about a ceasefire, Putin has also made clear that he and Russia are not prepared to get involved in political discussions about the Donbas's future and that as he previously said in Minsk this is something that will have to be negotiated directly with the NAF instead. Those who expect Putin to put pressure on the NAF to accept something less than full independence are on the evidence of the last few weeks likely to be disappointed.

In other words Putin is denying Poroshenko any hope of saving face by stripping him of even the appearance of wriggle room. That explains the dismayed reaction in Kiev to today's developments with all the wild talk from Yatsenyuk & co of "frozen conflicts" that we have been hearing over the course of the day. It also explains the desperate attempt to put pressure on Putin by Poroshenko's western backers by suspending completion of the Mistral sale.

What happens next? I do not expect Putin to retreat from the line he is now publicly taking whatever Poroshenko or the west may want and whatever further sanctions the EU announces on Friday. Certainly suspension of the Mistral sale will not impress him. It seems to me that there are now two possibilities:

(1) There will be no formal ceasefire agreement of any kind, the Ukrainian military collapse will continue and the NAF will drive the Ukrainians out of the Donbas by itself. At that point the fighting will finally stop; or

(2) The junta will accept Putin's ceasefire proposals and will start negotiations with the NAF.

Politically it is much easier for the junta to do (1). However the consequences of that course should be clear. In the absence of a formal ceasefire agreement the Ukraine faces the almost certain prospect of a continued cut off of Russian gas at a time when it has also lost access to its coalfields in the Donbas and has no realistic alternative sources of energy and no foreign exchange to buy it in any event. Gazprom has again made clear today (and the timing is surely not an accident) that it is not prepared to consider the "compromise proposals" made by the European Commission. It insists on full payment of all gas arrears and has said that it will not in any event go below the price it previously offered, which is $385.

In the absence of a diplomatic settlement the Ukraine therefore faces likely economic collapse possibly within a matter of weeks or at the most months. Any realistic assessment of the situation therefore points to (2) as the only viable way forward. A grasp of reality is however something the Maidan movement has at all times been short of. Because of the nature of the regime in Kiev and of the Maidan movement I expect the junta if left to itself to opt for (1). The only way that might change would be if the Europeans finally screwed up the will and courage to do that which they have up to now consistently failed to do, which is put pressure on Kiev to agree to (2). As I see little prospect of that, I expect (1).

Looking further forward what is the future of the Ukraine and of the DPR/LPR? Though it may take time for reality to sink in, the disaster in the east, the loss of the Donbas and the gathering economic crisis will be a shattering blow to the Maidan movement. Not only has it been defeated on the battlefield but it must also face the reality that (as with Georgia in 2008) its western "friends" for all their brave talk in the final analysis have abandoned it. It must also face the return of tens of thousands of traumatised and embittered young men who have experienced the humiliation of defeat. As was the case with Saakashvili, though to a much greater extent, politically speaking it will be downhill for the Maidan movement from now on. I do not know how long the process will take but its eventual collapse is likely only a matter of time.

Beyond that my belief remains that if the Donbas manages to secede in time Kharkov, Odessa, Kherson and the rest of Novorossia will follow. If there is an economic collapse in the next few weeks or months as I expect that may happen sooner rather than later. As for what would happen to whatever rump Ukraine was left, shorn of the Donbas and possibly of its remaining eastern provinces and facing economic disaster, its prospects are bleak. Certainly its chances of joining NATO or the EU any time soon are I would say nil. Trapped in political limbo, there is a chance that in time more rational political forces may emerge that will seek some sort of rapprochement with Russia. How long that will take I do not know.

As for the DPR/LPR, they will surely become de facto part of Russia with which they will quickly integrate economically (eg. by adopting the rouble) even if for a time they remain nominally independent of it.

Adicciones

Vía Zero Hedge llegamos a esta nota, sobre la pesadilla sin fin que es la industria de los antidepresivos y calmantes en el Imperio. Esta gente maneja el mundo, chicos.

Título: 30 Million Americans On Antidepressants And 21 Other Facts About America's Endless Pharmaceutical Nightmare

Texto: Has there ever been a nation more hooked on drugs than the United States?  And I am not just talking about illegal drugs – the truth is that the number of Americans addicted to legal drugs is far greater than the number of Americans addicted to illegal drugs.  As you will read about below, more than 30 million Americans are currently on antidepressants and doctors in the U.S. wrote more than 250 million prescriptions for painkillers last year.  Sadly, most people got hooked on these drugs very innocently.  They trusted that their doctors would never prescribe something for them that would be harmful, and they trusted that the federal government would never approve any drugs that were not safe.  And once the drug companies get you hooked, they often have you for life. 

You see, the reality of the matter is that some of these “legal drugs” are actually some of the most addictive substances on the entire planet.  And when they start raising the prices on those drugs, there isn’t much that the addicts can do about it.  It is a brutally efficient business model, and the pharmaceutical industry guards their territory fiercely.  Very powerful people will often do some really crazy things when there are hundreds of billions of dollars at stake.  The following are 22 facts about America’s endless pharmaceutical nightmare that everyone should know…

1 According to the New York Times, more than 30 million Americans are currently taking antidepressants.

2 The rate of antidepressant use among middle aged women is far higher than for the population as a whole.  At this point, one out of every four women in their 40s and 50s is taking an antidepressant medication.

3 Americans account for about five percent of the global population, but we buy more than 50 percent of the pharmaceutical drugs.

4 Americans also consume a whopping 80 percent of all prescription painkillers.

5 It is hard to believe, but doctors in the United States write 259 million prescriptions for painkillers each year.  Prescription painkillers are some of the most addictive legal drugs, and our doctors are serving as enablers for millions up0n millions of Americans that find themselves hooked on drugs that they cannot kick.

6 Overall, pharmaceutical drug use in America is at an all-time high.  According to a study conducted by the Mayo Clinic, nearly 70 percent of all Americans are on at least one prescription drug, and 20 percent of all Americans are on at least five prescription drugs.

7 According to the CDC, approximately 9 out of every 10 Americans that are at least 60 years old say that they have taken at least one prescription drug within the last month.

8 In 2010, the average teen in the United States was taking 1.2 central nervous system drugs.  Those are the kinds of drugs which treat conditions such as ADHD and depression.

9 A very disturbing Government Accountability Office report found that approximately one-third of all foster children in the United States are on at least one psychiatric drug.

10 An astounding 95 percent of the “experimental medicines” that the pharmaceutical industry produces are found not to be safe and are never approved.  Of the remaining 5 percent that are approved, we often do not find out that they are deadly to us until decades later.

11 One study discovered that mothers that took antidepressants during pregnancy were four times more likely to have a baby that developed an autism spectrum disorder.

12 It has been estimated that prescription drugs kill approximately 200,000 people in the United States every single year.

13 An American dies from an unintentional prescription drug overdose every 19 minutes.  According to Dr. Sanjay Gupta, accidental prescription drug overdose is “the leading cause of acute preventable death for Americans”.

14 In the United States today, prescription painkillers kill more Americans than heroin and cocaine combined.

15 According to the CDC, approximately three quarters of a million people a year are rushed to emergency rooms in the United States because of adverse reactions to pharmaceutical drugs.

16 The number of prescription drug overdose deaths in the United States is five times higherthan it was back in 1980.

17 A survey conducted for the National Institute on Drug Abuse found that more than 15 percent of all U.S. high school seniors abuse prescription drugs.

18 More than 26 million women over the age of 25 say that they are “using prescription medications for unintended uses“.

19 If all of these antidepressants are helping, then why are more Americans killing themselves?  The suicide rate for Americans between the ages of 35 and 64 increased by nearly 30 percent between 1999 and 2010.  The number of Americans that die by suicide is now greater than the number of Americans that die as a result of car accidents every year.

20 Antidepressant use has been linked to mass shootings in America over and over and over again, and yet the mainstream media is eerily quiet about this. Is it because they don’t want to threaten one of their greatest sources of advertising revenue?

21 The amount of money that the pharmaceutical industry is raking in is astronomical.  It has been reported that Americans spent more than 280 billion dollars on prescription drugs during 2013.

miércoles, 3 de septiembre de 2014

Cese del fuego


Una nota de Rodrigo Fernández para El País da cuenta de una serie de medidas acordadas entre Ucrania y Rusia (y, suponemos, Nueva Rusia, aunque de esto no se habla) para "facilitar la paz". Sí, chicos, la mano viene ambigua, pero es lo que hay. Uno supone por qué: para que los chongos de Kiev y la NATO no queden tan mal parados.

Título: Ucrania y Rusia acuerdan los pasos para facilitar la paz en las provincias rebeldes

Epígrafe: Kiev matiza su declaración sobre un pacto para el alto el fuego tras el desmentido de Moscú.

Texto: Los presidentes de Ucrania, Petró Poroshenko, y de Rusia, Vladímir Putin, han mantenido una conversación telefónica en la que han acordado "los pasos que facilitarán el establecimiento de la paz" en las provincias separatistas de Donetsk y Lugansk, según ha matizado la presidencia ucrania, que ha tenido que rectificar su comunicado inicial, en el que anunciaba el acuerdo entre ambos mandatarios para un "alto el fuego permanente" en el este de Ucrania.

Kiev da así marcha atrás en su anuncio inicial, después de que el portavoz de Putin, Dimitri Peskov, hubiera negado categóricamente un acuerdo de alto el fuego entre Poroshenko y Putin, ya que Rusia "no es parte en el conflicto". Según el nuevo comunicado publicado en la web de la Presidencia ucrania, durante la conversación los dos mandatarios llegaron a un acuerdo sobre "el régimen del alto el fuego" en la región de Donbas, donde se encuentran Donetsk y Lugansk, y ambos coincidieron "sobre los pasos que facilitarán el establecimiento de la paz". Por su parte, el presidente Putin ha anunciado ante la prensa un plan para alcanzar la paz y ha asegurado que se podría "cimentar" este viernes durante la reunión del grupo de contacto de Ucrania, que reúne a representantes ucranios, separatistas y prorrusos con la mediación de la OSCE.

"Putin y Poroshenko han discutido en realidad los pasos que permitirían un alto el fuego entre la milicia y las Fuerzas Armadas ucranianas", ha señalado el portavoz, citado por RIA Novosti, antes de la nueva versión de la conversación telefónica ofrecida por Kiev. "Rusia no puede acordar físicamente un alto el fuego porque no es parte en el conflicto", ha incidido Peskov.

Previamente, el Kremlin había indicado que los dos presidentes habían abordado "la crisis militar y humanitaria en Ucrania" en su conversación telefónica. "Intercambiaron sus puntos de vista sobre las medidas prioritarias para detener el derramamiento de sangre en el sureste del país", había señalado Peskov, aclarando que el "punto de vista (de Putin) sobre las posibles salidas a esta situación de crisis coincide ampliamente con el del presidente ucraniano". Horas después, el presidente Putin ha anunciado un plan de siete puntos - que contempla el cese de hostilidades, intercambio de prisioneros, observación internacional y el acceso de ayuda humanitaria – para “frenar el derramamiento de sangre y estabilizar la situación” en Ucrania. "Creo que se puede alcanzar y cimentar un acuerdo final entre las autoridades de Kiev y el sureste de Ucrania este viernes 5 de septiembre, durante el encuentro del grupo de contacto", aseguró Putin durante una comparecencia de prensa en Ulan Bator, capital de Mongolia.

Rusia sostiene que lo que sucede en el este de Ucrania es un conflicto interno de ese país y que Kiev debe negociar con los rebeldes. Pero Moscú venía presionando desde hace tiempo porque se pactara una tregua sin condiciones previas y no como la que ofrecía el Gobierno de Ucrania, que exigía que, como paso previo, los separatistas depusieran las armas.

A un día del inicio de la cumbre de la OTAN, el ministerio de Defensa ruso anunció nuevas maniobras militares este mes de septiembre en Rusia por parte de las fuerzas de misiles estratégicos, responsables del arsenal nuclear de largo alcance. Los ejercicios se desarrollarán en la República del Altái, fronteriza con Kazajistán y Mongolia. Un oficial de estas fuerzas, Dimitri Andreyev, ha informado a la agencia RIA Novosti de una implicación sin precedentes de la fuerza aérea, con la presencia de aviones de reconocimiento Su-24MR y cazas de interceptación MiG-31. En paralelo, el ministerio de Defensa polaco aseguró que las maniobras militares Rapid Trident 14, encabezadas por EE UU y con la colaboración de países de la OTAN, se desarrollarán en Ucrania entre el 13 y 26 de septiembre en suelo ucranio, cerca de la frontera con Polonia. Estas maniobras anuales estaban previstas para julio pero fueron aplazadas tras el recrudecimiento de la crisis ucrania.

La situación de los últimos días en el frente de combate, que ha estado marcada por una exitosa ofensiva militar de los rebeldes, probablemente ha convencido a Poroshenko que necesita dar un respiro a sus tropas y pactar un alto el fuego que le permita realizar su campaña electoral sin tener como telón de fondo un Ejército en retirada. El presidente ha decidido disolver el Parlamento y ha convocado para el 26 de octubre próximo a nuevos comicios, que debe aprovechar para crear su propio movimiento. Hasta ahora, Poroshenko carece de partido y, por lo tanto, dependía de las otras fuerzas que lo apoyaban para impulsar las leyes en la Rada Suprema. Ese apoyo era, en cualquier caso, insuficiente para imponer la reforma que desea, que incluye modificaciones constitucionales que den mayores facultades al presidente.

Y mientras Poroshenko parece tratar de rebajar la tensión, el primer ministro, Arseni Yatseniuk, ha denunciado que Rusia es un "Estado terrorista" y ha anunciado la próxima construcción de un "muro" en la frontera común para crear un "verdadero" límite entre los dos países. Yatseniuk, que ha culpado a Rusia del conflicto en el este de Ucrania, ha asegurado que el plan de paz anunciado por Putin es un intento de engañar a Occidente y de sortear las sanciones. "El verdadero plan de Putin es destruir Ucrania y restablecer la Unión Soviética", advirtió Yatseniuk en un comunicado.

En el frente de combate, los enfrentamientos por el control del aeropuerto de Donetsk continuaron en la mañana del miércoles, y los rebeldes afirmaron haber abatido un nuevo caza SU-25. Un representante de la autoproclamada República Popular de Donetsk comentó que tiene serias dudas de que todos los destacamentos que participan en la operación militar contra los rebeldes acepten el alto el fuego. El problema, como explicó el portavoz del servicio de información internacional de Ministerio de Defensa de los separatistas, Vladislav Brig, es que "Poroshenko no controla a los batallones de castigo". Poco después, el viceprimer ministro de Donetsk, Vladímir Antyufeyev, manifestó precisamente, en declaraciones recogidas por Reuters, que el alto el fuego pasa por la retirada de las tropas ucranias de la zona.

Mientras, se confirmó la muerte del fotógrafo ruso Andréi Stenin, con el que se había perdido contacto el 5 de agosto. El reportero gráfico pereció, a juzgar por los datos de que se dispone, cuando un proyectil impactó el auto en el que viajaba con otras personas, todas las cuales quedaron carbonizadas. Anteriormente, habían llegado noticias contradictorias sobre la suerte corrida por Stenin y, después de las declaraciones de un asesor del ministro del Interior ucranio, se creyó que estaba en manos de los servicios de seguridad, lo que luego fue desmentido.

***

Ahora pasemos al “plan de paz”. En realidad, es un alto el fuego. Veamos:

El líder ruso explicó a la prensa que esbozó su plan de solución de la crisis ucrania durante el vuelo a Mongolia, donde se encuentra en visita oficial. Putin considera que su enfoque y el del presidente Piotr Poroshenko son muy similares y que un plan definitivo podría acordarse este viernes. Estas son las medidas, según la traducción de Russia Today.

1. "Primero, las Fuerzas Armadas y las unidades militares de las milicias del Sureste de Ucrania deben parar las operaciones de asalto en las regiones de Donetsk y Lugansk".

2. "Segundo, las unidades armadas de los cuerpos de fuerza de Ucrania deben ser retiradas a una distancia que excluya la posibilidad de ataques con artillería y distintos sistemas de misiles contra zonas pobladas".

3. "Tercero, es preciso asegurar con observadores internacionales objetivos que ambas partes respeten el alto el fuego y hacer un seguimiento de la situación en la zona de seguridad".

4. "En cuarto lugar, hay que excluir el uso de aviones de combate contra la población civil y los puntos poblados de la zona de conflicto".

5. "Como quinta medida organizar un intercambio de personas detenidas con el uso de la fuerza de acuerdo con la fórmula cambiar todos por todos y sin condiciones previas".

6. "Sexto: abrir corredores humanitarios para permitir el movimiento de los refugiados y la entrega de suministros humanitarios a las ciudades y otras localidades de Donbas: las provincias de Donetsk y Lugansk".

7. "Y, por último, el séptimo paso tiene como objetivo posibilitar que equipos de técnicos se desplacen a las localidades de Donbass afectadas para restaurar las infraestructuras y servicios destruidos".

***

Y ahora un poquito sobre las causas de todo esto. Leemos en Moon of Alabama (http://www.moonofalabama.org):

Título: Ukraine: War, For Now, Over And NATO Still In Decline

Texto: There is only little news of new developments out of east-Ukraine. The insurgents kicked the Ukrainian troops out of the airport in Lughansk and the Ukrainian troops at the Donetsk airport are said to be confined in a basement and will have to negotiate their surrender.

According to Spiegel NATO generals assess (in German) that Ukraine has lost the war. It is out of material in decent shape and out of enough soldiers with the moral to successfully fight for the oligarchs. But that does not mean the fighting is over. Obama may still decide to double down and that destroying Ukraine -like Afghanistan, Libya and Syria- by prolonging the conflict is in U.S. "interests".

The "western" financed Kyiv Post is lamenting that the Ukrainian president Porochenko did not keep the promises he made before he got elected. That snub may well be a sign that his time is already over. The current Ukrainian campaign of claiming that Russia has "invaded" Ukraine is making his position weaker. Apparently all those T-90 tanks only fly in by night and their cloaking devices prevent any picture of them appearing anywhere.

Putin said somewhere that if Russia would really invade Ukraine it would take 14 days to get Kiev. "Western" media claimed that was a "threat". It was rather a somewhat pessimistic statement of fact. Kiev would probably fall in four days though preparing the victory parade may indeed take a bit longer.

The United Nation has found that 1 million Ukrainians have fled from their homes, more than 800,000 of them to Russia. The Ukrainian "Anti-Terrorist-Operation" is apparently a campaign of ethnic cleansing. But as that campaign for now comes to an end the population movement may well reverse.

There will hopefully now be some negotiated solution which will likely end in a federalized Ukraine with great autonomy for the federal states. Ukraine as a nation, if that has ever existed at all, is over. Ukraine as a confederation of states is still a possibility.

The sad reality is that such a development was foreseeable and indeed in detail foreseen. The whole war was completely unnecessary.

NATO will get some temporary propaganda push out of the conflict but I do not expect any longterm change in its downward trajectory. Defense budgets will not increase and the newly announced rapid reaction force for east Europe is at least the third version of such an multinational emergency force concept. These never can work as their activation still depends on the the lengthy political process NATO needs to go to war. Such forces also depend on rotating "pledged" units by member states and, as experience has shown, many such units get "pledged" even when they are not available or incapable to fight.

After this conflict the loss of credibility of NATO will likely be greater than its leaders today anticipate. Showing off satellite pictures even a naive can recognize as irrelevant and propagandizing an "invasion" when obviously none happened will leave marks. Top that with the catastrophic results in Libya and the strategic loss in Afghanistan and there is little left of NATO that future taxpayers might want to support.

martes, 2 de septiembre de 2014

Memo para Angela



En los sitios web que solemos visitar está circulando una carta, aparentemente escrita por ex oficiales y veteranos de la inteligencia estadounidense, dirigida a la Canciller de Alemania, Angela Merkel. De ser cierta, confirmaría (1) el estado de rebelión que existe en el seno mismo de la dirigencia del Imperio; (2) lo cerca que estamos de una guerra global desatada por la NATO; (3) por último, lo desesperantemente imbéciles que son los europeos, si es que necesitan que, a estas alturas, les aclaren de qué va todo esto.

Transcribimos lo que sigue tal cual aparece en el sitio web Zero Hedge (http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-09-01/ex-nsa-director-us-intelligence-veterans-write-open-letter-merkel-avoid-all-out-ukra):

Título: Ex-NSA Director, US Intelligence Veterans Write Open Letter To Merkel To Avoid All-Out Ukraine War

Texto: Alarmed at the anti-Russian hysteria sweeping Washington, and the specter of a new Cold War, U.S. intelligence veterans one of whom is none other than William Binney, the former senior NSA crypto-mathematician who back in March 2012 blew the whistle on the NSA's spying programs more than a year before Edward Snowden, took the unusual step of sending the following memo dated August 30 to German Chancellor Merkel challenging the reliability of Ukrainian and U.S. media claims about a Russian "invasion."

MEMORANDUM FOR: Angela Merkel, Chancellor of Germany
 

FROM: Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS)
 

SUBJECT: Ukraine and NATO

We the undersigned are longtime veterans of U.S. intelligence. We take the unusual step of writing this open letter to you to ensure that you have an opportunity to be briefed on our views prior to the NATO summit on September 4-5.

You need to know, for example, that accusations of a major Russian "invasion" of Ukraine appear not to be supported by reliable intelligence. Rather, the "intelligence" seems to be of the same dubious, politically "fixed" kind used 12 years ago to "justify" the U.S.-led attack on Iraq. We saw no credible evidence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq then; we see no credible evidence of a Russian invasion now. Twelve years ago, former Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, mindful of the flimsiness of the evidence on Iraqi WMD, refused to join in the attack on Iraq. In our view, you should be appropriately suspicions of charges made by the US State Department and NATO officials alleging a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

President Barack Obama tried yesterday to cool the rhetoric of his own senior diplomats and the corporate media, when he publicly described recent activity in the Ukraine, as "a continuation of what’s been taking place for months now … it’s not really a shift."

Obama, however, has only tenuous control over the policymakers in his administration – who, sadly, lack much sense of history, know little of war, and substitute anti-Russian invective for a policy. One year ago, hawkish State Department officials and their friends in the media very nearly got Mr. Obama to launch a major attack on Syria based, once again, on "intelligence" that was dubious, at best.

Largely because of the growing prominence of, and apparent reliance on, intelligence we believe to be spurious, we think the possibility of hostilities escalating beyond the borders of Ukraine has increased significantly over the past several days. More important, we believe that this likelihood can be avoided, depending on the degree of judicious skepticism you and other European leaders bring to the NATO summit next week.

Experience With Untruth

Hopefully, your advisers have reminded you of NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen’s checkered record for credibility. It appears to us that Rasmussen’s speeches continue to be drafted by Washington. This was abundantly clear on the day before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq when, as Danish Prime Minister, he told his Parliament: "Iraq has weapons of mass destruction. This is not something we just believe. We know."

Photos can be worth a thousand words; they can also deceive. We have considerable experience collecting, analyzing, and reporting on all kinds of satellite and other imagery, as well as other kinds of intelligence. Suffice it to say that the images released by NATO on August 28 provide a very flimsy basis on which to charge Russia with invading Ukraine. Sadly, they bear a strong resemblance to the images shown by Colin Powell at the UN on February 5, 2003 that, likewise, proved nothing.

That same day, we warned President Bush that our former colleague analysts were "increasingly distressed at the politicization of intelligence" and told him flatly, "Powell’s presentation does not come close" to justifying war. We urged Mr. Bush to "widen the discussion … beyond the circle of those advisers clearly bent on a war for which we see no compelling reason and from which we believe the unintended consequences are likely to be catastrophic."

Consider Iraq today. Worse than catastrophic. Although President Vladimir Putin has until now showed considerable reserve on the conflict in the Ukraine, it behooves us to remember that Russia, too, can "shock and awe." In our view, if there is the slightest chance of that kind of thing eventually happening to Europe because of Ukraine, sober-minded leaders need to think this through very carefully.

If the photos that NATO and the US have released represent the best available "proof" of an invasion from Russia, our suspicions increase that a major effort is under way to fortify arguments for the NATO summit to approve actions that Russia is sure to regard as provocative. Caveat emptor is an expression with which you are no doubt familiar. Suffice it to add that one should be very cautious regarding what Mr. Rasmussen, or even Secretary of State John Kerry, are peddling.

We trust that your advisers have kept you informed regarding the crisis in Ukraine from the beginning of 2014, and how the possibility that Ukraine would become a member of NATO is anathema to the Kremlin. According to a February 1, 2008 cable (published by WikiLeaks) from the US embassy in Moscow to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, US Ambassador William Burns was called in by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, who explained Russia’s strong opposition to NATO membership for Ukraine.

Lavrov warned pointedly of "fears that the issue could potentially split the country in two, leading to violence or even, some claim, civil war, which would force Russia to decide whether to intervene." Burns gave his cable the unusual title, "NYET MEANS NYET: RUSSIA’S NATO ENLARGEMENT REDLINES," and sent it off to Washington with IMMEDIATE precedence. Two months later, at their summit in Bucharest NATO leaders issued a formal declaration that "Georgia and Ukraine will be in NATO."

Just yesterday, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk used his Facebook page to claim that, with the approval of Parliament that he has requested, the path to NATO membership is open. Yatsenyuk, of course, was Washington’s favorite pick to become prime minister after the February 22 coup d’etat in Kiev. "Yats is the guy," said Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland a few weeks before the coup, in an intercepted telephone conversation with US Ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt. You may recall that this is the same conversation in which Nuland said, "Fuck the EU."

Timing of the Russian "Invasion"

The conventional wisdom promoted by Kiev just a few weeks ago was that Ukrainian forces had the upper hand in fighting the anti-coup federalists in southeastern Ukraine, in what was largely portrayed as a mop-up operation. But that picture of the offensive originated almost solely from official government sources in Kiev. There were very few reports coming from the ground in southeastern Ukraine. There was one, however, quoting Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko, that raised doubt about the reliability of the government’s portrayal.

According to the "press service of the President of Ukraine" on August 18, Poroshenko called for a "regrouping of Ukrainian military units involved in the operation of power in the East of the country. … Today we need to do the rearrangement of forces that will defend our territory and continued army offensives," said Poroshenko, adding, "we need to consider a new military operation in the new circumstances."

If the "new circumstances" meant successful advances by Ukrainian government forces, why would it be necessary to "regroup," to "rearrange" the forces? At about this time, sources on the ground began to report a string of successful attacks by the anti-coup federalists against government forces. According to these sources, it was the government army that was starting to take heavy casualties and lose ground, largely because of ineptitude and poor leadership.

Ten days later, as they became encircled and/or retreated, a ready-made excuse for this was to be found in the "Russian invasion." That is precisely when the fuzzy photos were released by NATO and reporters like the New York Times’ Michael Gordon were set loose to spread the word that "the Russians are coming." (Michael Gordon was one of the most egregious propagandists promoting the war on Iraq.)

No Invasion – But Plenty Other Russian Support

The anti-coup federalists in southeastern Ukraine enjoy considerable local support, partly as a result of government artillery strikes on major population centers. And we believe that Russian support probably has been pouring across the border and includes, significantly, excellent battlefield intelligence. But it is far from clear that this support includes tanks and artillery at this point – mostly because the federalists have been better led and surprisingly successful in pinning down government forces.

At the same time, we have little doubt that, if and when the federalists need them, the Russian tanks will come.

This is precisely why the situation demands a concerted effort for a ceasefire, which you know Kiev has so far been delaying. What is to be done at this point? In our view, Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk need to be told flat-out that membership in NATO is not in the cards – and that NATO has no intention of waging a proxy war with Russia – and especially not in support of the ragtag army of Ukraine. Other members of NATO need to be told the same thing.


For the Steering Group, Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity:

* William Binney, former Technical Director, World Geopolitical & Military Analysis, NSA; co-founder, SIGINT Automation Research Center (ret.)
* David MacMichael, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
* Ray McGovern, former US Army infantry/intelligence officer & CIA analyst (ret.)
* Elizabeth Murray, Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Middle East (ret.)
* Todd E. Pierce, MAJ, US Army Judge Advocate (Ret.)
* Coleen Rowley, Division Counsel & Special Agent, FBI (ret.)
* Ann Wright, Col., US Army (ret.); Foreign Service Officer (resigned)