lunes, 23 de julio de 2018

EPA


La Unión Europea y Japón han firmado un acuerdo de libre comercio que traerá consecuencias probablemente globales. El mega-acuerdo podría afectar al 40% de las transacciones de todo el mundo, incluyendo a un 70% de las realizadas en el sector de alta tecnología. Varios países adicionales podrían sumarse al acuerdo, mientras que los EEUU quedan afuera. La nota que sigue es de Peter Korzun para el sitio web Strategic Culture Foundation:  



Título: EU, Japan Sign Historic Trade Agreement to Reshape Global Economic Map

Texto: A new era for the EU and Japan, the champions of global free trade and multilateral agreements, has begun. A landmark event that will change the global economic landscape has taken place. The EU and Japan signed a massive free trade deal at the 25th EU-Japan Summit on July 17 in response to recent geopolitical developments. The parties sent what they are calling a "clear message" against protectionism. The Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) will provide a powerful impetus to the economic growth of its signatories and also set the standards for their other trading partners.

The EPA creates a large free-trade area (FTA) with no tariffs whatsoever, encompassing almost a third of the world's GDP and 600 million people. Now that the deal has been signed, it will also apply to the UK during the two-year Brexit transition period that will begin in March 2019. 

The “mega-trade” deal will affect 40% of global trade (up to 70% in high-tech sectors). A drop in prices is likely to boost spending and spur growth. The European Union annually exports more than $100bn (£75bn) in goods and services to Japan. EU agricultural exports could increase by up to 180%.

The Japanese computer, electronic, and automobile industries are all expected to benefit. The prices for Japanese cars will decline in Europe, as import tariffs are gradually reduced to zero. The EPA includes modern provisions that apply to property rights (IPR), labor protections, a procedure for settling accounts, and a commitment to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change — the one rejected by the United States. 

The news about the signing of the EPA contrasts starkly with the tariff wars launched by Washington. On July 15, President Trump called the EU a “foe” that takes advantage of the US in trade. The United States rattled international markets by threatening a trade war with China. Washington imposed 25% tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese goods, and Beijing was quick to retaliate. Henceforth EU officials and Japan will present a united front against US tariffs on steel and aluminum. In turn, China is offering to join forces with the EU in an effort to stand up to the US trade policy.

The United States had been in talks with Japan and other Asia-Pacific countries on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement before President Trump made the decision to unilaterally withdraw.  Washington has abandoned the talks on the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP) and insists on rewriting NAFTA. 

Meanwhile, the EU and Japan continue to discuss the Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA), the EPA’s political twin, which will soon be finalized.  The SPA will consolidate all areas in which the parties are politically engaged into a binding agreement to facilitate those joint efforts on such issues of mutual concern as North Korea.

Brussels and Singapore have committed themselves to promoting the ratification of their 2014 trade and investment deal by the end of 2018.  The EU plans to launch FTA negotiations with Australia and New Zealand, making that alliance the driving force that is propelling the global process of integration.

The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement between the EU and Canada (CETA) took effect in September 2017.  The eleven remaining TPP partners, including Australia, Mexico, and Vietnam, signed the agreement, which has been renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), in March, leaving the US on the sidelines. The deal applies to a market of nearly 500 million people.  America could be a big loser, forgoing a boost to its GDP of 0.5% (worth $131bn). If those eleven join the EU-Japan agreement, the world will drastically change.

There are other examples of regional integration happening in the world. Despite Western sanctions, Russia is part of that process. The Russia-led Eurasian Union has an FTA with Vietnam and is negotiating similar agreements with several countries, including India, Iran, Indonesia, and Singapore. In May, another milestone event took place that was undeservedly left out of the media spotlight.

China signed a free trade agreement (FTA) with the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) in Astana, Kazakhstan. This turns the EAEU-China into a unified zone that sits between Europe and Japan. Goods can be transported from Japan to China by sea and then via train through Kazakhstan, Russia, and Belarus directly to the borders of the EU. The two trade entities could easily agree to make this happen.   Russia’s Northern Passage could also become a trade route for shipping goods from Japan to Europe and vice versa.

A new world order is emerging without the US. Washington’s prominence is waning as the global integration process gains traction while America marches out of step.  The US just cannot imagine a world it does  not dominate. It made the fundamental mistake of adopting a policy of arms twisting, insisting that others dance to its tune or else. Now other actors are shaping the economic and political world map while the US is gradually losing its status as the global leader that is essential to any integration process.


sábado, 21 de julio de 2018

Los afanes del Imperio


Pocas veces un militar norteamericano debe haber sido tan sincero como el que habla en la charla que posteamos hoy. Se llama Lawrence Wilkerson (foto), coronel retirado del ejército estadounidense y secretario de Colin Powell durante la gestión de este último como Secretario de Estado. La charla ocurrió en Canadá; no se la pierdan: 


https://youtu.be/WDbVOvK9APw

viernes, 20 de julio de 2018

Mientras tanto, en Siria…



Las noticias que llegan de Siria siguen siendo alentadoras. Las hordas terroristas alentadas por el Imperio siguen retrocediendo ante los sucesivos avances del Ejército sirio y sus aliados, fundamentalmente Rusia. La Batalla de Siria está entrando en una fase decisiva. Las noticias que siguen son del sitio web libanés Al Manar:



Título: ¿Qué partes de Siria quedan en poder de los terroristas?

Texto: Hace ahora dos años que los terroristas sufren fracasos consecutivos frente al Ejército sirio y las fuerzas aliadas desde Alepo a la Guta Oriental y la provincia de Daraa aunque su presencia en las tierras sirias se ha reducido en el momento actual hasta el nivel más bajo desde 2011.

Con el avance de las fuerzas del Ejército y sus aliados a lo largo de estos últimos años, y los fracasos sucesivos de los terroristas en diversos frentes de Siria, los terroristas se encuentran en dificultades y nadie puede ayudarles, ni siquiera Israel, con todos sus últimos ataques contra el territorio sirio.

La presencia de los terroristas ha quedado reducida a una pequeña parte de la provincia de Daraa y algunas otras de la provincia de Quneitra.

También existe una presencia de los grupos armados en partes determinadas del Rif septentrional de Hama. Hay que citar también la parte norte de la provincia de Alepo y la mayor parte de la provincia de Idleb, que constituye el principal bastión de los terroristas, en especial del Frente al Nusra, en la actualidad.

En total, se calcula que sólo el 9% de todo el territorio sirio está ocupado por los grupos armados y los terroristas mientras que el 3% está todavía en manos del Daesh, según fuentes mediáticas y militares sirias.

Los restos del Daesh se concentran en una parte de la provincia de Deir Ezzor, en el este de Siria, cerca de las fronteras con Iraq. Otro pequeño enclave del Daesh existe también al oeste de la provincia de Daraa.

En lo que se refiere a las Unidades de Protección del Pueblo Kurdo, o kurdos sirios, ellas no dominan más que el 25% de las regiones del norte y el este del país, sin contar Afrin, que están bajo el control de militantes aliados de Turquía y el Ejército turco.

Una simple comparación de los mapas actuales que muestran los campos de batalla en Siria ahora con los de hace varios meses muestra las victorias acumuladas por el Ejército y sus aliados. Es posible afirmar así que los planes para el desmembramiento de la región, y en especial Siria, en pequeños países débiles, incapaces de resistir a EEUU e Israel, han fracasado en su totalidad.



***



Título: Ejército sirio toma tres localidades al oeste de Daraa y busca destruir a Al Nusra

Texto: El Ejército sirio realizó un notable avance el lunes lanzando un poderoso ataque contra los terroristas en el oeste de la provincia de Daraa.

Liderado por las Fuerzas del Tigre y la Fuerza Aérea, el Ejército sirio asaltó varias áreas bajo el control de los terroristas en un intento de expulsar al Frente al Nusra del área de Tal al Harrah.

Según un informe militar de Daraa, el poderoso ataque del Ejército sirio resultó en la toma de Al Taihah después de una corta batalla con los terroristas.

Al Taihah está situada al noroeste de la ciudad estratégica de Al Mallal, en el oeste de Daraa.

Este último ataque del Ejército sirio se produce días después de que los militantes del Frente al Nusra se negaran a abandonar el área de Tal Harrah, cerca de la provincia de Quneitra, saboteando así el acuerdo entre el Ejército Sirio Libre (ESL) y el gobierno sirio.

Con el fin de debilitar las defensas de los terroristas en Tal al Harrah, la aviación siria lanzó una serie de ataques aéreos sobre la ciudad y sus alrededores.

El objetivo último del Ejército sirio es obligar a los terrorista de Al Nusra a aceptar un acuerdo para que sean evacuados fuera de la provincia de Daraa.


Toma de Zimrin y Kafr Shams

Por otro lado, el Ejército sirio tomó en la mañana del lunes la ciudad de Zimrin después de reanudar su ofensiva en el noroeste de Daraa y tras una corta batalla con los terroristas del Frente al Nusra.

Zimrin está situada cerca de la frontera provincial de Al Quneitra y cerca de Tal al Harrah.

El Ejército busca también tomar varias otras ciudades dentro del Triángulo de Daraa, incluida Kafr Nasej.

En la tarde del lunes, el Ejército sirio capturó más territorio a los terroristas en el noroeste de Daraa, dijo una fuente militar a Al Masdar News.

Según la fuente militar, el Ejército sirio tomó las dos colinas de Tal al ‘Antar y Tal al ‘Alaqiyah después de avanzar desde la cercana ciudad de Kafr Shams.

Antes de capturar estas dos colinas, las Fuerzas Tigre entraron en Kafr Shams en la región del Triángulo de Daraa, imponiendo el control total sobre la ciudad después de suscribir un acuerdo de reconciliación con el ESL.



***


Título: El Ejército sirio toma la ciudad de Yassim y busca capturar Nawa, en el oeste de Daraa

Texto: El Ejército sirio reanudó su ofensiva a gran escala en Daraa el martes tras un gran avance el lunes.

Liderado por las Fuerzas del Tigre, el Ejército sirio tomó el lunes cuatro localidades cerca de la cima estratégica de Tal al Harrah, asegurando gran parte de esta área después de que los terroristas se retiraran hacia la provincia de Al Quneitra.

Tras este avance, el Ejército sirio dirigió su atención hacia la gran ciudad de Yassim, que ha estado bajo control de los rebeldes durante más de seis años.

Se produjo un intercambio de fuego feroz entre las dos partes y esto terminó el martes con la retirada de las Brigadas del Frente Sur del Ejército Sirio Libre (ESL) y sus aliados de la ciudad.

El Ejército sirio impuso así el control total sobre Yassim después de asegurar una gran parte del área situada alrededor de la ciudad.

Con Yassim bajo su control, el Ejército sirio ahora cambiará su atención a Nawa, que es la segunda ciudad más grande de Daraa.

Las Brigadas del Frente Sur del Ejército Sirio Libre capturaron Nawa durante su primera gran ofensiva contra el de 2014.

Con Tal al Harrah y Yassim bajo su control, el Ejército debería tomar Nawa con facilidad.

El Ejército necesita también capturar la ciudad de Nabi al Sajer, situada al oeste de Tal al Harrah para asegurar la frontera con la provincia de Al Quneitra.

Nabi al Al Sajer está situada justo al este de los Altos del Golan y junto a una carretera que lleva a la capital provincial de Al Quneitra.

Es probable que los grupos terroristas permanezcan y luchen por Nabi al Sajer, ya que cederla al Ejército sirio daría a este la posibilidad de dividir en dos el territorio ocupado por los militantes en la provincia de Al Quneitra.



***


Título: Fuentes locales: Los terroristas han aceptado una rendición masiva en toda la provincia de Quneitra

Texto: Liderados por las Fuerzas del Tigre, el Ejército sirio atacó varias ciudades a lo largo de la frontera provincial de Al Quneitra el martes y miércoles, lo que resultó en un nuevo avance para las fuerzas gubernamentales.

Según un informe militar de la provincia de Daraa, el Ejército sirio y sus aliados de las Fuerzas de Defensa Nacional (FDN) capturaron las ciudades de Al Mal, Taliha y Aqrab, cerca de la provincia de Al Quneitra.

Además de capturar estas ciudades, el Ejército sirio también se apoderó de la gran cumbre de Tal al Mal, que domina la parte oriental de la provincia de Al Quneitra.

Desalentados por estas victorias, los militantes sirios han comenzado conversaciones sobre una posible rendición masiva en toda la provincia de Al Quneitra.

El miércoles por la noche, activistas progubernamentales comenzaron a informar que se había llegado a un acuerdo entre los grupos armados y el Ejército sirio y que los primeros estaban dispuestos a rendirse y suscribir un acuerdo de reconciliación con el gobierno sirio en Al Quneitra.

Según estos activistas pro-gubernamentales, los militantes habían acordado entregar todas las ciudades de Al Quneitra que están bajo su control, incluida la capital provincial.

Con base en este supuesto acuerdo, el Ejército sirio tomará el control de todas las ciudades ocupadas por los terroristas en la provincia de Al Quneitra.

Además, todos los terroristas entregarán sus armas pesadas y los militantes de los grupos de línea dura como el Frente al Nusra y Ahrar Al Sham serán transportados a la provincia de Idleb.

Por último, el supuesto acuerdo permitirá el regreso de las fuerzas de mantenimiento de la paz de la ONU a los puntos fronterizos a lo largo de los Altos del Golán ocupados por Israel.



***


Título: Las Fuerzas del Tigre llegan a las proximidades del Golán tras la rendición de los terroristas en Al Quneitra

Texto: La agencia SANA confirmó el jueves que los terroristas la provincia de Al Quneitra se han rendido al Ejército sirio, confirmando así las informaciones de fuentes locales que circularon ese mismo día.

Los terroristas de Al Quneitra decidieron así rendirse y entregar sus armas. Aquellos que lo deseen regularizarán su estatus legal y el resto se encaminarán hacia la provincia de Idleb en autobuses.

Al mismo tiempo, un cese el fuego efectivo ha sido implantado en todos los frentes de la provincia de Al Quneitra con el fin de aplicar los acuerdos.

El acuerdo de rendición también contempla el retorno del Ejército sirio a sus posiciones anteriores a 2011.

Se trata de la primera rendición global de los militantes en toda una provincia siria desde que estalló la guerra.

El acuerdo se produce después de una serie de acuerdos de reconciliación en Daraa, provincia vecina de Al Quneitra, que han llevado a que la campaña de liberación de la misma haya transcurrido en gran medida sin lucha.  El Ejército sirio controla ahora el 90% de la provincia de Daraa.

Como consecuencia del ya aparente fin de la campaña en la provincia de Al Quneitra, las Fuerzas del Tigre del Ejército sirio están ya próximas al límite de los Altos del Golán ocupados por Israel.

Se ignora si estas tropas serán las primeras que ocupen los puestos limítrofes con las posiciones israelíes en la zona no ocupada del Golán.



***


Título: Fuertes ataques aéreos rusos contra el Daesh en el Suroeste de Daraa

Texto: Las Fuerzas Aeroespaciales Rusas lanzaron un ataque masivo contra posiciones terroristas en el Suroeste de Daraa el viernes.

Según un informe militar del bastión del gobierno de Izraa, las Fuerzas Aéreas Rusas realizaron más de 20 ataques aéreos en el Suroeste de Daraa el viernes en especial sobre lugares situados dentro la gran bolsa ocupada por el grupo Yaish Jaled bin Walid, afiliado al Daesh, cerca de la frontera jordana.

El informe especificó que la mayoría de los ataques aéreos se dirigieron contra las ciudades de Yalin, Adwan y Tasil, que se encuentran bajo control del Daesh y están cerca de las líneas de frente del Ejército sirio en la provincia de Daraa.

Además de los ataques aéreos rusos, el Ejército sirio ha lanzado una gran cantidad de misiles tierra-tierra contra las posiciones del Daesh en la región de la Cuenca Yarmuk, en Daraa.

Estos ataques aéreos masivos se producen mientras el Ejército sirio se prepara para lanzar una gran ofensiva para eliminar la citada bolsa del Daesh.

Sin embargo, a diferencia de otras batallas en la provincia de Daraa, al Daesh no se le ofrecerá la oportunidad de reconciliarse con el gobierno.

El Ejército sirio pudo tomar la gran mayoría de las provincias de Daraa y Al Quneitra en tres semanas gracias, en gran parte, a estos acuerdos de reconciliación.

A Daesh se le puede dar, sin embargo, la opción de ser transportado a la región de Badiya Al Sham, en el este de Siria, donde quedan algunos restos del grupo.

Debido a la gran cantidad de civiles desplazados cerca de la frontera jordana, la ofensiva del Ejército sirio para capturar la región de la Cuenca de Yarmuk puede resultar más difícil de lo planeado originalmente.



***


Título: 100.000 refugiados han vuelto a Siria este año

Texto: Al menos 101.641 personas, entre ellas 48.282 menores, regresaron a Siria desde principios de 2018, informó el Ministerio de Defensa ruso.

En total [desde enero de 2018] al territorio de Siria regresaron 101.641 personas, de ellas 37.521 mujeres y 48.282 menores”, dice el boletín del Centro Acogida, Reubicación y Alojamiento de Refugiados y Desplazados creado por Rusia en Siria.

Siria vive desde marzo de 2011 un conflicto armado en el que las tropas gubernamentales se enfrentan a grupos armados de la oposición y a organizaciones terroristas.

Según datos de altos cargos de la ONU, unas 400.000 personas perdieron la vida debido a las hostilidades en el país árabe.

Aunque se declaró en diciembre pasado la derrota de ISIS (grupo proscrito en Rusia y otros países) en Siria, todavía quedan en el país algunos combatientes y otras células terroristas.



jueves, 19 de julio de 2018

La usual comedia de enredos


A poco de concluida la reunión cumbre entre el presidente de los EEUU Donald Trump y su homólogo ruso Vladimir Putin, la histeria colectiva desatada por la prensa occidental alcanzó un paroxismo inusitado. La idea, por supuesto, no es aclarar nada sino ensuciarlo todo. Ya comienzan a hartar los esfuerzos de esta gente por seguir manteniendo a los rusos como cuco del mundo. Nadie les cree ya demasiado. Trump tampoco ayuda, enredado en sus esfuerzos por decir cosas que tranquilicen a todo el mundo. Las dos primeras notas que siguen son de Rafael Mathus Ruiz para el diario español El País. La tercera, de la agencia AFP:


Título: Trump quiso frenar el escándalo con Putin con una insólita aclaración

Subtítulo: Muchos catalogaron el encuentro como el peor día de su presidencia

Texto: Aislado, bajo una fuerte presión política, Donald Trump intentó contener la debacle que desató su conferencia de prensa en Helsinki junto al presidente ruso, Vladimir Putin , con una insólita "aclaración" que terminó por echar más leña al fuego.

La movida llegó luego de un día de repudio y críticas de casi todo el arco político en Washington a Trump por la tibieza y ambigüedad que mostró ante Putin, a quien evitó enfrentar por la injerencia rusa en la campaña presidencial de 2016, y cuya palabra puso por encima del veredicto de su propia comunidad de inteligencia y el Congreso.

A contrareloj, la Casa Blanca se vio forzada a orquestar una respuesta, que Trump leyó con escaso entusiasmo, luego de una reunión con legisladores. A regañadientes, el mandatario dijo que tenía "fe total" en las agencias de inteligencia y que aceptaba su acusación a Rusia sobre la injerencia en la campaña, pero un segundo después dijo que "pudo haber sido otra gente, hay mucha gente ahí afuera".

Luego, Trump intentó reescribir la historia de su conferencia de prensa junto a Putin. El presidente dijo que había revisado el video y leído una transcripción del ida y vuelta con los periodistas, y que se había dado cuenta que era necesario hacer una aclaración.

"En una frase clave en mis declaraciones dije la palabra 'sería' en vez de 'no sería'. La oración debería haber sido: 'No veo ninguna razón por la que no sería Rusia'. Así que, sólo para repetirlo, dije la palabra 'sería' en vez 'no sería'", justificó Trump. "Es como una doble negación. Pueden ponerlo. Creo que eso probablemente aclara las cosas bastante bien", continuó.Un día antes, parado al lado de Putin, cuando un periodista le preguntó si lo denunciaría y le advertiría que no volviera a interferir en una campaña, Trump había respondido: "Tengo al presidente Putin, él dijo recién que no fue Rusia. Diré esto. No veo ninguna razón por la que sería".

Trump también dijo una frase que escribió a mano en mayúsculas en la declaración que preparó su equipo: "NO HUBO COLUSIÓN".

A contramano de la lectura plasmada en la prensa y en las reacciones políticas, Trump tildó su cumbre con Putin, uno de los episodios más criticados de su presidencia, como un "tremendo éxito", y dijo que la relación bilateral había "mejorado sustancialmente".

Pero para la Casa Blanca, la debacle parecía no tener final. La actuación de Trump resultó inocua en intentar frenar el enorme daño que la visita a Helsinki le infligió a su presidencia: fue tildada de tardía, y ridícula. La ola de repudio incluyó, además, "fuego amigo". Trump sólo fue respaldado por sus más férreos partidarios, como el comentarista de Fox News, Sean Hannity.

Trump había intentado calmar la ira antes de sus declaraciones con un par de mensajes en Twitter en los que atacó a la prensa, cuya cobertura, en Estados Unidos y Europa, fue muy crítica con el mandatario. "Mientras tuve una gran reunión con la OTAN, consiguiendo grandes cantidades de dinero, tuve una reunión aún mejor con Vladimir Putin de Rusia. Lamentablemente, no se informa de esa manera: ¡las noticias falsas se vuelven locas!", tuiteó Trump.

La lectura casi unánime de la cumbre de Helsinki fue que se trató de uno de los peores momentos de la presidencia de Trump, a quien se llegó a acusar de ser un traidor y de claudicar ante Putin, visto en Washington como un rival de Estados Unidos que ha atentado contra la democracia y busca socavar el vínculo de la primera potencia global con sus aliados históricos y sembrar caos en Occidente.


Donald J. Trump

@realDonaldTrump
 While I had a great meeting with NATO, raising vast amounts of money, I had an even better meeting with Vladimir Putin of Russia. Sadly, it is not being reported that way - the Fake News is going Crazy!


"El presidente Trump debe aclarar sus declaraciones en Helsinki sobre nuestro sistema de inteligencia y sobre Putin. Es el error más grave de su presidencia y debe corregirse de inmediato", escribió Newt Gingrich, expresidente de la Cámara de Representantes, y uno de los principales aliados de Trump dentro del partido republicano.

Mientras los latigazos se acumulaban en el Congreso, las dos principales figuras republicanas, Paul Ryan y Mitch McConnell, se despegaron de Trump, y en una extraordinaria movida diplomática, le ofrecieron garantías a los aliados de la OTAN sobre el compromiso en Washington con la alianza.

"Le diría a nuestros amigos en Europa: entendemos la amenaza rusa. Y creo que esa es la opinión generalizada aquí en el Senado de los Estados Unidos entre los miembros de ambas partes", dijo el líder de la mayoría del Senado Mitch McConnell.

Ryan tildó al gobierno de Putin de "amenazante", una antítesis de la visión trumpista: "Entiendo el deseo y la necesidad de tener buenas relaciones. Es razonable. Pero Rusia es un gobierno amenazante que no comparte nuestros intereses y no comparte nuestros valores y eso debería ser dejado muy, muy en claro".


***


Título: Donald Trump reaviva el escándalo: volvió a contradecir a su comunidad de inteligencia sobre Rusia

Texto: Le llevó menos de 24 horas contradecirse -otra vez- a si mismo. El presidente Donald Trump volvió a ir a contramano de su comunidad de inteligencia al afirmar que Rusia ha dejado de atacar a la democracia norteamericana con el intento de socavar la legitimidad de las elecciones y sembrar caos en Occidente.

Al finalizar una reunión de gabinete en la Casa Blanca, Trump tuvo uno de sus típicos idas y vueltas con los periodista que ingresaron momentáneamente a la sala. Una periodista le preguntó si Rusia seguía atacando a Estados Unidos.

Trump quiso frenar el escándalo con Putin con una insólita aclaración

"Gracias. No", respondió el presidente, en medio de varias voces cruzadas. "¿No?¿No cree que sea el caso?", se le insistió. "No", reiteró Trump.

Apenas unos minutos después, la Casa Blanca se puso otra vez a trabajar para contener las repercusiones por la nueva marcha atrás del mandatario. La vocera presidencial, Sarah Sanders, dijo que en realidad Trump había dicho "no" a responder preguntas de los periodistas. Pero luego de ese "no" Trump continuó hablando, e insistió en que nunca hubo un presidente "tan duro" como él con Rusia, y que el presidente ruso Vladimir Putin no estaba "feliz" por eso.

"Creo que el presidente Putin sabe eso mejor que nadie, ciertamente mejor que la prensa. Él lo entiende, no está feliz con eso, y no debería estar feliz con eso porque nunca hubo un presidente tan duro como Rusia como yo lo he sido", afirmó el mandatario.

El nuevo ida y vuelta, las declaraciones contradictorias y las aclaraciones mantuvieron vivo el escándalo que ha azotado a la Casa Blanca desde la cumbre entre Trump y Putin en Helsinki, que terminó por gestar una de las crisis políticas más profundas de la presidencia del magnate, al ponerlo en la vereda de enfrente no sólo de su propio gobierno, sino de casi todo el arco político norteamericano. Trump llegó incluso a ser acusado de haber traicionado al país.

El "no" del mandatario ante una pregunta sobre los ataques de Rusia a la democracia norteamericana volvió a poner a Trump, por segunda vez, en la misma línea que ha ofrecido el Kremlin, y en contra de sus agencias de inteligencia y de seguridad nacional. La primera vez ocurrió en la conferencia de prensa de Helsinki, en la cual Putin negó cualquier injerencia en la democracia norteamericana, y Trump dijo que no veía "ninguna razón" de que Rusia estuviera detrás de los ciberataques y la guerra de desinformación que tiñeron la campaña presidencial que lo dejó en la Casa Blanca.

Anteayer, en medio de una fuerte ola de repudio y bajo una asfixiante presión política de propios y ajenos, la Casa Blanca orquestó una marcha atrás que Trump ofreció a regañadientes, con una insólita aclaración.

"En una frase clave en mis declaraciones dije la palabra 'sería' en vez de 'no sería'. La oración debería haber sido: 'No veo ninguna razón por la que no sería Rusia'. Así que, sólo para repetirlo, dije la palabra 'sería' en vez de 'no sería'", justificó Trump.

Pero el mandatario volvió a contradecir a su director nacional de Inteligencia, Dan Coats, que luego de la conferencia prensa de Helsinki difundió un comunicado de prensa en el que indicó que los ataques de Rusia continuaban.

"El papel de la comunidad de inteligencia es proporcionar la mejor información y evaluaciones basadas en hechos posibles para el presidente y los legisladores. Hemos sido claros en nuestras evaluaciones de la injerencia rusa en las elecciones de 2016 y sus esfuerzos constantes y continuados para socavar nuestra democracia", había dicho Coats.


***


Título: La teoría de que Putin tiene material comprometedor sobre Trump vuelve a ganar fuerza

Texto: Hubo un tiempo en que el supuesto video hot de Donald Trump en una habitación de hotel en Moscú, denunciado por Christopher Steele en su panfleto conocido como "Dossier Trump", era un tema tabú. Después llegó James Comey y ese material comprometedor, o kompromat, dejó de ser tan tabú.

Ahora, la idea de que Vladimir Putin tiene en su poder kompromat sobre Trump ya ocupa un primer plano. Y todo gracias a la decisión del presidente norteamericano de mantener una reunión bilateral con su par ruso y de hacerle prácticamente una reverencia.

El problema con la postura de Trump frente a Putin no es solo altamente polémica y cuestionable dada la injerencia de Rusia en las elecciones de Estados Unidos de 2016, sino que también es totalmente contraria a la marca registrada del estilo de Trump. Este es el mismo tipo que escribió el libro El arte de la negociación y que pocos días antes de su reunión con Putin había hecho estragos en la cumbre de la OTAN para empujar a sus miembros a invertir más en defensa.

Y aunque osciló entre la dureza y la afabilidad extremas con el líder norcoreano, Kim Jong-un , la deferencia de Trump hacia Putin permaneció prácticamente inalterable. Y así fue también en la reunión del lunes.

Durante ese día, ambos mandatarios debieron responder la pregunta sobre el rumor de que Rusia estaría chantajeando a Trump (de hecho, Putin la contestó dos veces). También dos senadores demócratas, incluido el líder de la minoría, Charles E. Schumer, sugirieron que Putin "tiene algo" sobre Trump. Quienes antes temían parecer tomados por conspiracionistas ahora se animaron.

"Millones de personas se seguirán preguntando si la única explicación posible de esta actitud inexplicable y tan peligrosa no será la posibilidad -la posibilidad muy concreta- de que el presidente Putin tenga información perjudicial para el presidente Trump", dijo Schumer en el recinto del Senado norteamericano.

El senador demócrata por Oregon, Jeff Merkley, incluso fue más lejos y dijo que era "probable" que Rusia tuviese algo sobre Trump.

"Pienso que es probable", le dijo Merkley al sitio BuzzFeed News. Y agregó: "En Rusia es un procedimiento estándar tratar de conseguir información comprometedora sobre las personas importantes que van de visita, arreglarles encuentros con putas y grabar todo lo que pasa en la habitación. Así que es probable que tengan eso".

Así es: ahora hay un senador de Estados Unidos que dice abiertamente que el presidente está siendo extorsionado por "putas", según sus propias palabras.

Charlie Dent, el recientemente retirado congresista republicano, también manifestó sus sospechas en la mañana de anteayer, y por CNN.

Putin y Trump, por su parte, expresaron puntos de vista similares para refutar la idea de que Putin mueve los hilos de Trump. En la conferencia de prensa, después de que parecía no negar del todo que tenía kompromat sobre Trump, Putin le dio una negativa tajante al periodista Chris Wallace, de Fox News, al decir que Trump no tenía interés para él, ya que en 2013, cuando había estado en Moscú, el norteamericano todavía no había iniciado su carrera política.

"No tenemos nada sobre ellos y no puede haber nada sobre ellos. No quiero ofender al presidente Trump con lo que voy a decir, porque puede sonar mal, pero hasta que anunció su candidatura para la presidencia Donald Trump no tenía ningún interés para nosotros", dijo Putin, según la traducción de Fox News.

"Era un hombre rico, pero está lleno de estadounidenses ricos. Para nosotros, era un empresario de la construcción y organizaba concursos de belleza. Me parece todo un sinsentido absoluto".

"Creo que lo dijo lo más crudamente posible: 'No tenemos información sobre Trump'", dijo el presidente norteamericano, repitiendo las palabras del exagente de la KGB.

"Fue también una declaración interesante. Dijo que en 2013, hace tanto tiempo, cuando yo estuve allá, en Rusia había un montón de empresarios. Yo era un empresario muy exitoso, pero a decir verdad, era uno entre tantos. Y algo más, si tuvieran algo, ya habría salido. Y por eso dijo que era un sinsentido."


Razones

Las verdaderas razones de la actitud de Trump hacia Putin quedan libradas a la especulación. Un posible motivo es que Trump realmente admire al caudillo ruso y quiera ser su amigo. Otro es que todo esto no es más que una reacción desmedida y obstinada frente al relato sobre la injerencia de Rusia en las elecciones norteamericanas (y de que Rusia tal vez haya logrado la elección de Trump). Trump es famoso por hacer prácticamente lo contrario a lo que todo el mundo le dice, y casi todo el mundo, incluido su propio partido, le viene reclamando que se ponga duro con Putin.

Pero según Comey, ese es una interpretación que Trump también detesta. Comey dice que Trump le pidió que investigara y refutara la versión sobre el famoso video hot. Comey escribió que "a Trump le preocupaba que hubiese 'incluso un 1 por ciento de posibilidades', de que su esposa Melania creyese que era cierto."

Si Trump realmente quisiera refutar esa línea interpretativa, le sería bastante fácil. En cambio, insiste en mantener una reunión privada de dos horas con Putin, y se niega sistemáticamente a presionarlo por el tema de las elecciones de 2016. Y a continuación prácticamente a Putin en público, frente a los ojos del mundo.

El tema es cada vez más difícil de ignorar. Y aunque Putin no tenga nada sobre Trump, el asunto es totalmente funcional a su objetivo de desestabilizar a Estados Unidos y Occidente. Cuanto más se cacaree sobre el kompromat que involucra al presidente norteamericano, mejor para él.

sábado, 14 de julio de 2018

Una mirada



Lo que sigue podrá gustarte o no; en cualquier caso, es por demás interesante. Si quedaste estupefacto ante las actitudes de Donald Trump esta semana en Europa, acá va una posible explicación. Es de Rostislav Ishchenko y salió hoy en el sitio web The Vineyard of the Saker:



Título: Trump’s Geopolitical Cruise

Texto: The president of the United States Donald Trump put an appearance in at the NATO summit, went to Great Britain – which is leaving the EU, and now prepares to meet the president of Russia Vladimir Putin in Helsinki. Nothing unexpected happened in Brussels, is happening in London, and will happen in Helsinki…

If to approach this affair sensibly, without excess emotions, then it will become clear that “unpredictable Trump” is more predictable than “predictable Obama”.

We are regularly told that Trump the businessman doesn’t understand anything in politics and acts impudently and forcefully, but absolutely unsystematically, destroying the existing western world order without offering anything in exchange. But is this so?

Let’s start with the fact that Trump has actively propagandised his concept of neo-isolationism since the middle of the 1980’s (he started even before the collapse of the USSR). Its main component is criticising the military-political and financial-economic system created by the US and its western allies, which back then (in the 1980’s) still wasn’t global, but soon, after the collapse of the USSR, became exactly that. Trump already back then rather precisely pointed out the defects of this system that will inevitably lead to its crisis, fraught with the collapse of American statehood.

In particular, he, unlike many boastful “economists” who still consider that the printing machine of the Federal Reserve System is a reliable means of solving all problems, already back then specified that the growing gap between expenses and the income of the American budget will sooner or late result in America’s bankruptcy. And the later it is, the more horrifying the system’s collapse will be. But as the lion’s share of expenses went on financing a foreign policy that was active and aggressive, but didn’t promote either strengthening the US’ security or solving its economic problems, Trump suggested to replace the policy of globalism with a policy of isolationism.

Perhaps if the USSR hadn’t disintegrated, Trump’s arguments would still have been listened to back then. But the access that started to be opened to the huge massif of resources of the suddenly evaporated socialist camp temporarily removed the sharpness of the problem and allowed the West to stretch the agony of the system out for 30+ years. And during all these years Trump perfected his arguments and the system of his views, without having doubted his correctness for even a minute.

Trump’s triumph was overdue. And he himself isn’t young any more, and the US is not in the best shape. Especially since his hands, already after being elected as President, have been tied for a long time by the counteraction of the Democrats, who for nearly a year have been seriously trying to achieve Trump’s impeachment. And he had no unambiguous support also in his own party (moreover, in his own administration).

One and a half years was needed to unshackle his hands in foreign and domestic policy. It seems that during these one and a half years Trump managed to form if not a fully-fledged, then at least partial national consensus concerning the model proposed by him of a new international policy designed to ensure the restoration of the lost American power. In any case, he forced the Democrats to shut up, investigations against him came to practically naught, and the “free press” that poured dirt on him loses the trust and support of American voters while Trump increases his approval rating. He managed to make cardinal replacements in his team, and in key directions connected to foreign policy too (Secretary of State and the Adviser for National Security).

Regardless of what hawks the new ones are considered to be, they pursue Trump’s policy, and not their own, and they work effectively. In any case, the visit of the adviser for national security John Bolton to Moscow favourably differed from the work of American diplomats during the first period of Trump’s presidency. He worked without excess noise, he didn’t make loud statements, he conducted negotiations quietly, he didn’t hide that the US and Russia’s positions are almost diametrically opposite, but placed an emphasis on the intention to reach an agreement and managed to obtain in a short period of time the consent of Moscow to hold a meeting in literally two weeks (which in world practice is a rare case – after all, meetings between heads of States demand long and systematic preparation).

I.e., a team (and not a set of officials) appeared for Trump, and this team started to work. So what is it trying to achieve?

This was shown long before the NATO summit. Without hiding the existence of deep contradictions with Moscow and emphasising the intention to take a hard negotiation line, Trump repeatedly specified to his allies that they, firstly, don’t fulfil their own obligation to spend no less than 2% of GDP on the maintenance of NATO (and for defense in general), and secondly, the money thus saved pays Russia for energy resources. He called this situation unacceptable and declared his intention to change it.

If we approach matters objectively, then the situation is indeed absurd and indeed absolutely unacceptable for the US. While Washington – sapping the last strength and inflating the bubble of national debt above any reasonable limits – spends huge money on the standoff with Russia worldwide, its allies appropriate some of this money (shifting their obligations for financing military programs to the US). Even worse – they spend this money on purchasing rather cheap energy resources in Russia. Thus, three-pronged damage is being inflicted on the US:

1. The national debt and the budget deficit grow;

2. American money is being spent by Europe on strengthening Russia – the geopolitical opponent of the US;

3. The European economy receives an exclusive price for energy resources, which increase its competitiveness in relation to America’s.

In fact, the many-years-old position of Europe led to the fact that the US, getting into crippling debt, financed their geopolitical (Russia) and economic (EU) competitors. Obama and Clinton’s neocons agreed to suffer this situation for ideological reasons. But Trump, absolutely in a Marxist way, decided that practice is a criterion of truth, and that the financing of ideologically close regimes for having a “pretty face” inevitably leads to the crash of the donor economy, irrespective of whether the donor is the USSR financing African “Marxists” in the 1960’s-1980’s or the US financing European “democrats” in the 1990’s and the first two decades of the 21st century.

The EU didn’t immediately believe that the US President can seriously threaten them with the termination of cooperation within the framework NATO should Europe refuse to assume its part of the burden. But after Trump in fact dispersed the “G7” – having stated that it would be more comfortable to talk to them if Russia was present at the table, and also after he in fact imposed economic sanctions on Europe, having stipulated the possible cancellation of prohibitive duties on a big range of European goods should the EU abandon energy cooperation with Russia (this is a considerably wider demand than just blocking the construction of “Nord Stream-2”) – the EU was obliged to believe it. The demand to start paying for security constantly sounded.

At the last NATO summit Trump repeated and strengthened his demands. Now he considers that EU countries must spend no less than 4% of GDP on defense. Europeans reluctantly agreed to only 2%, and in the uncertain future at that. They thought to satisfy Trump with this, but faced obstruction.

After the summit Trump went to London and immediately declared that Boris Johnson, who resigned the day prior, could replace May as the Prime Minister with success. This can be attributed to the usual bravado. But if we think about it, Johnson criticised May by saying that her version of Brexit, which she presented as being strict, is insufficiently strict and suggested to behave with Europe in the same way that Trump does.

As a reminder, for three and a half decades Trump has defended the concept of “resetting” the US with the help of a strategy of neo-isolationism. But Washington can’t simply leave all global structures and to isolate itself in its shell. If the global market remains, and the US will stop participating in the structures regulating it, then it will unambiguously lose. The US needs its isolationism to become not a lonely protest against globalism, but a consequence of the dismantling of global structures – where everyone would become compelled isolationists, because the world would transition from an economy of open markets to an economy of protectionism.

That’s why the US needs Britain to exit the EU according to the most strict option (without compensation and without the preservation of any ties). Washington needs the EU to start splitting up. The US already hinted at the inexpediency of the existence of the UN, and they practically started the destruction of the WTO, having unleashed – contrary to norms of the organisation – a trade war against the EU and China. The preservation of the EU and NATO will suit Trump only in the case that both structures unconditionally accept Washington’s ultimatum. Then Europe will lose what remains of its sovereignty, it will lose its own economy, and will start to quickly degrade, turning into one big Greece (without an economy, but with debts). But it is only such a Europe that the US agrees to see as an ally, and if there is no such Europe, then all is fair in love and war.

Proceeding from this, it is easy to understand what Donald Trump will aspire to during the meeting with Vladimir Putin.

Firstly, the US needs a purely informational effect. Inside the country it is important for Trump to show that he is able to build relations with such an important partner as Russia. Outside, he needs to show the Europeans that it’s not only they who can flirt with the Kremlin behind Washington’s back, and that Trump himself can also sit down and reach an agreement with Putin, having resolved all contradictions at the expense of third parties/countries.

Secondly, Trump needs to evaluate just how strong the Russian president’s negotiation position is and whether or not it is possible to somehow shift him from this position. He isn’t going to just frighten the EU. If Putin shows an interest in the possible full destruction of Europe, then Trump with pleasure will conclude an agreement on interaction in relation to this important issue. In the end, the EU is an unreliable partner, and it’s not only the US that it irritates with its ambitiousness (at the same time being unable to implement even minimally organised actions). And Russia is a powerful growing economy. In one of the variants of the calculated future Moscow could quite agree on the destruction of the globalised world – in which (including via Europe’s efforts) it wasn’t allowed to occupy the appropriate position – in order to obtain an atomised world, in which Russia will be able to use its opportunities and resources to be among the leaders.

Trump will try to convince the Russian president that Putin’s concept of a multipolar world and Trump’s concept of an atomised world of conflicting autarkies is the same thing. Meanwhile, if Europe drops out of the scheme of big Eurasia, Russia and China – being only two – won’t be able to create a stable united economic space in a short period of time — there will be a lack not only of European technologies (and there certainly will be a shortage), but also of a half-a-billion European market.

Thus, if it was succeeded to persuade Putin to support the anti-European course of Trump, then almost all American problems would be solved (starting with the fact that the threat of preserving the global economy in the conditions of American isolation would disappear, and finishing with the fact that the American market would remain the only solvent market capable of absorbing Chinese goods, which would deprive China of having possibilities to resist the US).

But having dealt with the EU and China, it would be possible to start the formation of new American globalism and, once again, on anti-Russian foundations.

Thirdly, Trump will try to agree about the implementation of several practical deals. Since the US needs to exit crisis points (in Ukraine, in Syria, in Afghanistan, in Iraq), he will try to “sell” them to Russia before he will be obliged to simply abandon them.

Fourthly and last of all, Trump indeed needs to establish personally cordial and confidential relations with Putin in order to push forward American interests in the international arena more effectively. There came such a time when even not help, but the benevolent silence of Russia is a big gift in a crisis situation.

Trump now doesn’t even hide that he will probe Putin, and after the meeting he won’t hide what topics they discussed. Trump will simply leave his European partners in the dark concerning how far the presidents of the two superpowers went in this discussion and whether it was succeeded to reach an informal agreement about something, and if it was, then whether these agreements will be formalised at the interstate level or will remain the personal obligations of two politicians. Europe will never find out; it will worry, rush about, and will be obliged to fall into someone arms (either Russia’s or the US’).

Trump counts on it being his arms, but even if the EU will choose Russia, the US hopes that the mass of European problems, the absence of unity in the EU, the special position of the Polish-Baltic limitrophe, and the need to shovel away the horrifying consequences of the Ukrainian crisis won’t allow to realise the potential of such a union, but on the contrary, it will assist in the final collapse of the EU (it looks as if this is in the US’ interests and at the same time Trump isn’t guilty).

Before when the electoral campaign of Trump entered the home straight, I and a number of other observers wrote that “pragmatic” Trump can appear to be a more difficult partner for Russia than “crazy” Clinton. He knows what he wants, he stubbornly tries to achieve it, and he obviously isn’t going to be reconciled with the inevitability of the US’ defeat, which Obama-Clinton’s strategy unconditionally led to. He risks seriously weakening his position, but he transfers the great game from the area of guaranteed defeat to the sphere of the unknown and uncalculated, where answers to unexpected “wrong” moves should be sought away from the [chess – ed] board in real-time, without understanding what scheme the opponent tries to build and as a result being mistaken.

And nevertheless, it is much more interesting with a Trump that is lively and inclined to taking risks than with Obama and Clinton – “correct” up to absolute sterility, politically correct hawks who saw that they were losing, but didn’t want to change the scenario of the game and started to blackmail the world with a flipped [chess – ed] board, hinting that they can also launch the third world war if they are driven into a corner.

Trump is more interesting – he is an intellectual player, and not an obtuse yob. I think that for Putin it won’t be boring with him in Helsinki.


viernes, 13 de julio de 2018

Ultimo intento


En lo que parece un intento de último momento para estropear la próxima cumbre entre el presidente de la Federación Rusa, Vladimir Putin, y su par estadounidense Donald Trump, el Consejero Especial de este último país, Robert Muller (foto), acaba de acusar a doce ciudadanos rusos con cargos que van desde "conspiración" hasta "robo de identidad" e "intento de lavado de dinero". Todo suma, chicos. Así lo cuenta el sitio web Moon of Alabama



Título: No Evidence In Mueller's Indictment Of 12 Russians - Release Now May Sabotage Upcoming Summit

Texto: The Special counsel Robert Mueller issued an indictment (pdf, 29 pages) against 12 Russian people alleged to be officers or personal of the Russian Military Intelligence Service GRU. The people, claims the indictment, work for an operational (26165) and a technical (74455) subunit of the GRU.

A Grand Jury in Washington DC issued 11 charges which are described and annotated below. A short assessment follows.

The first charge is for a "Conspiracy to Commit an Offense Against the United States" by stealing emails and leaking them. The indictment claims that the GRU units sent spearfishing emails to the Hillary Clinton campaign and the Democratic Party organizations DNC and DCCC. They used these to get access to email boxes of John Podesta and other people. They are also accused of installing spyware (X-agent) on DNC computers and of exfiltrating emails and other data from them. The emails were distributed and published by the online personas DCLeaks, Guccifer II and later through Wikileaks. The indictment claims that DCLeaks and Guccifer II were impersonations by the GRU. Wikileaks, "organization 1" in the indictment, is implicated but so far not accused.

Note: There is a different Grand Jury for the long brewing case against Julian Assange and Wikileaks. Assange has denied that the emails he published came from a Russian source. Craig Murray, a former British ambassador, said that he received the emails on a trip to Washington DC and transported them to Wikileaks.

The indictment describes in some detail how various rented computers and several domain names were used to access the DNC and DCCC computers. The description is broadly plausible but there is little if any supporting evidence.

Charge 2 to 9 of the indictment are about "Aggravated Identity Theft" for using usernames and passwords for the personal email accounts of others.

Charge 10 is about a "Conspiracy to Launder Money". This was allegedly done "through a web of transaction structured to capitalize on the perceived anonymity of cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin". It is alleged that the accused mined bitcoins, channeled these through dozens of accounts and transactions and then used them to rent servers, virtual private network access and domain names used in the operation.

Note: The indictment reinforces the author's hunch that bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are creations and playgrounds of secret services just like Tor and other 'cool' internet 'privacy' stuff are. Its the very reason why one should avoid their use.

Charge 11 of the indictment is a "Conspiracy to Commit an Offense Against the United States". It claims that some of the accused hacked into state boards of elections and into U.S. companies providing elections related software.

Note: Other reporting found that the alleged attack resulted in no changes to the election results or other damage.

The Unites States will seek forfeiture of the valuables the accused may have within the United States as part of any sentencing of the accused.


Assessment:

- It is not by chance that this indictment was published now,  a few days before the first summit between Donald Trump and the Russian President Vladimir Putin and shortly before the successful soccer world championship in Russia ends. The release intends to sabotage the talks.

- The indictment describes a wide ranging operation but includes zero proof of anything it alleges.

- Mueller likely hopes that the indictment will never come in front of a court. The alleged stuff would be extremely difficult to prove. Any decent lawyer would ask how the claimed information was gained and how much of it was based on illegal snooping by the NSA. Something the U.S. would hate to reveal.

- It is unlikely that there will ever be a trial of these cases. The indicted persons are all Russians in Russia and none of them is likely to be stupid enough to follow an invitation to Las Vegas or to Disney World.
But who knows?


In February Mueller indicted the Russian Internet Research Agency, a clickbait farm run for commercial purpose, of influencing the U.S. election. The expectation then like now was that there would never be trial. In a surprise move one of the accused Russian companies, Concord Management, took up the challenge and demanded discovery. Mueller then tried to delay the hand over of evidence (which he probably does not have.) A judge rejected the attempt. The case is pending.

The indictment, which may well be made up and is unlikely to ever be tested in court, will reinforce the "Russia is an enemy" campaign which was launched way before the 2016 election. It will reinforce the believe of some Democrats that Russia, and not the selection of a disgusting candidate, cost Hillary Clinton the presidency.

The detente with Russia which U.S. president Donald Trump tries to achieve will now be more difficult to implement and to sustain.

jueves, 12 de julio de 2018

Algo se rompió



Puede que el tipo esté loco, puede que sea un genio, puede ser cualquier cosa. Pero algo se rompió en Europa en estos días, o algo está por romperse pronto. Las declaraciones del presidente estadounidense Donald Trump en ese continente, tanto en ocasión de la asamblea anual de la NATO como horas antes de reunirse con la primera ministra británica Theresa May, rozan lo demencial en términos diplomáticos. Las dos notas que siguen son del New York Times de hoy:



Título: Trump Rattles Britain Hours After Unsettling NATO

Texto: President Trump put his brand of confrontational and disruptive diplomacy on full display on Thursday, unsettling NATO allies with a blustering performance in Brussels and then, in a remarkable breach of traditional protocol, publicly undercutting Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain hours after landing in her country.

NATO, a pillar of the global order, emerged from its two-day confrontation with Mr. Trump on Thursday intact but distracted and rattled, a further challenge to the alliance as it faces an expansionist Russia and growing authoritarianism among some of its own members.

Wrapping up talks with fellow leaders of the 29-nation trans-Atlantic alliance, Mr. Trump reaffirmed support for NATO, but only after stirring more discord with a vague threat that the United States could go its own way if the allies resisted his demands for additional military spending, capping a summit meeting punctuated by his escalating complaints.

He then flew to Britain, where the newspaper The Sun published an interview that in its bluntness and criticism of Mrs. May on her own turf all but dispensed with diplomatic norms.

In the midst of a week that has seen Mrs. May parrying threats to her hold on power, Mr. Trump second-guessed her handling of the main issue on her plate: how Britain should cut its ties to the European Union. He cast doubt on whether he was willing to negotiate a new trade deal between Britain and the United States and praised Mrs. May’s Conservative party rival, Boris Johnson, as a potentially great prime minister.

The interview was published as Mr. Trump and Mrs. May were wrapping up what appeared to be a chummy dinner at Blenheim Palace — earlier, they had walked inside holding hands — and a day ahead of the president’s scheduled meeting with Queen Elizabeth II at Windsor Castle. There was no immediate response from the British government.

“Well I think the deal that she is striking is not what the people voted on,” Mr. Trump said in the interview, speaking of the approach Mrs. May is taking to Britain’s exit from the European Union, or Brexit, under which the British economy would effectively continue to be subject to many European regulations.

Speaking of Mr. Johnson, who resigned this week as foreign secretary in protest over Mrs. May’s Brexit strategy and who has long been seen as likely to challenge her for her job, Mr. Trump said, “Well I am not pitting one against the other. I’m just saying I think he would be a great prime minister. I think he’s got what it takes and I think he’s got the right attitude to be a great prime minister.”

The day amounted to a global disruption tour unlike anything undertaken by any other recent American leader, and it seemed to be a new twist on the “special relationship” between Britain and the United States.

Mixing pique, self-congratulation and a relentless focus on whether the United States is being taken advantage of by its closest allies, Mr. Trump spent his final hours at the NATO meeting in Brussels bludgeoning other leaders but got little in the way of concrete results.

In the latest example of his penchant for creating conflict to draw attention to his agenda, he first demanded an emergency meeting to address his grievances and then called a news conference — something he has not done in the United States in more than a year — to claim “total credit” for having pressed NATO members into increasing their military budgets “like they never have before.”

It was a classic Trump performance — bluster, confrontation and demands followed by a unilateral declaration of victory — but his claim was quickly dismissed by the leaders of Italy and France, who disputed that they had made any new pledges for increasing spending, adding to the sense of disarray.

His willingness to criticize Mrs. May in her own country only underscored the tensions in his relations with other allied leaders and his totally unconventional approach to diplomacy.

But the NATO summit meeting did produce some substantive accomplishments for those who support the alliance’s traditional focus on maintaining security against Russia. The leaders, including Mr. Trump, had signed on to a statement — issued after the first day of the meeting rather than at its conclusion, reducing the chances that the president might change his mind about it — that highlighted agreement on a plan to improve the readiness and mobility of the armed forces across the Continent and progress on issues like cybersecurity. And they agreed on tough language aimed at Moscow, especially regarding Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

But with Mr. Trump scheduled to meet with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia on Monday — and with the Trump campaign’s ties to Russia the focus of a wide-ranging investigation — the gathering of the leaders was dominated not by discussion over how to address security threats or Mr. Putin’s efforts to divide the West but by wrangling over money.

Rather than projecting unity ahead of the Trump-Putin meeting, the gathering generated nonstop images of division. Intense concern about the corrosive effects of populism and growing authoritarianism in NATO members like Turkey, Hungary and Poland on support for post-World War II institutions and policies received little or no sustained public attention.

In the weeks before the summit meeting, alliance leaders feared that Mr. Trump would try to blow everything up, dealing a truly severe blow to the multilateral world order and to trans-Atlantic deterrence and cohesion.

On Thursday, Mr. Trump dismissed concerns that his relationship with Russia was too cozy, or that his hardball tactics at NATO had played into the hands of Mr. Putin, whom he is to meet in Helsinki, Finland, next week. But after 48 hours of overt conflict with allies — and the second international summit meeting in two months where he has sparred openly with European leaders — he said he looked forward to a positive encounter with the Russian president.

“I hope that we’re going to be able to get along with Russia; I think that we probably will be able to,” Mr. Trump said. “We go into that meeting not looking for so much.”

The White House hastily called the news conference in Brussels amid reports that Mr. Trump had unleashed a tirade during a closed-door morning meeting against member countries he complained were still not spending enough on their militaries. Mr. Trump used the news conference to hail himself, again, as a “stable genius,” saying he deserved “total credit” for pushing the allies to increase their military spending by more than previously agreed to.

According to a person briefed on the meeting, Mr. Trump told other NATO leaders that if their countries did not meet the 2 percent standard by January, the United States would go it alone, a comment that some interpreted as a threat to withdraw from the alliance. (

White House officials ignored requests to clarify what the president had said or offer any information on which the allies had responded to his threats with promises of more military spending.

In the end, though, he spoke supportively of the alliance, saying: “I believe in NATO. I think NATO’s a very important — probably the greatest ever done.”

President Emmanuel Macron of France said, “We are all leaving this summit stronger because the president of the United States of America reaffirmed his commitment and his desire to have a strong NATO.”

But the leaders were clearly taken aback by Mr. Trump’s disruptive posture. They had fair warning from his confrontational behavior last month at the Group of 7 summit meeting in Canada, where he called the host, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, “Very dishonest and weak” in a Twitter post.

Nevertheless, they emphasized that in general Mr. Trump was conciliatory in private sessions, though he was clearly upset by Thursday headlines indicating that he was happy with the NATO discussion on spending. To express his displeasure, he came late to the scheduled meetings and insisted on the emergency session on spending.

Mr. Trump wanted to underline that he was not at all happy with the level of burden-sharing despite having agreed to the communiqué, and he urged countries lagging behind to move more quickly, according to a senior official who attended the special session. Alliance members have pledged to raise military spending to 2 percent of G.D.P. by 2024.

The discussion was a healthy one, the official said. It created more urgency and it also allowed the summit meeting to end with an agreed message on improving spending, far better than an outcome where Mr. Trump was vocally unhappy and the others were perceived not to care, he added.

Indeed, Mr. Trump came away mollified, broadcasting his own sense of triumph, though he had said the day before that member nations had to reach the 2 percent goal immediately, and that the target should rise to 4 percent.

“In the end I think the meeting was less divisive than feared,” said Alexander Vershbow, a former NATO deputy secretary general. “I think it’s the reality show that the president loves. There wasn’t enough drama, so Trump has a tantrum, knocks over the table, and allies are used as props in his reality show.”

That being said, he added, “NATO goes on.”

The substance of the meeting, he and others said, is in the communiqué. That document, a product of nearly a year of work, commits the alliance to a stronger deterrent against Russia, more efforts on cybersecurity, a strengthening of the alliance’s southern strategy and a new training program for Iraq, Tunisia and Libya. It also called for nations to devote at least 20 percent of their growing military budgets to equipment and modernization.

The United States pays 22 percent of NATO’s budget, which covers things like offices, salaries and some equipment used in joint operations. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, of the $603 billion that the United States spends on the military each year, about $31 billion goes to Europe.

In the end, some analysts criticized Mr. Trump for fabricating a ruckus that, however much it might serve his political ends, was harmful to the alliance.

“NATO always had a good story to tell at this summit, with the communiqué reflecting a robust and resilient alliance that is making real progress on a range of challenges,” said Amanda Sloat, a former State Department official now at the Brookings Institution. “Trump’s belligerent tweets and taunts unfortunately overshadowed what should have been a straightforward message of success.”

The drama in Brussels on Thursday was all about Mr. Trump’s desire to make noise for his political base, Ms. Sloat said. “Some say there was some victory for Trump, that he achieved what he wanted, but it’s not true,” she said. “There is no utility in creating all this noise, it’s incredibly divisive.”

It is good to push for more defense spending, but allies are not like business partners, she said. “You can’t lambaste Germany one day and then ask them for something else the next,” she said. “Actions and rhetoric have consequences. Blowing up summits and projecting disunity doesn’t help credibility.”

Then Mr. Trump moved on to Britain.



***


Título: Trump Inserts Himself Into Brexit Debate, Criticizing Theresa May

Epígrafe: President Trump on Thursday plunged directly into Britain’s politically explosive debate over leaving the European Union, saying that Prime Minister Theresa May’s plans to keep close economic ties with the bloc could kill a possible trade deal with the United States.

Texto: In an interview with The Sun, Mr. Trump also said that Mrs. May had ignored his advice on negotiations over Britain’s departure, known as Brexit.

“I would have done it much differently,” Mr. Trump was quoted as saying. “I actually told Theresa May how to do it, but she didn’t listen to me.” Instead she went “the opposite way,” he said, and the results have been “very unfortunate.”

His comments come ahead of a meeting on Friday with Mrs. May, who had been hoping to use the presidential visit to underscore the importance of Britain’s relationship with the United States, one that she hopes deepens after Brexit.

But, in comments likely to embarrass his host, Mr. Trump said that Boris Johnson, a Brexit hard-liner who resigned from Mrs. May’s government this week, would make “a great prime minister.”

Mrs. May has been making the case for a free trade deal with the United States and argued that Brexit was an “opportunity” to strengthen trans-Atlantic ties and spur economic growth both in Britain and in the United States. British officials hoped that Mr. Trump’s visit would help that process.

Instead the comments were likely to stoke acute tension within Mrs. May’s Conservative Party, following the publication on Thursday of the government’s plan for exiting the bloc, which would keep Britain tied to European Union rules on goods and agricultural products.

Even before it was released as a white paper on Thursday, that proposal had prompted the resignation of three government ministers, including Mr. Johnson, the foreign secretary who had argued for a cleaner break with the European Union.

Before arriving in Britain, Mr. Trump had described Mr. Johnson as a friend and said he might be in contact with him during the presidential visit to Britain, which began on Thursday and is scheduled to end on Sunday.

Mrs. May’s new plan is intended to minimize the economic impact of Brexit which could be severe because the European Union is Britain’s biggest trading partner. But Mr. Trump appeared to side with pro-Brexit critics who argue that by keeping many of the European Union’s economic rules, it would inevitably reduce the scope for a separate trade deal with the United States.

“If they do that, then their trade deal with the U.S., will probably not be made,” Mr. Trump said, according to the newspaper.

The comments are acutely delicate because supporters of Brexit argue that one of the key advantages of quitting the European Union would be that it would leave Britain free to strike trade deals around the world.

When he resigned on Monday as foreign secretary, Mr. Johnson made a fierce attack on Mrs. May’s strategy for Brexit saying the “dream is dying, suffocated by needless self doubt.”

In his interview Mr. Trump struck a highly negative tone about the European Union itself, arguing that the United States had “enough difficulty” with the bloc.

“We are cracking down right now on the European Union because they have not treated the United States fairly on trading,” he said.

But in Britain Mr. Trump’s intervention is likely to only intensify divisions within Mrs. May’s Conservative Party over how to proceed with Brexit, amid speculation that the prime minister could face a leadership challenge.

The White House, in what appeared to be damage control, quickly sought to counter how Mr. Trump’s remarks might be perceived.

“The President likes and respects Prime Minister May very much,” Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Mr. Trump’s press secretary, said in a statement. “As he said in his interview with the Sun she ‘is a very good person’ and he ‘never said anything bad about her.’”

The statement said Mr. Trump “is thankful for the wonderful welcome from the Prime Minister here in the U.K.”

In recent weeks British business has been increasingly vocal about the risks of a clean break with the European Union, with warnings from Jaguar Land Rover and Airbus among others that they could leave the country, putting thousands out of work.

But hard-line Brexit supporters have been fiercely critical of Mrs. May’s Brexit plan and fear that, after negotiations with the European Union, it could be watered down further.

Mr. Trump’s favorable comments about Mr. Johnson are therefore likely to be seen as an implicit criticism of Mrs. May. In his letter of resignation on Monday, Mr. Johnson said that, under Mrs. May’s proposals, Britain was “truly headed for the status of colony.”

Mr. Johnson once described one government Brexit customs plan as “crazy” and, in leaked comments, also accused Mrs. May’s government of lacking “guts.” He compared her negotiating style unfavorably with that of Mr. Trump, and he compared her new Brexit plan to excrement.

In the Sun interview Mr. Trump also renewed his criticism of Sadiq Khan, the mayor of London, with whom he has clashed on several occasions, and who gave protesters permission to launch a giant orange balloon of the president depicted as a baby in a diaper. “Take a look at the terrorism that is taking place,” Mr. Trump said. “Look at what is going on in London. I think he has done a very bad job on terrorism.”

The Sun story broke just as a lavish black-tie dinner that Ms. May was hosting for Mr. Trump at Blenheim Palace was breaking up, and guests in formal gowns and tuxedos were leaving the estate.

Chris Ruddy, the chairman of Newsmax and a confidant of Mr. Trump who attended the dinner, said there was no hint of tension between the president and Ms. May during the event itself, which he called “a lovefest between Britain and the United States.”

“The president has always been for Brexit full speed, but I’d really like to see the full interview in context,” Mr. Ruddy said, suggesting that Mr. Trump’s comments may not have been as direct a broadside against Ms. May as they were portrayed to be in The Sun. “I went over and chatted directly with the president and the prime minister, and he indicated to me that the special relationship between the United States and Britain was better than ever.”

Mr. Ruddy said he learned of the interview as he was driving away from Blenheim, and British friends began texting him expressing shock and surprise about what Mr. Trump was reported to have said.