Medios, Histeria, Imperio

Posteamos a continuación una muy interesante nota del historiador Eric Zuesse aparecida estos días en el sitio Strategic Culture Foundation. El autor revisa la guerra mediática que el Imperio desató contra Rusia desde 1990, así como también el silencio cómplice de la gran prensa mundial sobre los verdaderos actores de la confrontación, antes encubierta, ahora abierta:

Título: America’s Now-Aggressive War Against Russia

Texto: America’s aristocracy is determined to take over Russia. Ever since the end of the Soviet Union and of its communism, the Cold War has become replaced by an increasingly hot war in which the US and its allies are expanding NATO right up to Russia’s borders, and imposing against Russia what the US refused to accept being imposed upon itself during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis: nuclear checkmate!

The direction of aggression since the end of communism has reversed, and the aggression itself has considerably intensified. Though the ideological excuse for the conflict is thus entirely gone, the aggression against Russia is far more than the Soviet Union ever dreamt of even trying against America. It’s so blatant. This is raw aggression, for nothing else than conquest – ideology has nothing to do with it. First, Russia’s allies are assassinated or otherwise overthrown; then, Russia is to be in the cross-hairs, isolated as much as possible: Russia’s ally Saddam Hussein in Iraq was killed in 2003; Russia’s ally Muammar Gaddafi in Libya was killed in 2011; America and its allies (Sunni-fundamentalist nations Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and Turkey) tried to kill Russia’s ally the non-sectarian Shiite Bashar al-Assad in Syria in 2013 but failed; and the US perpetrated a coup that overthrew the Russia-friendly President of Ukraine, Viktor Yanukovych, in February 2014. In each instance, chaos and an enduring hell for the victim-nation’s public have resulted, but America’s rulers are psychopaths, and they keep up the propaganda and the lies alleging the US regime to be good and the regimes they overthrow to have been bad and ‘deserving’ of the American-and-allied aggression. The regimes they overthrew were bad, but not nearly so vile as America has imposed after them. In Syria, Russia itself interceded in order to defeat the jihadists that the US-led operation has been using to bring down Assad. Only the US-and-allied nonstop propaganda fools the publics in US-allied countries to think that their own rulers were «well-intentioned» but «misled by poor intelligence». The suckers don’t even notice that it happens again and again: there is clearly a pattern to these ‘mistakes’. These weren’t mistakes; they were aggressions, for spreading conquest. This is an increasingly hot war; to call it «the new Cold War» is to lie, yet again.

The US and its allies (the Sunni-Islamic, Roman Catholic, Protestant, and Jewish aristocracies) are the world’s aggressors now; and Russia and its allies (who have emerged as being the Shia-Islamic, Orthodox Catholic, Confucian, Tao, and Hindu aristocracies) are in the West’s gunsights, to be forced by the American aristocratic gang to capitulate, as the former capitalist-v.-communist Cold War has increasingly (ever since 1990) morphed into an increasingly aggressive and increasingly hot war for brute conquest, by the US and its allies, taking over, one-by-one, without overthrowing but instead playing simply upon residual fears against the long-expired communist Soviet Union, Russia’s former allies, who were: Czech, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia; and soon: Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Ukraine, and Georgia. The aim of all of this is ultimately to take over Russia itself, to become the vestigial whipping-boy for Soviet crimes. (Whereas the US wants all of the former Warsaw Pact countries in its NATO, the US has consistently refused to accept Russia into NATO – though that had been verbally promised to Gorbachev.) This isn’t actually retribution based on vengeance; it is instead aggression based on the craving that America’s aristocrats have for sheer global conquest.

This is not a grab for added wealth and power by any public anywhere – the non-aristocrats (the public) are basically just servants and/or suckers to the aristocracy, in any country. The public in each country are overwhelmingly comprised of the servers and the mere fools of that country’s aristocracy. The aristocracy include the people who own the ‘news’ media, and who (as servers are paid to) slant their ‘news’ ‘reporting’ (to the multitudes of mere suckers) in order to block from national power any politician who resists continuing rule by the given nation’s aristocracy – regardless of any politician's particular political party within that country. These ‘news’ media are, in turn, being paid by other aristocrats, the advertisers, and so the entire aristocracy controls each and every one of them, and thus collectively decides which ‘news’ gets published, and which (like this) does not. The editors whom the aristocrats hire won’t publish this, but that doesn’t mean its false and the lies they publish are true. It simply means that the truth is suppressed.

Here is the best documentary introduction to this global war, and this documentary is only 22 minutes long; so, a viewer might want to replay and investigate on his/her own some of the passages that whiz by in it. I have found that everything in it is honest and true: this documentarian, Aaron Hawkins (or «Storm Clouds Gathering»), is far more careful to exclude fabricated ‘information’ than are the vast majority of documentarians and videographers – especially about such ‘sensitive’ geopolitical subjects. False and fake sources are carefully excluded by Hawkins; only the most-solid sources are employed in his documentaries. In the 22 minutes of this one are the most-important global historical events since the start of Richard Nixon’s massively history-shaping presidency. The changes that Nixon pioneered are rising to a crescendo today, and some of them are explained in that documentary.

As I myself have documented in an earlier article, the US war against Russia started in 1990 while the Administration of the then-US President George Herbert Walker Bush was negotiating with the Administration of the Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev the conditions for the re-unification of Germany, and the end of the Cold War: Bush told his negotiators to make certain promises; but, then, once Gorbachev’s people said yes to these understandings, Bush instructed his people to move forward on the basis of ignoring what they had just promised, and they all did so – and there was nothing that Russia now could do about it, because Russia had just disbanded (and this is Putin’s big lament about Gorbachev) not only the Soviet Union, but even the broader Warsaw Pact – the military alliance that had been the USSR’s equivalent to America’s NATO alliance. Gorbachev actually trusted the West – he didn’t know that the US, which leads the West, was no longer a democracy; he didn’t know that the aristocracy had retaken it. He wasn’t prepared for the reality that the US had recently been restored to aristocratic control after the brief period of post-Civil-War democracy in the US, 1932-1972. And now, the US is more in the grip of its aristocracy than ever since the country had started, back in 1776. US President Jimmy Carter is correct that today’s US is a dictatorship. But publics in the US-allied nations haven’t yet figured that out.

From the end of the Soviet bloc (1991) till the present time, each successive US President has run a foreign policy that continues from George Herbert Walker Bush’s exquisitely engineered deceit, which was designed ultimately to surround Russia, and to swallow it up. That’s the plan, and Barack Obama is utterly devoted to it – to such an extent that, according to the great investigative journalist Seymour Hersh, the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Martin Dempsey, who had been in on the planning for the operation to overthrow the Russia-friendly leader of Syria, Bashar al-Assad, quit over Obama’s determination to continue the operation until Assad is removed and replaced by a leader who will do what the US aristocracy wants (which is to allow the gas-pipeline from Qatar into Europe to be built and to run through Syria).

Russia is the world’s most resource-rich nation. The US aristocracy wants to control it. And Qatar and Saudi Arabia want to weaken their biggest oil-and-gas competitor: Russia.

When the Soviet Union broke up in 1991, Russia became ruled by Boris Yeltsin, who accepted guidance from Washington, and privatized the Russian nation’s most valuable assets, in deals that spun them off to corrupt operators who shared their bonanzas with American aristocrats, including even some of the Harvard economists who were basically making the decisions and overseeing the entire process of this stripping from the Russian public their key national assets and enriching the most grubby US-subservient new Russian aristocrats. Both the wealth and the welfare of the Russian people immediately plunged, and then started slowly climbing back up to what it had been before the breakup. The US operation of Russia was an absolute disaster for the Russian people.

But here is what the agents for America’s aristocrats said about Yeltsin’s rule of Russia (as quoted in pages 3-5 of Stephen F. Cohen’s 2001 «Failed Crusade: America and the Tragedy of Post-Communist Russia»:

«The Russian prospect over the coming years and decades is more promising than ever before in its history». David Remnick, journalist, 1997 [now the editor of the New Yorker].

«Optimism prevails universally among those who are familiar with what is going on in Russia». US Vice President Al Gore, 1998.

«Only a few years from now… what will be left standing is the towering edifice of Yeltsin’s achievement». Leon Aron, biographer, 2000.

At the same time (also on those same pages from Cohen) was being published outside the US the depressing reality inside Yeltsin’s Russia:

«A human crisis of monumental proportions is emerging in the former Soviet Union». UN Development Program, 1999.

«Will we continue looting and destroying Russia until nothing is left?… God forbid these reforms should continue». Alexander Solzhenitsyn, 2000.

Look at the reality, and you’ll see in the statistics of Russia, what was blatantly obvious to everyone except Americans (who are so deluded by the agents for America’s aristocracy). For examples of this «human crisis of monumental proportions»: Between 1991 when Yeltsin took over, and 1993 a mere two years later, Russia’s male life expectancy plunged from 63 years down to less than 58 years. When Putin took over in 2000, it was 59 years. By 2010, it was back again to 63 years. By 2014, it was 66 years, an all-time-record high. But America’s propaganda says that Putin is bad and Yeltsin was good.

Per-capita GDP was 39% of America’s in 1991, and was 20% of America’s in 1998, while Americans were praising Yeltsin’s rule. By 2010, after 10 years of Putin, it had risen to 39% of America’s. It kept rising until Obama slammed on the economic sanctions in 2014.

Pew Global polling shows unfavorable opinions of Putin everywhere but in Vietnam, China, India, and Philippines (and they didn’t show their figure in Russia itself, where Pew had actually found an 88% approval-rating for Putin) – and strongly negative ratings in all of the US-allied countries. However, earlier than the February 2014 Obama coup that replaced a Moscow-friendly with a Washington-run President of Ukraine, Pew found no such international hostility toward either Putin personally or Russia nationally. All of this hostility was manipulated by the US as part of Obama’s all-out campaign to cripple and isolate Russia so as to cause Putin to lose power ultimately and become replaced by a US stooge.

The US government propaganda services, quite understandably, brag about how effectively they’ve demonized Putin. They have, indeed, done a terrific job for their aristocratic masters. They’ve convinced billions of suckers, that white is black, black is white, up is down, and down is up.

And that’s the news, about the ‘news’.

And here is more, just in case someone still really believes the US aristocracy’s lie that the sanctions against Russia are based on international criminality by Russia’s leadership, and not on international criminality by America’s leadership. The truth here is too hot to handle: the US, just like it was internationally recognized to be in the only global opinion poll on the subject, is overwhelmingly recognized as constituting «the greatest threat to peace in the world today».

And that’s news the US aristocracy and its allied aristocracies don’t report; they suppress. It’s also why the pollster, which was hired by them for this poll, buried it, instead of headlined with it. (Perhaps if – as America’s aristocrats might have been hoping – Russia had been named there as #1 instead of the US, that would have been the headline. But Russia wasn’t even listed among the top 5 there. News like that always gets buried. Just as does the news that the only scientific analysis of the evidence about the overthrow of Yanukovych proves that it was a US coup, no authentic ‘revolution‘.)

Siguen los pronósticos sombríos

“El año 2016 estará marcado por la probabilidad creciente de un conflicto global. El ambiente turbulento en el Mar de la China del Sur, el emplazamiento de armamento nuclear en Europa y el estilo colonial y doble rasero de la política exterior de los EEUU, podrían arrastrar al mundo a una catástrofe nuclear en un futuro cercano”. La sombría prognosis es la conclusión de una nota sin firma publicada hoy en el sitio South Front (http://southfront.org), el que suele reproducir los puntos de vista de la Federación Rusa en torno a la situación internacional. Acá va:

Título: FOREIGN POLICY DIARY – 2015, YEAR OF CRISIS ESCALATION. WHAT TO EXPECT IN 2016?

Texto: 2015 was marked by a series of crucial diplomatic and military developments in the world. The old world order established after the Cold War is rapidly changing. Russia, China, and Iran have become the main forces openly making steps to change the global system. In turn, the US-led block is seeking to retain the old world order by any means. The clash of interests in crisis regions around the world is engendering a serious escalation. Even if 2015 was successful for Russian and Iranian diplomacy, the situation remains complicated on the ground. While neither of the main world crises have been resolved or is there any expectation that they will be resolved in the nearest future, it is possible to summarize provisional results of the year.

The situation in Libya, a center of tensions in the Mediterranean, is deteriorating with fail of the UN-led peace initiatives. Local ISIS branch is deeply entrenched in the war-torn country. It’s expected that flow of foreign militants into Libya from the Syrian and Iraqi directions will grow if Syria and Iraq continue successfully their anti-terrorist operations fueled by the Russian Air Forces’ presence in the Middle East region.

Separately, ISIS increased activity in the Sinai Peninsula destabilizing the domestic situation in Egypt which tries to exercise multi-vector foreign policy in the region which not satisfy its Western-backed neighbors. The local destructive forces are also attempting to destabilize Egypt, de facto, assisting the militants. In turn, Cairo is strengthening its security efforts.

In the Sahel region the humanitarian situation remains extremely fragile while the number of terrorist attacks is increasing. Boko Haram militants stated allegiance to ISIS remain the most dangerous terrorist threat there.

The European migration crisis is especial acute. Since 2013, a cruel competition has been going among migrants, European governments and local societies. Immigrants concentrated in the entry point states move to the countries of the Central Europe (Germany, France) and the North Europe (United Kingdom, Sweden, Norway), spread over the whole union. The European governments impacted by critical look of the public opinion and the economic crisis have been trying to stop this process using the more and more gray approaches based on the wide notion of nation security concepts and the disregarding of human rights. However, the para-military operations in the Mediterranean sea and the usage of unadapted camps only conducts an additional exacerbation of migrants often pushed from their homes by the circumstances of insuperable force. In turn, inability of governments to solve the ongoing crisis conducts the anger of European citizens and contributes to the growth of radical parties and movements.

Thus, the migration crisis has also triggered additional disputes between the national elites and European bureaucracy. European nations are faced with a dilemma: to surrender under the pressure of the main European powers and the eurocracy or try to defend what remains of their unique national sovereignty. The projects as the National Front Party, Marine Le Pen, aspires to renew its own national goals are strongly opposed by the mainstream European establishment.

Meanwhile, NATO is continuing military build-up in Europe stationing additional forces, exercising numerous drills and even attempting to move nuclear warheads to the Russian borders. In early December 2015, Poland’s government issued a number of statements concerning the country’s participation in the NATO Nuclear Sharing program, which allows NATO member countries to deliver US nuclear warheads in wartime, using their own means of delivery.

The smoldering conflict in Donbass, a corrupt government and unregulated paramilitary groups consisting of criminals and radicals make Ukraine a zone of instability in Europe. The situation is worsening due to the unavoidable economic collapse and the Kiev’s government inability to negotiate.

The whole Middle East is affected by the major crisis. Syria, Iraq, Yemen and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are its core, but the destabilization has been spreading. Turkey is affected by terrorism, Kurdish insurgency and economical instability. Israel is involved into the conflict against Palestinian. Saudi Arabia is involved into a protracted war in Yemen and affected by Yemeni cross-border raids. – FPD Middle East Big Game

Separately, the Russian military operation in Syria marked a loss of the US’s monopoly on the recourse to force. Now, the US and its partners are lossing the leadership in the Middle East region. The success of the alternative anti-ISIS coalition will mean that the US could lose the leadership in a great part of the world, in Eurasia. For Western-backed states as Turkey and Saudi Arabia it means decrease of their influence in the region.

Turkey has been shaping its approach in the region. It includes an additional rapprochement with Saudi Arabia and Qatar which leads to a hard anti-Iranian policy amid the ongoing cooling in relations with Russia.

Meanwhile, the US has sent ground forces, including special operations units, into the region. And such countries as France, the UK and Germany has begun to operate more actively in the region. It seems that NATO powers have realized the strategy aimed at Assad’s ouster by a diverse range of militant groups including ISIS has failed.

In this case, the NATO allies urgently need a new plan to hold control at least of the northern oil corridor from Iraq and try to take advantage of this opportunity to involve Russia in a long expensive war, in other words, to accomplish that which they failed to do in Ukraine. If the NATO contingent tries to occupy crucial infrastructure including oilfields, it could easily lead to an open military conflict in the region.

The borders between the Central Asian states and Afghanistan have become increasingly active in terms of militant, diplomatic and security activity. Militant activity has increased in northern Afghanistan in recent months, punctuated by Taliban forces’ capture of the town of Kunduz in late September and ISIS militants have been gathering momentum and concentrating there. ISIS militants see this region as a foothold for further expansion into Central Asia. The important fact is they don’t fight foreign or Afghan government troops. They conserve and gather strength. The threat is also growing in the South. The number of ISIS militants has been growing at the borders of Tajikistan and Turkmenistan amid serious domestic problems of the Central Asian states.

In this case, the Central Asia is attracting attention of the key regional players: Russia, the US and China. While the all sides state that they are interested in the regional stability, the Washington administration is clearly seeking to expand in the Central Asian countries amid the failing Afghan projects.

The tensions in the South China Sea is a visible part of the ongoing US-China standoff in the Asia-Pacific region. The Obama’s “pivot to Asia” and the US newly released maritime strategy de facto mean that the Washington has taken a course on a long-standing countering of the China’s influence in the region. A core but often unstated component of U.S. national strategy is to maintain global superiority at sea. By controlling the seas, the United States is able to deploy military power and to control the movement goods worldwide. In the Indo-Asia-Pacific region the US has been rapidly building political, economic and military alliances to balance the raise of the China’s economic and military power. Beijing can’t ignore this fact. The China’s strategy maritime strategy aimed to defend its eastern coastal area and crucial maritime routes in the Indian Ocean challenges the American approach.

Another hot point in the region is the Korean Peninsula. 2015 was marked by a new standoff between the North and South along the Demilitarized Zone conducting a complicated environment. The situation is further challenged by an aggressive South Korean stance supported by the US. According to Korean military sources the US has been considering to dispatch B-52 or a B-2 Spirit stealth bomber and a nuclear-powered submarine currently stationed at Japan’s Yokosuka naval base. The US has previously dispatched its military assets to the peninsula to support Seoul in its stand-off with Pyongyang two years ago. In April 2013 it had flown B-2 stealth bombers. The tensions in the Korean Peninsula will be definitely used in the ongoing US-China dispute for the leadership in the Asia-Pacific.

Generally, 2015 was a year of crisis escalation and a fresh source of tension in international relations. The main directions of aggravation of the international situation have come into full force. However, last year was only the beginning when the system of international relations started to rebuild. Unfortunately, international practice revealed that global actors were not able to cooperate fruitfully to overcome mounting differences. The establishment took on the usual clannish spirit and protected the corporate interests of the crony elites, while the election race in the United States and the deepening economic recession fueled the flame. The entire year was steeped in the smell of gunpowder, but had not yet enveloped the world in the smoke of a global war.

In 2016, we should expect continued tension in international relations. The number of local conflicts will not be reduced. There are high chances that there will be a significant escalation of the conflict in the eastern Ukraine. In the spring of 2016 the situation in Central Asia is expected to be destabilized, and Afghanistan could once again turn into a full-scale civil war. The zone of conflict in the Arabian Peninsula will expand. Turkey is at high risk of civil war. In turn, the intensity of the fighting in Syria and Iraq will decline or remain at current levels.

2016 will be marked by the growing probability of  a wider global conflict. The turbulent climate in the South China Sea, the deployment of nuclear weapons in Europe, the colonial style of US foreign policy and its double standards are capable of bringing the world to the brink of nuclear catastrophe in the near future.

Bolsas

Empieza un nuevo año y las bolsas tiemblan y hay pánico y rechinar de dientes. Esta mañana el índice de la Bolsa de Shangai cerró 7% abajo (ver figura de arriba). Hay susto en las capitales; ¿será este el Gran Crash que todo buen apocalíptico está esperando?

Acá van dos notas relacionadas, de los chicos de Zero Hedge. La primera alude al sacudón de hoy en China y a sus réplicas globales. La segunda nota es más general, y nos dice que todo concluye al fin, que la historia es la de siempre, que todo lo que sube tiene que bajar. Los chabones arriesgan un número para la Gran Corrección que se espera: 40-55%. Veremos.

Título: Happy New Year: Global Stocks Crash After China Is Halted Limit Down In Worst Start To Year In History

Texto: It all started off relatively well: oil and US equity futures were buoyant on hopes Iran and Saudi Arabia would break out in a bloody conflict any minute boosting the net worth of shareholders of the military industrial complex, and then, out of nowhere, like a depressed China in a bull shop, the "mainland" crashed the party following a terrible manufacturing PMI report, which sent Chinese stocks sliding slowly at first, then very fast.

So fast, in fact that as we reported last night, on the very first day China's new circuit breaker mechanism became operational, it was promptly tested out and led to a marketwide trading halt at 1:34pm local after the Shanghai Composite crashed by the 7% limit. Earlier trading was halted for 15 minutes after the CSI Index - which comprises large capitalization companies listed in Shanghai and Shenzhen - dropped 5 percent.  This was the worst start of trading in Chinese stock market in history, and oddly enough, was something that not a single pundit predicted as part of their oh so very entertaining year-end forecasts.

And just in case crashing stock markets was not enough, the Chinese Yuan likewise crashed by over 0.6%, sliding north of 6.5325 at 4:50 local time after trading hours were extended and when the traditional PBOC intervention to calm the selloff did not appear in late day trading. The USDCNH was up to a whopping 6.6272 as China's devaluation accelerates with every passing day.

Slammed by the risk off sentiment, the main global carry trade currency, the Japanese yen, rose against all 31 of its major peers as investors sought the safest assets after China factory data highlighted weakness in the world's second-largest economy.

As a result of the Chinese collapse on day one, global equities dropped after the Chinese market fireworks, as well as geopolitical fears after Saudi Arabia severed ties with Iran, spurring a flight to haven assets. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank as much as 2.2 percent, the most since Sept.29. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell as much as 2.8 percent after gaining 7 percent in 2015. Last year the MSCI All Country World Index fell for the first year in four.

"It’s a nasty start for the year,” Peter Kinsella, a senior currency strategist at Commerzbank AG in London, tolf Bloomberg. “It might be the New Year, but old problems remain. Chinese growth concerns have not gone away.”

And then the Developing Nations were also routed: as Bloomberg points out, the slump in DMs harks back to financial turmoil in August that was fueled by China’s devaluation of the yuan. It shows the pace of growth in the world’s second-largest economy will remain key for markets in 2016 after a slowdown last year dragged emerging markets lower and sparked a slump in commodities prices.

So as we start the new year, Dow futures are down 300 points, the E-mini is down 34 points and just barely holding on to 2000, Asia is tumbling, Europe is crashing, and gold is up. At least  oil is so far green but just barely, up 1.5% at last check.

S&P 500 futures down 1.6% to 2007

Stoxx 600 down 2.4% to 357

FTSE 100 down 2.1% to 6109

DAX down 3.5% to 10362

German 10Yr yield down 5bps to 0.58%

Italian 10Yr yield down 5bps to 1.55%

Spanish 10Yr yield down 6bps to 1.72%

MSCI Asia Pacific down 2.1% to 129

Nikkei 225 down 3.1% to 18451

Hang Seng down 2.7% to 21327

Shanghai Composite down 6.9% to 3296

S&P/ASX 200 down 0.5% to 5270

US 10-yr yield down 5bps to 2.22%

Dollar Index down 0.55% to 98.14

WTI Crude futures up 1% to $37.40

Brent Futures up 1.6% to $37.88

Gold spot up 1.2% to $1,074

Silver spot up 1.3% to $13.99

In short, Happy New Year from the Federal Reserve, which is hiking because the "economy is strong"!

* * *

A more detailed look at regional markets, shows that the bloodbath started in Asia where equity markets begin the year negative following the losses on Wall St. in its last trading day of 2015, while further disappointing data from China added to the region's risk averse tone. Nikkei 225 (-3.1%) declined by over 3%, while Shanghai Comp (-6.85%) triggered the circuit breaker. Hang Seng (-2.8%) was also weighed on heavily in the wake of the poor China PMI data, where the official figure contracted for a 5th month. As a guide, a newly imposed Chinese circuit breaker means that if the CSI 300 falls 5% all Chinese equities will be halted for 15 minutes and then closed for the session if losses extend to 7%. Losses in the ASX 200 (-0.5%) have been capped by gains in the energy sector on increased tensions between Saudi and Iran. 10yr JGBs traded marginally higher as safe-havens were supported amid losses in riskier assets, although gains have been capped as participants are side-lined ahead of tomorrow's 10yr auction, while the BoJ were also relatively conservative in today's open market operation.

Top Asian News

China’s Two-Speed Economy Stays Intact as Manufacturing Weakens: Caixin China Dec. manufacturing PMI 48.2 vs est. 48.9

New World Said to Plan Buyout Bid for $7 Billion China Unit: Co. plans offer to take its $7b China unit private

Pimco Drawn to India as Asia’s Best Bonds Seen Rallying in 2016: Favorite destination for fixed-income investments, PineBridge says

Ant Financial Said to Seek At Least $1.5 Billion in New Funding: Seeking at least 10b yuan ($1.5b ) in a second round of fundraising ahead of a planned IPO, a person familiar said

In Europe, 2016 also has got off to a somewhat rocky start, with Euro Stoxx lower by around 2.8% as risk off sentiment is rife around financial markets. Much of the dampened sentiment this morning stems from China overnight, whereby newly imposed circuit breakers were triggered for Chinese equities in the wake of disappointing domestic manufacturing PMI data, while also of note the regional German CPIs have printed generally lower than previous. Given the focus on China, materials are the notable underperformer on a sector breakdown.

Top European News

U.K. Factories Disappoint With Slowest Growth in Three Months: U.K. manufacturing unexpectedly cooled in December

Ferrari Spinoff Puts Focus on Marchionne’s Fiat Revamp: Ferrari opened at EU43/shr in Milan following separation

Orange, Bouygues May Reach Takeover Deal in 1Q, JDD Reports: Cos. signed confidentiality agreement on Dec. 24 to start official negotiations

Continental May Lose Sales on VW Exhaust Scandal, CEO Tells BZ: Suppliers not involved in diesel exhaust probe, co. not under investigation anywhere by regulatory agencies

In terms of fixed income, Bunds have notably benefitted from the risk off sentiment, opening higher at the Eurex open and trading above the 158.50 level throughout the European morning. Bunds lead the way higher in terms of Europe, with the spread against most of their European counterparts wider this morning.

In FX, the JPY is the notable gainer in a flight to safety bid, while the USD has seen mixed flow to the benefit of the likes of EUR and GBP later in the session. The yen touched 118.70 per dollar, the strongest level since Oct. 15 and the Swiss franc was also among the biggest gainers among haven currencies. Australia’s dollar slid to 72.13 U.S. cents, down 1 percent from Dec. 31, while New Zealand’s currency was 0.9 percent weaker.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, which tracks the greenback against 10 major peers, slipped 0.2 percent. The gauge climbed 9 percent in 2015, a third straight gain.  Elsewhere NOK is also a notable underperformer today, reaching 1 year lows against the EUR and 23 year lows against the SEK, however given that the energy complex is relatively unchanged, it appears to be more technically driven.

Elsewhere, tier 1 data was released out of Europe in the form of manufacturing PMI's, in which Eurozone (M/M 53.2 vs. Exp. 53.1 Prey. 53.1) and German (M/M 53.2 vs. Exp. 53.0 Prey. 53.0) printed a slight beat and a miss on expectations respectively. While UK manufacturing PMI (M/M 51.9 vs. Exp. 52.8 Prey. 52.7, Rev. 52.5) missed expectations and caused a small downtick in GBP/USD.

Commodities have too been in flux, with spot gold (USD +11.90) outperforming amid the risk off sentiment, while Brent and WTI futures trade in mild positive territory, however shrugging off the latest escalation in tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Commentators have suggested that the impact may be somewhat limited, with both countries eager not to cut output. U.S. crude added 0.9 percent after Saudi Arabia’s embassy in Tehran was attacked to protest the Saudis’ execution of a prominent Shiite cleric.

Oil last week capped the biggest two-year loss on record amid speculation a global glut will be prolonged as U.S. crude stockpiles expanded at a record rate and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries abandoned output limits.

Base metals fell, with nickel and zinc sliding more than 2.5 percent on the Chinese manufacturing data. Copper fell 2.1 percent.

Global Top News

China Halts Stock Trading After 7% Tumble in Worst Start to Year: Weak manufacturing data, end to share-sale ban spark rout

Saudis Sever Diplomatic Ties With Iran in Row Over Execution: Move follows Saudi execution of prominent Shiite cleric, attack on Saudi embassy in Tehran

Shire Said in Advanced Talks to Acquire Drugmaker Baxalta: Cash-and-stock offer of ~$32b before debt could be announced as soon as this week

Fidelity Drops Credit-Card Partners AmEx, BofA: Visa, U.S. Bancorp to take over as Fidelity card’s network, issuer

Euro-Area Factories End 2015 With Strongest Growth in 20 Months: Manufacturing accelerated in December as rising new orders propelled output

Automakers’ December Surge Seen Wrapping Record U.S. Sales Year: Carmakers drew customers with year-end and holiday promotions

Fed’s Fischer Supports Higher Rates If Markets Overheating: Raise would be appropriate if asset prices “excessively high”

Macau Casinos Gain on Better-Than-Expected December Revenue: Gross gaming revenue fell 21.2% in Dec.; result was better than most market expectations of a 20% to 28% decline, according to DS Kim, an analyst at JPMorgan

Tesla Hits Low End of Goal, Shipping 17,400 Autos in Quarter: Delivered 50,580 Model S sedans and Model X sport utility vehicles in 2015

Force Stays With ‘Star Wars’ as Disney Film Remains No. 1: “The Force Awakens” generated $88.3m in sales in U.S. and Canadian theaters, for a domestic total so far of $740.3m

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

2016 has got off to a somewhat rocky start, with Euro Stoxx lower by around 2.8% as risk off sentiment is rife around financial markets

FX markets have seen similar sentiment this morning, with JPY the notable gainer in a flight to safety bid

Looking ahead, the notable highlights out of the US today come in the form of manufacturing PMI, construction spending and ISM manufacturing

Treasuries rally led by 5Y to start the new year as global stocks plunge led by China after weaker than forecast manufacturing PMI; CSI Index halted after diving 7%.

China’s official PMI edged up to 49.7 in Dec. from three- year low of 49.6 in Nov., while Caixin China Manufacturing PMI index showed a drop to 48.2 from 48.6; both numbers less than forecast

Saudi Arabia severed ties with Iran in the biggest meltdown in relations between the two Middle Eastern power brokers in almost three decades, raising the specter of deepening conflicts across the volatile region. Saudi govt gave Iran’s ambassador 48 hours to leave after protesters set its embassy in Tehran on fire at the weekend following the execution of cleric Nimr al- Nimr, a critic of the kingdom’s treatment of its Shiite minority

For Europe, 2016 threatens to be a replay of 2015, with the migration crisis moving into a tense new phase, open internal borders under siege, Britain potentially heading for the EU exit and a hesitant Germany forced, once again, to act as the political and economic backstop

U.K. manufacturing unexpectedly cooled in Dec., with Markit’s factory index falling to three-month low of 51.9, less than expected, from a revised 52.5 in Nov.

Fed’s Stanley Fischer said it might be necessary for the central bank to hike rates if financial markets were overheating, though the first line of defense should be using regulatory tools to prevent bubbles from developing

ECB policy makers insist they’re standing by their mandate to keep the annual rate of price gains just under 2% over the medium term even as that becomes increasingly hard to achieve

$1.5t IG priced in 2015, $247b HY. BofAML Corporate Master Index OAS +1bp to +173, YTD range 180/129. High Yield Master II OAS holds at +695; YTD range 733/438

Sovereign bond yields lower. Asian and European stocks plunge, U.S. equity-index futures slide. Crude oil and gold higher, copper falls

US Economic Calendar

9:45am: Markit Manufacturing PMI, Dec., est. 51.1 (prior 51.3)

10:00am: ISM Manufacturing, Dec., est. 49.0 (prior 48.6); ISM Prices Paid, Dec., est. 36.0 (prior 35.5)

10:00am: Construction Spending, Nov., est. 0.7% (prior 1.0%)

DB's Jim Reid concludes the rest of the overnight recap in his first 2016 edition

It’s straight to the overnight session in Asia where bourses have started the New Year very much on the back foot as softer than expected manufacturing data in China and escalating geopolitical concerns in the Middle East has helped fuel steep declines across the board. In China the Shanghai Comp is currently down -3.94% as we type after the non-official Caixin manufacturing PMI printed at 48.2 last month, a decline of 0.4pts and well below expectations of 48.9. It also marked the 10th straight sub-50 reading.

Meanwhile overnight headlines are also being dominated by the news that Saudi Arabia has severed its diplomatic ties with Iran. This comes after Saudi Arabia’s embassy was attacked in Tehran following the protests over the execution of a Shia cleric by the Saudi’s. Along with the China data that’s sent bourses down with the Nikkei (-2.80%), Hang Seng (-2.31%), Kospi (-1.62%) and ASX (-0.55%) all lower while S&P 500 futures are currently down over half a percent. Asia and Australia credit indices are both a couple of basis points wider although those geopolitical concerns have helped fuel a bid for Oil where both WTI and Brent are up over 2%.

Recapping briefly how markets closed out the final trading day of 2015 on Thursday last week. Equity markets closed on a sour note with losses for bourses on both sides of the pond. Indeed the S&P 500 finished -0.94% which, excluding dividends, meant the index closed in negative territory for the year (-0.73%). The Dow (-1.02%) and Nasdaq (-1.15%) closed lower also while it was a similar story in Europe as we saw the Stoxx 600 finish the session down - 0.51%. These falls came despite a better finish for the Oil complex where both WTI (+1.20%) and Brent (+2.25%) nudged back above the $37 level, although the same couldn’t be said for metals where Aluminum (-1.37%) and Copper (-0.63%) in particular failed to make any ground.

The last batch of economic data for the year was generally disappointing. Of particular note, the December Chicago PMI plunged 5.8pts to a below market 42.9 (vs. 50.0 expected) which was the lowest reading since July 2009. The ISM Milwaukee also printed sub-50 as expected at 48.5, although this was up over 3pts from the November reading while on the employment front there was a bigger than expected rise in the latest initial jobless claims print to 287k, up 20k from the previous print. The data had minimal impact on the rates market with US 10y yields closing out the year at 2.270% (down 2.5bps on the day) and just 10bps above where they closed 2014.

Meanwhile, Spain has been in focus over the weekend with the news from the Catalonia region that Acting President Artur Mas has failed in his attempt to win sufficient support from the anti-capitalist CUP party. The latest twist raises some uncertainty for the region now with Bloomberg noting that Mas’s Junts pel Si has until January 9th to establish a new government or instead run the risk of facing fresh elections which would be called in March. This of course is in addition to the overall political uncertainty in Spain itself after the inconclusive recent general election on December 20th.

***

Título: This Time Isn't Different

Texto: Last year ended with a whimper on Wall Street. The S&P 500 was down 1% for the year, down 4% from its all-time high in May, and no higher than it was 13 months ago at the end of QE3. The Wall Street shysters and their mainstream media mouthpieces declare 2016 to be a rebound year, with stocks again delivering double digit returns. When haven’t they touted great future returns. They touted them in 2000 and 2007 too. No one earning their paycheck on Wall Street or on CNBC will point out the most obvious speculative bubble in history. John Hussman has been pointing it out for the last two years as the Fed created bubble has grown ever larger. Those still embracing the bubble will sit down to a banquet of consequences in 2016.

At the peak of every speculative bubble, there are always those who have persistently embraced the story that gave the bubble its impetus in the first place. As a result, the recent past always belongs to them, if only temporarily. Still, the future inevitably belongs to somebody else. By the completion of the market cycle, no less than half (and often all) of the preceding speculative advance is typically wiped out.

Hussman referenced the work of Reinhart & Rogoff when they produced their classic This Time is Different. Every boom and bust have the same qualities. The hubris and arrogance of financial “experts” and government apparatchiks makes them think they are smarter than those before them. They always declare this time to be different due to some new technology or reason why valuations don’t matter. The issuance of speculative debt and seeking of yield due to Federal Reserve suppression of interest rates always fuels the boom and acts as the fuse for the inevitable explosive bust.

In 2009, during the depths of the last crisis that followed such speculation, economists Carmen Reinhart and Kenneth Rogoff detailed the perennial claim that feeds these episodes in their book, This Time is Different:

“Our immersion in the details of crises that have arisen over the past eight centuries and in data on them has led us to conclude that the most commonly repeated and most expensive investment advice ever given in the boom just before a financial crisis stems from the perception that ‘this time is different.’ That advice, that the old rules of valuation no longer apply, is usually followed up with vigor. Financial professionals and, all too often, government leaders explain that we are doing things better than before, we are smarter, and we have learned from past mistakes. Each time, society convinces itself that the current boom, unlike the many booms that preceded catastrophic collapses in the past, is built on sound fundamentals, structural reforms, technological innovation, and good policy.”

“The essence of the this-time-is-different syndrome is simple. It is rooted in the firmly held belief that financial crises are something that happen to other people in other countries at other times; crises do not happen, here and now to us… If there is one common theme to the vast range of crises we consider, it is that, excessive debt accumulation, whether it be by the government, banks, corporations, or consumers, often poses greater systemic risks than it seems during a boom.”

The third speculative boom in the last fifteen years fueled by Federal Reserve idiocy is about to become a the third bust in the last fifteen years. The unwashed masses who believe what they are told by CNBC are going to be pretty pissed off when they lose half their retirement savings again. None of their highly paid financial advisors are telling them to expect 0% returns over the next twelve years, but that is their fate. The numbers don’t lie over the long haul.

My view on “this time” is clear. I remain convinced that the U.S. financial markets, particularly equities and low-grade debt, are in a late-stage top formation of the third speculative bubble in 15 years. On the basis of the valuation measures most strongly correlated with actual subsequent market returns (and that have fully retained that correlation even across recent market cycles), current extremes imply 40-55% market losses over the completion of the current market cycle, with zero nominal and negative real total returns for the S&P 500 on a 10-12 year horizon. These are not worst-case scenarios, but run-of-the-mill expectations.

Hussman recently saw the brilliant take down of Wall Street – The Big Short – and thought it was a highly accurate portrayal of the rampant criminality of the Wall Street banks. They created fraudulent mortgage products, doled them out to suckers, and created complex toxic derivatives, selling them to clients while shorting them at the same time. Hussman’s only problem with the movie was that it left the true villain off the hook with nary a mention. Wall Street could not and would not have created the trillions of fraudulent products if the Federal Reserve had not kept interest rates at 1% and had performed their regulatory obligations of overseeing the banks.

The answer is straightforward: as the bubble expanded toward its inevitable collapse, the role of Wall Street was to create a massive supply of new “product” in the form of sketchy mortgage-backed securities, but the demand for that product was the result of the Federal Reserve’s insistence on holding interest rates down after the tech bubble crashed, starving investors of safe Treasury returns, and driving them to seek higher yields elsewhere.

See, the Fed reacted to the collapse of the tech bubble and the accompanying recession holding short-term rates to just 1%, provoking yield-seeking by income-starved investors. They found that extra yield in seemingly “safe” mortgage securities. But as the demand outstripped the available supply, Wall Street rushed to create more product, and generate associated fees, by lending to anyone with a pulse (hence “teaser” loans offering zero interest payments for the first 2 years, and ads on TV and radio hawking “No income documentation needed! We’ll get you approved fast!”; “No credit? No problem! You have a loan!”; “Own millions of dollars in real estate with no money down!”). The loans were then “financially engineered” to make the resulting mortgage bonds appear safer than the underlying credits were. The housing bubble was essentially a massive, poorly regulated speculative response to Federal Reserve actions.

And now the Fed has done it again. The stock market on most valuation measures is the most overvalued in world history. The rolling tsunami is about to wipe away the life savings of millions for the third time in fifteen years.

The current, obscenely overvalued QE-bubble is simply the next reckless response to Federal Reserve actions, which followed the global financial crisis, which resulted when the housing bubble collapsed, which was driven by excessively activist Federal Reserve policy, which followed the collapse of the tech bubble. As my wife Terri put it “It’s like a rolling tsunami.”

The pompous professionals inhabiting the gleaming skyscrapers in the NYC financial district are still arrogantly ignoring the imminent bust headed their way. The Fed juiced gains over the last six years will evaporate just as they did in 2007-2009. Cheerleading for and denying the existence of the bubble is a common them among those whose paycheck depends upon them doing so.

One had to suffer fools parroting things like “being early is the same thing as being wrong” until the collapse demonstrated that, actually no, it’s really not. The 2007-2009 collapse wiped out the entire total return of the S&P 500, in excess of risk-free Treasury bills, all the way back to June 1995.

Since two crashes weren’t enough to teach the lesson, here we are again, at what’s likely to be seen in hindsight as the last gasp of the extended top formation of the third speculative bubble in 15 years. The median stock actually peaked in late-2014.

And now for the bad news. At current market valuations, a run of the mill bust will result in a 50% decline. A bust that puts valuations back to 1982 bear market lows would result in a decline exceeding 75%. Whether it is a violent collapse or long slow decline, there is no doubt that returns over the next decade will be non-existent. This is not good news for Boomers or GenX entering or approaching retirement.

For the S&P 500 to lose half of its value over the completion of the current market cycle would merely be a run-of-the-mill outcome given current extremes. A truly worst-case scenario, at least by post-war standards, would be for the S&P 500 to first lose half of its value, and then to lose another 55% from there, for a 78% cumulative loss, which is what would have to occur in order to reach the 0.45 multiple we observed in 1982. We do not expect that sort of outcome. But to rule out a completely pedestrian 40-55% market loss over the completion of the current cycle is to entirely dismiss market history.At present, investors should expect a 12-year total return from the S&P 500 of essentially zero.

The reckless herd has been in control for the last few years, but their recklessness is going to get them slaughtered. Corporate profits are plunging. Labor participation continues to fall. A global recession is in progress. The strong U.S. dollar is crushing exports and profits of international corporations. Real household income remains stagnant, while healthcare, rent, home prices, education, and a myriad of other daily living expenses relentlessly rises. The world is a powder keg, with tensions rising ever higher in the Middle East, Ukraine, Europe, and China. The lessons of history scream for caution at this moment in time, not recklessness. 2016 will be a year of reckoning for the reckless herd.

There’s no question that at speculative extremes, recent history always temporarily belongs to the reckless herd that has ignored concerns about valuation and risk at every turn. Fortunately, the future has always belonged to those who take discipline, analysis, and the lessons of history seriously. Decide which investor you want to be.

Pasito a pasito

Todos los días, un pasito más cerca de la guerra. Ahora es un aumento de las tensiones entre los aliados árabes del Imperio con el aliado de Rusia y China en Medio Oriente, Irán. Leemos en Russia Today en español: 

Título: Todos contra Irán: ¿Qué consecuencias tendrá la crisis diplomática en la región?

Texto: La tensión en el golfo Pérsico alcanzó un nuevo punto álgido, después de que Arabia Saudita ejecutara el pasado sábado a un clérigo chiíta pese a las numerosas peticiones de Irán para que no lo hiciera.

El pasado domingo el Ministerio de Exteriores de Arabia Saudita anunció su decisión de romper relaciones diplomáticas con Irán, acusando a Teherán de apoyar a la organización terrorista Al Qaeda. Las tensiones se elevaron entre los dos países tras la ejecución del prominente clérigo chiita Nimr al-Nimr por parte de Riad.

Siguiendo los pasos de Arabia Saudita, Baréin y Sudán anunciaron este lunes que también cortaban los lazos con Irán. Además, Emiratos Árabes Unidos ha comunicado que limitará las relaciones diplomáticas con este país.

Los medios especulan sobre las consecuencias que tendrá la escalada del conflicto entre Riad y Teherán.

Complicación de la situación en Oriente Medio

Lyse Doucet, jefa de corresponsales de la BBC, señala que la ruptura de relaciones diplomáticas entre los dos países que representan a chiitas (Irán) y suníes (Arabia Saudita) influirá en gran medida a toda la región de Oriente Medio, ya que cada uno de ellos apoya a fuerzas opuestas en diferentes conflictos en la zona, como en Siria y Yemen, por ejemplo.

La consecuencia más grave de la escalada de las tensiones entre Riad y Teherán puede ser el aumento de la brecha entre suníes y chiitas, según lo adelantó en un comunicado la responsable de Política Exterior de la Unión Europea, Federica Mogherini.

De este modo, el deterioro de relaciones entre Irán y Arabia Saudita alejará la solución de los conflictos que están en curso en la región.

El aumento de los precios del petróleo

Según informa CNBC, los precios del crudo han subido la mañana de este lunes, en las primeras horas de negociaciones del año 2016, como resultado del conflicto entre ambos países, frente a una perspectiva de la interrupción del suministro.

El aumento de tensiones entre dos productores de la OPEP preocupa a los inversores porque la mayor parte del petróleo de Arabia Saudita proviene de su provincia oriental, que está dominada por chiitas, explicó el analista principal de petróleo y gas de Bernstein, Neil Beveridge. Según él, esta zona podría verse afectada por el incremento de las tensiones entre los dos países.

¿Habrá guerra?

El investigador principal del Instituto de Problemas de Seguridad Internacional de la Academia de Ciencias de Rusia, Alexéi Fenenko, se mostró rotundo en declaraciones al portal ruso 'Svobódnaya Pressa': "No creo que haya una guerra entre Arabia Saudita e Irán. Más bien, las tensiones se reducirán a los conflictos en los territorios de Yemen y Siria".

No obstante, un conflicto a gran escala podría estallar si los sauditas siguen influyendo en la reducción de los precios del petróleo, advierte el analista.  

Irán: el Imperio del Caos ataca de nuevo

La política comunicacional del Imperio parece ser, últimamente, la siguiente: “No me importa lo que dije ayer; ahora digo otra cosa; si no te gusta, jodete”. Claro, no es la mejor forma de hacer amigos en la comunidad internacional, pero esos detalles al Imperio lo tienen sin cuidado. Ayer, por ejemplo, le levantó las sanciones a Irán; hoy le impone unas nuevas. Cualquier excusa es buena, como verán. Las dos primeras noticias proceden del portal informativo libanés Al Manar:

Título: EEUU lanza nueva campaña de mentiras contra Irán: misiles y pasdaranes

Texto: Era algo esperado: la conclusión del acuerdo nuclear de Irán no ha puesto fin a la política de hostigamiento y sanciones de EEUU contra la República Islámica.

Antes de la firma del acuerdo, era el dossier nuclear iraní, acusado falsamente de buscar objetivos militares, el tema objeto de una campaña de propaganda estadounidense. Esta campaña servía para aprobar sanciones contra este país e internacionalizarlas.

En la actualidad, la Administración norteamericana ha lanzado nuevas acusaciones con los mismos objetivos. Ellas se refieren a las pruebas de misiles balísticos que los iraníes efectuaron el 10 de octubre y el 21 de noviembre. Los norteamericanos afirman que estos misiles tienen una “naturaleza ofensiva”, algo que Irán ha negado, y que podrían servir para transportar ojivas nucleares, una acusación absurda después de la firma del acuerdo nuclear. Irán ha señalado que están en su pleno derecho de probar tales armas y que no acepta restricciones en su programa de misiles.

Esta negativa iraní iraní no ha hecho nada para disuadir a los norteamericanos, que han hablado de la imposición de nuevas sanciones contra Irán, señaló el Wall Street Journal.

En cuanto a la otra acusación lanzada en estos últimos días, ella se refiere a supuestos pruebas de misiles efectuados el pasado 26 de diciembre por la Fuerza Naval del Cuerpo de Guardianes de la Revolución Islámica (CGRI) o pasdaranes en las proximidades de navíos norteamericanos y franceses en el Estrecho de Ormuz.

Como es habitual en este tipo de campañas, dicha alegación fue lanzada por un medio, en este caso la cadena de televisión estadounidense NBC, y luego confirmada por un responsable militar norteamericano bajo la cobertura del anonimato.

Esta información señalaba que un misil cayó a  menos de 1,5 kms del portaaviones norteamericano USS Harry S. Truman a su paso por el estrecho.

Sin embargo, el CGRI ha señalado que tales afirmaciones no son más que mentiras. “La fuerza naval del CGRI no llevó a cabo ningún ejercicio durante la semana en cuestión mientras que los norteamericanos afirman que un misil fue lanzado en la zona del Estrecho de Ormuz”, afirmó el general Ramezan Sharif, en el sitio oficial del Cuerpo.

“La publicación de tales mentiras en la situación actual equivale más bien a una operación psicológica”, señaló el portavoz del CGRI.

“La seguridad y la paz en el Golfo revisten una importancia estratégica para Irán. Los Guardianes llevan a cabo en tiempo programado y según su propio calendario ejercicios para mejorar su estado de preparación”, añadió.

Como sucedió anteriormente con el programa nuclear, los desmentidos iraníes no han servido para disuadir a los norteamericanos de continuar difundiendo sus afirmaciones propagandísticas. Nada ha cambiado en la política estadounidense agresiva contra Irán.

Así pues, después del cierre del tema nuclear, otros dos dossiers han sido abiertos por Washington: el tema de los misiles balísticos y el de los pasdaranes.

***

Título: Rohani: Programa de misiles de Irán será acelerado en respuesta a sanciones

Texto: El presidente iraní, Hassan Rohani, ordenó el jueves al ministro de Defensa, general Hossein Dehqan, que fortalezca y acelere el desarrollo de la capacidad misilística del país en respuesta al anuncio de nuevas sanciones contra el programa de defensa de Irán.

El presidente Rohani condenó “las políticas hostiles de EEUU y su injerencia ilegítima e ilegal contra el derecho de Irán a desarrollar su poder defensivo” y ordenó al ministro de Defensa acelerar la producción de varios tipos de misiles que las Fuerzas Armadas de Irán necesitan.

“En un momento en que EEUU parece querer incluir los nombres de nuevas personas y firmas en su lista de sanciones, en línea con sus hostiles políticas y su injerencia ilegal e ilegítima en el derecho de la República Islámica de Irán a reforzar su poder defensivo, el programa de producción de misiles que las Fuerzas Armadas necesitan continuará de una forma más rápida y seria”, dijo el presidente Rohani en una orden escrita al ministro de Defensa.

El decreto del presidente Rohani se produjo en reacción al anuncio del Departamento del Tesoro de que está preparando sanciones contra dos compañías iraníes que ayudan al desarrollo del programa de misiles.

El decreto de Rohani también señala que el Ministerio de Defensa iraní iniciará nuevos programas de producción de misiles a una escala mucho mayor en el caso de que Washington continúe con su política de sanciones contra las industrias de defensa de Irán.

“En el caso de que tales medidas equivocadas e intervencionistas sean repetidas por EEUU, el Ministerio de Defensa hará uso de todas sus posibilidades para iniciar un nuevo planeamiento y desarrollo de la capacidad misilística del país”, indicó el presidente Rohani, añadiendo que la capacidad de defensa de Irán contribuye a la estabilidad y seguridad regionales y no es una amenaza para ningún estado o parte. Ella busca “salvaguardar la soberanía, independencia e integridad territorial del país y combatir el fenómeno perverso del terrorismo y el extremismo en línea con los intereses regionales y globales”.

Él añadió que Irán “nunca negociará con nadie sobre su poder defensivo, incluyendo el programa de misiles” y nunca aceptará ninguna restricción en este campo”, a la vez que enfatizó el derecho legítimo de Irán a la defensa.

Según responsables norteamericanos, EEUU está preparando sanciones contra empresas e individuos en Irán, Hong Kong y los EAU por supuestos vínculos con el programa de misiles de Irán, una acción que es vista por muchos, dentro y fuera de Irán, como un golpe al acuerdo nuclear firmado por Irán con el Grupo 5+1 y una muestra de que EEUU no respeta los acuerdos internacionales que suscribe.

***

La noticia que sigue procede del portal informativo iraní PressTV:

Título: Iran draws red line on missile program

Texto: Iranian officials have lined up to underline the country’s push to buttress missile capabilities after reports that the US administration planned new sanctions on the Islamic Republic in spite of a nuclear accord.

Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan said on Friday Iran will “forcefully continue boosting its missile capabilities within the framework of its defense policies.”

Dehqan’s remarks came in response to President Hassan Rouhani’s letter, ordering stepped-up production of missiles after reports that the US was preparing fresh sanctions on international companies and individuals in Iran.

“In view of America’s recent hostile steps and the esteemed President (Hassan Rouhani)’s emphasis, we will increase the speed and scope of our missile capabilities,” Dehqan said.

US officials claim the new sanctions are in line with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the nuclear agreement, and the Treasury Department can impose new sanctions on Iran over its missile development.

Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei has made it clear that Iran would consider any new sanctions a breach of the JCPOA.

In an October letter to President Rouhani, outlining his conditional approval of the JCPOA, the Leader said that in case of a violation, "the government would be obliged to take necessary measures and halt JCPOA activities."

On Friday, Dehqan said, “Iran’s missile capabilities have never been the subject of negotiations with the Americans and will never be.”

“Iran’s defense power is a guarantee for security and stability in the region,” he added.

Iran tested a conventional missile in October, prompting several politicians in the US to call for fresh sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

Senior nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi said the test did not violate the July nuclear accord.

“There is a clear difference between the JCPOA issue and the missile test and the missile test is not a breach of the JCPOA in any way,” he told the national television on Thursday night.

Araqchi said President Rouhani’s letter indicated that Iran’s missile program is not negotiable.

Deputy commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Gen. Hossein Salami said Iran will accelerate expanding its missile capabilities.

“The Iranian nation should know that our missile depots and long tunnels are filled with missiles ready for launch,” he told worshipers before Friday Prayers in Tehran.

Salami reiterated IRGC’s denial of a rocket test near US warships in the Strait of Hormuz.

“We tell the Americans we are so powerful, strong, brave and realistic that if we launched a missile, we would publicly announce it,” he said.

“The Americans must know that our tactics are a function of our strategies and we will not engage in any blind action. Whether they are scared or worried is not our business,” Salami added.

On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal said the White House had delayed plans to slap new sanctions on Iran but the measures remained on the table.

A senior Iranian politician, Ali Akbar Velayati, said Tehran would respond to new US sanctions.

“This measure by the American government and stepped-up sanctions will adversely affect the Islamic Republic of Iran’s good will but it will not go unanswered by the state officials,” he said.

***

Finalmente, leemos en el sitio web Moon of Alabama:

Título: Iran Fends Off Childish New Sanction Threats

Texto: Last years agreement over Iran's nuclear program could have cleared the way to better relations between the U.S. and Iran. Better relation could lead to cooperation in solving conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Yemen.

But the U.S. is not willing to go there. It is trying to keep Iran hostile even with the nuclear issue solved.

Just follow recent headlines:

Dec 9 - US official: Iran tested another ballistic missile in Nov.

The test occurred Nov. 21, according to the official, coming on top of an Oct. 10 test Iran confirmed at the time.

Dec 28 - Iran ships 25,000lb of low-enriched uranium to Russia as part of nuclear deal

“I am pleased to report that we have seen important indications of significant progress towards Iran completing its key nuclear commitments under the deal,” the US secretary of state, John Kerry, said.

Dec 30 - U.S. preparing missile sanctions against Iran

Dec 30 - US says Iran launched 'provocative' rocket test near ships

Iran fulfills the nuclear deal and ships out enriched Uranium. It thereby gives away its meager means to even produce one nuclear weapon. This is immediately followed by a hostile move from the U.S. together with some nonsense propaganda over small fireworks in the Gulf, the Persian Gulf.

Iran immediately reacted to these crazy moves.

Dec 31 - Iran's IRGC denies firing rockets near U.S. warship in Persian Gulf

Dec 31 - Iran Denounces U.S. Sanctions Over Missiles, Saying It Will Build More

Israel, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Pakistan and the U.S. all have ballistic missiles that can hit Iran. Why should Iran not have a capability to deter them with its own ballistic missile force? Given that Iran has no nuclear weapons program there is no sound reason to deny it conventional missile capabilities. China, Russia and the Europeans accept that and will prevent any UN sanctions over the issue.

Only after Iran made it clear that it will not take part in the childish games the Obama administration wanted to play did the administration retract.

Jan 1 - White House Said To Delay Sanctions On Iran After Tehran Retaliates

Duh! Why make the threat in the first place when it was clear from the onset that it would be a bad move?

Tally this up as other own goal the Obama administration inflicted onto itself.

Who came up with the crazy idea of sanctioning Iran over harmless ballistic missile tests? Why do this at a time, just after Iran shipped out its Uranium, that make it look like intended sabotage of the nuclear deal? The deal with Iran is the only major foreign policy success the Obama administration ever had. Why endanger this legacy?

It will be interesting to read and compare the self serving memoirs of Obama administration officials when their time in office is over. My perception is that Obama is completely disinterested in policies. That Susan Rice, his National Security Adviser, has the retarded mindset of a junior highschool brat. That the neolibcons at the State Department run circles around a hapless John Kerry. And that the Pentagon, CentCom and the CIA are all running the own tunnel vision policies without any regard of a bigger national strategy.

Unfortunately there is little hop that the next administration will be any better.